When In Doubt
 

“When In Doubt go for the topweight!”

Not sure where / when I first heard that saying but it’s got me out of trouble many a time.



So, don’t mind these toppies tomorrow ;)

Canterbury – R4 Altomic; R7 Triple Dee
Murray Bridge – R7 Jest For Fun
Sandown – R6 Evil Master
Ipswich – R6 Monte Cavallo; R7 Two Dancers; R8 British Storm
Belmont – R2 Foxaround; R3 Peppis Pride; R4 Dee Picked; R5 Friars Touch; R7 Woodlore

Ipswich R3 H1 Don’t Tell Anna

Ipswich
 

Race 6 (1) MONTE CAVALLO

WELTERS
 

I REMEMBER MY DAD SAYING THAT TO ME A LONG TIME AGO. IT WAS ONLY IN WELTERS

When In Doubt
 

1st - Triple Dee, Jest For Fun, Two Dancers, Foxaround, Friars Touch
2nd - Altomic
3rd - Dee Picked
4th - Monte Cavallo, Woodlore
SCR - British Storm

not too bad a day considering the lack of welters :)

4TH :(

Townsville Thur
 

Race 3 (1) HOTELIER
Race 5 (1) BACK OF HOUSE
Race 7 (1) SNICK
Race 8 (1) LOOKALANI

not much doubt there stantheman ;)
nice!!

It's supposed to work well with the distance exactly 2400 m (i.e. English Derby distance= 1-1/2 miles, and of course a line was always taken from that race as being the "ultimate"

Also it was mentioned in another thread that the No. 1 in handicaps has a better S/R than it should have in terms of averages (numerically) so the handicapper is better than most of us. So eg. top weight wins 1 race in 5, so a simple method that seems to hold water is take the toppy in handicaps if quoted at $6 or more pre-post,.... check it out

That theory of topweight in a Welter is another myth to be busted.

517 Topweights in Welters

Return $380.60

Loss 136.40 units or 26.38% LOT

There were only two in my database running over exactly 2400m and both lost.

The one's that started at greater than $6.00 on the tote were 278 for a return of $162.20 and loss of 115.80 or 41.65% LOT

NB: Flying Welters not included

MYTH BUSTED

I've long held the suspicion that bookmakers started these myths and sent them around the rings shouting "look there's another one that just won" to perpetuate it.

So far I've busted:

Topweight in a Welter
Horses For Courses
Avoid horses second up
Avoid wet tracks (did you know Fast is the very worst going to make a profit?)
The impact of weight
The impact of time
Track Record breakers
Odds On Look On

To name just a few.

Take all these myths and lay 'em like there's no tomorrow and win big.

The bookies version of the Da Vinci Code - BUSTED ;)

I bet you always wanted to be a policeman when you grew up Chrome.

TOP WEIGHTS IN WELTERS?
 

JUST WANTED TO CLEAR UP THIS SAYING. WHEN I WAS 14 I WAS GOING TO THE RACES WITH MY DAD. WE USED TO GET STAND TICKETS AND I ACTUALLY HAD A FRIEND UP THERE CALLED IAN CRAIG THE RACE CALLER FOR 2KY. EVERY SAT AT WHEN THE RACES WERE ON AT RANDWICK ID ALWAYS HAVE A CHAT TO HIM. VERY FRIENDLY MAN WHO ALWAYS TOOK TIME OUT TO SPEAK TO ME. THE SAYING BACK TOP WEIGHTD IN WELTERS WHEN IN DOUBT MEANS EXACTLY THAT. I NEVER BET THE TOPWEIGHT IN WELTERS IN EVERY RACE EVER!!!! ITS ONLY WHEN I WAS DOING THE FORM AND SY I HAD 2 TO 5 HORSES MARKED OUT FOR A WELTER RACE AND I COULDNT MAKE UP MY MIND IF IT SO HAPPENED THAT ONE OF THOSE HORSES WAS A TOPWEIGHT WELL THEN I WOULD BACK THE TOPPY, AND THEN IN THAT CIRCUMSTANCE!!!

REMEMBER WHEN IN DOUBT BACK THE TOPWEIGHT DOES NOT MEAN BACK THE TOP WEIGHT IN EVERY WELTER!!!!

JUST WANTED TO CLEAR THAT UP

REGARDS BREADMAN

GOOD LUCK AND GOOD PUNTING

Hehe, I just love busting myths.

Breadman, I understand what you're saying and under those circumstances, perhaps it would work, but with such a poor loss on turnover, looking elsewhere might be better. Topweights win very few Welters.

The fact is, that no matter how I tweaked the rules Topweights came out worst of all. Even when favourite, they have a much worse strike rate than favourites overall which gives a big indication.

As for Ian Craig, he does know a bit about punting, in fact, one of his sayings actually works very well with filters.

MUSWELLBROOK RACE 7
 

(1) MAIN GAME EW!

..narrow win but got there!

Like the toppy COPPER PENNY!

Others for multies CAMBRIC, CIRCUS MAXIMUS & AWESOME FLASH

Copper Penny finished 3rd (made profit on EW) also jagged nice tri with Cambric winning from Circus Maximus :)

Eagle Farm 3
 

Like the toppy BECKS!

Others for multies GENERALS COMMAND, GENERAL PATTON, BITABIFF & MYSTIKOS

Kempsey 3 (1) Hole In One
Very consistent.

SSCOAST
R6-1 GIRL OF THE WEST

KALGOORLIE
R5-1 UNIVERSAL SEARCH

Chrome, I have no doubt that your figures are correct, as such a simple plan taking in every race ,every day of the week borders on,....... no is impossible. The only thing that seems to sort em out better is "handicaps only" Metro only, and using 6-1 PRE-POST quote. (I use WA Tab-Form) but I guess still a loser if you backed em all, may it should be kept as one of those things "when in doubt" as Breadman suggests, or "when" at the races.

Just as a matter of interest this produced 14 bets yesterday (5 states) for 3 wins, Sharp Aunty $6.80, Jackass $6, and Impatient Star $8, not counting the hurdle winner and a bit close with Imprisoned

thanx partypooper
 

just a quick thank you for refferring to my comment of WHEN in doubt not every welter. O r for that matter any race. The way I thought the saying went was when you had 3 or 4 horses marked out to win that race and you couldnt make up your mind you then back the top weight. I still remember ian craig saying that on 3 way turf talk. oh my god am i getting old or what!!!
Never been a program that could match that on radio. Oh no what have i done now? maybe a new thread on best radio programs..... hehehe

SR2 PINK DAY 1ST JULY HCP
 

Toppie in this Brisk Joh led them up at Hbury last start over 1600 boxing on gamely for 2nd. Start before just pipped Kens 1400 slow track. Right in this.

Rockhampton R5 H1 King Hunter
Rockhampton R7 H1 Sacred Harmony
Rockhampton R8 H1 Harbour Magic

The thing I love about this forum is when someone says it's impossible to make a profit doing A, B or C, or it's a bad idea, a 1/2 dozen punters will get up and do it.

Natural, with handicapping and selectivity it's of course possible to make a profit on topy's or 2nd top or any other number in races. The thing with topy's worth remembering is that they are often overlooked and consequently are often over their true odds and can be very profitable indeed.

KEMBLA GRANGE Race 6
 

(1) DOUBLE ENTENDRE

Wagga 4 (1) Sweet and Tidy
Looks well placed.

Ipswich race 3 COLE TRICKLE should have won his last start at Rocky & should atone in this!

Sweet & Tidy 2nd 5/1!

CESSNOCK TUES
 

R2 COOL PHANTOM the name says it all :D

R4 LEEWARDS should be ready to fire at 3rd start back

Doomben
 

R4 ANNIGONI

DOOMBEN Race 1
 

(1) SUNDAY ADIEU

DOOMBEN Race 1
 

1st!!

CANTERBURY Race 5
(1) DEVIOUS CHARADE

Rocky 8
 

Not a strong class 2 so the topweight Lang Park might be the way to go especially with the allowance for Brenton Young.

TOWNSVILLE R3
 

(1) CALL A FRIEND.
Great debut this track last start. Deserves to break through & distance ideal tomorrow.

DOOMBEN 1
 

Pommard looks a class above the rest!

BOWRAVILLE R7
 

(1) Future Funds