sp of winners
 

below is the average winning price of the winners for all gallops meetings covered by tatts bet plus a few others just covered by BF over the past 3 years.
for me it is quite interesting as betting wise i have been suffering over the past 6 months or so because i tend to bet mainly on outsiders and my 2013 results are much worse than 2012.

When i extracted these numbers i now see that 2012 average winner paid 8.14 and 2013 paid 7.75. thus the profit ( after you take out the $1 wage has gone from 7.14 to 6.75 - a reduction of 39c or 5.14 % POINTS- when you are only making 10% POINTS - 5.14% POINTS is significant

In the last 6 months of 2013 the average was 6.67 so it dropped even a bit further. In January 2014 - which as been a disaster the average is 6.42 .

maybe its the start of a long term trend that punters are improving - only time will tell.

these figures are consistent with ones i had in the early 90's so as someone said somewhere else not much has changed really.




date …. races …. av price
2014 YTD …. 2054 …. $7.42
Jan2014 …. 2054 …. $7.42
…. ….
total 2013 …. 31140 …. $7.75
Dec2013 …. 2899 …. $7.74
Nov2013 …. 3114 …. $7.36
Oct2013 …. 3099 …. $7.55
Jan2013 …. 2343 …. $7.71
Feb2013 …. 1998 …. $7.75
Mar2013 …. 2255 …. $7.62
Apr2013 …. 2264 …. $7.76
May2013 …. 2421 …. $8.02
Jun2013 …. 2162 …. $8.31
Jul2013 …. 2774 …. $7.74
Aug2013 …. 2924 …. $7.69
Sep2013 …. 2887 …. $7.93
…. ….
total 2012 …. 26464 …. $8.14
Jan2012 …. 2341 …. $7.79
Feb2012 …. 2026 …. $8.06
Mar2012 …. 2226 …. $8.40
Apr2012 …. 2166 …. $8.16
May2012 …. 2246 …. $8.86
Jun2012 …. 2250 …. $8.53
Jul2012 …. 2025 …. $8.93
Aug2012 …. 2019 …. $7.91
Sep2012 …. 2197 …. $8.08
Oct2012 …. 2249 …. $7.90
Nov2012 …. 2354 …. $7.78
Dec2012 …. 2365 …. $7.45
…. ….
total 2011 …. 20867 …. $8.35
Apr2011 …. 2300 …. $7.99
May2011 …. 2471 …. $8.54
Jun2011 …. 2362 …. $8.74
Jul2011 …. 2273 …. $8.61
Aug2011 …. 2074 …. $8.21
Sep2011 …. 2216 …. $8.55
Oct2011 …. 2435 …. $8.44
Nov2011 …. 2279 …. $8.03
Dec2011 …. 2457 …. $8.02
Grand Total …. 80525 …. $8.03

across countries it looks like this :

Australia .. 45621 .. $7.80
France .. 117 .. $8.50
Hong Kong .. 208 .. $10.03
New Zealand .. 8265 .. $8.61
Singapore .. 2722 .. $8.68
South Africa .. 7934 .. $9.30
UAE .. 10 .. $7.78
United Kingdom .. 13771 .. $7.24

Grand Total 80525 .. $8.03

Point of interest would be if you took the >$30 winners out. Although they should not distort the results too much. These figures are consistent to 3rd -4th fav. Thanks for posting this.

after you take out the $1 wage

how do you mean aussie?

LG

the dividend is say $7.50 for a $1 wager- thus the profit is 6.50.

Are these amounts the average winning price of your system winners or overall? I would have thought for all races everywhere that the average winning price would be a lot lower than that.

got it. thought you were deducting 'a wage' as you go.

LG

If those are BF figures then the intro of the turnover tax certainly would have had an impact, but tbh it would surprise if the overall tote figures had changed to such an extent, that would be a worry.

not much change really - apart from being harder to read

i wish

overall tab dividends on the winners- yes everybody says that ( they thought they would be shorter) - but it has been near the same number for at least 20 years - probably longer

i have read recently that the corporates have been blowing up about the number of favourites that won during spring having cost them profits - maybe these figures reflect that in a way.

Initially it was alarming. Effectively <$30 is the first 6 favs. >$30 is the rest. Thus 2.9% winners above 6th rank in underperforming. Showing that the ratings are getting better

same goes for harness average divs. everyone thinks it's a lot lower than it actually is. All they remember is the $1.1 wunner but there are a lot of higher ones too.

Looking at our data (the whole lot) from 5/3/2010 the picture that emerges supports something I have been saying all along. The market is getting smarter all the time. This is the analysis of NSW TOTE average prices of all horses by Year and Quarters. Gone down from $8.30 to $7.70 over 4 years



As a side note I have never analysed 603,000 + horses. It was both great to see that Axis can do it without bogging down (took 9 min) and note that no one ever would have systems that would total even a quarter of those selections so I am happy to reaffirm that Axis is system testing 'capacity safe' for the next 100 years or more.:)

Good stuff Michal, very interesting, wonder if it is just part of a longer cycle or as has been suggested, the market is getting smarter.

It is more efficiency. Probably due to computer use. The handicapper is getting better. I read somewhere that the average margin is down to 1.3 lengths from 1.7. This was put down to better resources for the handicapper. There may be some coming back from the EF, and or maturing of the official ratings

this reduction in the dividends I think it could also be caused by "weight carried" compression.

Under that scenario the average horse more likely to be weighted out of the contest in favour of the more favoured, better bred and higher quality animal..

This is caused on the one hand major owners and trainers squawking when their horse has to carry 60kgs or more and at the other end jockeys blowing up when they have to get down to 54kg or less.


Or it could just be rolling statistics and move out just as easily.

Time will tell.

Could it be the TAB's taking out a higher percentage from the pool thereby lowering the odds?

I'll give you one reason, when the TAB dividend looks to be the same or larger than the betfair odds, I know of a number of punters who pound those odds.
Also with the best tote product, by it's very nature, it trims the excess prices when the bookies lay off.

i don't think that has increased in the last couple of years.
it may have - i am not sure.

if it has - well - yes it could explain it.

true - but that has been the case for many years and is a "constant".

Market maturing, volumes increasing and velocity too, micro niches exploited, more markets and further segmentation within each sporting event etc?

What doesn't seem to change much is lack of innovation.. I just don't see much of it happening from the corporates - tabs and can't understand it. Surely with such huge competition and now big overseas players taking a gobble out of the market, why can't they differentiate themselves on product - approach - mission - philosophy? they all seem to copy each other more or less.

Not talking 'best of 3 totes' type of stuff, more like 'a game changer' that makes a sit up and gives one player a huge advantage(to our benefit) with others to follow. Any suggestions gentlemen??

LG

just speaking horse racing - the biggest game changers they could do is
1. specialise in horse racing only and

2. operate as a corporate bookmaker and actually make a book and take on all comers and let them on for whatever they liked.

Extremely risky and they would have to up their form analysis and intelligence network - but done properly they could blow the other corporates out of the water because of their branch network and position in the market. I mean for example where have you seen a betting machine for centrebet - the TAB has them all over the place and they are quite easy to use.


At the moment they are a just a pari-mutuel and a price follower.

Tabs' are nuts for not having setup their own exchange to compete with BF which would probably enable them to tap into Honkers & other Asian markets.

True Aussie, but there are some heavy hitters who can't trade since the commission levy and Premium Charges were introduced so are tackling the TABs v Betfair.
Aside from that, my studies of Betfair have had massive changes in the SP pricing accuracy due to traders leaving, this has transitioned across to the TABs. The last couple of years has seen a 3% lay edge (after commission) or more, dwindle to no edge at all (after commission), laying the whole field.

Ok fair enough

Sorry for the typo...my studies of Betfair SP have not had massive changes lol
my studies of Betfair SP have shown massive changes.

Oops.

Thought there was a little 'God Complex' going on there for a minute;)

My observation, without proof, is that there are a lot more small fields now. This would reduce avge divies on its own.
True or false?

Hi Speedy,

I can understand why one would make this assumption however the recent evidence does not support your observation. The average field size hasn't changed over the most recent two racing seasons. Discounting abnormally low sample sizes it has remained at 8 runners.

There has been though a drop in average dividend across all runners roughly in line with some previous posts depending on what measurement method you apply.

Hi Paul,
Noticed that myself.

These are truly interesting stats, however, the average by itself does not give the complete statistical picture and so I would be very grateful if the standard deviation for each year would also be provided. A shrinking s.d. would confirm some of the suggestions made for the shrinking averages.