Odds On Value?
 

Testing a strategy with odds on favourites for the win and place, I am testing whether getting on early will be profitable. Here are the selections for today:

Date Track Race Tab Horse Win Place
21/07/2024 Curragh 1 8 Red Letter $1.66 $1.12
21/07/2024 Curragh 6 4 Jackie Oh $1.90 $1.30
21/07/2024 Stratford 5 2 Brave Knight $1.36 $1.12
21/07/2024 Stratford 8 1 Ronnies Rules $1.53 $1.10
21/07/2024 Newton Abbot 1 2 Golden Path $1.61 $1.20

Lucky I took best odds guaranteed as many of them drifted.
Here are the results (hope it formats okay)

Selections 5 Win S/R 60.00% Win Return $5.15 Win Profit $0.15 Win POT 3.00%
Winners 3 Place S/R 60.00% Place Return $3.34 Place Profit -$1.66 Place POT -33.20%
Placings 3

Just the one selection for today:

22/07/2024 Cartmel 3 9 Jolie Coeur Allen $1.72 $1.12

Jolie Coeur Allen ran 6th after blowing out to $2.10 :(

Selections 6 Win S/R 50.00% Win Return $5.15 Win Profit -$0.85 Win POT -14.17%
Winners 3 Place S/R 50.00% Place Return $3.34 Place Profit -$2.66 Place POT -44.33%
Placings 3

Tonights selections:

23/07/2024 Lingfield 8 7 Rich Pulls Pitch $1.83 $1.40
23/07/2024 Musselburgh 5 2 Union Island $1.52 $1.22
23/07/2024 Ballinrobe 8 1 Base Of Fire $1.83 $1.25
23/07/2024 Wolverhampton 1 1 Take A Pull $1.66 $1.30

Cumulative total results:

Selections 10 Win S/R 50.00% Win Return $8.20 Win Profit -$1.80 Win POT -18.00%
Winners 5 Place S/R 60.00% Place Return $7.26 Place Profit -$2.74 Place POT -27.40%
Placings 6

Only down 1.80 units so far.

Catterick 1 5 Easy Peeler $1.83 $1.36
Naas 7 3 Power Under Me $1.83 $1.33
Salisbury 3 1 Dream Voyage $1.44 $1.06
Salisbury 6 7 Godsend $1.72 $1.16

Cumulative total results:

Selections 14 Win S/R 64.29% Win Return $15.10 Win Profit $1.10 Win POT 7.86%
Winners 9 Place S/R 71.43% Place Return $12.17 Place Profit -$1.83 Place POT -13.07%
Placings 10

Finally in the green for the win.
The strike rate is fairly low for the odds at this stage, so I would expect a further upturn in results overall.

Selections for tonight:

Sandown 2 10 Ruling Court $1.66 $1.16
Worcester 5 3 I'm Ravenous $1.50 $1.12
Leopardstown 2 2 Bedtime Story $1.11 $1.02
Newbury 2 3 Glistening $1.80 $1.20

Lost a llittle last night:

Results
Selections 18 Win S/R 61.11% Win Return $17.87 Win Profit -$0.13 Win POT -0.72%
Winners 11 Place S/R 77.78% Place Return $16.67 Place Profit -$1.33 Place POT -7.39%
Placings 14

Quite a few tonight:

Uttoxeter 1 1 Guard Duty $1.90 $1.12
Uttoxeter 2 1 Boyles Hill $1.80 $1.20
Uttoxeter 5 2 Laser Focus $1.80 $1.30
Ascot 2 9 Tactician $1.72 $1.14
Kilbeggan 1 2 Tonaghneave Well $1.90 $1.40
Thirsk 2 5 Griselda $1.72 $1.16
Thirsk 4 1 Yaajooz $1.90 $1.36
Cork 6 1 Cill Mocheallog $1.72 $1.07
York 5 7 Ejaabiyah $1.72 $1.18

Results:

Selections 27 Win S/R 51.85% Win Return $23.57 Win Profit -$3.43 Win POT -12.70%
Winners 14 Place S/R 74.07% Place Return $24.05 Place Profit -$2.95 Place POT -10.93%
Placings 20

There are no qualifying selections for tonight.

Selections for tonight:

Uttoxeter 6 8 Tregele $1.61 $1.18
Pontefract 5 9 Retracement $1.33 $1.05

Results:

Selections 29 Win S/R 55.17% Win Return $26.51 Win Profit -$2.49 Win POT -8.59%
Winners 16 Place S/R 75.86% Place Return $26.28 Place Profit -$2.72 Place POT -9.38%
Placings 22

Selections for tonight:

Ayr	1 	5 	Weissmuller	$1.57	$1.10

Galway	3 	5 	Truth Be Told	$1.72	$1.14

Windsor	3 	4 	Chorus	$1.57	$1.10

Windsor	4 	4 	Elmonjed	$1.83	$1.22

Wolverhampton	2 	2 	Beauty Nation	$1.36	$1.06

Wolverhampton	3 	1 	Lady Wingalong	$1.61	$1.16

Wolverhampton	7 	10 	Standbackandlook	$1.90	$1.25

Bad day yesterday:

Results:

Selections	36	Win S/R	50.00%	Win Return	$29.98	Win Profit	-$6.02	Win POT	-16.72%

Winners	18	Place S/R	75.00%	Place Return	$32.07	Place Profit	-$3.93	Place POT	-10.92%

Placings	27

Selections for tonight:

Goodwood	4 	4 	Kyprios	$1.44	$1.18

Yarmouth	1 	5 	Twilight Jazz	$1.90	$1.25

Yarmouth	6 	3 	Sir Rodneyredblood	$1.83	$1.33

Beverley	1 	2 	Lakers	$1.72	$1.28

Lingfield	2 	1 	Hampden	$1.83	$1.36

Ffos Las	6 	8 	Godsend	$1.83	$1.22

Another bad day, the win strike rate is way below expected odds:

Selections	42	Win S/R	47.62%	Win Return	$33.42	Win Profit	-$8.58	Win POT	-20.43%

Winners	20	Place S/R	76.19%	Place Return	$38.33	Place Profit	-$3.67	Place POT	-8.74%

Placings	32

Just one selection tonight:

Leicester	6 	1 	Ten Pounds	$1.12	$1.04

Results

Selections	43	Win S/R	48.84%	Win Return	$34.54	Win Profit	-$8.46	Win POT	-19.67%

Winners	21	Place S/R	76.74%	Place Return	$39.37	Place Profit	-$3.63	Place POT	-8.44%

Placings	33

Selections for tonight:

Goodwood	3 	1 	Jan Brueghel	$1.80	$1.28

Galway	8 	12 	Vicar Street	$1.83	$1.18

Epsom Downs	2 	3 	Parole Dóro	$1.61	$1.22

Epsom Downs	6 	2 	Macanudo	$1.83	$1.22

Looks like the Forum curse is alive and well Chrome?

Results for 1/08

Selections	46	Win S/R	50.00%	Win Return	$37.95	Win Profit	-$8.05	Win POT	-17.50%

Winners	23	Place S/R	76.09%	Place Return	$41.87	Place Profit	-$4.13	Place POT	-8.98%

Placings	35								

Sure is!

Selections for tonight:

Galway	3 	2 	Puppet Master	$1.80	$1.33

Galway	4 	4 	Thequietman	$1.80	$1.22

Galway	8 	3 	Cameletta Vega	$1.83	$1.28

Newmarket	3 	1 	Desert Flower	$1.20	$1.06

Thirsk	5 	7 	Thunder Run	$1.83	$1.22

Doncaster	3 	5 	Winston's Tipple	$1.50	$1.12

Windsor	2 	4 	Reservado	$1.83	$1.20

Hamilton	1 	1 	Temper Trap	$1.83	$1.36

Cumulative results:

Selections	54	Win S/R	48.15%	Win Return	$42.83	Win Profit	-$11.17	Win POT	-20.69%

Winners	26	Place S/R	75.93%	Place Return	$49.32	Place Profit	-$4.68	Place POT	-8.67%

Placings	41

Just one selection tonight:

Haydock	1 	4 	Solomon	$1.90	$1.22

Total Results:

Selections	55	Win S/R	49.09%	Win Return	$45.03	Win Profit	-$9.97	Win POT	-18.13%

Winners	27	Place S/R	76.36%	Place Return	$50.54	Place Profit	-$4.46	Place POT	-8.11%

Placings	42

Tonight's selections:

Cork	1 	2 	Aurora Vega	$1.14	$1.03

Cork	6 	5 	Saint Sam	$1.28	$1.11

Cork	8 	8 	King Peak	$1.90	$1.20

Naas	1 	2 	Firebird	$1.14	$1.03

Naas	6 	17 	Heavens Gate	$1.66	$1.22

Ripon	2 	6 	Caribbean Wind	$1.50	$1.07

Running Total:

Selections	61	Win S/R	52.46%	Win Return	$51.91	Win Profit	-$9.09	Win POT	-14.90%

Winners	32	Place S/R	78.69%	Place Return	$57.20	Place Profit	-$3.80	Place POT	-6.23%

Placings	48

Selections for tonight:

Ffos Las	2 	1 	Bold Impact	$1.61	$1.14

Ffos Las	3 	4 	Fine Interview	$1.44	$1.14

Roscommon	2 	4 	Caman Eileen	$1.57	$1.18

Chelmsford City	4 	4 	Green Icon	$1.44	$1.11

Results:

Selections	65	Win S/R	52.31%	Win Return	$54.79	Win Profit	-$10.21	Win POT	-15.71%

Winners	34	Place S/R	78.46%	Place Return	$60.59	Place Profit	-$4.41	Place POT	-6.78%

Placings	51								

Selections for tonight:

Pontefract	3 	3 	Godsend	$1.36	$1.00

Sligo	3 	1 	Rebel Diamond	$1.72	$1.12

Kempton	3 	2 	Arabian Light	$1.30	$1.05

Kempton	4 	7 	Sword	$1.50	$1.08

Kempton	5 	2 	Sea Just In Time	$1.83	$1.16

Kempton	7 	1 	Heathcliff	$1.66	$1.18

Yarmouth	3 	2 	Northern Ruler	$1.80	$1.30

Yarmouth	4 	2 	Clever Currency	$1.90	$1.33

The win strike rate is well below what it should be given the average odds.
The whole point of this exercise was to see if taking early prices was better than closing prices, which it seems not to be the case so far. I'll keep posting to 100 selections and make that my final case.

Results:

Selections	74	Win S/R	52.70%	Win Return	$63.64	Win Profit	-$10.36	Win POT	-14.00%

Winners	39	Place S/R	87.84%	Place Return	$74.04	Place Profit	$0.04	Place POT	0.05%

Placings	65

Selections for tonight:

Brighton	2 	2 	Praetorian	$1.12	$1.00

Sligo	5 	2 	Plontier	$1.57	$1.14

Sligo	7 	13 	Surfin Usa	$1.83	$1.22

Results:

Selections	76	Win S/R	53.95%	Win Return	$66.76	Win Profit	-$9.24	Win POT	-12.16%

Winners	41	Place S/R	89.47%	Place Return	$77.40	Place Profit	$1.40	Place POT	1.84%

Placings	68								

Selections for tonight:

Thirsk	2 	3 	Mae Amor	$1.61	$1.18

Thirsk	5 	3 	Quietness	$1.72	$1.10

Musselburgh	1 	1 	Evening Saigon	$1.80	$1.30

Tipperary	4 	7 	January	$1.66	$1.10

Tipperary	6 	2 	Longbourn	$1.61	$1.18

Wexford	7 	3 	Hey Sunshine	$1.83	$1.18

Haydock	2 	3 	Hawksbill	$1.36	$1.00

Results were poor last night:

Selections	83	Win S/R	53.01%	Win Return	$71.66	Win Profit	-$11.34	Win POT	-13.66%

Winners	44	Place S/R	89.16%	Place Return	$83.96	Place Profit	$0.96	Place POT	1.15%

Placings	74

Selections for tonight:

Curragh	1 	3 	Delacroix	$1.44	$1.11

Curragh	3 	1 	Ballet Slippers	$1.80	$1.18

Curragh	6 	4 	Whistlejacket	$1.90	$1.30

Haydock	2 	2 	Anmaat	$1.80	$1.30

Kilbeggan	4 	5 	Run For Oscar	$1.44	$1.18

Lingfield	3 	2 	Blessed Star	$1.90	$1.36

Ayr	1 	2 	Bob Mali	$1.90	$1.18