Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process?
 

With the new season imminent it is an opportune time to discuss this issue. As the high class "carnival" horses begin to reappear and embark upon their spring campaigns there should be some prime opportunities for the astute punter to secure good priced winners.
Many will say that the path to selecting winners is a combination of nimuerous factors, eg. weight,barriers,jockey,trainer,breeding,fitness,ti me ratings etc.
Horses with a win strike rate of 20-25% and an overall place percentage of >80%are generally deemed to be class horses. Generally, horses with this proven consistency ratio can be expected to perform similarly in the future.
Therefore, the astute punter can benefit from these solid betting prospects.
He/She may even identify such horses in races where the general consensus suggests they have little chance. Yet, time and again they(ie.class horses) put up herculean efforts to defeat elite fields at surprisingly generous odds.
Class is the only factor which is not variable. Horses with this attribute regularly overcome adverse circumstances and win at apparently unsuitable distances against elite opposition.
What gets them home in many a tight finish after overcoming seemingly insurmountable obstacles? - "CLASS."
Anyone have any thoughts on this matter?
Cheers.

I agree class is one of the best indicators. I often say to myself after a losing race "damn I knew that was the best horse in the race, why didn't I back it"? Usually because factors such as weight, value and form of other runners is irresistable. I find if you back the besty horse in the race in most races you will do well.

Is Class The Defining Factor In the Selection Process
 

Hullo umrum,

Yes, we have all done that.
Particularly, betting on the races run during the week. The astute punter identifies many opportunities in the more obscure venues on the provincial and country circuit, particularly on the eastern seabourne.
As another contributor, Kenchar, said in a recent post.....all it needs is patience and I agree with him that it is easier said than done. We cannot resist the allure of having one more bet on that "certainty" in the upcoming race....wherever that may be.
As you indicated though, if punters restrict their bets to "class" horses they will definitely notice an improvement in their strike-rate and eventual POT.
Cheers.

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

Well..., Melb Race 6 has now been run and won superbly by that "class" horse," Super Elegant. A protest "muddied the waters" however my view of the head-on shot suggested there was no real chance of success.
I believed there were only two real chances, Super Elegant and that great old campaigner, Bomber Bill. Other "pretenders" such as Bennetts Green and Wildly were mainly the product of media hype.
Dilly Dally ran a good race and may be one for the future.
It confirms my point that champion horses will invariably come through as they possess that defined quality of "class."
Within certain parameters, even excessive weight cannot bring this class of horse back to the field. At the wfa scale, really, Wildly and Bennetts Green had no real chance. However, they should pay their way this spring and the astute punter may secure generous odds....just be patient and wait for the opportunities.

Cheers.

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

Respected race-caller, Greg Miles, quoted during the win of Super Elegant today: "displayed the ticker inside when the chips were down with this guy."
It is a tribute to a "class" horse and there are more of them out there awaiting the spring carnival.
The astute punter will spend the time in form study and reap the benefit of these opportunities.

Cheers.

Yeah great horse. Only had three bets saturday one was super and a saver on dilly dally and the other salavat in perth so Super gave me a tidy profit. The dismissal of the protest was correct imo.

cheers

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

Yes Umrum, as I said earlier, we are on the threshhold of the new racing season and there will be innumerable betting/profit-making possibilities for us this Spring.
All the best.

Class is a key but a class horse can not race at a supreme level race after race,year after year,eventualy it gets old and weary.

Imo we should be looking for horses that have earned their "class" reputation as recently as possible.

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

Yeah, Dale, you're right, as the "old guard" age and retire, there are always a number of younger aspirants ready and able to take over as the latest "big thing."
However, the only problem with this hype is that many a "boom" horse fails to maintain their form due to injury or just "training off."
The class horses which I highlight are those that have displayed exceptional consistency against elite opposition over the last few seasons.
So take the "big picture" approach.....there are plenty of prospects out there.
Now, please excuse me as I am about to begin my form study for the weekend races and hopefully identify those "class" horses which the media and racing pundits have generally under-estimated and may provide me with a profitable betting opportunity.

Cheers.

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

I would like to maybe seek the input of a form analyst, osulldj in this matter.
I respect his opinion and would like to hear his insight into his own form analysis(without giving any secrets away).
Looking forward to his incisive comments.

Cheers.

Get on the Kid this weekend Xanadu. He always drifts in the market, and looks extremely hard to beat, is he the class horse of the race? because i'd say Our Smoking Joe is classier, although his record is nowhere near as good as Dandy's. Wait for Dilly Dally to get down the Flemington straight, there are not many in the land that could beat her at wfa down the straight 6.

Is Class The defining Factor in The Selection Process
 

Yes, Mr ed, the Kid certainly has an enviable record at the Valley and should run well. My only concern is a 3kg boy on topweights which I am usually averse to backing. However, I believe the apprentice has previously won on the kid so this nullifies any doubts about his ability to handle "the Moonee Valley champ." I also agree with your comment about Our Smoking Joe, a horse upon which I have won a bit in the past. Also, Dilly Dally,... like yourself, I noticed the exceptional run last week and in the right race at the right distance on the right track, what can stop her from cleaning up this Spring?

Cheers.

Is Class The Defining Factor In the Selection Process
 

Mr ed, one thing I forgot to mention in my reply to you. Later today, at 3:10 p.m. EST, race 6 in Sydney, there are a number of "class" horses running-Spark Of Life, Court's In Session, Dance Hero and one that I am keeping my eye on...King Rex. It has been in good form and is to be ridden by Billy Idol...the only question is...can it step up? There is a big media push for Snippetson but I like to see at least ten starts from any horse before, statistically, I can evaluate whether it qualifies as a "class" horse.
Very interesting race but I will be dutch-betting if possible and having exotic bets hopefully to return a respectable POT. We'll see how it goes.

Cheers.

Is Class The Defining Factor In the Selection Process
 

Well, the big race has been run and won.....by a "class" horse, Dance Hero. Snippetson ran a good race and appears ready to "step up."
Spark Of Life ran a "good" race but was "burned-off" by the winner.
Presently ran a very "even" race and may have something in store for connections this Spring.
As I said, a very interesting race.....hmmmm. I'll study the video tonight.
Any thoughts?

Cheers.

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

Well Mr ed, although "the kid' did not run up to our expectations, that grand campaignor, Our Smoking Joe did the right thing and not only covered our outlay but gave us a very nice POT,(ie. dutch-betting).
Question....do you think "the kid" was disappointing?
I'll study the video tonight to make up my own mind whether he is now "over the top."
However, you see why I have usually adhered to my edict of not backing 3kg apprentices on topweights(although, I had no complaints about the ride). I can assure you that if you delete this category of rider, you will show a better overall return on your investments.

Cheers.

like what you say
 

hey xanadu,,,i think your very right with what you say about class today was a class race and in the end the class horese won how he wanted doubt i'll get 5 to 1 about him again for a while....
most people that punt enough to spend time here,and elsewhere cant wait long enough for the odd class race this time of year so they, me ,we,will try to find value else were....do you think its possible to find class in a ballarat class 6..............cheers gaz

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

G'Day gazman,

As you can see, 'class" horses, within certain parameters, will continue in their normal racing pattern, until, as mentioned by another contributor, they age, get injured or succumb to a better athlete.
That's fine, but it is up to the astute punter to decide when it is time to cease supporting the fading star and get on to the rising star.

Cheers.

Is Class the Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

Gazman,

Further to your post, yes I do believe that it is possible to find value at a provincial or country meeting. In fact, these meetings are my "happy hunting ground" for such chances.
Any horse, from an astute/leading stable dropping down to country class warrants further investigation although its form stats show...9976...etc
Hope this helps you.

Cheers.

I thought Dandy Kid ran well enough, he needs it wet these days, and today was close enough to good. He was poorly ridden, he could've taken the passage the winner took although he wouldn't have got up. The winner despite having all the favors was very impressive and looks a real chance in a race like the Mooney Valley Cup, Winning Edge presentation, etc. Did back Dance Hero, unbelieveable discrepancy in the prices between it and Spark of Life, his run in the Straddie was so good aswell, i admit if the odds were $3 a piece i would've probably taken Spark of Life. Dance Hero is very close to the best horse Australia has and needs to start getting some recognition, he is highly underrated.

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

Yes, Mr ed,

A great win, but I noticed in a media report that doubts exist as to his ability to recreate his 2YO brilliance. Well, he showed the doubters and should proceed onto greater heights(injury free I hope).

Cheers.

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

Punters..., just one other issue to be aware of in your final thoughts about backing certain horses/dogs/trotters. How many times have you intended to back a certain runner but been diverted away by some negative report or opinion from some "expert."
Regularly, the horse/dog/trotter, that you intended to support, duly salutes at generous odds leaving you cursing for having listened to someone elses opinion.
Take my advice....always follow your own opinion...sure..., listen to the "experts" for their opinion, but, believe in your own thoughts/ form study before investing your "hard-earned."
All the best.

Cheers.

what do you think
 

hey there xanadu,,,,,,,,,,i read with interest that gai said that its much harder to train a stayer to sprint than it is to train a sprinter to stay..

may be some thing to do with the future of dance hero ....food for thought when looking at early markets..................cheers ...gaz....

"staying sprinters": Dance Hero
 

Yea, Gai said to be aiming DH for the Cox Plate - now that would be a training feat to pull off. Right horse to test her throry of training sprinters to "stay" (though CP is a "short" 2040m - as we know a good miler can win it).

Is Class The Defining Factor In the Selection Process
 

Tomorrow, there are a number of "class" horses running. However,at this early stage in my form ananlysis, I have highlighted a number of actions in SR7 that warrant further scrutiny.
In my opinion, there are three "class" horses in this field....
No2 Newton's Ring(currently in very consistent form),
No5 Jovial
No13Men At Work
Not topliners by any means but "class" horses as indicated by their past performances, within their own class capabilities.
A race which I would normally probably not get too involved in except for a number of interesting occurrences:
i) Newton's Ring - G Boss exits as rider although finishing a close second at it's last start;
ii) Jovial - reasonable run last start(I was on it 1x5), apprentice K Fuji, replaced by senior rider, L Cassidy. Older style form students would note that Newton's Rings beat Jovial last start by a neck when they were carrying 56kg & 53 kg respectively. In tomorrow's race, there is only a 0.5kg difference in their weights(56kg & 55.5kg respectively). Presumably, at these weight differentials, Jovial should not be able to match Newton's Rings, however, there have been significant jockey changes and this may be the defining feature in this particular duel. Jockey ratings would suggest that the difference in previous riders, K Fuji-Cassidy(Jovial) -big difference & G Boss-Z Purton(Newton's Rings), relatively less difference, would negate this impact,
iii) Men At Work - a certain jockey, G Boss, relinquishing the ride on Newton's Rings to ride this fellow. My only reservation is the "second-up" syndrome.
So this race gives us some food for thought but these are very good indicators that certain horses are expected to put in respectable runs.
If interested, wager in the ratio of 1x5 and like any race there are no guarantees. However, we are wagering on fit, hard runners, some of whom may have a future. Also, let's not forget...there are a number of other well credentialled runners in this race.NB. the topweight has a 3kg boy onboard so is a "watch and see" proposition.
See how we go.

Cheers.

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

Yes, gazman, we will have to wait and see if she can weave her magic in respect of this fellow. Let's face it, if anyone can she can.

Cheers.

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

The race has now been run and won:
Newton's Rings ran OK but not up to the task,
Jovial, went out in front which is customary but unable to hold off the challengers, interesting to note that it had little support in the betting ring and set a solid pace for it's stablemate...hmmm,
Men At Work, went well and justified public support.

Cheers.

class is class
 

hey xanadu,,,,,,hope all is well......had to put my bets on friday lunch time as i went fishing for three days...........it was a great way to bet as there was no input from outside sources as you talked about in this thread,,,,i would be a great learning curve for anyone to do, and that is to make your mind up and dont be swayed by opions of people who dont invest as much time and money as most of us that bother to post on here as i think there is a wealth of information to found if you no were to look .....in the end xanadu i would be suprised if you did not back WORDS OF MAGIC as i thought he was a class above those he was against on saturday and was 12to1..go figure...
cheers.....gaz...

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process
 

Goodonya gazman, however, unfortunately, I did not secure that good-priced winner. As you will probably agree, there are more of them out there, even at country and provincial venues - we just have to look for them in a methodical way and block out any distractions.

Cheers.

Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection process
 

In my initial form appraisal I have identified several "class" horses running tomorrow:
SR6 1 Dance Hero
" 2 Spark Of Life
" 3 Snippetson
It will be interesting to see whether Dance Hero "burns off" Spark of Life as he did last start. Spark Of Life should be better primed this start to take Dance Hero on. Snippetson has only had 7 starts and usually I wouldn't include him in my calculations however he impressed me last time and may be a potential Spring star.
SR8 2 Wild Queen
SR9 3 Mystery City*
SR9 5 Appalachian*, *these two have not had the prerequisite number of starts to usually interest me but I think they may be going places so I will monitor their progress. Also, Beadman has been engaged for the Waterhouse runner, so we will see what unfolds.
MR712Caprizzi Strip, the state of the track gives me some concern,

Cheers.

Xanadu, i think the only danger to Dance Hero is Carrie on Cutie, she was my pick for 2yo of the year, and gets in 10kg lighter then the boys. Dance Hero from the Missile, looks to have his rivals from that event covered and i would happily take the $2.10 if Carrie On was not engaged.

Wish there were 8 starters. Carry On Cutie would be a magnificent each way bet. Dance Hero is obviously the one to beat, but if he wasn't there, I'd actually be quite confident with Carry On Cutie.

Interesting Sportz, we'll have to see if there is any "smart" money for it.

Cheers.

Interesting Race
 

Yes Mr ed, allowing for the fact that technically, she may still only be 2YO it will be very interesting to see if she can compete successfully against the more seasoned opposition.
It has all the hallmarks of developing into a very interesting race and should give us all a pointer to the prospects of all runners in the upcoming feature races.
All the best and good luck.

Cheers.

Another i think is the 'class' tommorow is Stamen in Adelaide, he's a great horse with a terrific finishing sprint. He never came up last prep and has had a nice long spell, but he never races well during autumn for some reason but come springtime he's a ripper. Has placed 4 of 5 fresh, and with only 55kg he's a live chance IMO.

Well.....the race is over and what a result!!....there is a belief that the rider of Dance Hero went too early and may have some explaining to do to connections.
If any astute punter backed Shania Dane let us know what your main consideration was. As it unfolded the race was set up for backmarkers but having said that, Shania Dane still had to be good enough to match it with these class sprinters.
I thought the task may be too much for Carry On Cutie because as I said in an earlier post she may still be a 2YO and it is asking too much for her to compete with other topliners notwithstanding her apparent weight advantage.

Cheers.

Well, obviously I was way off with Carry On Cutie. Sorry. :o

But seriously, how could you pick Shania Dane?

Sportz, she will definitely pay her way this Spring so stay with her.
I "lucked out" in the race by investing on Dance Hero in the ratio of 1x5. Having said that, I noted with interest the other thread that indicated that in the longrun this may not be the best wagering method to follow(ie. 1x3, 1x4, 1x5...etc). We'll see what unfolds this Spring but it is my belief that successful wagering depends on your strike-rate accompanied by amounts wagered and result sequence...ie you could be down to your last unit and back a 40/1 winner thereby recouping all your previous losses and end up with a reasonable POT.

Cheers.

Just as a side issue, I was watching the race on TVN and it had a very close shot of the finish with Lenny Beasley, head down, frantically riding his mount out "hands and heels" then whoosh...Shania Dane swept past, giving him a cold in the process.
Lenny looked across and the look on his face was priceless as all of his hard work to fight off Spark Of Life had come to nought. You really had to feel for the guy.
Spark Of Life should now be ready to amend next start so stay with him.

Cheers.

Hi!
I have 10 criteria in my rating, and Shania Dane never came less then third, as a matter of fact it came second four times, in the individual ratings. and third in the overall.
Given the prices for the favs, and the price on offer, I would have been stupid not to back it.
I had them in this order 6-2-5-1
Cheers.

Well, I got something back. I took a quinella with Dance Hero and the field. I was actually going to leave Shania Dane out of that bet, but I thought I may as well chuck her in with the others. Didn't honestly expect her to get up and win though.