Ya gotta put 'em in.
 

I am finding out that if an animal has a chance of finishing in the first 4 , then you gotta put it in.
The problem is that if you put too many animals in , then the return is very tiny and the potential for Profit is lessened.
But that is countered by the increase in Strike rate which does wonders for shattered nerves.

A better idea is to take an Exotic that requires less positions to be filled.
The bonus here is that , although the dividend will be smaller , it is countered by the fact that you will have a greater percentage of the dividend if wagering the same amount.

Another good idea is not to put all your eggs into one basket.
It needs to be allowed for all possible circumstances that can realistically happen , and wager accordingly.

This is a bit like my new way of selecting runners for the quaddie, at the moment my idea is to rate a race then eliminate anything rated higher than 50/1.

Then i will average the rating for the remaining runners then select any runner lower than the average.

The MEADOWS Race 3

4 SHE AIN'T LATE $3.7
6 MEPUNGA MELACHI $4.2
1 JIMI KRAKCORN $5.4
7 NOVA VITE $7.3
3 BIG STUD $17
8 IMANI BALE $19
2 DYNA ALIVIA $20
10 SHIRAZ REEF Res. $50

4,6,1,7 - 4,6,1,7 - 4,6,1,7,3,8,2 - 4,6,1,7,3,8,2
This is an example of simply too many animals with chances of figuring.
The best approach would be to narrow down to the Exacta
4,6,1,7 - 4,6,1,7 is still too wide though so I suggest this

4,6 - 4,6 for $1.50
4,6 - 1,7 for $1

Outlay $7

If this is working for you then go for it.
Perhaps you could also consider adding up the percentages , starting from the top selection , until you reach say 80% or so.Or maybe 66%
Probably end up with the same thing.

Problems could arise when you have an Odds On.
With your approach Shaun , you end up taking the Favourite blonk.
If this animal fails and you get the 3 other legs , you feel sick.
Because these are the quaddies what pay huge.

A better approach might be just to use an Excel program where you input all your prices into the program , and it spits out the chances of every possible combination.
I have done this , but found it impractical to bet the wagers into groups of permutations.

Here is a template attached to see what I mean

That's an interesting idea, might look in to that one.

Do so Shaun.
I'm sure if you look at the Macros , you can modify to suit more runners.
Its about purchasing the most probable combinations overall.


The MEADOWS Race 1

8 LONG GULLY BOB $3.5
4 SMART INTENTION $3.9
3 TANIA TWO SHOES $8
1 MISTER LAQUINTA $11.5
6 EDITH BALE $12
7 BARLEY BALE $12.5
2 MINI MITCH $15
5 RIPABUY $60

8,4 - 8,4,3,1,6,7.... another example of simply too many animals with chances of figuring.
Exactas are
8,4 - 8,4,3,1,6,7,2 which is simply too many combinations to be profitable.
Unless there is a decent Overlay about either of the 2 top selections , please that GOD allow me to be capable of watching these animals to go around without me.

The MEADOWS Race 2

6 CRONOS BALE $4.1
3 FOREVER STRONG $4.3
4 COME ON RODGE $6.7
8 ULTRA COOL $7.2
2 CAPTAINS MOUNT $12
1 HARBOUR ROSE $16
7 STRATEGIC LASS $20
9 RAID THE BANK Res. $33

Infinite possibilities here.
But there is an excellent chance that one of the top 2 selections will start as an Overlay , particularly the top selection.
The trouble is they both start Overlays so perhaps would be better to stay out in that case.
The problems will be caused by Overbetting on Come On Rodge.

The MEADOWS Race 5

3 LEKTRA JOHNSON $2.9
2 GODSEND $5
8 PROVEN IMPALA $5.2
7 LEKTRA EXPRESS $7.7
1 GLENDA BALE $10
6 DYNA GALA $40

The more they win , the better the price
Probably safer to get what you can get about the top selection to win rather than suck it and see with the Exotics.

TRARALGON Race 7

6 RED NORM $3.8
8 RED SOLE $7
4 SCHERZINGER $7.8
3 PURE RAMPAGE $8.8
7 MOHAWK MAGPIE $9.4
1 SCHWARTZ GIRL $10
2 LANBROOK ARCHIE $14
5 ARVO'S STEFAN $14.2

Dash for Cash 298 metres.
top selection should win , but GOD only knows the placings.

The MEADOWS Race 6

6 LADY GREY $4
7 DINO FERRARI $6
1 BLACK JACA $7
3 DON'S FANTASY $8
9 HURLEE Res. $10
2 ADELLE BALE $11
5 SISCO TURBO $12
4 VAGABOND DIAMOND $20

yuk

TRARALGON Race 5

7 DUDE RANCHER $2
2 DESTINI WARRIOR $4.7
4 BIG BLUE ROOSTER $8.3
8 PADDY'S MISS $12
3 FLAMING PADDY $25
1 DAWN PRINCESS $40
6 SMURF'S ZANDRA $50

So simple on paper and expect profits here

7 - 2,4,8 - 2,4,8 - 2,4,8,3,1
Probably best to go the Trifecta here for a Unit
and the Flexi4 for $3 worth
Here's a saver f4 for $2 worth
7,2 - 7,2 - 4,8 - 4,8,3,1

Lady Grey?
Fear she may have seen better days!

Black Jaca salutes,
And I'm off to Maccas

LG

TRARALGON Race 8

1 KANSAS TURNPIKE $3
4 CLOAK OF GOLD $5
3 PURE STEALTH $7
8 AXELS $7
2 I'M FOOLING $8.5
7 FAT WALLET $16

make that #9 Hurlee and you may enjoy a better meal.

Good luck

Yeah - not a bad find.
The problem here is the start of the race is just before a bend.
If an animal from out there is slow it can ease back and hopefully get safely to the rails.
This animal is quick , and I feel there is a little too many quick beginners in the race to allow it to cross in time safely.
Thats the sort of thing that Computer Programs can't identify.
And thats why it takes me half an hour to do a Race.

Good Luck with it though , will be an Overlay and I will have it in my Quinellas for sure.

Thanks for the pointers moeee.

Yes I think it has a good chance although it's one of those that only quality if I'm desperate for a bet, passing a couple of criteria only.

My only genuine selections for The Med. are,

20:20 4 The Meadows 10 CALL ME CHEA 1.17
20:20 4 The Meadows 4 IMA GEISHA G 2.50

21:42 8 The Meadows 2 BARDOT BALE 2.80

Whether they do any better? Who Knows, at the moment I'm doing very well for the place, which is somewhat of a reversal from the early stages, they usually miss by " " but it's enough.

Good luck

well there is only one more to pass actually and it's the long term, profit return on the track and distance, which doesn't mean it never wins or places.
Thought I make it a bit clearer.
Good luck

I think I may know what you are doing now Lomaca.
It probably would work just as well on harness.

TRARALGON Race 6

4 USAIN OCTANE $2.1
7 TANGO MAN $6.9
2 SELECT OCTANE $9.2
6 WADELOCK GALO $11.6
9 MISTER SCULL Res. $16.7
5 DR. ROSLYN $19.9
3 PATTIE PHEVOS $23.9
8 BELLEMIE $36.5

and thats that :(
how pathetic am I?

Whoa there moeee!!!

I would never ever even think about betting on harness racing, and I have my reasons.

As to know what I'm doing? Good on you.
I'm using publicly available, free info anyone can do it, won't make a scrap of difference to prices.

Most people want to be spoon fed, that's why I stopped posting, give them an idea without the the minute details, an idea that is actually working, and I guarantee you a punter will make a mess of it and blame you for his losses.

Good luck

At Tral. I only had race 5 #4 race 6 #8 and that's all

Big Overlay - Big Loss :(

It just keeps on happening :(

RACE 4

4 - 1 - 6 for $2
4 - 1 - 6,2 for $4 worth

4 - 1 - 6 - 2 for $1
4 - 1 - 6,2 - 6,2 for $2 worth

Meadows Race 8
 

split odds
Box 1st Split Rating Rank
1 $23.47 7
2 $17.78 6
3 $44.94 8
4 $4.22 1
5 $6.42 4
6 $4.67 3
7 $17.39 5
8 $4.65 2

1 30.735
2 30.519
3 30.573
4 30.384
5 30.624
6 30.385
7 30.519
8 30.519
With the inside dog pushing off the track at the start and the 2 & 3 heading for the rails, they could be held up early.
I prefer the 4 - 6 - 2 - 8

I went 7 instead of 8

it was a toss up on the outside dogs,

looked like the #6 fought the #5 on the turn when they both had the leader, but that's racing, Another reason to be on 1-4 at the first turn

race 9

1 STAGGER $1.6
8 PETER ROCKET $10
4 WHY NOT KING $12
6 DAVEN BALE $17.5
2 ELDIS BALE $17.8
7 DODGE THE BATTEN $20
3 ALL INN BRADY $30
5 LEVER FOOTPRINT $70

oh boy - race 10

7 BATTINA BALE $4.9
1 DOUBLE DECOY $5.0
4 DYNA CARI $5.2
5 MAHOGANY BOY $7.4
8 BEAUTIFUL NOISE $7.4
6 WHERE'S ARCHIE $12.8
3 MISS CHAPARAL $25.2
2 LEKTRA ICE $57.8

the last

1 PURE INSTINCT $3.9
8 MAX A ZILLION $5.1
3 FIERY $5.7
6 SONIC ROCKET $6.9
2 EMRYST BALE $7.6
7 MISS MARKWELL $15.1
9 WHIPSTICK GIRL Res. $29.8