Place Betting
 

Hi guys,
Trialling live a place betting strategy which should be profitable using a bookie.
I can't tell you who the bookie is nor the guts of the strategy, I'll just post the tips and the prices I got and see how we go, could be extremely profitable or go down the gurgler, but I have high hopes for this one.
I can tell you it has nothing to do with form and I have scanned every race to make selections.

Geelong
R3 #13 $1.40
R4 #14 $1.75
R5 #2 $1.70
R6 #4 $1.30
R7 #5 $1.65
R8 #6 $1.55

Gosford
R7 #6 $2.05

Cairns
R5 #7 $1.90
R8 #9 $1.80

Albany
R7 #8 $1.65

So yesterday I finished -.70 unit loss. No need to panic and pretty happy it went so well. One day does not reflect performance.

Quite a lot of selections for today:

Moonee Valley
R4 #8 $1.65
R5 #11 $1.95
R7 #9 $1.60

Canterbury
R2 #9 $1.95
R5 #2 $1.65
R6 #4 $1.70
R7 #4 $1.85
R8 #10 $1.90

Doomben
R3 #9 $2.00
R6 #10 $1.60
R7 #12 $1.28
R8 #3 $2.10

Port Lincoln
R1 #4 $1.22
R3 #5 $1.70
R6 #7 $2.00
R7 #4 $1.45

Esperance
R1 #12 $2.00
R2 #8 $1.80
R5 #11 $1.75
R6 #6 $2.10
R7 #2 $1.95

Gosford
R2 #7 $2.25
R5 #3 $1.28
R6 #1 $1.45

Moe
R1 #3 $1.65
R2 #1 $1.65
R4 #14 $1.75
R5 #2 $1.65
R7 #6 $1.60
R8 #5 $1.55

Canberra
R4 #1 $1.44
R6 #2 $1.70
R8 #6 $1.75

Darwin
R1 #4 $1.65

Devonport
R5 #5 $1.36
R6 #7 $2.25
R8 #3 $1.65

Couple of scratchings and deductions also so the tally is -0.91 of a unit, was looking promising early on today, but still to early to tell.

Well I was up to 40 bets I had posted and I accidentally closed the tab, I had four tabs running :(
So I'm not going to list them all because the bookie doesn't have an option to export the unsettled bets!
There are 56 bets in total for tomorrow, so I'll post the total outcome after the last bet.
I'll try and post the bets if have time after.
Should take me to over 100 bets, so tomorrow will be interesting.

Well after today the running total is 6.08 units loss. There were a number of scratchings and other horse scratchings with pretty harsh deductions for the place. I haven't even had the time to run this through a spreadsheet yet, but I'm going to continue because today was a very bad day and hope it can turn around, any amendments to the selection process, I'll post here.

Tomorrows Selections:

Werribee
R2 #6 $1.50
R3 #11 $1.50
R6 #14 $2.15
R8 #11 $2.15

Nowra
R3 #7 $1.60
R4 #6 $1.50

Sunshine Coast
R7 #7 $1.75
R8 #5 $1.60

Murray Bridge
R2 #4 $1.75
R5 #1 $1.75
R6 #4 $1.85
R7 #2 $2.25

Bunbury
R3 #1 $1.40
R4 #2 $1.80
R6 #5 $1.44
R7 #2 $1.55
R8 #1 $2.15

Traralgon
R4 #3 $1.50
R5 #8 $1.60
R7 #2 $1.60
R8 #2 $1.45

Hawkesbury
R3 #2 $1.30
R4 #8 $1.80
R7 #6 $1.70

Hi Chrome, nice to see some activity here, as you may remember I have always had an interest in place betting ,in fact my bread and butter is still going strong hovering around 4% but I cant get it any better than that, and taking in the horror runs it is still very hard to beat the boredom.

This one of yours looks much more interesting , keep it coming

Today I managed to crawl back from -6.05 units loss to -2.66 units loss. Looking at it, it's definitely the deductions from late scratchings that is holding me back. The actual deductions are quite unfair and very high.

Pretty quiet day today with 10 bets for the place:

Tuncurry
R1 #2 $1.80
R2 #5 $1.55
R3 #8 $1.65
R4 #1 $1.65
R5 #1 $1.55
R6 #8 $1.75
R7 #4 $2.05
R8 #2 $1.70

Orange
R5 #14 $1.65
R7 #4 $1.90

Hi Partypooper.
I was wondering if you were still around on this forum. Yes I remember you were an avid place bettor. Hope you're well mate.

Todays results: Total loss -3.55 units

Hi Chrome, Yes I still check the forum out , but of course its only a shadow now, not sure why that happened? but anyway as far as place betting is concerned ,there is is still some amazing strike rates but the returns are are very meagre. Even accounting for best tote (when available) AND /OR ENHANCED ODDS, ITS VERY DIFFICULT TO GET INTO PROFIT. Though not impossible, just takes a lot of patience.

Hamilton
R6 #4 $2.20
R8 #4 $2.45

Tamworth
R3 #5 $2.10
R4 #7 $1.75
R5 #6 $2.95
R7 #2 $1.90

Kilcoy
R3 #7 $1.85
R5 #3 $1.75
R6 #11 $1.95
R7 #9 $1.85

Wagga
R2 #6 $1.65
R3 #5 $3.00
R5 #2 $1.75
R6 #3 $1.65

I am using mathematical formula Party, which should return a profit on the maths, but that damn rule 4 is killing me. I can't post selections say after 11am because I am working on the database at that time. So I have to do it the night before. I'm going to run a bit of a comparison using Betfair SP because there's very little liquidity in the BSP the night before and I'm giving away my edge.

After today's races the total loss is -2.86 units, the worst running total was -6.05 units. So this is something that has very little risk / reward ratio, bit I'm still not in profit....yet!

There is another forum around that a lot of people went to, but I can tell you there's a lot of sarcasm and general rubbish, and it's actually very hard to navigate. I like this format much more. Before there was a lot of harsh moderation here and people weren't allowed to to create hotmail or google accounts, this has been changed now.

21 selections today

Mornington
R4 #3 $1.40
R8 #1 $1.84

Wyong
R2 #1 $1.60
R3 #2 $1.67
R4 #6 $1.27
R5 #2 $2.03
R7 #8 $1.50

Strathalbyn
R7 #2 $1.85

Pinjarra
R1 #12 $1.55
R2 #12 $1.50
R3 #1 $1.65
R4 #2 $1.60
R5 #9 $1.28
R6 #7 $1.33
R7 #13 $2.10

Launceston
R1 #6 $1.60
R2 #3 $1.65
R4 #7 $1.80
R5 #8 $1.55
R6 #3 $1.55
R9 #1 $1.85

Hi Chrome, Yeah, not sure what the agenda was there but I got restricted/banned or whatever and had no idea why, like I couldn't decipher a single thing ???? totally bamboozled, so just gave up! a shame cos I really enjoyed the banter

I use Discord now, there are 2 mains one's but mostly just punters, not system ideas people, plus am on the BF Quants forum but think they are a step above me but a great place to learn from.

That other place killed themselves when they got greedy and started to charge people to use the forum.

Today didn't go so well running total -6.94 units.

I did a quick comparison using BFSP and the liquidity just isn't there for midweeks, in fact it was almost always much lower than the prices I got, so that's that.

21 selections for tomorrow:

Caulfield
R4 #1 $1.70
R4 #5 $1.95
R6 #11 $1.40
R7 #6 $2.10
R8 #12 $1.70

Kembla Grange
R4 #5 $1.33
R5 #9 $1.33
R6 #3 $1.33
R7 #3 $2.95

Bowen R6 #1 $1.44

Albany
R2 #1 $1.44
R6 #5 $1.55
R7 #5 $1.70

Kyneton
R1 #2 $1.55
R2 #9 $1.80
R3 #1 $1.60
R5 #5 $1.95
R6 #4 $1.36
R7 #7 $1.65
R8 #3 $1.40
R9 #1 $1.25

Well today was very disappointing with a bit of a washout.
The running total now stands at -12.23 units loss :(

Selections today 34

Moonee Valley
R2 #2 $1.60
R3 $7 $2.05

Canterbury
R2 #12 $1.75
R7 #2 $1.65
R8 #5 #3.00

Geelong
R1 #9 $1.65
R2 #8 $1.22
R3 #5 $2.85
R4 #9 $1.60
R5 #9 $1.75
R6 #7 $1.60
R7 #1 $1.60
R8 #4 $1.65

Murwillumbah
R6 #12 $1.75
R7 #11 $1.36
R8 #5 $1.70

Ipswich
R4 #10 $1.85
R5 #9 $1.85
R7 #5 $2.85
R8 #8 $2.15

Morphettville
R3 #7 $1.40
R5 #1 $1.55
R6 #1 $3.00
R7 #1 $1.80
R8 #10 $2.85

Goulburn
R6 #1 $1.80

Warren
R3 #6 $3.20
R4 #6 $1.65
R5 #1 $3.20
R6 #9 $3.10

Cranbourne
R2 #4 $1.25
R7 #9 $1.50

Sunshine Coast
R4 #4 $2.95
R5 #22 $1.45

The running total now stands at -11.42 units loss
There must be a mossie outbreak, there were so many scratchings :D

With a marathon of 67 bets today, looking to turn things around:

Caulfield
R2 #6 $2.35
R4 #8 $1.30
R5 #1 $1.50
R9 #9 $1.80
R10 #8 $2.80

Randwick
R5 #1 $1.28
R6 #10 $1.45
R7 #11 $2.15
R8 #11 $1.90
R9 #3 $1.70
R10 #10 $2.05

Eagle Farm
R1 #5 $1.50
R2 #10 $1.55
R3 #9 $1.90
R4 #9 $1.65
R6 #7 $1.75
R7 #1 $1.55
R8 #9 $1.65
R9 #4 $1.30

Gawler
R5 #2 $1.20
R6 #2 $1.95
R7 #5 $1.85
R8 #6 $1.50
R9 #6 $1.80

Ascot
R2 #3 $1.85
R3 #2 $1.55
R4 #2 $1.75
R5 #2 $1.70
R6 #10 $1.90
R7 #7 $1.80
R8 #13 $2.05
R9 #10 $3.00

Colac
R3 #11 $1.70
R4 #1 $1.70
R5 #8 $1.55
R6 #10 $1.75
R7 #6 $2.10
R8 #8 $1.70

Coffs Harbour
R1 #2 $1.33
R2 #7 $1.80
R3 #1 $1.90
R4 #12 $2.15
R5 #2 $2.25
R6 #9 $2.35

Moree
R2 #7 $1.75
R4 #1 $1.85
R5 #1 $1.40
R6 #1 $1.70

Albury
R1 #4 $1.58
R3 #7 $1.55
R4 #3 $1.60
R5 #2 $1.90
R6 #3 $1.75
R7 #3 $2.25

Newcastle
R1 #8 $1.80
R6 #4 $1.80
R7 #6 $1.44

Mackay
R2 #16 $1.55

Benalla
R3 #8 $1.85
R5 #11 $2.10
R6 #1 $1.65

Darwin
R5 #1 $1.70

Esperance
R4 #1 $1.60
R5 #2 $1.50
R6 #5 $2.05
R7 #3 $1.60

Toowoomba
R1 #6 $1.60

The running total now stands at -4.17 units loss, so we recouped 7.25 units today. Still not in the black yet.

Today's selections:

Bendigo
R7 #7 $1.70
R8 #11 $1.35

Coonamble
R6 #10 $1.60
R7 # 5 $1.60

Sunshine Coast
R4 #1 $1.33
R6 #8 $1.45
R9 #7 $2.05
R10 #13 $2.00

Bordertown
R2 #4 $1.25
R4 #8 $1.55
R6 #9 $1.75
R7 #7 $1.65
R8 #3 $1.60

Geraldton
R3 #5 $1.85
R5 #4 $1.90
R6 #5 $1.85

Hobart
R1 #1 $1.55
R2 #10 $1.80
R3 #1 $1.44
R4 #3 $1.75
R7 #1 $1.33
R8 #2 $1.50
R9 #9 $1.50

Moruya
R3 #8 $1.25
R5 #2 $1.22
R6 #5 $1.75
R7 #5 $1.60
R8 #8 $1.85

Horsham
R2 #14 $1.75
R3 #2 $1.50
R4 #6 $1.65
R5 #1 $1.80
R6 #7 $1.80
R7 #1 $1.90

Alice Springs
R2 #2 $1.75
R4 #1 $1.80

Hi Chrome, are the prices what you have taken, and why in the middle of the night???

Yes these are the fixed prices I have taken with a bookie, It takes me ages to work out if there is an advantage for me via spreadsheet, I work on my database in the day and evening, that's why I post so late.

I finished -10.82 units loss total.

Quiet day for selections today

Bathurst
R3 #2 $1.70
R4 #1 $1.65
R6 #4 $1.75
R7 #7 $1.85

Kempsey
R2 #11 $1.44
R5 #7 $1.40
R6 #3 $1.75
R7 #6 $1.80

I finished -14.25 units loss total

Selections for today:

Terang
R1 #4 $1.65
R3 #12 $1.65
R4 #14 $1.55
R6 #7 $1.80
R8 #3 $1.44

Scone
R1 #4 $1.28
R2 #3 $2.30
R3 #1 $1.50
R4 #3 $2.00
R5 #8 $1.75
R7 #7 $2.15

I finished -16.14 units loss total, all is not lost as I'm doing a review on a spreadsheet with various filters. But for today I'll continue the current strategy.

Selections for today:
Flemington
R4 #9 $2.00
R5 #10 $1.95
R6 #5 $1.80
R7 #3 $1.90

Warwick Farm
R1 #4 $1.46
R5 #4 $2.15
R7 #5 $1.85

Doomben
R8 #4 $1.60

Port Lincoln
R3 #8 $1.75
R4 #2 $1.95
R5 #6 $1.50
R6 #5 $1.65
R7 #5 $2.00
R8 #5 $2.05
R9 #2 $2.30

Ascot
R1 #8 $1.75
R2 #14 $1.50
R3 #4 $1.70
R4 #5 $1.80
R5 #7 $2.10
R6 #4 $1.28
R7 #12 $2.00
R8 #1 $1.30

Queanbeyan
R4 #2 $1.55
R5 #2 $1.80
R7 #5 $1.65

I'm sure you'll get there Chrome , this is just a minor dose of the "Forum Curse" it happened every single time I posted any idea, GRRRR!

Yes, the forum curse has hit hard PP.

I finished the day -18.46 units loss cumulative total.

Selections for today:

Seymour
R3 #8 $1.90
R4 #7 $1.55
R5 #10 $1.85
R6 #11 $2.10
R7 #3 $1.85
R8 #9 $2.05

Gosford
R3 #4 $1.65
R5 #1 $1.60
R6 #3 $1.70
R7 #4 $2.15

Rockhampton
R4 #1 $1.50

Bunbury
R4 #1 $1.85
R6 #3 $1.75
R7 #2 $1.50

I finished the day -22.62 units loss cumulative total.

Selections for today:

Yarra Valley
R1 #8 $1.75
R2 #3 $1.65
R3 #1 $1.45
R4 #3 $1.28
R5 #2 $1.75
R6 #4 $1.80
R7 #1 $1.70
R8 #8 $2.05
R9 #1 $1.70

Wagga
R2 #11 $1.70
R4 #10 $1.75
R5 #2 $1.65
R6 #5 $1.65
R7 #1 $1.55
R8 #3 $1.90

Mackay
R6 #6 $1.44
R8 #8 $1.70

Oakbank
R5 #3 $1.90
R6 #4 $2.20
R7 #1 $2.20

Lismore
R2 #12 $1.80
R3 #1 $1.85
R4 #4 $1.80
R5 #9 $1.75
R6 #9 $1.40
R7 #7 $2.10
R8 #1 $2.35

Devonport
R2 #10 $1.45
R5 #1 $2.05
R6 #2 $1.65
R7 #9 $1.50

Cranbourne
R1 #6 $1.70
R5 #5 $1.75
R7 #2 $1.60
R8 #1 $1.95

Tomorrow's selections will be late as I'm going out.