NFL 2005/2006
 

The American Football season starts this week with alot of teams looking as though they are a big show. Here are my %chance ratings and comments for each teams chance of winning the Superbowl.

Indianapolis 13% - lost all 5 preseason games but have the best offence in the competition. Unfortunately they have no defence and that is what is needed to win the Superbowl.

New England 11% - Won 3 of the last 4 superbowls and have the best coach in the league. They have lost their offensive and defensive coordinators along with a couple of players. A great team but will be challenged this year.

Philadelphia 11% - Knocking on the door in recent years but keep getting knocked out in the NFC championship game. Have a good coach and quarter back but Tyrell Owens is the key. If he spits the dummy they are no good things whereas if he has a blinder of a year they are a chance.

Carolina 6% - Made the Superbowl final 2 years ago and just went down. Have a good defence and have picked up some good players. Finished year off well last season after suffering major injuries. Big show odds.

Atlanta 6% - Have the best rushing quarterback in the competition and have a well balanced team and good rookie coach. With the NFC not as strong as the AFC they are a good chance to get to the Superbowl.

Baltimore 5% - Dissapointing last year with their number 1 ranked defence. Their offence does not score enough but on paper they look like a well balanced side. Would need to improve but are a good chance.

Pittsburgh 5% - Big improver last year and their defence and quarterback are hot. Have lost a few players but will be better off with last years playoff experience. Good chance but are drawn in the tough AFC division.

Minnesota 5% - Have a great offence but have tried hard to improve their defence in the off season. Lost Randy Moss but have a good QB and always score alot. One of the better chances in the NFC.

New York Jets 5% - Big improver last year and were unlucky not to go further in the playoffs. Have worked hard on improving their defence and their QB is getting better. A big show this year.

Kansas City 3% - No defence

San Diego 3% - Not for me

Buffalo 3% - Expect a good year

Denver 2% - Undefeated preseason but dont like

Seattle 2% - Not with their coach

St Louis 2% - Terrible defence

Jacksonville 2% - Coach is a moron

Dallas 2% - Great coach and with new QB might go OK

Detroit 2% - Smart coach and big impovers this year i fancy

Cincinatti 2% - They are a good smokie at odds

Washington 1% - With an offence they would be good

Oakland 1% - Think they will have a good year

Green Bay 1% - QB has past his better days

New York Giants 1% - Dont rate them

Arizona 1% - Expect a good year from them

New Orleans 1% - Not a bad side but wont win the SB

Tampa Bay <1% - Not expected to have a good season

Houston <1% - A few years off being decent

Miami <1% - Will improve over next few years

Chicago <1% - Not the worst side in it

Tennessee <1% - Lost the plot in recent years

San Francisco <1% - Hopeless

Cleeveland <1% - Rebuilding a competitive side

I've got the top 4 being:
Indianapolis, Carolina, New England, Philadelphia
(not necessarily in that order)

And a roughie:
Detroit

What do you think of those, ATC?

I'm guessing ATC would be alright with this because that is more or less exactly what he said :D

They are my top 4 in ratings Sportz.
Even though Indy have been rated top I would be wary of their defence which is hopeless. If you look at history no superbowl winner has had a bad defence. I think that they are under the odds. New England are well coached and have the best game plan of any side. With the loss of coaching staff and players I think they will come back to the field a little. I rate them highly but would want better odds than currently available. Philadelphia will no doubt be up there again but will have some stiff competition in the NFC this year. They have a great team but TO needs to fire for them to win it. I think 6/1 is under the odds. Carolina are a HUGE chance. I have secured 25/1 about them winning and i still think the 16/1 or so on offer is great value. They have a very good coach, a great defence and have been in the superbowl recently. They were the form side in the latter half of last year after a horror run with injuries. Think they will win their division. As for Detroit i really rate them well. Steve Mariucchi is a good coach and they had a fair year last season. I expect them to win half of their games.

The teams I think represent good value at odds are -

Carolina, Minnesota, Baltimore, New York Jets, Buffalo

Small outside chances that are good value include -

Dallas, Detroit,Cincinatti,Oakland, Arizona


Good Luck with your bets

Cheers
ATC

NFL Week One
 

Ok, the first week of the NFL is pretty much pointless betting on. With no REAL form guide to go on it is extremely hard to pick any certanties (the pre-season is useless) With that being said my two picks of the week are as following.

Philadelphia Eagles win $1.85 vs. Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers -7 $1.91 vs. New Orleans Saints


* Prices from Centrebet
* Home teams in bold

Hey there Assume, Why do you have to bust on my SF 49'ers as "hopeless" yet Cleveland is "rebuilding"?! LOL The Niners are brutal now and were when I was a kid growing up in the 70's. I've always been a fan and caught some flack then but also caught the glory years of Joe Montana--and with Notre Dame Fightin' Irish!!!! I agree with everyones picks but it is pretty obvious how it's gonna play out this year. Throw out the pre season like you said! Also, the Eagles did get to the big game last year and actually covered on a back door cover near the end. They keep inching their way to the title and if QB Donovan McNabb had played better they might have won, so don't discount them. TO has caused alot of dissension this summer, but it will straighten itself out when they start winning, it did in SF when he was acting up, but he did ultimately dismantle the team(idiot). Check out the thread about Pro Sports Betting for my views on this season if you want.

Hi "gridiron" fans


Glad to see a thread started on the NFL. Those of you who read the tennis threads will recall that my situations were based on NFL. Unfortunatly my situations usually pick low priced favs in tennis and thus not suitable for the users of this forum. Pity though as they do produce a profit.

I buy in my NFL tips and get the situations from a book written by one of the top USA tipsters. I have had 4 straight seasons of profits following him. It would be unethical to give his tips here but I would like to contribute to the forum. I bet on totals and the point spread and the following comments refer to point spread betting.

Remember that NFL with its salary cap is a "contrarion" sport to bet on. That is if Detroit beat Green Bay by 7 this week and ST Louis beat SF by 7, the worse thing you can do is assume if Detroit were meeting SF in the following week that Detroit would be a great bet on the spread. NFL doesn't seem to work that way. The teams are pretty even with some exceptions as noted by other forum contributors. Also, a study was done which indicates that 80% of all NFL games are decided by turnovers. The same study also indicated that it is almost impossible to predict turnovers.

It is my opinion as others that "defense" is the key component of finding the Super Bowl winner. Big offenses such as KC and Phily look good, but they seldom get their names on the trophy. I wait until the 4th or 5th round and look at the defensive stats and see if there is value in the best defensive sides.

For week1 I like
DETROIT -3 bt Green Bay
Baltimore +3 bt Phil Eagles

My teams are Green Bay and Buffalo and also like to see Oakland and the 49'ers do well.

Good punting for the season

Karla

G'Day Saratoga,

Sorry to put your 49ers down but i rate them as the 2nd worst team in the comp. Dont worry I follow Tampa Bay who are not much better. Being an Aussie it is hard to keep up with all the ins and outs of the NFL but i like this game better then Australian sports. All my comments are just based on an opinion and im sure you know more about it than i do but my ratings do have some meaning and are based on a statistical model. I do a lot of betting on NFL but more long term on the superbowl winner than individual matches. Agree with you Andrew about Carolina -7 in their first game against New Orleans. The panthers are keen to get off to a good start this year and they are my pick for the superbowl.

Cheers
ATC

Sorry

Correction to my picks
Baltimore -3 to beat Indy

Ass-u-me, (just kidding!) Hey, your opinion on the NFL is just as valid as mine. That's what's great about gambling. Bet if ya feel so strong, is what I always say. I'm glad to see so many Aussies playing the NFL. It is the most wagered on sport in the US by far. It's funny to hear people say, you bet hockey? or you bet baseball? What's the difference!!!! I try to find the best values and easiest spots. Historically, the NFL is very hard to win at long term but it seems like alot of Aussies bet the money line, is this true? This may be the better play long term as teams that cover usually win outright anyway. I was kidding about the Niners. I bust on em now too, but if it weren't for that TO breaking the team apart we might be alright there. He said Quarter Back Jeff Garcia(now with Detroit) likes men. When in fact, it's pretty widely ASS-U-MED that TO likes the guys. Alot of people in Philly don't know that, but being a Niners fan it was OUT there along time ago.I started thinking about the league this year and believe the Oakland Raiders have a legitimate shot of getting there this year. They got WR Randy Moss in the off season and he'll be able to do any kind of antics he wants on that team as long as they JUST WIN BABY! (that was there slogan in the 70's). They were getting a little old and started to young up. They also have Kerry Collins who has been to the big game and has veteran capabilities although he is by no means a super star. Plus he likes beer! Come to think of it, NFL QB's seem to have alot of substance abuse probs. Must be the pressure. Brett Favre (gotta love him now that the Niners suck) had the painkiller thing and former 1st pick overall Todd Marinovich(QB) somehow managed to get kicked off the bad boy Oakland Raiders for smokin' pot. How's ganja man Randy Moss gonna make it then? Oh yeah Ricky Williams is back in the league after taking last year off to live in a tent (IN AUSTRALIA I THINK!!!!) and smoke up and read a bunch of books. He said he'd rather do that than play football.

Hey guys, what happened to my beloved Tampa Bay Buccs? Followed them since 78 liked the Salmon bros...not sure what happened after their stint at the SBowl...took a liking to NFL after reading about the real mean machine with Mean Joe Greene, Randy White and cant remember the others in the Great Pittsburgh Steelers (now there was a team)...was an Earl Campbell and Franco Harris fan in the 70's for running backs and later followed the great Montana...Marino and Favre...

Love the game and it looks like theres some opportunities to wager and win too lol! Good luck for the season!:)

Good oppurtunities to Wager AND win too. LOL!!!! Good one Desi ya old man. Your showing your age just like me. I hated the Steelers back then because they always won!!! They were great though and now I like that team alot. Again Mr. Irony over here in the states has something, Randy White (the manster) of the Dallas Cowboys is from, you guessed it, little old Delaware (second smallest state in the US). Heck, we're only about 100 miles long and 15 wide at the top and 25 at the bottom. Very small but we got heart! Just look at all the talent that comes out of here. Randy White, Rich Gannon, Anthony Anderson (of your Pittsburgh Team) - my fat buddy Duke who works at Delaware Park used to be faster than him when they both played at Temple-now he ways 300 lbs. His real name is Delmar. The Niners have a kid from Newark High named Kwajme or something like that who is pretty good too. See, we're like the Rodney Dangerfield of states and get busted on all the time, even though Rhode Island is smaller. How many athletes do they have?????????????

Desi I also have to respect your loyalty to the Bucs as they really stunk it up for a long time. I can only think of one team who was ever that bad and I've always been loyal to them. I loved John Brodie and Gene Washington and OJ Simpson for that matter ( hey, he might have been the best running back ever so ya can't deny him that, just throw him in jail). That's when the league was great!!!! Steve Spurrier used to QB the Niners after Brodie and now I can't stand him. TB lost the man, John Gruden. He was the reason for their success. THe only coach in the league with guts enough to tell some cry baby superstar (Keyshawn Johnson) to pound sand, we don't need you. Gruden really called his bluff. Keyshawn yeah or neah Des?

NFL Week one Game one LOST ONE! The Oakland Raider's, misled by QB Kerry Collins' fumble on his own 8 yd line, along with WR Randy Moss' three dropped passes that led to the Raiders having to punt, and usually reliable Field Goal Kicker and date rape drug mixer, Sebastian Janikowski missing a common 39 yard field goal helped the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (- 7-= -7 1/2 pts.) win and cover the spread 30-20 in the NFL's season opening game at Foxboro Stadium (or whatever corporation is calling the stadium their's now) in Foxboro, Massachusetts outside Boston. This was NE's 20th straight win at home and the Raider's 10th season opening loss in the last 11 years.

NE was led by QB TOM BRADY's usual mistake-free game and the same for the rest of the Patriots' team as well.

I still feel I had the right side in this game and am not surprised I took a bad beat here. It happened in the playoffs two years ago as well but this time the Raiders had no referee's to blame. Coach Norv Turner will whip this rag tag bunch of misfits into a lean and mean fighting machine by season's half point. Beware the line value though as OAK is somewhat a public team becaause of their bad boy attitude. Squeaky clean Tom Brady and the NE PATS are definitely the class of the AFC and should be tough to beat outright, but if they get points once this season I would be surprised. They have a tough couple of weeks ahead of them with road games at Carolina, Pittsburgh, Atlanta,and Denver while playing at home only one more time (San Diego on October 2) before late OCT! Look to play against them in these upcoming weeks. They will make or break their season in this scheduling fluke--that gives them a huge advantage in the frozen weather of NE in late NOV and DEC. Wonder who the NFL is routing for?????

Isn't it funny, Saratoga how one's bet can determine how one views an outcome. Lucky me, was on New England (-7.5) and I can't agree that the Oakland loss was a "bad beat". It could be argued over a friendly (and I stress friendly) beer that the difference was a missed 39 yard field goal that would have gotten you the smiles instead of me. However NE did miss a point-after which would have made the difference 8 points. Also the last 6 pointer was a bit of a gift as the Pats were into time management and not worried about giving up a TD. If you take away the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes it was 30-7 being Oakland only had 1 73 yard score. DEpends which side of the field you are on.


Arguing over spilt milk is good over the beer, but what I really like about your post is your indication of the future for these 2 teams. Written them down in the little black book as I think you are spot on. Oakland looked terrific in that first drive and a couple of held catches could have really opened up the running game for them. I don't think it will be too long before they catch a weak defensive by surprise and score big time. Their defense did look vulnerable but the 2nd half as you point out could have gone in a different direction if not Collins made the turnover. Oaklnd receiving points could be good. The stats show total yards was Oak 351 to NE 379, so the stats were very close and you are right, the turnover made all the difference to the momentum of the match.

The Pats looked very good and to my mind have plenty of improvement in them. But, as you say a tough schedule coming up and if the line makers follow the press, we may see 12 point spreads which are very difficult for a road team to cover.

Enjoyed your write-up and hope you have time to give us more. I think you are in the USA so you may be interested to know that down here we get the Sunday Night and Monday night games on ESPN pacific and Fox does 1 game either live or a replay on our Monday morning. After the NRL and AFL seasons are over in November they will show two. This week we are getting Detroit and the Packers. Biggest trouble is its hard to get real excited as 6 am is too early for having that beer.

Hey Karla! You're right about who you have swaying your opinion, but I do usually remain objective in these matters. I wouldn't call the OAK loss a real bad beat, but I just wanted to stress the game was a lot closer than the final indicates. The FG really wasn't the determining factor either like you said, but if Oak makes a few less mistakes the game changes. i didn't play them very heavy,even though I did love 'em. I'm glad you won, too. NE schedule is strange but it could really help them in the cold december conference games.


I figured that you would get the night games down under, but I thought they would start at like 10 am or 11 am (14 hour diff???) How many time zones between Mel and Perth??? and how many hours???

6 am is too LATE for having that beer!!! LOL

12 noon in New York is 2 am on east coast of OZ and 11 pm in perth.


So det/gb kicks off at 6 am, just in time for breakfast.

you should be in bed now, california dreamin'

Good analysis by both of you, im so glad i found a place were i can discuss betting and more in general NFL. Oak's secondary worries me a bit, but pretty impressive performances by both teams.

Im going to try and get up for the packers game but i dont know if im that enthusiastic this early into the season.

Rams -5.5 is a steal against the horrible niners, i expect them to win no more than 4 games this season.

Darn Andrew! Does everybody in OZ have to bust on my once proud 49'ers?!?!?!
LOL!!!!! They are terrible but those kind of teams play loose and sometimes are quite overvalued due to a favorite betting public, so tread carefully when giving points to bad teams. I made a living for 20 years with those kind of players. But you are probably right in this one. OAKLAND is not as good as I initally felt, but they still are eligible to improve and may get some decent prices. So the game you get on Monday morning is actually our 4 PM Eastern game. I thought they would show the Sunday night game as it would be on at 10 AM for E. OZ. LAte enought to quaff a few brewskis before heading into work. FAAHSTERS. Austrialian for breakfast! LOL

My bets for Week 1 of the NFL-

Detroit -3 @ 1.91 is my best bet

I have also had small wagers on the following -

New York Giants @ 1.65
Denver @ 1.53
Buffalo @ 1.45
Seattle +3 @ 1.93


Tough opening round to start proceedings.
Good Luck with your bets.

Cheers
ATC

111
 

I had small bets on the Rams and Carolina, both lost :( Dont like to bet big in the opening weeks though. Im considering putting a unit on the eagles tomorrow.

BTW SS, well done to the niners, they completely surprised me, and they did it all without Eric Johnson.

Thanks Andrew. I bet them small as I really didn't like too much in our 4 o'clock games. I did like the KC chiefs alot but didn't play them. i touted four games on the horse board but luckily only bet the 2 winners from there! I didn't want to bet 4 games, too much vig. So I ended up 3-0 on real small bets, but that helps for the Oakland debacle THursday, E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES! I can't stand em! Birds vs Birds on monday night football!!!! I have to look it over today to see who I like. ALL day long they'll talk about it on our Philly sports station WIP 610 AM. Listen on the net if you want to hear some real opinionated idiots! ONly in Philly! YO ADRIAN!!!!!!!!!!

LMAO :D

Congrats on your wins. Whats your opinion of the Monday night game? I havent seen much of the falcons or eagles this preseason. Wagering anything?

Sorry Andrew, I just got in. I bet the Falcons at +2 1/2. they look good so far. the eagles missed a fiel goal and the falcons threw an interception deep in the philly zone. McNabb took a huge hit and was a bit shaken up. looks like an under game at 0-0 half way through the 1st quarter. Get a second half play on Atlanta because if the Eagles get frustrated, which it looks like will happen, they will implode!

I'm heading up to the South Philly Turf Club to route against the Eagles! This could be ugly.

TOUCHDOWN ATLANTA. Michael Vick ran one in from 10 yards out!! They are gonna kill the Eagles.

...
 

Well Falcons won 14-10, nice game. I didnt end up betting on the game, decided to cut my losses from the Sunday games.

Assumethecorwn,i assume you know your NFL? Is this your speciality? Ive never backed NFL before,but might give it a try

Hi Thefan,

I do the majority of my sportsbetting on the NFL and have made some handsome returns in the past. Coming from Australia I dont know a heap about the game compared to our American friends on this forum (saratoga) but i do follow it big time. I have used a statistical model in the past to predict season and match outcomes with great success. I will post some results from my analysis from time to time to share with others. The model is more accurate later on in the season when it has more data to take into account so i would be wary of its predictions this early in the season.

Cheers
ATC

Yes ATC,I think ive seen you around in other forums 'punting ace' perhaps. Hope to learn something from you this NFL season since our footy season is nearly over. Good luck and I hope to get a few tips off ya.

early thoughts on week2
 

Not giving any tips at this point but lookng at the early lines, I wonder if there is any opinions.

My thoughts

Green Bay -6.5. After scoring only 3 points and showing nothing it is hard to see how the Pack can give anybody 6.5.

Philly -13.5 Wow, 13.5 loser against a winner. Philadelphia needs to do everything right and not create any turnovers. think its too early in the season for that kind of line?

Det -2.5 Chicago doesn't seem to have an offense and the way DEtroit shut down GB running game may point to a Detroit win.

STL- Arizona - This is the Fox TV game. ST Louis came back strong and Arizona got beat by 20+ . ST Louis could be a good pick.

NY Giants -3 New Orleans were aided by a extra terrestial forces to beat Carolina. Doubt if that will happen again.

I wouldn't follow my tips for big money but I would like to see some NFL activity so I will offer my tips on week 2.

Week1 1-1

Miami +6 bt NY Jets. - the word is that Miami is better than first thought and their win against Denver had merit. These AFC contests can sometimes be very defense. The 6 points for Miami looks generous.

Detroit -1 bt Chicago - Chicago's offensive stats looked terrible against a not so good Washington side. They got their only TD from a turnover. Detroit didn't look that great either but at least scored. The Lions won both their games over the Bears last year and I think they can do it again.

NY Giants -3 bt New Orleans The Giants were all over Arizona last week while NO got a lucky win over Carolina. I doubt that NY will cough up the ball 4 times like Carolina did. If the turnovers are equal and the Saints have come down off their Katrina high, the Giants should get the spread at home.

St Louis +1 bt Arizona St Louis only got going in the 2nd half against SF and almost pulled it off while Arizona looked pretty bad against NY Giants. The Rams have a pretty lousy road record but Arizona sems to love paying big money for over the hill players. I think their purchase of Kurt Warner is another mistake and if anyone should know how to defend against Warner it should be the Rams. If St Louis comes to play, then they should win.

Just for fun i might have a small go at the Home-Dogs (with the points) this weekend.
1. +3.5 Tennessee $1.962
2. +4.5 Houston $1.990
3. +1 Chicago $2.01
4. +3 Carolina $1.935

I have very little knowledge of the NFL, but let's see how we go.
Good Luck

Agree with most of your thoughts for Week 2 Karla.
My bets for this week are -

Detroit @ 1.91 (best bet)
San Diego @ 2.30
Tampa Bay @ 1.77


Good Luck with your bets

Cheers
ATC

Hey everybody, Good luck in week 2. I haven't had a chance to do uch handicapping this week. As we speak the Eagles just scored a TD one minute into the game against my 49'ers. I'm glad i didn't go to that game.

ATC, I'm very interested in your system's results, even early on. Post the stats as soon as you have any time, that way we can jump on board when it looks to get rolling big time. I have a nice system/trend that used to be AWESOME in it's results but had slowed down a little as of 2 years ago. I didn't follow it last year, but I am thinking about jumping back on it. It involves teams playing 3 games (OR MORE--very rare) in a row against their own division and their next game out of division. I hate to say it, but I can't remember whether you play against or with this team?!!? I will dig it up and post the games that apply. Obviously, there aren't any yet in week 2.

ATC and others, Don't knock your skill in handicapping the NFL. From what I've read here, you are as astute as most of the regular ninnies in the US that used to provide me with a nice living. Keep reading as much as you can and asking questions about things you don't understand and you will continue with that edge. That's what i do with the Aussie horse racing.

Karla: I hope you didn't play against those Eagles (28-0 early 2nd Q!!! UGH!)


My 4:00 o'clock plays:

Under St. L/Ariz***
Under Cle/GB***
Cle+6 *
Under KC/Oak**night
Oak+1*night

FYI----There are 2 Monday night football games this week(NY Giants vs. NO Saints 7:30 + Wash vs Dallas 9:00)

Well as a wise man once said...

"Even the sun shines on a dogs ass every now and again"

3 from 4 for Home Dog system this week, a fluke perhaps but i'll take it nontheless. Awesome displays by the Eagles, Pittsburgh and Carolina. I know it's early but the Steelers, based on current form, would have to be some chance to go all the way this year.

Hey, who's using my good old home dogs system??? :D

Yes, i'll admit i certainly didn't formulate the idea.

Just stole it from ya Sportz, sorry and thanks. Hope to follow it in the NFL, went well this weekend.