DOGS
 

Can someone please tell me if i place my dog system here or on onother part of the forum, it is a system but it is for trots and dogs, not horses, it might be worth a read !Its been returning some excellant results and after five months i think it might be worth a look to others, should i post it here or in gambling forum ?

anyone

Dingo

Hay Dingboy, i would post it here, i am sure members will not mind
Tapper

Dingoboy
I am still holding my breath in anticipation.
Regards Beton

Umm... I am doubting already. Somebody claiming to have a system for dogs and trots, that doesn't include horses?
What kind of trot races do you bet on? Maybe camels?
Just what bookies bet on these types of races? Do they also accept bets on ferret races?

sorry
 

To all those un believers i am sorry, my adsl has been down for a while, so frustrating, i will post it today or tomorow when i catch up
Cheers

Dingo
not doubting just that you put your hand up and then fell off the face of the Earth.LSB.
Regards Beton

THIS IS IT
 

Ok,

Selections are easy, no gallops, trots and dogs only, no form reading, bet start at 5% of bank, you need acces to unitab or NSW tab, most bets at night !

Firstly let me say that this set up does work and has been working for me for months now, i checked it on paper for months and months every morning before physically placing money on them, started with a bank of 200 and it has done very well.

All i do is take the unitab late mail on each dog race and trots, dont be fooled in taking one of the first or second or third selection as late mail seems to be a slightly higer strike rate, and it normally pays a lot better which brings up the divvy.

We bet it for a place only, we use bhagwans crusher plan, ie 10L,10L,10L,10W@1.5,20w@1.7,30L,30w@1.5,50w@1.8 etc.

Important to have one bank per meeting, i use five banks, any more and you can get mixed up in the heat of the quick races, i mean that the time between races can cause unwanted confussion. The reason i use five banks is so i can watch how the "flow" goes, that is if one of the tipsters late mail is having a bad day (or is wrongly printed which does happen) you can adjust or leave the meeting alone which i have done sometimes.

Follow the late mail for place, dont bet unless there is minimum of eight runners or you miss the third divvy, often the late mail places but it isnt worth the differance in percentages.

It is important to follow each meeting with the crusher plan, you must revert to the base bet when in profit no matter how small, and if its a ten race meeting and you loose your base bet on race eight, STOP there, there is not enough profit in the next too races to cover that last bet loss, you can make the profit on other meetings.

I fell into the trap of betting to big also, i used a principal of every time my bank grew by four times i would then double my start bet, i found that i would not make as much POT as when i was putting two hundred into small pools it would stuff up the dividend, i noted this when i back calculated POT, it dropped dramatically, now my highest bet to start is 20.

I tried the progression after loss system, i tried doubling after loss, then tripple, then all sorts of percentages, although it made money it was unsafe and i blew two banks completely doing this, i have found that regression or flat staking whilst in profit is the safest and that increasing after a winner whislt until in profit the back to base bet is it. It is very safe.

I knocked up a spead sheet which calculates whether or not to increase or revert for next bet, saves calculating each time to see if you are in profit or not, this has five differant meetings so one per meeting.

Some figures:
average bets per night 48
average strike rate late mail 68%, minimum eight runners
average dividend using unitab and NSW tab (must use both for splitting larger bets, ie 50 units with nsw and 50 with NSW or better odds) 1.45
average POT over the last eight months 9.6%

In the last two months, i gave this to two friends who dont punt, i gave them 100 each and they opened an account with nsw only, they dont do it every night (they arent really keen) but both have made really good profits and it proves to me that you dont have to be a guru at punting on these types of animals.

Anyway, i will drop my strides, bend over and take any kick that kickers wish to kick, i will say before anyone wants to burn the idea and or myself that it aint new, its just a combination of a couple of factors, a basic money managemet plan, some common sence and some work.

Hope i havent left anything out, if i did its only miniscule and i will edit if i have, as i said i havent had my connection relaible for three weeks and thats why i havent posted the idea until now.

Please have a look as you might be surprissed, i would like to thank those people on this forum who pointed me in differant directions and showed me differant ways, i might be doing things wrong still but hey, like i said, it works for me and hopefully someone else can get something from it or adjust something to make it work a little better.

Thanks and hope you get something from it

Dingoboy

Hi Dingoboy,

Congratulations on what seems a very sensible and effective plan. Have been back through quite a few meetings and it looks good.

Did notice there was a bit of variability in the tipsters success. Does this 'even out' over time, or is it better to steer clear of the tipster for some venues? I'm presuming (and it is a bit of a presumption) that the tipsters from venue to venue (or state to state?) are the same person(s).

Are the Late Mail on the NSWTab site the same? Maybe they can provide where Late Mail for a particular venue is not to be found on the QTab site?

Again, good work!

hi merriguy
 

Yep,

The late mail is coppied from unitab (i assume) for NSW and vica versa, i found this by flicking from nsw site to unitab and found that unitab being qld would post their tips and late mail first for the "northern states" and then it would appear on nsw.

I have found some safer practices by sticking with qld races with qld tips, and same same for nsw, they seem to do a tad better.

A good way i found is to wait for the late mail on NSW site then print out the whole meeting, thats why i have my five banks, if a tipster had too many the night before when assessing form, it shows up with the number of outs, thats when i drop that meeting.

As for evening its self out, often due to late mail you will get a few 2.3, 2.6 placings, this helps and sometimes i have gone whole meeting with all selections getting places, the only worry is often place div on trots, they are pathetic and if you loose say three in a row and get one up at 1.00, next bet is then increased and you might get the same return again, this is not a good thing and havent worked out a "plan" to overcome it though.

Heaps of bets last night and ended up 18%pot, this is normal as some nights it will be 1%, dont matter much when you are using their money as it does even out, just dont be greedy as ive read 100 times.

Watch what happens now, the tipsters will get a hold of this and start throwing dodgy selections in for late mail(or do they do that already ?)

Cheers
Dingo

Hi again Dingo
 

Thanks for your reply and musings. And congrats on last night.

In the ones I checked over the past few weeks I notice that there are quite a few meetings where nearly all (if not all) Late Mail run a place. There have been others that have performed rather poorly. I guess it would be worthwhile watching out for any consistent, or otherwise, 'tipster'.

I have just re-read the threads on the Crusher plan. To this had not tried it. I don't know if you know of Ausrace. One of the corresoundents there likes to bet the place and maintains his method of staking has only a tiny chance of failing (1 in 10,000). Worth a look at this post and those around it:
http://home.it.net.au/pipermail/aus...ber/036553.html

Good luck for tonight.

Hi dingoboy

I bet a somewhat similar system on dogs, though i make the selections myself. 68% at $1.45 seems pretty good, just a few questions Do u bet at all tracks over all distances, if so do the results at the diff tracks vary? Have u looked into any filtering methods (such as classes of races, diff boxes at diff tracks) that might improve the strike rate a few % and turn it into an even staking plan profit. Also i recomend an IAS account. Will no doubt improve your returns to about $1.48 or so. My system over a long time has returned 70% at $1.50.

If i have time i might research the late mail tips over the weekend and ill give u my feedback on it and see if your system can be improved.

Keep up the good work.

HI Merryguy,
That is very interesting indeed,
I know that probability in run of outs with strike rate of 65-70% would be low, however, if using old mates plan, if you didnt strike a place getter until the 10th progression, and it payed 1.5, you would have done half your bank, $50,if the crusher plan started at 10 units and we didnt stike until tenth bet, outlay would be 100, return at 1.5 =$15, loss $85, well there you go ! says a bit for progressive bets, i will have a look at some past results though, it seems that he just increases his last bet by 50%. There are some good ideas on that forum, i have a look every now and then.
In regards to the poor performing tracks, i think it is mainly on the dogs and i think its due to the tighter bends in the tracks, to this i have enlisted a fellow traddie who happens to own a couple of "teddy" dogs, he is a gooroo on tracks but as im only new into this type of thinking the track "filter" will be added as soon as i find which one(s) are the poor performers, i think one is angle park ? Good stuff but, thanks !
Hi Six goal,
The points you sujest are true, i only have accounts with nsw and qld, i couldnt understand ias and onother forum member pointed out something to me a few months back and i was a little shy of going there,something about directors, however i may look back into that, the two accounts though vary sometimes dramatically with divies and if one possesses a piston finger, adsl and a keen eye, one can left click having prepared two identical bets (one on nsw, one on qld) and wait for the right moment whilst watching fox and press the one with the best divi then usually its OK.
Mate, as for the tracks, same same, i am only new into trots and dogs so i havent got a grasp of the track "bias" yet, although as previous i am looking into it,
One thing i have noticed lately is the sprint races, they are all over the place like a mad womans washing, i will only have a go on them if the selection is in box 1 or 2, eliminating slightly the "crush" factor, i think box 8 altough a good box apparantly is not a good box if a sprint as the puppie doesnt have enough physical time in the race to cross over ?

Its good that you have been having a go on them and doing well, i look forward to your input if you would be so kind.

A quote from my misses'
"i hope you dont turn into one of those old men you see at the dogs wearing those tweed jackets, reading the paper with those funny hats"

Cheers and thanks, good luck

Dingo