Some Simple Systems
 

System #1

Pre-post favourite
Last start winner in the last 21 days
Won or placed (1,2,3) at least twice in last three starts
Run within 100 metres of today’s distance in at least one of its last two starts

Back any fav 1st or 2nd up

Hey Party, you would know this one. Published by your fav mag back in the 90,s and was called 50% HOT POTS for HOT SHOTS not sure.

enjay.

One for enjay

System #2

Current leader state jockey premiership
More than one ride, horse with highest win strike rate (this rules out maidens & first starters)
Leader not riding, try 2nd on the jockey table
Not riding, try 3rd on the jockey table, otherwise no bet
Potentially one bet per state

This one is quite interesting. One of the side effects of this system is you will be on trainers who are in form. Generally the top 3 jockeys ride for certain stables and if the trainer is out of form that jockey will not be in the top 3.

I tried something similar on Sat at Sandown with Ben Thompson, with nice results.

Yes I can kinda remember having a go at it but it was no where near 50% S/R, had a good run for a while but then the wheels fell of as usual.

maiden races with no first starters
ignore any horse not having at least third start after spell
ignore any horse that didn’t run second or third at least twice in their last three starts
ignore any horse that didn’t finish within 3 lengths from the winner twice in those three starts
back the shortest in the market

Top 6 Bookies OPENING QUOTE .

Bet ALL horses @ $7 +

Staking

Bet to return 4 % of your betting Bank on each selection.

i.e Bank $5000

4 % = $200

$7.50 Bet $27 / Return $202.50

etc etc

race has 7 starters or less
race has mix of both male & female

back the favourite, if:
price no shorter than $2.50
is male
previous run <= 14 days

I ran this idea through on 3 different days:

Day 1 - 3 bets for $4.5 win all up. 66% strike rate.
Day 2 - 10 bets for $14.8 win all up. 60% strike rate.
Day 3 - 14 bets for $19.2 win all up. 50% strike rate.

I did give all favourites less than $2 a miss. I usually steer away from favourite backing (I like the longshots!) - but this idea seems to have something behind it!

Top Weight

Fav

Won LS

Here is the last 7 days for this system, flat stake using unitab prices to a mac of 3.30

Runners 92
Av Price 2.31
Win 41
Win% 44.57%
Av W/Price 2.19
Outlay 2300.00
Ruturn 2242.50
Profit ($57.50)
P.O.T -2.50%

FYI Results over 2017

687 Bets
262 Winners @ 38.1% SR
Return $588.40 @ 14.4% LOT for NSW prices

Regards

won LS by 1.5 lengths or more

The only filter I would suggest is include ALL Meetings.

That was its original contention.

Though when I did place a substantial amount on a few years ago I included .

Same Jockey

Same Distance .

Cheers

had at least 6 starts
win strike rate of at least 25%
place strike rate of at least 40%
won at the distance or within 100 metres under or over
placed at today’s track
more than one selection back the horse with the best win strike rate

ignore races < than 1200 metres, 2yo or hurdle or steeple

back the favourite if,
not first up
ran 1st 2nd 3rd or 4th at its last start
not going back in distance from its previous run
not going up in distance more than 200 metres from its previous run

that's it

wouldn't necessarily dismiss if on pace that run

Track Condition : Heavy

TAB: 10 - 24

API Rank: 1 - 1

Unitab Rank: 100 - 98

would also give consideration fav 3rd up

8 or less runners.

Fav @the jump.

What you sometimes find is although the favourites get up in smaller fields more regularly, the average dividend is a lot less making the overall profit is the same.

I am now looking at laying favs for the place if under 1.40

Good luck, its ************ hard work trying to get them to show a profit, I cant get the penny to drop here. I can break even but just cant get them onto the good side. Like everything, you have a nice run of lay wins, then a string of 20 odd get up and burst your bubble taking any profit along with it.


Definitely not impossible, and i'll be envious if you can crack the code!
Have spent far to many hours trying myself.

Surely not thorns. You already have the code.

Yes good point, I guess I should have said, standing individually to turn a profit is hard work.

If i could get my hands on some reliable betfair data i could better back test it, using Tab prices isn't the same even in the place market.

Reliable is the key word here Shaun. For some reason betfair data contains prices for horses that were scratched, and not just late scratchings way too often.

There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The SP doesn't usually match the price that the horse was actually bet at ..... it's simply the 'last price matched'. If you look under the LHS tab on Betfair you can see the span of matching.

Betfair SP isn't th last priced matched. Its a completely different figure (although might be close). Betfair has a specific algorithmn to it to match all remaining money when the market goes in play.

But before that the prices on betfair exchange can be quite wild and it can range significantly.

Quite right UB, my apogolies .... what I was trying to refer to was the price that Betfair includes in its' results data .... not the Betfair SP which is a totally different animal as you point out.

Nasty hit yesterday, Morp. R5 #17 .... yuck!!

Hopefully not too bad a hit ?

I got through yesterday with a clean sheet of a profit on every race I bet into which resulted in a good profit. My issue at the moment is greyhounds causing me losses all over the place.

System #3

As per UBET site:

Rating = 100
Form includes "C"
That's it
Bet 2x3

Seems to be just the one selection today
Wagga R5 Ticked Off

Keep them coming Woody.

I love these "Spot Plays"

Cheers.

Wagga R5-3 Flying Cyril $8.06,whilst not 100 rater was actually the Top Rater @96

Onya fellers.

Whatever the system, take into account the track condition, especially racing on all-weather racing surfaces & rain affected tracks

And don't forget the speed map, always a good starting point

Especially the form already shown at the particular track they're racing at