Epsom and Metrop discussions!
 

I thought we should start discussing the big races well beforehand so as to allow for sufficient debate.

Just had a look at the metrop, and i don;t see how stormhill isnt the better bet over railings. Stormhill beat railing 2 (maybe 3) starts ago and yet railings is 4 points shorter. Sure since then railings has shown great form and should hold the edge over stormhill, but by that much?

Perlin is currently at 17's, that looks ok.

As for the epson, 8 bucks for collate, thats huge. I didnt see celebritys sun on saturday but i heard he got all the favours and shania was boxed in only to go down narrowly. The only querry over paratroopers is can he just keep on winning. And the one i am going to spec at 15's is outback prince. He has already proven himself by winning a group one, he will be cherry ripe for the epsom.

Should be speed in the race with collate, lotteria, paratroopers etc going forward. Johans toy (big run last time), Danni and ikes come into it. Gonna be a great race.

Post some viewpoints,


Cheers,
Matt

Railings will win the metrop easy......

As for the Epsom (which a horse i owned won) i think Lotteria or Shania Dane will pull through, but not sure - just some early thoughts

Perlin and Vouvray certainly look the value to me. Railings is a good horse but didn't beat much at the weekend, will probably be overhyped in betting terms to an unbackable price.

As for the Epsom, what a field. This one's gonna be a beauty. I am lost at this stage, Paratroopers is really impressive, Shania Dane really unlucky on the weekend, Lotteria, Collate, Outback Prince, Johans Toy, El Segundo. The mind boggles!

Dane Hero and Stratum $61 & $51 respectively - who woulda thought you'd see those two at those odd's.

I'm flipped if i can seperate them at this stage.

My thinking exactly re: railings mad. Top, top chance but unders. As with vouvray, tink the cups are her main target, not sure if she will be fully wound up.

dance hero should be 200's. couldn't run 1600m down a mine shaft. I like Paratroopers if he starts. He's a really nice horse i think.Johan's toy, danni martine, studebaker, outback prince are included in my of chances. might risk the favourites Lotteria and Mr celebrity.

Oh, don;t think dance hero can run out a strong mile in a pressure race against this opposition. Stratum is being aimed at the caulfield guineas (isnt he?), callow goes onto stratum and i think that could be a turning point for this horse. Stratum needs to be stoked up and callow is a better choice than boss for this type of ride.

Hughey Bowman on racing retro last night gave outback prince the thumbs up. Said fitness gave out over last 50, be much better for the run though. At good odds will be a decent e/w chance.

LMAO @ UMRUM.

I think i might have an eachway on it myself tommorow mad. It had obviously been set for the race and will be peaking for it.

Yep, i'll happily take on Mr Celebrity with ya umrum. Shania Dane nearly got him after being blocked for a decent run a coupla times on the weekend. Lotteria, not sure. Always there or there abouts and at home always a risk.

Dance Hero shouldn't start in the epsom but back him at your own peril over 1600m.

I couldn't believe so many people were willing to tip him in the George Main.

Hey Umrum, try to remember to make changes to your Fantasy stable this week. :o

thanks mate, i will do my best
lucky your on the ball ;)

I'm agreeing with ya! Funny analogy is all.

Top choice for me at this stage,
Shania Dane, Paratroopers, Lotteria and Outback Prince.

Closely followed by:
El Segundo, Stratum, Battle Maiden, Johans Toy and Nevis

no worries mate. lmao@umrum rather than lmao umrum is where the misinterpretation occured. all good :) Dont disagree with your top few picks gee it's a tough race. Cant have stratum, battle maiden or nevis tho.
as for the mineshaft analogy i live in perth but i'm originally a kalgoorlie boy ;)



cheers
umrum

Kalgoorlie eh, good spot that. Drove from Adelaide to Perth a coupla years back and stopped over for a few frothies. Very friendly barmaids in lingerie if i remember correctly - nearly didn't make it to Perth after that!

Battle Maiden and Nevis probably weak links. As for Stratum he ran on well at Moonee Valley on Friday finishing a length or so behind the winner at his first attempt at the distance. I'll give him another chance, see how he goes.

But you're right it is a tough race, any of those selections could win. Might be a case for backing a couple at good early odds.

Finally i should rephrase my earlier post,
LMAO Umrum, Good analogy - funny!
Hows that?

I amnot sure who is going to the Epsom but I thought I read somewhere that Calveen is going to the race and if she is she has to be a chance in the race, She showed 1st up she can real off an amazing sectional in a race where it looks there is alot of speed in looks good odds at 26-1 aslong as it is dry in sydney. I know I did say last week I willnot back Outback Prince again but with a good draw he will be a chance wouldn't be taking anything under 10-1 about him though. I thought Utzon might be good E/W value if he made the field some how.


The Metrop looks a better race than it has been recently might actually be worthy of it's lofty status this year. Railings looks a good horse and although he is shorts don't undersell this horse he will stay all day long the only reason that Stormhill beat him to starts ago was the massive start he had to give him won't be that margin this time I don't think. If Vouvray goes to the race she is a chance but I doubt she will be even there, Mahtoum has been running super and has to be a chance he is however concedeing a bit of weight to some good horses there. My roughie would be Douro Valley was a temendous return make no mistake about it just might be a run short for this.

Just saw the replay of the George Main.

Nevis wasn't to far away (4th) from Mr Celebrity/Shania/Outback Prince at the weekend. Don't know if he can improve on the run though.

A few horses have been mentioned at odds which seem to be very juicy, but this is simply because they are VERY unlikely to run.

Rizon was another I liked the look of e/w in the metrop if they are going this way have like what he has done so sar this prep and getting out to a suitable distance now in a handicap.

:o For some reason I thought that you missed out on getting your changes in last month, but I just checked and you didn't. It was BJ and luv2bet who missed out.

So to BJ and luv2bet, try to remember this month. :)

think i did mine at the last minute sportz

hey fellas in the metrop i like the look of Zingam. i backed him last week at 70's when he got home to run 5th after bein trapped in the straight. however i think hes a tad unders at 6/1 second fave and after winning at kembla today with 61 i dont know whether he'll back up. i also like natural blitz as an outside chance

in the epsom i like paratroopers...i know its questionable whether he can just keep winning but i think this horse is the best in the field. have never liked mr celebrity and lotteria...just dont think they can win an epsom and johans toy looks great odds

Lotteria will be ridden off the speed this week (a really good option IMO) and is looking very hard to beat at decent odds ($9 fixed price with Colin Tidy). Drawn nicley in barrier six and can decide where she wants to be. Big heart this one. Collate the danger along with about ten or so others...........

In the Metrop I'm going for value with Don Raphael - very ordinary first three runs back but last week's fourth after getting shuffled back on the turn was a big effort. Like the way it hit the line and meets Railings better at the weights ( .5kg . big whoops you might say). If it can rediscover it's best form it is a big chance at huge odds. Have a nibble I say.

I like Utzon, Outback Prince & Perfect Promise for the Epsom in what should be a fantastic race with plenty of value. As far as the Metrop goes Railings is getting out to pretty decent odds now if he is anywhere near the 5-1 mark come Saturday then it could be great value. Stormhill & Run Rita Run look dangers then I thought the best value in the race would be Kindjhal, Bhandara and maybe Mahtoum the weight does worry me a bit though he is concedeing to some nice horses here.

Agree with ya there on the Run Rita Run call Raw. Ran a real close second to Railings last time around, another ten metres she woulda' had him. A chance at good odds you'd think, surely e/w at least.

I have decided i like men at work.

Can anyone see pendragon getting beaten in the spring chamption. I just can't see it getting beaten. Back it now for the 2006 cox plate. Dream ballad might have a tiny sneaky chance but away from that....???? Anything over odds on looks generous.

There's a NZ horse called Darci Brahma who may just have a big say in the 2006 Cox Plate.

Go Collate!!!

Huge win in the cameron over mr celeb. why cant he do it again? looked like he would get 1600 in the cameron also

Go Railings!!!

tried to give stormhill far too big a lead last time, this wont happen again. Zingham is only ordinary


Go Dream Ballard!!!

I don't rate pendragon. he always looks really good at the start of the straight but he doesnt run past them like he should. Dream Ballard is on the way up n i think he will win

Does any of you know who is the jockey for Railing, Don R and Run Rita Run (RRR) sound like Brazalian strike force?

bell, beadman and ford respectively

Thanks Umrum,

Just don't understand why Beadman is on Don rather than Railings.

sorry
beadman is on railings
bell on don raphael
ford on rrr

Thanks. Umrum.

Have 4 selections in mind for the Metro.

Stormhill - Was not really impressed with his last win as Railing was reeling up quite fast and with additional 400m might cost him a win here.
Railing - Barrier 16 might be too wide but reel up well on his last run.
Men at work - Barrier 14 the only concern.
Run Rita Run - Concern on the jockey.

Have 2 selection in Epsom
Lotteria - Good distance and track record. Regular jockey.
Perfect Promise - Did well to run second behind Paratroopers. jockey a concern.

Any advice.

Yozman did you see him win last start. He sat 3 wide and cruised past them effortlessly. It wouldn;t suprise me to see him in amongst the top 5 horses next year. 2000 is perfect, has the cummings stayer polish.