Favourites in Big Fields
 

Each day, select the non-handicap race with the most runners.

Bet the favourite to win, provided it is the outright favourite. If equal favourites, there is no bet.

This system applies to flat and jumps races equally.

The cdsystems website comments: "There is an old saying: 'the bigger the field the better the favourite' and, as in all old proverbs, there is an element of substance to it - this trial will hopefully prove just how much.

Hey Glenno,

Was this just a general observation or have you run this system through past stats.
If so ,whats the SR, and bank return.

How are you supposed to know who is favourite or whether it is an equal favourite unless you are on course and prepared to bet in the last 15 seconds of betting?

BTW i thought you were going to have 1 thread devoted to your systems

In this system, back only outright favourites, not equal favourites. I don't mind whether it is from the pre-post market, the SP prices or TAB prices.


I am putting the systems in one thread, but I'm putting the older systems on first.

Glenno.

1. Pre post markets as the basis for your assessment of a "favourite" is dangerous. By my observation only about half the newspaper faves actually start favourite.
2. The SP fave is not know until after the race when the SP is actually declared. Know any bookies who let you on after the race?
3. TAB prices fluctuate wildly. The 4th favourite 30 seconds before the jump can start favourite in reality.

I don't see how any accuracy can be attained by any of the above methods.

Morning Glenno and everyone else too!! I have a gut feeling this couldn't be a winner long-term as my own selection methods in large-field set-weight events (ie Derbies and the like) have landed numerous giant upsets with the fav left floundering "behind a wall of horses". However as Atapi DID win the main race (set-weight AND the biggest field) at Caloundra on Saturday, I'm not dismissing it yet. I'll be keeping an eye on it for a while, at least. Only question: do you reckon it applies to Maiden Plates as well? Cheers

It applies to maidens as well, as long as it is a non-handicap race.

6/8/2005

Randwick race 6
Pre-post (Sportsman): Snitzel 3rd $1.40
SP: Snitzel 3rd $1.40

13/8/2005

Moonee Valley race 6
Pre-post: Strikeline 1st $3.60 and $1.40
SP: Strikeline 1st $3.60 and $1.40

20/8/2005

Randwick race 7
Pre-post: Media unplaced
SP: Opportunity unplaced

27/8/2005

Rosehill race 7
Pre-post: Racing to Win 2nd $2.00
SP: Carry On Cutie unplaced

3/9/2005

Flemington race 9
Pre-post: Pretty Penny unplaced
SP: Storm Alert unplaced

10/9/2005

Moonee Valley race 8
Pre-post: Flowerdrum 1st $5.90 and $2.30
SP: Storm Alert unplaced

17/9/2005

Caulfield race 6
Pre-post: Perlin 1st $6.70 and $2.50
SP: Confectioner unplaced

24/9/2005

Randwick race 1
Pre-post: Backstabber unplaced
SP: Mentality 3rd $1.20

Randwick race 5
Pre-post: Dance Hero unplaced
SP: Shania Dane 2nd $1.40

1/10/2005

Flemington race 1
Pre-post: Nadeem unplaced
SP: I Got Chills 1st $4.50 and $1.90

Flemington race 7
Pre-post: Sky Cuddle 1st $5.20 and $1.90
SP: Sky Cuddle 1st $5.20 and $1.90

Flemington race 8
Pre-post: Makybe Diva 1st $2.60 and $1.60
SP: Makybe Diva 1st $2.60 and $1.60

Flemington race 9
Pre-post: Brannigan unplaced
SP: Virage de Fortune unplaced

Results (pre-post selections)
Selections: 13
Wins: 5 (38.46%)
Places: 7 (53.85%)
Win return (SuperTAB): $24.00 (+$11.00 or +84.62%)
Place return (SuperTAB): $13.10 (+$0.10 or +0.77%)

Results (SP selections)
Selections: 13
Wins: 4 (30.77%)
Places: 7 (53.85%)
Win return (SuperTAB): $15.90 (+$2.90 or +22.31%)
Place return (SuperTAB): $10.80 (-$2.20 or -16.92%)

Hi Glenno,
Thanks for the input of that plan .
I have gone over a number of races & it seems to pull a few winners.

I note in the results posted for Flemington 1/10/05 that there are a number of races covered , the largest field to qualify was R8 17 runners-Makbe Diva & R1-17 runners.

The rules states the race with the most runners that is not a Hcp.

So why did you mentioned R9-16 runners & R7-16 runners
Why not add R6-15 runners Serenade Rose $5.00 PP -Won $15.30

Races one, six, eight and nine had 16 runners after scratchings, which was why I have included all of those races. Race five was a non-handicap, but it had 15 runners after scratchings, so it was not included in the results.

interesting glenno, once you have a sound base of results, applying a betting method like the "retirement staking plan" & you could be onto a winner.

also maybe betting "top fluctuation" with one of the bookies couldnt hurt (until they close the account because of all the winnings)

& how about midweek?

That could be an idea. The results I gave were at level stakes using SuperTAB dividends.


I only do Saturday meetings for Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane/Adelaide.

Caulfield race 7 had 12 runners, so the Caulfield race would qualify.

Pre-post: Paratroopers 2nd $2.30
SP: Red Dazzler unplaced