Maths Question
 

I am trying to calculate how my bet in to the quaddie pool would have affected the payout so i can test if what i am doing is profitable, here is what i have so far

say we had a Quaddie pool of $15085
and the payout on that race was $6788.40

that equate to about 2.22 for each $1 winning combination now we know people can bet the flexi so there is know way of knowing how many tickets won but that does not matter we only need to know the winning divi for $1

So if i put a $625 bet on and i had my unit for $1 do i add my amount to the pool less 20% then divide the pool by 3.22 to see what the dividend would have been with my selections added providing i got the winning combination

in the case above the pool would have been $15585 = 625 less 20% giving a winning divi of $4840

Your logic seems right to me Shaun (only took me 9 days to get my head around it :-)).

Yeah i got the answer on another forum i was correct except i don't deduct 20% from my bet i deduct it from the pool after my bet is placed i understand thats how they do it to get final divis

Doesn't matter how you say it 500 of your 625 goes into the pool (if it's a 20% take on quadrellas) by my understanding. You're figures were right weren't they?

KV

No...because i failed to deduct 20% from the pool when working out what was leftover to divide with the winners

I think I'm with you now. The pool then is the total pool, not just what's left to divide among the winners. They show the total of all the bets made, then deduct 20% before paying out.
This means you should have added 625 to the 15085 and then taken 20% off the total before distributing it.

Glad we (Hope we) got that cleared up.

KV

Exactly mate...by doing this we will get an accurate winning divi.......

I think you both got it wrong, at least as far as where to deduct the 20% from.
In this scenario the divident is known, so the 20% has been deducted from the pool already, therefore he has only to deduct $125 from his contribution.
In the real situation, however, he has to deduct the 20% from the pool AFTER he added his bet, But still not be the wiser, as to how his bet effected the outcome, because nobody knows how many winning combinations there are.
The best one can do is calculate the possible divi after the third leg is known and the live bets are annouced but by then it's too late anyway.
Shaun! the only guide you can have is to make up a table yourself, starting with an average pool and with the lowest probable return (maybe $200)
add your bet, work out the a change in divi, then go for $300 and so forth. this way you can make up a table but I hardly think it worth the bother.

I think we are all getting confused now..i know i am, i will explain my current calculation

Final pool $234,658
Final Divi $4,141
Number of winning Divis for $1=$234,658-20%=$187,726/$4,141=45.33
45.33 is the number if winning tickets for $1
as a test my selections win the Quaddie for $1 5 selection each leg cost me $625
Final Divi $234,658+$625=235,283-20%=188,226/46.33(45.33+1)=$4062.73
45.33+1 the 1 is my winning ticket

Hi Shaun!
Interesting question!
Sorry I thought I was clear in my last post, but obviously not.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to calculate what effect your bet will have on the final dividend before it is known (divi I mean).
Simple as that.

If you are mathematically inclined I can give you some formulae that will give you an idea of what the quinella, trifecta, should pay, and you can with some extra work extrapolete these to the quaddie as well but it is only of academic interest because you have to put in the odds as you know them, and the final odds are not known till the race finished.

And it would be wrong anyway because the punters ruin the exotics by overbetting some horses.

I did a research for someone re. quaddie and it turned out to be profitable within certain PP rankings but the money involved was BIG and the run of outs could easily cause heart failure in some. But they are still in business!
Cheers

I am not trying to estimate the payout...i am trying to adjust the final payout as if i had placed my bet.....it is a part of my test to see if the ratings i have are profitable to bet the quaddie with....at the moment with a small sample of 30 races i have 9 winning quaddies with an average divi of $3,500

OK that is a different matter.
If you only want to check on the results, then see my first reply.
You only take out 20% from "your" bet not the pool, because, since the divi is declared, obviously the 20% had been taken out of the pool.
Good luck with it!