My 75% plays
 

Hey guys,

here are the plays today for my 75% thing on my ratings that was discussed in the other thread. Note i'm just testing these and while I might be on some, i won't be betting on all. Ill post my top 2 raters for each race and any with YES written to them are plays.

Caulfield - Race 1

No.
5 A Time For Julia
1 Villa Splendido YES

Caulfield - Race 4

No.
3 Cameo
12 Summerbliss YES

Caulfield - Race 5

No.
4 Galah
5 King's Rose YES

Caulfield - Race 7

No.
5 Lightinthenite YES
12 Waterford Hill

Randwick - Race 2

No.
2 Magita YES
9 Secluded

Randwick - Race 3

No.
9 Moriarty
8 Merlin Mustang YES

Randwick - Race 4

No.
7 Snitsky
4 Upshot YES

Randwick - Race 5

No.
5 Jolie Bay YES
4 Ichihara YES

Eagle Farm - Race 7

No.
6 Transporter YES
2 Grey Assignment YES

Eagle Farm - Race 8

No.
11 Memorable Moment YES
14 Rodrigeuz

Morphettville - Race 3

No.
7 Le Roi YES
2 Ring Me Not

Ascot - Race 2

No.
2 Modello YES
4 Flag Officer YES

Ascot - Race 5

No.
3 Global Flirt YES
1 Ten Degrees

Ascot - Race 6

No.
5 Travinator YES
7 Watermans Bay YES

Ascot - Race 8

No.
2 Texan YES
13 Kerrific

Ascot - Race 9

No.
5 Iseethingsyoudon't YES
13 Jaja Saab

Are the YES ones the top raters ? ie what makes one selection a play out of the two ?

Thanks for posting these. Will be interesting to see how they go.

BTW off to a great start with Caulfield Race 1. Winner and 4th.

forgot to add this earlier:

Morphettville - Race 5

No.
8 Classy Chloe YES
4 The Eighth Maker

The selections have so far mostly been putting in a very good effort in most races. There has been 6 winners from 10 races so far.

Unfortunately the odds haven't been too great :( But still the strike rate is very good. Its close to breakeven on best tote by my figures.

had quite a few 2nds as well i think, i'll have to go back and check over them all carefully though.

Great Work today

Winner at BR8. 16.70 on Tatts.

You can't show a loss today now. so anymore wins are a bonus.

Hi evajb001,

Has been a masterclass today,
Thanks for the journey to date!

Cheers LG

A successful day largely due to the big winner in the last at Eagle Farm however would've been in profit anyway. There were 25 bets all up with 11 winners for a 44% strike rate. The combined POT was 86.40%.

With 25 $1 bets, it would have been in profit by $21.60. I'll continue to post the plays for a while and we'll see if it remains in profit.

Well done evajb001,

You laid the cards down and they came up trumps.

Crazy game this. A man such as yourself with the investment/measured POT type angle should do very well indeed!

Best of luck mate, in your case I don't think you should need it!

A good day's work.
May I ask how far back your testing goes?

1 April 2012 is when I started the backtesting, 2066 races have been backtested so far.

Plays for today, i'll only list the horses that are being bet on today:

Gosford - Race 8

No.
2 Oakfield Honour
3 Slivovitz

Seymour - Race 7

No.
3 Callanish
5 Lord Of Brazil

Seymour - Race 8

No.
4 Your Honour

Seymour - Race 9

No.
13 Shihabi
4 Euphoric Realm

Naracoorte - Race 6

No.
1 Thorny Devil

Evajb001,

Looking good again today. Also jsut a heads up I sent you an email.

My figures show 4 horses have run for a $5.60 return on tatts so far.

4 winners from 8 bets today for 50% SR and a 84% POT

For the 2 days of posting the plays on here so far we have a 44% SR and an 83% POT. Will post again tomorrow morning if I get the time. Note the returns are based on Tatts odds.

I actually bet the plays myself today with Top Tote, $5 on my top rater $3 on any 2nd rater plays. $34 Outlay for $73.60 return or a POT of 116% myself. This was largely due to 3 winners being top rater so more dollars on them and also the following odds differentials:

Callanish (Tatts $2.20 - Top Tote $2.30)
Your Honour (Tatts $3.40 - Top Tote $3.50)
Shihabi (Tatts $3.80 - Top Tote $4.60)
Slivovitz (Tatts $5.30 - Top Tote $7.20)

very nice wins this weekend

No plays today gents due to limited race quality and field sizes.

Smart way to operate evajb001. Today's a good day to review and relax.

Have a cracker one and all!

Today's plays people:

Mackay - Race 6

No.
1 Blazing Lion

Scone - Race 6

No.
2 Texan Lad
4 Kartini

Kyneton - Race 7

No.
13 Prince Hussar

Bit unlucky that Pince Hussar didn't get up in our first play running 2nd. Just had a winner on Texan Lad and Kartini ran 3rd so all plays today have ran a place. If Blazing Lion can get up it will be a very successful day, otherwise we will be looking at a small LOT today but nothing concerning.

As it stands at the moment on a POT of 3% betting all plays flat stakes, however with my $5 and $3 staking i'm on POT of 19% currently. lets go Blazing Lion!!

Texan Lad is my horse, he was always going to have a big run first up today :)

I like horses first up over 1100.
Good luck.

Small LOT for the day, will update with relevant overall stats etc once I get home. Nothing i'm concerned about though, still think what i've got in place has its merit's and i'll be continuining to bet based on my $5 and $3 staking.

Will reply to your email tonight as well UB, been busy of late.

When you get time evajb001 is fine.

A small LOT is not a big deal compared to the nice POT's you made the last few days.

Ok so heres the update so far:

Today:
1 Winner from 4 bets (25% SR)
Straight Staking 28% LOT
$5/$3 Staking 19% LOT

Overall:
42% Strike Rate (16 Winners 38 Bets)
Straight Staking 72% POT
$5/$3 Staking 87% POT (+$142.20 in 3 days)

Note using Top Tote or something similar increases the POT and obviously profit quite a bit. Will do my best to have the plays posted over the next 5 days however will be in melbourne and adelaide for work/personal reasons.

Doing well evajb001, I hope it continues for you mate.

Congratulations evajb1000 for actually monitoring the results.
Very few do - including me.
Although in my case I don't actually know my wagers until I see the available Odds.
I have tried prior , but it just don't work for me.
Barely works as it is!!!

With your single selections, are you staking them at $5?

Cheers LG

Every top rater selection is staked at $5, and 2nd rater selections that occur as well are staked at $3 due to the reduced POT and SR on these selections in my backtesting.

Cheers moeee, at one stage earlier this year i was super disciplined monitoring my bets on all sports (NBA, NHL, Horses) and was up a significant amount of money because i was tightly monitoring my money management, got too relaxed about it started missing days and chase betting etc etc and ended up losing quite a bit although was still in profit and took out $1k after starting with $100.

Monitoring bets i think is a must for almost all who want to make a profit long term unless your personality/mentality is a lot better then most others and you can stay disciplined without monitoring your bankroll closely.

Here we are for today gents, will do my best to have plays posted over the next 4 days but may be hard while i'm away. Either way I can update with results when I get back as long as people can take me at my word for what transpired while I was away.

Eagle Farm - Race 4

No.
3 Ticket To Dream
6 Dream'n'ignite

Eagle Farm - Race 6

No.
7 Typhoon Red

Eagle Farm - Race 8

No.
6 Haitchque

Warwick Farm - Race 5

No.
9 Binalong Road

Warwick Farm - Race 6

No.
2 Blazing Dragon

Warwick Farm - Race 7

No.
5 Atsuta
4 A Real Prince

Geelong - Race 4

No.
1 Under The Eiffel
3 Essington

Geelong - Race 6

No.
7 Our Desert Warrior

Geelong - Race 9

No.
2 New York
5 Sabres

Ascot - Race 2

No.
1 Helena Miss

Ascot - Race 5

No.
1 Zero To Sixty
2 The Cavalieri

thanks for posting them.

A couple of winners so far but the odds today are unfortunately terrible.
A lot of seconds too. Still a few races to go.

Finishing up with a flurry of winners.

Hey all, sorry haven't had a chance to post today. One play has already ran at ballarat, it was race 5, spin the bottle won and was top rater as well. The horse that ran second was also my 2nd rater and a bet as well.

There are still 2 plays remaining that haven't ran:

Geraldton race 4, number 1.

Geraldton race 7, number 9.

I gotta run will try get tomorrow and Saturday's bets on here earlier. With the ballarat winner today is already in profit at a POT of almost 100%. will have a full break down of stats when I'm back home.

You done the business, my son!

Cheers LG

PS hopefully you are also getting work done and/or having a bit of a 'jolly'??

Hi your lordship,

Had a good day on the punt today more then making up for yesterday. I haven't done the sums but the POT today would be over 100%.

I'm at the melb aquarium at the moment enjoying a brew as a part of our conference :) anyway better get back to it.

Enjoy all!

A champion effort from a champion punter / bloke

Enjoy the moment.

LG

Hey gents,

Sporting an aching head today but my friend has Passed on the plays for today. Note first number is top rater and any second numbers are obviously second rater. Let's have another highly profitable day.

MV = Moonee Valley

MV race 1 - no. 1 & 4
MV race 4 - no. 6 & 9
MV race 5 - no. 2 & 4
MV race 6 - no. 1
MV race 7 - no. 2

Again will update stats upon my return, will do my best to get tomorrows plays posted but can't promise anything as will have limited time in Adelaide.

Thanks for posting them again. Enjoy your conference.

Hi guys,

Got these from my mate this morning should be all correct best of luck.

Moonee Valley - Race 3
No.
3
Midnight Martini
YES
5
Destiny's Kiss
**
Moonee Valley - Race 4
No.
7
Cavalry Rose
6
Essay Raider
YES
Moonee Valley - Race 5
No.
1
It's A Dundeel
YES
2
Viking Star
YES
Moonee Valley - Race 7
**
No.
**
2
Solzhenitsyn
**
1
Rangirangdoo
YES
**
**
Moonee Valley - Race 8
**
No.
**
12
Pierro
YES
**
9
Ocean Park
**
**
Doomben - Race 3
**
No.
**
5
Run Royal Run
YES
**
4
Eureka Jack
**
**
**
Doomben - Race 7
**
No.
**
2
Beseech
**
9
Flying Jet
YES
**
**
Rosehill - Race 4
**
No.
**
1
Rebel Dane
**
6
Specific Choice
YES
**
**
Rosehill - Race 6
**
No.
**
1
Malavio
YES
**
8
Coup Ay Tee
**
**
Gold Coast - Race 7
**
No.
**
1
Speeding Dragon
YES
**
2
Currency Boy
YES
**
**
Morphettville Pk - Race 2
**
No.
**
6
Eclair Spargo
YES
**
1
Alcohol
**
**
Morphettville Pk - Race 3
**
No.
**
1
Effcee
**
3
Little Less Lip
YES
**
**
Morphettville Pk - Race 6
**
No.
**
7
Danish Spy
**
1
La Praline
YES
**
**
Ascot - Race 4
**
No.
**
2
Global Flirt
YES
**
1
Verdello Blue
**
**
Ascot - Race 7
**
No.
**
11
Luke's Luck
YES
**
5
Westriver Kevydonn
**
**
Ascot - Race 8
**
No.
**
11
Checkpoint
**
7
Solsay
YES

Sorry for the poor format, posting on my phone. If the top horse has 'YES' next to it, it's a bet. If the second horse does as well it's a bet. If only the second horse does both are still a bet.

thanks again for posting them.

so far a good day of placings for seconds and thirds.