IS EVERYONE A WINNER????
 

just a quick question which has been on my mind for a while and is a reason for me not posting for a while. Does everyone here still win when their selection is unplaced?? I find it hard to believe but everytime someone on this site tips a horse and it runs 4th, 5th or last, they still post and say "lucky I got the qn" or "lucky I got the exacta" What a load! C/mon, seriously, if you like a horse, you cannot back everything else and still win! Some people here tip 7 horses's per race, then say the exacta saved them ( but with 7 horses your almost garenteed to lose!!!!)

I just cannot believe some of thr remarks posted here.

I agree that some people here here tip at a 10-20% profit, but I hate post's where the tipster states there selection ran last but they jagged the exacta! Seriously, are we stupid or what!

If you lose admit it! We all do!

I may jag a 40/1 winner more often than the odds suggest, but I dont jag a tri every race, I lose 8 out of 10 but try to inject value into what I do win to make a small profit. If all everyone says they back here is true ( after saying "I didnt tip it because of the track or so and so",,,) they would be millionaires! It would make the forum more honest, beneficial and interestesting if posters admitted the truth!

I lose, YOU LOSE

We can only learn by each others mistakes!

So admit them!

And if i'm wrong, please tell me how to be a millionaire out of racing!, I'd love to learn ! I feel sick everytime I see people here jagged that PROFIT MAKING trifecta or exacta when there selected horse RAN LAST!!!

Sorry, but I cant resist posting my true feelings here, private post me if I'm wrong and tell me that elusive secret!!!

Tarbs

(PS if I post (tip) tommorrow I will admit I as wrong if they finish last!)

Sorry but...
 

Its my bucks day this saturday at vic park, so I'm frustrated a little here. I love the site and the forum, but PLEASE ADMIT WHEN YOU LOSE!!! (and I would love a winner for my bucks show!!!!!)Mav is great value, admits his losses and brags his wins, and he has the balls to do so (GREAT STUFF!!) Sorry if this thread offends anyone but lets live in the real world hey, not 'Fantasy Punting World" where everyone wins!

Thanks TARBS...

I don't know if I am a target here but the tips I put on here are sometimes different to what I decide to back and the main reason for that is price, I will not usually back horses at shorter prices than I anticipated they were going to be and if they are I will go looking for a horse at value. It has helped at times doing that but it has also bitten me in the ass to. As far as trifectas go I amnot sure how you do yours but if I do one I will put 3 horses on the top line with another 3 on the 2nd line for a half and that costs me $30.

I also had a treble last weekend at flemington because there looked to be extremely good value I was right just not quite right for myself. in the 1st leg of the treble I put alot of hores in there tough race to work out I thought I had Undoubtedly, Ferocity, Danger Looms, Fashions Afield, Jadescent & Chetwynd South the 2 I really liked were Danger Looms and Ferocity well ofcourse I backed Danger Looms but I was happy enough that the treble was still going. In the 2nd leg I had Confectioner and Free At Last so I was safe there worst part is though I decided to back Demerger e/w so got nothing out of the race aswell. In the last leg I took Valedictum, Calveen & Foreplay well I was close if Calveen had got up the treble would have paid out $2900 which would have been my 2nd highest payout ever I amnot a big punter do it more for fun and I love the horses I managed to snag the trifecta in the Oakleigh Plate a couple of years ago when Reactive won from Ancient Song and Suit that paid out at about $3000 for a half.

Other than that though my biggest wins would be below $1000 and I am by my own admission a terrible punter just get lucky a few times but in all honesty that is what this industry is 3/4 luck you can do all the form you want if they don't get the right run your left empty handed.

Hey Tarbs, Don't worry about me lying about winners. i know how to pick em. i just somehow don't get to the track and that is the same as losing (or breaking even). My favorite slogan is; "all that matters is if you got the money" meaning if you get lucky enough to call out the wrong number to win and realize it afterwards, you got the money no matter what. There is nothing as satisfying as watching the race unfold just as you called it and backing a nice triple without wasting hardly any extra money on the race, but if you mistakenly called out the loser's number instead, you didn't get the money although you handicapped the race perfectly. I've made the mistake a few times of asking for the horses odds to win and place. I guess I'm thinking about the money. And concerning multiple horses to win, I very rarely bet that way but if someone tips two in a race to win, it's then up to me to complete the puzzle for my own satisfaction.

Raw, You don't have to defend yourself for searching for value. That is the whole idea of handicapping, not to just pick who crosses the line first. Often now, I won't bother backing a horse in Australia to win because the US pools are so screwy that sometimes place divs are about the same and give you a much better chance of collecting. A useful tool at the Turf Club is the TV with the High/Lows for win place show on each horse, so you know exactly what you will be getting. Might see a Hawkes runner bet to even money for win and 3/2 for place, you just have to do the work and walk over to the screen.

Another factor you can't anticipate in advance is track bias, although that is more prevalent here than there. If the track is favoring on the pace runners and I tipped a dead closer, you better believe I'm gonna switch to an on the pace runner. If there were away to change post from the track, I'd tell everyone my reason for the switch up. Hey, parimutel wagering may be based on competition between your fellow player, but on these boards we are all in this together when it comes to cashing tickets, right on fellows!

Gday tarbs.

I dunno if you are throwing a dart my way, but if ya are... u are entitled to your opinion...

I will tell you the way that I bet... and it is successful more often than not. profit wise.. ( have a look at the trainer thread as just one example).. Overall I am winning on the punt...In races where I bet, I have rated all the runners... on this forum I express the rating as just that, a rating number... (that was because peole who used them found a number a better tool than a price, plus it is not as time consuming) how i bet them is I convert that number to an expected dividend.. and bet the overs on horses I price at under 11$ (10/1)... That may mean that I am backing a few runners in a race.. I take the odd exotic bet, but not a great deal.. I am of the view that backing 1 runner a race, while your return on a win will obvioulsy be greater (POT wise on each individual race) you need to have apretty good SR to be a winner or have very very few bets... and after all the name of the game is to actually bet on the runners and make a bit of cash. not just watch em run around and wish you had had the balls to back that winner in the last at 70$ that u had rated at 6$... If you wanna know about that last horse rated at 6 bucks that won at 70's email me off list and I will direct you to where that was posted yesterday, 3 days in advance... To me that is how you make your money.. I didnt yahoo about that runner because I didnt post it here..
When I post my ratings, I expect the winner to be in the posted horses at about 70% of the time.. over the years the average is about 74%

I do not yahoo on runners that I have not posted before the races.. I think that is poor form.. I do not offer excuses if my horses get rolled, (u know the line, we track, poor ride, tho every now and then I will say ************ Stewards lol) there is always another race, I do not say, Oh i though that would win but posted 5 others in error, that is arrant nonsense. What I will do sometimes when I have time is say what I think is value... even if i have something rated on top I will attempt to steer people away based on the horse being unders... so what if it wins.. in the long term if you continually back horses that are unders you will lose

I agree with you about the Jesus Christ like saviour quality of the tris and ex's, that is posted on this forum from time to time.. I find about 50% quins and ex's from my top 5 and about 25 - 30% tris.. I havent done the maths, but I dont think even the quinellas betting 5 horses in box will over the long term bring a profit... If I was to bet quinellas I would box the top 4 for whatever you can afford (6$ a unit).. with the tris forget I reckon.... I could be wrong tho

As for a tip for your bucks party at Viccy Park... my tip is RUN YA SILLY MAN :)

XPT.. your post hurts. In C1 midweek fields in country Victoria, I go looking for horses that have had more than 2 runs in town....doesn't matter if they have never placed on the city tracks. I was about to have a lash at Maximisation yesterday....but thought 1200m would be too short first up.


Now where is that stick......

Thanks everyone!
 

I have to admit I did not think this threat would be as insightful as it has been, and some good punting methods have come out that have made me understand different methods of betting to myself.

If I like a horse, I bet everything around it (qn, ex, tri, treble etc) which has a lower strike rate but higher divie considering the lower cost.

From whats been mentioned here, a profit can still be made when betting around you top 4 or 5 selections, which is interesting and is something I may try in the coming week.

And also, this thread was not based at anyone in particular, being relatively new to the forum it has given me a much better feel for the members. My thoughts were just a general observation, which has been clarified, so thank you

Also, sportz mentioned on the other thread his anytwo betting strategy which was great reading and insightful. Thanks.

All the best with the punt,

any other 'saving' betting strategies would be great to read/post here.

PS xptdriver, I think I'll be on that one this weekend! Cheers!

Tarbs,
The beauty of horse racing is everyone has a different betting stradegy. I can fully understand people posting there multiple selections on here as it can save there bacon. I do not doubt (with most people) that they are getting the quinellas trifectas etc. when I post a tip it is One horse in One race, maybe mentioning a danger or two, and I prefer to see others doing that. Almost anyone could pick 5 horses from each race and brag about the winner whether its 1st selection or 4th selection. In saying that I am not having a go at those that do, it is just my views on it.
Comiserations on the big day!! lol....

Well, a lucky exacta or 2 can save your day.

Around 2 weeks ago I had a pretty bad day, only 1 winner from the 7 or 8 races I invested on. But one race was my value target race, as the fave was odds on i think & i thought it was way unders. Getting the quinny in that one race gave me a profit on a day I should have lost by all rights. You could argue I over-invested on that one race I spose, but whatever. It does happen.

I'm like luv2bet, I prefer to take people at their word.

Tarbs, I have been developing a rating system for my own use and have had the benefit of the wisdom of the forum members in working out possible criteria weightings and actual types of criterion should be included...to be honest my system relies on info from other sites still and is not as comprehensive or technically advance as the members (a template actually)...

My difficulty has been reducing the ratings to a small number of bets and then deciding what and how I use this information to maximise profits...in the end I realised- like others- that betting all around your one selection can be good if it wins but bring you down if it fails...having savers (as again suggested by forum contributors) on other runners (thats why a lot of pundits advise to keep watch on specific runners ...) can take away the pain of losing...but it came down to (for me) how serious I was about the whole idea of punting and making money because one can not be too emotional about it and what I could afford to lose...

I have gone from the extremes of covering a lot of races backing one runner to backing 2-3 runners (to win and in exotics) to just the one/two selections for the day in 1/5 ratio (and would only do exotics if I felt that an outsider might come in as placegetters)...takes a lot of discipline but having said that, Im not a big bettor and am not looking to be a full time professional (dont have the balls lol!) Love the contributions of all the members and the sort of learning you can gain from reading their posts...an example being the inclusion of analysing videos (WA- Belmont only) and seeing how that develops...

Thanks for your tips and good luck this weekend...will give you my thoughts after viewing vids at Belmont...:)

Hi Tarbs ...i lose and lose alot :) i always admit it ..0 for 3 yesterday ..

my stake is 500 ...but i also have my Double stake specials..
(Lachlan River and Written By Xaar on Saturday)
Blue Patriarch and Quad Queen today...

win 400
ew's are 100 win 300 place
trifectas 100
1st4 100
treble 100

with my tris my selection with the Field ..full $1 if its a field of 11 or less ..
with the change of the 100 i'll back my selection with my 2 or 3 raters next in line ,,eg
today Sr 3 ..Number 3 , 900 win ,,trifecta 3/f/f $72 ,, trifecta 3/1,4/1,4 x $14
costs $1000

I'll do the same with Quad Queen in the next at Warrick Farm,,
$802 win .. 5/f/f costs $132 ... 5/3,4,2/3,4,2 X $11 costs $66
total $1000

Today Blue Patriarch and Quad Queen are my specials ..but usually its $500 per race,,

with my tris if i have a danger ..i'll have a 2/6/6 or something ,,also if i've tipped a longshot i'll couple it at the top with the next in the ratings...but i'll still have it with the field,,

Interesting to see how people bet on here,,,i was like you Tarbs ..i've always wondered how people when about actually making coin out of all the tips that go on here..
tipping is easy..its how you bet thats the hard part..

ouch :( ..can't win them all...
quad Queen running on but no Cigar ..

Geez, those numbers are scary! :eek:

used to be scary...but as you know ..i started from humble beginnings..
built a nice bank and have been blessed at Brisbane tracks...
Saturdays are alittle scary..especially if i've lost the first few races..

i like days like today when you got the first one over the line..takes the pressure off,,,

I have a turnover in excess of $1,000,000 per year but those risks scare me too.

Just figured out what Tarbs meant by "it's my bucks party.... on sat...". It's like learning a new language on here! LOL Enjoy your "Bachelor" party Tarbs and don't back anything I wouldn't back! or back anybody i wouldn't back......... LOL

Congrats as well, Tarbs. My wife told me if I kept betting the ponies she would leave me. I think I'll miss her. LOL

Hey Saratoga,

I know that you follow Australian racing and one of the best analytical tools in this game is statistics.
For example, favourites here win approximately 30-33% of all races.
90-92% of all races are won by the first six in betting order just prior to jump(or post-time).
Earlier this year Australia's biggest punter gave the racing public an insight to his betting activities. This punter would have an annual turnover of approx $100million per annum......yes!......$100Million of our "Pacific Pesos!"
He advised that 61% of all races are won by the horse leading at the turn.
He also advised that most winners come from the first 6 in running coming to the turn. Obviously, speed maps may be helpful to you here.
In your pursuit of knowledge to give you an "edge" in you selection and betting methods, I hope these statistics may have been of some assistance.

Cheers.