Statistical Certainty Bets
 

Following on from sports thread how about we post bets what we think are certainties. Post the event, winner and odds. If people decide to back them so be it :).

I'll Post the first one i think is a cert :).

Nth Melbourne vs Port Adeliade

Nth Melbourne to win @ $1.65

Nth has won 5 from the last 7 meetings and port hasn't beaten nth away from football park in the last 5 years. Port has only won 1 from 7 away from home this year.

Melbourne Vs St Kilda

Melbourne to win @ $3.00

This is a tough won on recent form but on stats Melbourne should win. The last 4 meetings between these 2 teams at the MCG Melbourne has won all 4 by an average margin of 48points.

The Kangaroos were actually the ones I was thinking of. They have won 10 of the 12 matches between the two teams. Port have won 2 of the past 3, but they were both at Football Park. If Port lose, they're just about out of the running for the 8 so they'll be damn determined, but the Roos are looking for a top 4 spot too.

The only problem with the Kangaroos is they're not a team I feel really comfortable backing as favourites. They tend to be an under-rated team that wins a lot as underdogs. Not sure they're a great team to bet on as favs.

BULLDOGS vs Rabbitohs

The Rabbitohs have won 1 out of the last 14 games between these two - they beat them 6 years ago 16-14 but before that was 12 years ago in 1993. The Bulldogs have also racked up 128 pts in their last 3 encounters at Aussie Stadium.
Despite the shock draw last time, the bulldogs look to be the much better side, and with mason back in the side they should win.

Yes, but what about the price? The Bulldogs will be about $1.10, won't they?

Driving home I think I heard $1.12, Sportz. Souths $5.50.

would it be a "statistical certainty"


ha ha

The Bulldogs will have to score a lot more trys from now on as El Masri is out for the season and i think only Anasta and Sherwin have only ever kicked 1 goal each, so with the bulldogs probably going in as fav's in nearly all their remainng games i would think about taking the start on the other teams.

they have only kicked 1 goal each because el Masri has played 194 games straight :o

Lolesi will probably kick anyway i think

The Wallabies have never won at the ground they're playing at this week, they've won only 1 of their last 11 games in Sth Africa and since Eddie Jones took over, they've only won 2 of their last 14 overseas tests against quality opposition.

Just going on that, you'd think South Africa were specials this week. Australia's had an extra week in SA to prepare for this one though, so I'm not as confident as I was last week. Let's see what the odds are.

IAS have the springboks at $ 1.65 which I think is pretty fair odds, considering your stats sportz, Still I wouldnt underate the aussies. might be good value.

I was on the phone to my young bloke two days ago and I said to him before the news broke that el masri was worth ten points a game to them ...just looked at his record 18 appearances for 180 pts.(11 tries).... bang on the money.
Ive always thought that he was a good winger positionally .......johnny on the spot type....I think his loss will diminish the scoreline by 33% (eg the 180 he scored this year would be reduced to 120pts if he hadnt been there)However they have gone the year with out a full forward pack but I think thats all coming back together so maybe they wont be that badly off bar a couple of goals a match

Why should they win?
They are coming back from Perth
St kilda are flying and with the possibility of Riewoldt ,Hammill etc back from injury this week,I dont think you could put enough on St kilda.
The only drawback is that it is at the G,which is not as kind to St Kilda as the dome is
Good luck anyway.

Centrebet is offering $1.17,HUGE!!!!!!!

Obviously, they've gone out due to no El Masri.

correct! A majority of the bulldogs wins have been by a miNimal margin and was due to El masaris 85% goal kicking.I wouldnt touch the bulldogs this week. Fullback and 2 wingers gone, i dunno.

I wouldnt touch them either especially against THE MIGHTY RABBITZ

"considering your stats sportz"

"The Wallabies have never won at the ground they're playing at this week, they've won only 1 of their last 11 games in Sth Africa and since Eddie Jones took over, they've only won 2 of their last 14 overseas tests against quality opposition."

All those stats say is SA is tough at home and Aus has been in a slump. Before last week, SA didn't look too good did they?

I also think you're missing something VERY important. Last week didn't really matter, where as this week is the first game of the tri-nations.

"IAS have the springboks at $ 1.65 which I think is pretty fair odds, considering your stats sportz"

Guys, you don't think the bookies have already taken everything your've thought of into account? You don't think people will be jumping to back SA after last week?

1.71 is available at Pinnacle for North.

Don't like the look of the Kangaroos at the moment.

Yep nth look very flat.

I had a VERY minimal bet on them, because as I said earlier in the thread, I just can't go with the fact of them being favourites for this game. The Kangaroos are a team that seem to do best when they are the underdogs, and I personally don't really rate them in the same class as Port.

Kangaroos fighting back. Still some chance here.

Never in doubt! :D

Sure makes it tough for Port to make the finals now!

Well, these were the 'statistical certainty' type bets that I had on the weekend:

Sth Africa to beat Australia: 3 units @ $1.72
Tiger Woods to make top 5: 3 units @ $1.45
Kangaroos to beat Port Adel: 1 unit @ $1.65

So, not a bad result, but all 3 were looking shaky at various stages.

Yep not to bad sportz. It doesnt matter what happens during the game all that matters is the final scores ;)

not a bad thread. i wanna see some more weekly bets of the week

How about St kilda at $3.75 for the flag,West coast and adelaide dont play real well in melbourne.how about Ben cousins at $1.14 to finish a place in the brownlow.how about leeds to beat Hull in the challenge trophy (when its played i dont know but they'll walk in
Cheers

Dont jump on the saints yet. The last 8 games were all against current bottom 8 sides. Wait until they come up against a good top 8 side before putting $'s on them. I wouldnt include Geelong as a good example lol. There form has been shocking expect stkilda to smash them.

Okee Dokee,
Here's my AFL action for Rd 19

Saints 'ON FIRE' vs 'LACKLUSTER' Cats @ $1.22
Eagles 'TOO STRONG' vs 'IMPROVING' Doggies @ $1.55
Crows 'AT HOME' vs 'DEPLETED' Demons @ $1.16
Power 'UP AND DOWN LIKE A WHORES KNICKERS' vs 'HAPPLESS' Carlton @ $1.65

Multi @ Centre = $3.62
Although not a big multi fan any of the above selections should do you proud.
Saints and Power combo = even money - not a bad bet

whats the satistical certaincy for those bets

have you got any stats to back these up, because i think that was what this thread was about

Yeah, all those teams could certainly win, but there's not actually any huge statistical advantage for saying so. For example, Geelong have won 7 of the past 10 against the Saints.

Sure,

Saints record at telstra dome is enviable, they have most if not all key players back from injury. As for Geelong, King and Mooney are out. King especially as he would most likely dominate the clearances giving Geelong first use. Mooney's loss means less flexibility and Ottens will have to cover in the ruck diminishing what is already struggling Cats forward line - by their own admission. The last five games played by each team spit out the following win/loss info:

Saints: W W W W W ave score = 138
Geelong: L L W L W ave score = 96.4

Granted both teams have played inferior opposition but the Saints have thrashed the teams they have played whereas Geelong have beaten Hawthorn and Port, both at Skilled Stadium.

For me stats are great at telling me what has happened in the past however not always transferable to next week. It also depends how and what you would want to see in them. For instance 7 of 10 wins to the Cats suggests to me that sooner rather than later the Saints will win. However to someone else they say the Cats have the ascendency and therefore should win.

As for my other selections:

Eagles are far and away the most consistent team in the land this season. Refer to any stats you wish. I expect them to be too strong for a resurgent Bulldogs. Too much class and depth in most key positions. The MCG is said to be an achilles heel for the Eagles, i am not convinced. They lost to the Pies in round 9, a freakish performance by the Pies in the context of their year to date. They then beat Melbourne convincingly there in round 13 when the Dees were second on the ladder. I think i'll call it even.

The Crows are possibly the most improved team this year. The demons are in a massive slump and with the loss of Bruce, Green and Neitz they will not have the midfield or strike power to trouble the tightest defence around at the moment, particularly at AAMI.

As for the power, well i just can not tip Carlton, no matter how well they played last weekend. Port are having a miserable season but they should have too much class for Carlton, if and only if they feel like playing. I don't think stats will help anyone here.

Statistically sound - perhaps not. If you guys have info that would contradict or improve on my reasoning please post so i can re-assess.

As I said, those 4 teams could certainly all win. Not arguing that. But there's not actually any overwhelming statistical basis for picking them.

i don' think there's any major statistical selections this week for AFL or NRL

OK Guys,

Hows about this:

Crows vs Demons
Crows have won 9 of last 10 matches.
Demons have won 4 of last 10, lost last six in a row by an average of 48.
Crows have won last 7 of 10 at AAMI.
Demons have lost last 8 of 10 at AAMI.
Crows have won last 9 of 10 day games.
Demons have lost last 7 of 10 day games.
Demons have lost last 7 of 10 interstate games.

Average points scored last 10 matches.
Crows: 94
Demons: 97

Average points conceded last 10 matches.
Crows: 65
Demons: 112

Average points at AAMI.
Crows: 83
Demons: 77

Head to Head at AAMI.
Crows: 5
Demons: 2

No Neitz, Bruce or Green.
Statistical Certs?


Wait for it

Yes, but they're also only paying $1.16. Personally, I do agree that they will almost certainly win and probably by a good margin.