Percentage Punters
 

I am unashamably a percentage punter!
I will invest in a manner which puts the odds in my favour every time.
I have seen the "big" punters come and go and most end up broke!
I favour "dutch-betting" and quite regularly will invest in strategic place-betting when there is value to make it worth my while.
I will also utilise flexi-betting(NSW) when I can identify the possibility of an "edge" in my investments(ie. for the exotics).
I am also a form student and will "pounce" on any "overs" which I have identified as being too good to be true. I highlight the fact that innumerous opportunities present themselves each week, especially at the lesser meetings, when, due to the lower turnover, bookmakers are prepared to offer more generous prices which the "percentage punter" will utilise to their advantage.
Any other form students or casual punters out there who operate in a similar manner?
Without giving your "secrets" away, maybe, you could share your general approach to your race investments/strategies.
Looking forward to your opinions/views on your investment methods.

Cheers.

I Definitely look for overs xanadu. two weeks ago had three bets for the day.

Sir dex straight out @ $12 ran 4th was paying $3.80 a drum
Sky cuddle straight out @ $26 ran 3rd paid 7.20 a drum
All up place - sir dex into sky cuddle.

was spewing sir dex got pipped for 3rd
that's racing tho

Having said that I am a big believer in backing the class runner/s in the race.
Like you i am not scared to dutch either.
Also like standing out my top pick to win in tri's then having quite a few in 2nd and 3rd.
I mainly bet straight out tho

xanadu, if you are betting to percentages, then I assume you have a fairly high turnover. Approx, how many bets would you have & do you punt everyday?

umrum - when I am investing for the place I will often utilise a 3,4 or 5 all-up or parlay to maximise my returns. Remember, that each new bet starts off another sequence so a run of 8 successful place-getters(which is not uncommon with a bit of care and vigilance) will return four completed sequences...12345,23456,34567, 45678 etc.
It seems that you have a good insight into how this conservative approach can return good percentage divs. Remember that dutch-betting can also apply to quinellas, exactas and trifectas and flexi-betting has made this a lot easier. Good luck to you!
the freek-yes, I bet everyday so obviously employ a relatively conservative approach to my wagering. For the observant punter there are many opportunities to secure "overs" whether they be by way of win, place-betting, or percentage wagering on the exotics. In relation to turnover I definitely do not chase losses but employ methods similar to other forum contributors who minimise their exposure to huge losses on any particular day. As I have stated previously, I invest in "units" and increase the size of my units when I am on a winning streak-similarly, if I am an on a losing sequence I will adjust the value of my units accordingly to a percentage of my "bank," as outlined by other contributors - at all times retaining control over my wagering and having a predetermined plan to minimise losses if that happens.
Let's face it, some days photo finishes go against us and cost us plenty.
The number of bets I have each day depends purely on how things are going, 8 -10 perhaps but if I see opportunities at the trots in the evening I will bet on and I may end up having 15 -16 bets. Definitely not in the league of Australia's biggest punter who reportedly has a turnover > $100MIL p.a. and again, reportedly, is content to reap a POT of between 2-5% yet I feel these figures may be somewhat unreliable.
With respect to place-betting I have wagered on a runner paying $3.5wand $2.4pl yet by post-time it has shortened to $2.8w and $1.2pl but that's the way it goes. The name of the game in punting is to be a "survivor" and even if the final dividend is a bit "skinny" you have retained your funds to reinvest on the next possibility.

Cheers.

Some overs on saturday available in the epsom:

Johans Toy
Danni Martine
Utzon

all represent great value i believe.


Xanadu
agree about the parlay, great form of betting. Over here in the west if we want to parlay we have to do it manually. Hopefully that will change soon when the tabs merge completely.

yeah umrum,

I usually invest manually on my parlays also as I bet race-to-race and just calculate my bets accordingly.
When I do my form study for the weekend races I will keep an eye on those runners you highlighted. I like Danni Martine but over the years the Epsom has provided a number of longshot winners so maybe ther is another lurking there down in the weights....we just have to find them.

Cheers.

Xanadu,
Thanks for sharing your approach and some insight into professional betting...whilst not a professional by any means...I do bet more than the average punter and am in the process of combining a ratings system and video analysis to hopefully come up with some value bets for the day...I have not yet worked out a satisfactory and profit maximisation betting strategy but getting there...

I was wondering if you could explain to me what a 'parlay' bet is and also specifically what does a 'dutch' bet mean also? Please excuse my ignorance...

Desi

yeah g'day Desi,

in repect of NSW the punter can take a four leg "parlay" for win or place which gives him/her the opportunity of having 11 individual all up bets:
1)1 all up2 all up3 all up4
2)1 " 2 " 3
3)1 " 2 " 4
4)1 " 3 " 4
5)2 " 3 " 4
6)1 " 2
7)1 " 3
8)1 " 4
9)2 " 3
10)2 " 4
11)3 " 4
As you can see, if you get two or three divs you can still win and if you get the 4 up then you can get a motza! Obviously there are variations to the example as shown above but space is limited but I hope you get the general idea. As per above the successful punter can get a four runner all up, 4 three runner all ups and 6 two leg all-up dividends. As you can see even the conservative punter can build a nice return for a relatively modest outlay.
Dutch betting is wagering on several runners to return a set amount, say 100:
eg. 2/1 = 33
3/1 = 25
4/1 = 20
as you can see, if any of the runners are successful you have a return of 100 units for an outlay of 78 units = 28% POT avery nice ROI.
Hope this helps. Give this method of wagering some thought.
Just one point to remember about this conservative method of wagering-yes, you do require a high percentage of winners/place-getters to achieve your goal but with a sound selection method, patience and a solid betting approach the percentage punter can return a respectable ROI.

Cheers.

The way I see it, all parlay betting does is multiply the punter's disadvantage by rolling each winner into the next. The 14.5% grab is taken in each leg. Quadrella, Treble and Doubles betting are far more attractive to serious punters looking to minimise the edge as there is only one commission, albeit a little higher than the win and place juice.

Let's say you have four 1.70 chances picked out for a place parlay. That is, 1.70 is the real price. The TAB takes its cut and it is now 1.45 or 1.40 rounded. A successful parlay in all four legs will return 26.58 by the TAB when in reality the real price is 45.34. Any punter prepared to take such drastic unders must fail.

The other pitfall is the price of the final selection should the first three get up, especially betting on small meetings. I have seen 10/1 shots come up at 1.10 following the influence of all up betting. Again, those sorts of unders mean certain failure in the long run.

So if you are fair dinkum, bet single commission exotics or if you like win betting, concentrate on Sydney Metro top fluc betting ( near 100% ) or Betfair.

Reading what you guys are saying is very interesting and christ knows you must have plenty of time on your hands :) which has been my biggest problem in doing up some type of ratings system or anything, I simply don't have the time to do it. I am a big fan of Trifectas, Trebles, Quinellas and All Ups in my exotic betting, However I will only have the treble if there looks to be tough races (maybe 2 legs where there are 15 horse fields or something to that degree) or even better when there looks to be a horse which is very short in a decent sized field that looks vulnerable. It doesn't always work out well and god knows I have seen the photo go the wrong way plenty of times and even the odd protest leaving me gutted and scratching my head.

Trifectas I usually will not consider even doing in a field of less than 12 just don't feel there is enough value there for the outlay in anything smaller the Turnbull and the Epsom look great trifecta races this weekend. Quinellas are usually something I will resort to if I have a race where I like a couple of horse at nice odds and will couple it with what I feel is the best of the shorter priced horses for what can be a nice divi when things aren't going quite right. All ups are something I don't do very often and it is usually only about a $10 bet if I do it had one a couple of years ago taken on the 1st leg on protest when Choisir was relegated on the last day of the flemington carnival I can't remember what the other 3 horses were that I had for the win 2 of them were Spinning Hill and Delago Brom I think my memory isn't the greatest though I just remember the payout would have been about $10,000 because the last 2 legs were the 2 that were big odds hence not effecting the odds as much aswell as being a big day.


As far as backing horses I usually go straight out I don't have a big bank only bet on the weekends mainly because I work everyday and saturday is the day where I can just sit back and enjoy the races. I have thought about place betting and god knows I have seen plenty of horses I have liked run a good place paying in excess of $5 for a place only to have backed them straight out.

I will ask one question guys out of exotics style betting which do you find more successful Trebles or Trifectas? my father has said to me on more than one occasion he prefers trebles because it is a hell of alot easier to pick a winner than it is to pick the placegetters in races so many times something you wouldn't even look at gets a place.

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always had more success with tri's. I find far too often get two legs up in trebles. Usually dont box tri's though so mainly have tri's when confident of getting 1st place right thengo for value in the next two placings. Got the manikato tri doing this. Tho got done when i had dea, timbourina and just a tad stood out for first and second but left out catscan. Tri paid seven grand.
In regards to all up's taking your divy, it's just the same as backing each individual using your winnings. If you have 4 win bets on a saturday, your losing 14.5% takeout on each bet just as you are in the all up. If you have a quadie or treble then you are only subject to one 20% takeout but your unsure of final payout because it is pooled.

cheers

Just to clarify my all up bet it was actually Derby day told you I have a bad memory

And the 4 Horses were Choisir, Miss Zoe, Rubitano & Delago Brom.

RAW INSTINCT, many moons ago I used to play the trifectas, this was when minimum bet was $1. I used to box 9 runners ($504 per bet). my turnover was quite high but landed numerous $5000- $10000 payouts, as soon as they introduced 50 cent units it knocked the stuffing right out of the divies. I think now with flexie betting this is more so the case. I now tend to bet Trebles more now, & as Hammers said there is not the multiple TAB takeouts as with allups & parlays.

xanadu,

Are you a professional gambler? you certainly sound like one.
if so what sort of percentage of profit per outlay do you get on average?
Do you outlay bigtime?

Percentage punting takes the fun out of gambling because it takes away the chance of having a really big win

Thanks Xanadu for the info...never had a parlay bet nor tried the dutch style of betting (altho I might have a saver on an ew if going hard on a relative fave)...can you combine place and win bets or do they have to be all place or all win on a parlay?

Hammers is spot on with his logic there.
Pure mathematics dictates savings on TAB take-outs when playing exotics.
Always gets me why punters give up when they have selected the winner.
Usually the weight/formlines that have pointed you to a winner have got you a long way down the track, to picking second and third placegetters as well.
Most punters do the form in the last 5 minutes prior to a race, and consequently the eventual winner gets backed in noticeably.
Doubles etc lock you in at a fixed price an hour earlier.
Trebles versus trifectas- They say it's easier to pick 3 winners in one race than 3 different races, however if your selection is likely to be heavily backed late then trebles etc offer value. Try 'em both and stat. the long term effects.
I'll average over 300 bets daily aiming for a single digit percentage profit.
The crux of the matter is then to "slice and dice" your betting history so that you know your best weekdays, months, classes, bet types, tracks, states, agegroups, odds range, even hours of the day.

G'day percentage players:
Hammers-you make very good points and they are logical and warrant further scrutiny.
Desi-it's just like all-up betting, the punter can take win or place options.
Yozman- as I said earlier, I am principally a form student who employs a professional approach to my wagering. I stress that I am nowhere in the league of some of the leviathan punters we read and hear so much about. I make the point that even if you are a modest or small punter if you employ these solid betting methods your ROI will improve giving you the option of increasing your wagering stake.
As far as taking the fun out of betting I believe the opposite is true for me. Don't you get a great sense of satisfaction if you get "overs" about a particular runner? Also, to be in control of my wagering at all times means that I do not panic when the inevitable losing streak is encountered. When I have a losing day I do not necessarily attempt to recoup all losses in one bet. I gradually win back the losses bit by bit sticking to my strategy. As I stated earlier, when I am losing I usually diminish my wagers-don't you think this has logic-increase wagers when you are winning and decrease wagers when in a losing sequence?
Patezza-similarly, I input all my betting activities on a spreadsheet and analyse the results. This proved helpful to me as I identified that my wagering on the greyhounds was costing me money. The result is that now I rarely wager on the dogs unless there is excellent value.
Hope you are all successful today and can begin to implement those bank-building strategies.

Cheers.

Xanadu,

I have never been able to grasp the logic of betting less in a "losing streak" and more in a "winning streak". The questions I pose are these ...

1. What is a winning streak? Is it showing higher than average profit over a certain period? Is it backing three winners in a row? You may be "winning" over a period of 100 bets but losing over a period of 25. Similar logic applies to losing runs.

2. How do you know when a losing/winning streak is going to end? Betting less would indicate you expect the losing run to continue and therefore I ask, why bet at all?

3. Why put more on a horse you rate an even money chance simply because you are having a good trot as opposed to a smaller bet on a horse you also rate evens because you are experiencing a losing trot? The only time this logic would apply would be if there were insufficient funds in your punting bank. If that is the case, then the bet size as a whole should be reviewed or your bank increased to accomodate losing runs. To bet less simply because you are down on your luck smacks of gimmicky punting, not professional.

I operate two banks for two different bet types I have. One is high strike rate, the other low but with excellent average win prices. I bet 1% of my bank on Bank A where my strike rate is around 29% and 0.5% on Bank B where my strike rate is 19%. At the end of each month I take profits and start again with the same bank level thus ensuring the same bet percentage and size. The bank is sufficiently large to accomodate even the worst expected losing runs and there is never a need to make irrational or emotional decisions. If I started making decisions on the run and adjusting bet size, I would immediately question my approach and stop betting.

Hammers,

You may have misinterpreted what I said. I certainly do not adjust the size of my wagers "on the run." As I invest a certain percentage of my betting bank the amount of available funds determines the size of the next bet. Therefore whether I am in a winning or losing sequence is reflected in the increasing/decreasing balance of my bank and logically the size of my next bet...this takes the emotion out of wagering and keeps everything on an even keel...no panic when things aren't necessarily going to plan.
Similar to you I may take dividends at regular intervals if I so desire although I review my betting weekly from Sunday to Saturday. As i input all my activities onto a spreadsheet I am able to monitor if a losing trend is being experienced- it is similar to charting on the stock exchange which is my other pastime/vocation.
As for your Point3 that would be a ridiculous proposition wouldn't it....where did you get that from?

Cheers.