Box Quinellas
 

I have been betting quadrellas for the past couple of weeks and am about break-even. I use half the field in every leg so there are many combinations but is well within my budget thanks to flexi-betting.

However, by omitting the pre-post fave and betting the selections in box quinellas have produced a worthwhile profit, and have won almost every day. The strike rate has been almost 40% for the 87 races that I have bet on. And including the pre-post fave has increased it to almost 65% but does not show an acceptable profit. I'll list today's selections, several are not quaddie races, and see how they go...

Warwick Farm
R2 nos. 1, 2, 4, 6, 7 (pre-post fave is no.3)
R3 nos. 4, 5, 6, 7, 11 (no.3)
R5 nos. 2, 6, 7, 8, 9 (no.1)
R6 nos. 1, 2, 7, 8, 11, 13, 16 (no. 3)
R7 nos. 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 13 (no.2)

Townsville
R4 nos. 1, 2, 5, 6, 11 (no.9)
R5 nos. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10 (no.1)
R6 nos. 1, 2, 4, 8, 7, 10 (no.3)
R7 nos. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 12 (no4)
R9 nos. 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 (no.10)

The total outlay is $152

I must be going mad but I can't remember how to work out the cost for a box quinella.

I thought if there were 5 runners, the price would be 5*4 = 20 for $1.
6 runners, 6*5 = 30
7 runners, 7*6 = 42

Now if that were the case with a makeup of :
4 races with 5 runners = 4 * 20 = 80
4 races with 6 runners = 4 * 30 = 120
2 races with 7 runners = 2 * 42 = 84

Total outlay of 284 or 142 for 50 c.....

BJ: Box quinella 5 runners costs $10, eg. 5*4/2. The division by two is because any of the two horse combinations can run 1st or 2nd.

The same 5 runners combination would cost $20 if they were taken as exacta bets.

So I was wrong, but that still makes the total outlay $142?

That's right, I make the outlay $142 based on a $1 unit.

Hi.

My records show there were 2 races of 5 runners = $20
6 races of 6 runners = $90
2 races of 7 runners = $42
Total of $152. Maybe I missed listing a selection?

Yesterday was the worst day since my keeping of records. For an outlay of $152 the return was $104. Hopefully that will be rectified today. Interestingly, there would have been an outlay of $1,360 betting box trifectas for a return of $1,170. Unfortunately I haven't kept any previous records of box trifectas.

Today's selections are:
Grafton
R3 nos. 1, 3, 5, 7, 8 (no.2)
R4 nos. 1, 3, 4, 7, 8 (no.2)
R6 nos. 1, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14 (no.2)
R8 nos. 2, 3, 4, 8, 9 (no.1)
Eagle Farm
R4 nos. 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, 11 (no.4)
R5 nos. 2, 3, 5, 8, 10 (no.1)
R6 nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10 (no.7)
R7 nos. 2, 4, 5, 6, 11 (no.1)
Belmont
R2 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 9 (no.1)
R4 nos. 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 (no.2)
R5 nos. 2, 3, 4, 7, 11 (no.5)


By my calcs the quinella outlay is $142, and the trifecta outlay is $1,080.

Yesterday was a disaster - I will give it one more day. Races from 1,200 to 1,450 have been terrible. Maybe because it's harder to rate horses resuming from a spell as opposed to shorter races. I'm now omitting them.

Today's selections are:
Grafton R2 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8 (no3)
Grafton R8 nos. 1, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12 (no2)
Ipswich R5 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 (no.7)
Ipswich R6 nos. 1, 3, 4, 8, 9 (no.2)
Ipswich R8 nos. 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 (no1)
Northam R7 nos. 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12 (no.3)

Outlay of $80

MG
No offence intended but betting quinellas like that is not the way to go(IMO).I have tried recently to extoll the virtues of betting quinellas to prices,especially at the shorter end of the market,but as no interest was generated I chose not to go on with it.Favs win 30% of all races,those figures have stood the test of time,therefore thats 3 races in every 10 that you cant win before you even start!Boxing like that would mean your s/r would have to be extremely good to stay in profit in the long term,that is in the remaining 7 races out of 10.I would like to make a couple of suggestions,which you can take away and think about or reject completely.
1)Box Quinella 5 selections=$10
Suggestion.........
Pick your strongest selection and make it your banker and couple it with the other 4 runners @ $2.50=$10.
2)Box Quinella 6 runners=$15
Suggestion........
Same deal
Make 1 a banker and couple it with the other 5 runners @$3=$15
As you can no doubt see,if your main selections are sound you will multiply your divvies by 2 or 3 at the same cost as a box.
Betting to prices and a target take out per meeting,not per race is the way to go.
cheers

Angel417
To say favorites win 30% of the time is true but they win up to 80% when their odds pay $1.30 and only 15% at SP price of $5. The trick is to get advantage
Beton

Hi, Angel417.

I've found that in the long run betting to prices will more or less have the same result as level betting PROVIDING there are not too many selections. I noticed this years ago when I was betting at the TAB using Mark Read's ratings for the exotics and the Win. My current records show this has not changed. It only takes one or two large divvies to obtain a daily profit.

With my quinellas, the minimum runners per race is 9 where hopefully the fave is not too short, and as Beton has stated that the longer the price of the fave the lesser chance it has of winning. I am hoping that when the fave does not win or run second then I will get the quinella, and as the fave is often overbet in exotics (especially the quaddie) I am also hoping the quinella divvy will be worthwhile. I have struck some good divvies over the past few weeks which unfortunately were prior to listing the selections here. After saying that, I had a $102 quinella yesterday where the total outlay for the day was $80 for a return of $114.

Today's selections are:
Rocky R6 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 8 (no.3)
Rocky R7 nos. 1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 13 (no.3)
Rocky R8 nos. 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10 (no.8)

Total outlay of $40.

A losing day yesterday. I will give it one more chance.

Rosehill
R4 nos. 1, 5, 6, 8, 9 (no.2)
R6 nos. 1, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11 (no.10)
R8 nos. 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12 (no. 3)
Dombeen
R1 nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 (no.7)
R4 nos. 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 (no.1
R5 nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (no.1)
Gold Coast
R4 nos. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 (no.1)
R5 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 (no.3)
Kembla
R4 nos. 2, 3, 4, 6, 8 no.1)
R5 nos. 4, 6, 8, 9, 11 (no1)
Warrack'beal
R5 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 (no.2)
R6 nos. 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11 (no.2)
R7 nos. 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 11 (no.5)
R8 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 9 (no.1)
Toowoomba
R3 nos. 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 (no.2)
R5 nos. 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 12 (no.3)

Outlay $207.

Doomben
R7
Banker No. 3/1-2-7-8-9@ 2 units
R8
Banker No. 3/1-4-5-6-7-8-11-14@ 2 units
Rosehill
R7
Banker No.1/2-3-4-5-8@ 2 units
R8
Banker No. 3/1-5-6-7-8@ 2 units
Moonee Valley
R7
Banker No.2/1-3-4-5-6@ 2 units
R8
Banker No. 2/1-3-4-5-7-8-9-10@ 2 units

Hi Michaelg,

I find quinella betting frustrating , always so close & always just missing out.
If one can pick them ,the value can be had if the O/L is not too much.
It`s amazing how many box headed no hopers get up.

One idea of getting the outlay down ,is to take the RadioTABQ or any other reliable source`s, firsts 2 selections , as anchor bets & place the others around them.
E.g.123456
RadioTABs first 2 selections could be say 1 & 2
1/3456
2/3456
Cost , if boxing ,would normally be 6x5 divided by 2 =15
This way the cost would be $8

The RadioTAB top 2 selections gets 1st or 2nd approx 53% of the time .
Check it out.


Cheers.

Bags, iv'e tried that before and sometimes the 1 & 2 [eg:] get up and i get zilch, i limit boxing quinella's to 4 selections, or take a standout with up to 6 for 2nd pick[ max: $6 per $1 bet], and also avoid small fields as i always get trapped by them and the value is normally not there.

Something i have been toying with is boxing the TAB selections for an "Any2" combination. At first glance and without any substantial testing it seems to provide some consistent results. Outlay = $3

Quinellas could drive a fella to drink with the amount of times anything good, bad or ugly beats my selection for second.

Heard before that the any 2 bet is pretty good, but iv'e been spelling since Doncaster day will resume in August for the spring carnivals,havent bet during winter for the last 2 years[ punt up on the footy], not sure if that bet type has come in NSW or not, i'd better pull my finger out and find out and start watching a few race or i'll be that far behind it wont be funny.

Tired of banging my head against the wall with you guys,you just wont listen,or is it because I am not in the "clique/"that seems to be commonplace on this forum these days?
Baghwan,no offence intended,but I cannot get my head around your post.You obviously have a large following here,so can you do a Pauline and "please explain" how or what the logic is in standing out
1/3-4-5-6
2/3-4-5-6
and not coupling 1/2???

Angel, hope you dont get a headache

I'm not sure what's going on here angel??
Perhaps banged head once to often - lol
What do you mean by coupling?
Coupling for what - first and second place?
Coupling 1/2 for first?

he means taking 1 & 2 in the quinella ,as the 2 standouts cover all the other combinations bar that one

do i have to start banging my head against the wall too[just kidding]

theres;

1/3
1/4
1/5
1/6
2/3
2/4
2/5
2/6
but no 1/2 !

I get ya Goldie

But that is the design of the quinella.

1 and 2 are the standouts for first place so why would you want to couple them?

If you wanted to include all runners 1 through 6 in any combination you would box them - No?

Jamcool,
why would you want to couple 1&2????Are you for real??If they are your 2 main chances why would you not couple them?If they are your 2 strongest selections,you MUST couple them.Thats my point about betting to prices.You can still take your standouts with as many other runners as you wish,but to cover your ******** you must couple your main 2,it is sheer madness not too.
E.G.
You take 1/3-4-5-6
2/3-4-5-6
for 1 unit=$8 as suggested by Baghwan
You have not covered your main 2 selections,where is the sense in that??
If you are confident enough to stand out 2 selections,surely you take those 2 for 5 or 10 units one out.
There is a misconception about value in quins.If you choose to look for bolters,you are going down the gurgler.The overlays lie in the shorter end of the market,which seems to be where you guys are not prepared to look.
You will not win long term boxing .Look at what I posted late Sat. arvo,using Fridays prepost market,prepost fav with next 5 in the betting,2 races with next 8.Hit 3 out of 6,POT close to 20%.Whats wrong with that??Boxing and chasing roughies is for the herd mentality,it just does not happen with quinellas often enough.
How often will your main 2 picks run 1/2,and your not on??
That is if you are not hoping for a 20/1 shot to win.
And yes,I do have a headache,from trying to explain to you guys what you cannot seem to grasp.
No wonder Becareful,Chromeprince,ossuldj,equineinvestor,myse lf and others dont post on a regular basis anymore,weve all got ************ headaches!!!!

I see what you're saying angel,

However:
1/3,4,5,6
2/3,4,5,6
=
1,2/3,4,5,6

As your bankers and as it is a quinella and not an exacta then your selections 1 & 2 can run in any order - No?

Thank you for your patience and your kind response, it was enlightening.

God help the freezer dept at woolies you think you're buying butter and you get yoghurt.

Jamcool
NO!!!
If you take 1-2/3-4-5-6,YES!!!
If you take 1/3-4-5-6
2/3-4-5-6 NO!!!
You do NOT HAVE 1/2 coupled.

angel417,

I think you are wasting your time.

To my previous post, forget the yoghurt I think our friend would put the hair shampoo in the cooler.

Well then, as i understood Bhagwans post and i may be wrong, the point was each standout selection (1 & 2) would be taken with 3,4,5,6 etc. The seperate listing of each strategy was for the purpose of illustration and not the actual selection method, albeit confusing. If i have misunderstood then so be it, i will stand corrected.

Kenchar, the marvellous Kenchar. $10,000 a month you make did you say or was it $10,000 a day i forget. You'd think with all your money you'd have better things to do than hang around here licking peoples arses.

Whatever floats your boat.

iamcool,

I knew my post on the other thread would bring a few out of the woodwork.
I understand what you are saying in relation to what Bhagwan posted but read the other posts in this thread in relation to the two bankers running first and second, it cannot be explained any simpler, yet you cannot comprehend it.
How the hell can you expect to make money off the punt if you cannot comprehend something so basic.
In answer to your question of why I post on the forum, it is usually for two reasons.

1/ To knock PPM

2/ To try to help in any way I can.( Which is why I don't post much now as very few want to take advice how to succeed).

After reading your replies on this thread I think you are beyond help.
Seriously if you read what has been posted and your replies then you will agree you should buy lotto tickets.

Kenchar,
I do not know nor care what you are gibbering on about. When asking angel to expand what was meant by "coupling" i was refering to the above explanation provided by Bhagwan. Unless seriously mistaken this was also the post that angel was questioning. It is my understanding that taking the first two selections as anchor bets would have included both the first and second selection. This is my point, plain and simple.
If that is to complicated for you then i must apologise and will try to use smaller words in f-u-t-u-r-e. As for any previous discussion re: standout selections i really could not give a monkeys.

iamcool,

I just think that we will let other people on the forum work out what is going on, because dead set you have C O nfU zd me , no hang on , co nfoo Sd, no hang on, CCC OOO NNN FFF UUU SSS EEE DDD me. ( just had to ask my 9 year old daughter to help me out).
Just as a matter of interest I correspond with quite a few people from 2 forums privately, 2 who I will call my proteges, 1 from each forum are both making money of the punt for the first time in their life.
You ask why I bother when I am making very good money from the punt,
THE ANSWER IS ABSOLUTE TOTAL SATIFACTION AND IT GIVES ME A HIGH.
(Nearly better than coupling, NAH thats bull********)

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one.

I will say this though, thank the lord for philanthropic people such as yourself. I can't understand where you would find all the time. I mean running your empire, mentor to others less fortunate, i suppose you deliver meals on wheels and sing x-mas carrols to raise money in your spare time as well. Keep up the good work!

iamcool,

No I don't deliver meals on wheels, because delivery times interfere with the punt, ( but I do give to charities which I believe in like the Salvo's).
I DO sing xmas carols because it doesn't interfere with the punt ( unless I get good info on a dishlicker).
I have no empire and totally enjoy helping someone on the punt if I can.
I am not a bad judge of character and I think you have got the atitude of the majority, in that you cannot believe a person can succeed in their endeavours because you can't do it yourself.
I was being totally honest when I suggested lotto, Take that as you will.

Kenchar,
You're full of it - dead set. You espose the principles of helping your fellow man, those with less experience and knowledge than your know "f -all" self. I don't know a lot but i know enough to ask those who do, such as those on this forum and what's more i know this about you. You make unsubstantiated claims of success and wealth. You claim to have built this fanciful empire on the back of info, good info, reliable info you receive. Well i may not know much but i know the sound of **** when i hear it and Kenchar it is deafening. You claim to know me and my capabilities, well excuse me now but i nearly fell off my perch here in front of my computer. You are all talk mate.
You subscribe to threads re: Bhagwan and kiss his backside and then side with the very person who is slandering a suggestion he made earlier in the day.You are a grade A a-hole, of that i am certain. And should you need something to refresh your memory re-read the comments you made about me earlier today. Then after you have someone explain it to you, have a look at the subsequent comments made by your good buddy Angel on the other quinella thread re:Bhagwan.
http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=10254
I seriously doubt if you do half the things you proclaim so readily to anyone stupid enough to listen.

Very helpful indeed.

Someone said:
If you take 1-2/3-4-5-6,YES!!!
If you take 1/3-4-5-6
2/3-4-5-6 NO!!!
You do NOT HAVE 1/2 coupled.

Let me have a try.

We have runners: 1,2,3,4,5,6
1&2 might come in, but 3,4,5,6 might also to.
I think it's:
1/3, 2,4,5,6
2/3, 1,4,5,6
Yes-No ?

3 is you next favoured runner to come 2nd or 1st,depending.

Jamcool,
It was never my intention to "slander" Baghwan on this thread or any other.It was not my intention to initiate a slanging bout between you and Kenchar either.If you wanted to cover the 1/2 combo as in Baghwans post it was not,you would have to take 1-2/1-2-3-4-5-6@1 unit=$12.
Quinellas have been my forte for some years now,and contrary to popular belief,there is value in them,BUT the best overlays lie in the 10/1 or less combos!
e.g 6/4 with 4/1 expected divvie is 3.3
6/4 with 5/1 e.d is 4.2

Usually these will pay overs because rank and file punters will not take them,they will take the 6/4 shot with the field hoping for a bolter to run 2nd.
This is where the value lies.What would you rather do?Have $20win on the 6/4 shot and collect $25 if it wins,or have $10 on each quinella combo and stand to make a far greater profit,even if the hotshot runs 2nd?Providing one of the others wins that is.Look at the results on Saturday out of 32 races on the 4 mainland states.The biggest divvie was $120.70,Rosehill R7.
Doomben R8 $86.40.The majority of all other races paid less than $20.

That was my only point in having a dig at Baghwan,the "motza" quins dont happen often enough,and you can bet your gonads when they do you wont be on!
That is also my point about betting to prices.
e.g.
If you took the 6/4 shot coupled with 7 other runners@ $1 cost $7
It wins and the 4/1 runs 2nd,you will lose!
To make money you MUST bet to prices.
Being selective is the first step,aka which races to bet.
The fav as your banker is a good way to go,IF you consider to be a genuine fav,they do win 30% of all races.
The other side of the coin I hear you say?they lose 70%,BUT how many times do they run 2nd?
I tried boxing,it just doesnt work.

As for Kenchar,we are not"buddies"but I used to enjoy reading his posts years back and I have no reason to doubt his claims.I dont see it as big noting or any reason for him to substantiate his claims.I certainly dont think he deserved your vitriolic attack.

As for Baghwan I intend to apologise and talk to him on the other thread.
cheers

Angel

I have no problem debating with you the various points of any topic as i see them as per yesterdays discussion. If, as you suggest, i am wrong in my interpretation then i am only too happy to learn it here on this forum rather than anywhere else.

However, you will find that if you or anyone else is arrogant enough to slander, bash or in any other way criticise the ideas of another simply to serve you own need to feel superior, then don't be surprised if someone else challenges you on that point. You took quite a swipe at not only me but other contributors to this forum and that my friend is a fact. Would you like to read some of your posts from yesterday again?

As for Kenchar, he is a big boy and can fight his own battles. If you or he describe me or anyone else in such a manner, as was suggested by him in yesterday's posts for what seems to be his own enjoyment, then i will have no hesitation explaining to you some of the finer points in life as i see them. If you can't handle that then i guess you will have to deal with those issues on your own time.

Other than that Angel, take care and i will look forward to reading more of your enlightening ideas.

iamcool,

You are correct in that I can fight my own battles.
As far as Angel is concerned I have no particular opinion one way or the other, I agree with some posts and disagree with others.
AS far as Bhagwan I take offence at what you implied I posted as you totally misconstrued the post.
I have total admiration for the man for the effort He puts into this forum.
I have corresponded with him privately and would never put Him down.
Maybe I was wrong in the way I had a shot at you, but do me a favour and read back over the thread and REALLY read what a couple of contributors were trying to convey to you, and your answers to what they were trying to convey was absolutely dumb and showed that you had no comprehention whatsoever what they were trying to convey, and believe it or not they were trying to give you good advice.
You seem to have the traditional tall poppy syndrome which sadly is prevalent in this country today.

Kenchar,

Excusing who said what to whom - i do not and can not agree with what you are saying re: yesterday's discussion. It may surprise you to note that i am not stupid and fully understand what is and was said to and about me. It will surprise you further to learn that i also understand what and how a quinella works!

Ultimately, i feel that it is you who either did not bother or was too arrogant to even consider what it was exactly i was trying to say - however misguided or incorrect i may have been.

I wish to bear no grudge towards you and i apoligise for causing offence with my "Vitriolic" post late last night. I am neither arrogant or stupid enough to think that i cannot learn from those who post on this forum - even you.

However should you or Angel feel the need to ridicule me or anyone else that requests information or makes an incorrect statement again i will not hesitate to give it to you with both barrels - so to speak.

All that said and done and barring any further comment you may feel is necessary in response i now wish to move on. Perhaps someone else with the knowledge and patience required to impart something worthwile is available to learn from. Cos i sure have had enough of this tripe.

Finally, i neither envy nor begrudge you any of your successes, in fact quite the opposite. You must of missed that during your three second pyschological profile you conducted on me last night.

time out
 

angel417

If you don't mind and if it is not too much hassle, I just need to know if my question/answer is what you are trying to ask about the coupling factor ?
And anyone else for that matter if they could correct my suggestion if in error.

I don't want to get invloved in other discussions, so please, sorry for spoiling the show, I will not tolerate any other discussion except for the topic of this thread.
(You been warned)

Cheers and happier days !