Makybe Diva WILL win the Melbourne Cup
 

Okay, I'm not basing this on her form which is most certainly strong enough in any case. This is what I'm basing it on:

When TAB Sportsbet opened their betting on the Melbourne Cup this year, they ran a special promotion. For a short period of time, they offered a special price of $21 about both Vinnie Roe and Makybe Diva. Loads of people jumped on quickly. Well, silly me, for some reason I actually believed all of the damn talk about Makybe Diva which was that they weren't going to even attempt the Cup with her this year. Instead I only put a piddly little $5 bet on Vinnie Roe.

Being the pessimist that I am, I just know that she's an absolute certainty to win the race now that I've missed out on those juicy odds. And she'll only be about $3 on the day. As for Vinnie Roe, he probably won't even come out here for the cup now. :rolleyes:

Money Talks.....
 

The money they have put on in the past two days say's she will win going backward........ (maybe Vinnie is scared... ??).........but I'm still on Vouvray

According to newspaper reports $150,000 was bet on her alone yesterday, she is now into $4 in the pre-post markets.

might as well maintain my obvious unpopularity on this forum bydisagreeing with you to Sportz!!Lee Freedman has stated all along that he was training her specifically for the Cox and that it would be to big an ask to back up in the Cup,and that he was waiting on the owner to advise him if he wanted to run in both.I remember laughing to myself when they had that promo you mentioned.At that stage I was convinced that neither would even run,from memory the minimum bet on her or Vinnie was $5 and maximum $50.The Diva quota was apparently sold out in 3 hours.Even if Vinnie does come,and I doubt it will,I think he had his chance to beat her last year and couldnt,and Dermot Weld is too smart to spend megabucks to come back with him when he knows he cant win,or at least cant beat her on her own turf.

Looking at cold hard stats,the imports record is pretty poor,regardless of all the hype that surrounds them,yet people get sucked in by it every year!!Having said that,and not wanting to contradict myself,I have some good doubles going in the CC with Distinction,which is already booked to come,and ran a big race last year for 6th from memory.I just hope they wise up and put a local jockey on it.

Another cold stat to consider,how many 7yo mares have won the Cup and how many mares have won it with the steadier of 58kgs??

And another stat,the record of favs in the Cup is abyssmal.Imo anyone who takes even money in the Cox,which I believe she will be,she's in to $2.30 already,or $3 in the MC,has obviously got more money than sense.

Imo the CC and the MC are fairly open this year,there is no standout at this stage.And remember the words of a bloke called Bart whose won the odd one or two,they have to have a lot of miles in their legs leading up to the Cup And run the wekend before to top them off.Dont forget the horse that bolted in with the Adelaide Cup Demerger.I took 25s its now in to 10s,so must be a bit of money for it,and it will run 2 miles right out.

Think the Cox is a 2 horse race,with Xcellent beating the Diva with Lad in 3rd spot.He has an incredible turn of foot(like her)it may come down to luck in running or the best ride on the day.He has only had 7 starts for 6 wins,for at G1,my only concern is the strathayr surface and the tight turns ay the Valley.

I will go on record by declaring him NEARLY a good thing at e/w odds.Have had a good hit at $6.50 and intend to unload more.

I am not canning the Diva,she is one of my favourite horses,but really think he is the heir apparent to her throne.

Apologies for digressing from your original topic.

cheers and good luck whatever you back.

So, are you saying that if you HAD backed Makybe Diva at $21 back then, you WOULDN'T be feeling very happy with yourself now???

Put it this way? If someone offered you $21 now, would you jump on???

That's what I mean. I'm not saying that she's any certainty to win the Cup, but surely $21 is looking pretty damn good right now.

Maybe I am not as loopy as a lot of you seem to think,but I am entitled to my opinion,whether you agree or not!Yes,I would have a NIBBLE only if offered that price now,but I still dont believe she will run.Maybe you guys know something I dont,BUT I have not yet read anywhere that she is a certain starter yet.IMO they are waiting to see what the Cox takes out of her,and if Xcellent does beat her and he goes on to the Cup with a huge weight advantage,she will not run,so you could have got $51 and it would mean ************ all!!And I believe you are crying over spilt milk!!If you had $5 on Vinnie when there certainty he was even coming,why didnt you risk another $5 on the Diva??Cant work out your logic there mate,sorry.

Ahhh yeah, neither can I right now. It was only a $5 bet, so I don't know why I didn't do the same with her. :( But I have to say that at that stage I was pretty confident that he WOULD be in the cup and almost certain that she WOULDN'T be. Shows how futile it is to try to work out what they're going to do months out from the race.

mate please dont think that I was having a go at you or your punting integrity,I just truly belieieve thwt SPORTSBET THOUGHT WHERE TRYING TO SUCK IN A LOT OF MONEY OFF MUG PUNTERS WHO COULD NOT RESIST THE $21 ON OFFER ON TWO HORSES THAT THEY REALLY THOUGHT WOULD NOT EVEN BE GOING AROUND.tHAT IS FRAUD,AND i REALLY HOPE THEY COP IT UP THE YOU KNOW WHERE.

and grey's inn will win the yalumba and the cox, because i left it out of my stable, when i wanted it, but chose vouvray instead :(

The only early bets I have had have been involved in doubles nothing massive bet wise but the odds were not to bad at the time I think one I had was Vouvray to win the Caulfield Cup and Railings to win the Melbourne Cup at $465-1 for $10 obviously if that by some miracle gets up then I will be ecstatic. The same bet right now sits at $170-1 so I guess if nothing else I also got some great value compared to now but only if both horses end up starting in the cups that is the chance you take. I also had $5 e/w on Railings for the MC at $61-1 he is now $17-1 that looks alright to the ting that worries me about Railings is the fact that I don't think Hawkes has ever trained a cup winner might be wrong there I also doubt he has really had a horse that could win certainly recently anyway.

Chuck, for exactly the same reason, God's Own will win the Guineas and Super Kid will win the Toorak. :o

mate i had the same bet but @ $451..... i had big bets on railings in both cups before the carnival started so plusses there as well. I notice you and me were the only two people in the Fantasy racing comp that had railings in their 1st stable lol

Don't forget Dizelle, me thinks she deserves as much of a mention as anything else.

hey chuck,


what u mean left it out of ur stable?

does ne1 have ne solid tips on the thousand guinneas. i dont know much about this rewaaya but i know mnemosyne is a big chance. has anyone got sectionals and recent class ones etc. on the two??

cheers

matt..

Rewaaya is good Bordi, real good. I took her on recently at Moonee Valley and she absolutely blew them away. My suggestion is that she'll be too good for mnemosyne.

Rewaaya is still improving possibly headed for the Oaks has one of the best turn of foot I have seen being out of an At Talaq mare it would suggest she should get over a bit of ground atleast. Mnemosyne on the other hand looks asthough it might be on the way out this prep I would think that her Thousand Guineas run will be her last regardless of whether she wins or not I would back Rewaaya out of either of those and that is saying something I usually will not touch favs.

Raw,

I'm normally dead against betting early on the cups as so much can go wrong. That's why I decided to only bet a grand total of just $20 for a bit of fun on four horses I thought were value at that early stage.

I actually liked the chances of Accumulate, so I had him and Vinnie Roe for the Melbourne Cup. And I picked out Matras and Tick By for the Caulfield Cup. I can sure pick 'em, cant I? :rolleyes:

He's talking about the Fantasy Racing game that I'm running on this forum.

At the last minute, I left God's Own and Super Kid out of my stable as well. That's why I reckon they'll probably win this week too. :o

I usually have a bit of a go at the doubles early on but rarely anything else unless it is above 50-1. I got the Cox plate Melbourne Cup double there a couple of years back with Fields of Omagh and Makybe Diva. Got the Double with St.Basil and Portland Singa in the Straddie and Brisbane Cup this year other than that though nothing mind you for $20 worth of bets there I was lucky enough to get just under $2000 worth in return.

For some reason, I don't usually go for the double. I really don't know why because I usually take out a couple of single bets on both cups in the week leading up to Caulfield and I have a pretty good record with them. A few times recently, I could have actually got the double if I had taken one. For example, Ethereal's year and also with Mummify/Makybe Diva and Elvstroem/Makybe Diva. Never mind, the single wins have been okay.

sportz you are purely and simply an after the ball ********er.you never stop crying about how I was gonna back this or gonna back that.Are you a woman?You sure act like one.Since you came on here you have taken over,and I have no doubt most of the regular posters left because it became the"sportznut"forum with you and your myriad of systems,most of which were useless,if not why dont you post them anymore??You even stole my topweight system and reinvented it as your own,until it started losing that is.You even crowed about how "famous" you were when you got a mention in a newslewtter.Where all of your "faboulous" systems now??How you dont put your selections/systems/tips/on any more??I think you are BB from PPM in disguise.I would issue you this this personal challenge.........

1 race per state syd/mel/bris/
sat only
5 week duration
$100 per race
win only
1 selection only per race

so that is $300 per weekx5=$1500
let everyone see if you are the guru you make youself out to be,or the ********er you all seem to think I am.

No doubt all your brainwashed followers will howl me down and give you ample reason to evade the challenge,and you will ride the wave and make any excuse to avoid same.

look forward to your excuses for exempting.

u need to be careful angel! sportz and co are privileged "shareholders" of this forum, if u get my drift ;)

I agree Mad. Don't toss Dizelle off a couple of mediocre showings. Might be great value.

Angel, you definitely are entitled to your opinion, but you can't get on ANY horse racing fan who bitches after missing a winner that they were seriously considering. It happens so frequently that it can't be considered whining, but an inherent part of gambling. Now, harping over and over about the same near miss is obviously different than the frustration and mention of the bad end of a 50% selection between two horses. I do wish I could take all my f***-ups in stride and not even mention them. but I have too much bad luck to keep quiet.

Angel that is a bit harsh not sure what your going on about with the systems or anything Sportz has always run comps which takes a ****load of time to do and I am sure pretty much everyone here is greatful he does it they are a bit of fun. I don't recall your name being around in the past but I could be wrong I do have a pretty bad memory just not sure why the hatred for Sportz if you don't like what you are reading noone has a gun to your head you don't have to read it, By that I amnot saying **** off anything I am simply saying everyone is allowed to have there opinion but personal attacks are a different story.

I ask if you have ever had a couple of horses you have liked for different races and tossed up between them and gone the wrong way I have done it plenty of times and I just get annoyed with myself this has been a great place for myself and I imagine quite a few others to vent there frustrations.

As I said if you don't like what your reading then you don't have to read it, it also bewildered me with the attack on Sportz maybe you have your reasons I just don't recall any of the stuff your talking about.

I do not make myself out to be any sort of guru. I'm not. As for what you are, well any sort of negative opinion that people may have of you will probably only be reinforced by your last post.

Agree: Makybe Diva WILL win the Melbourne Cup

Raw, I used to post systems on the betting systems forum. They started off well and were quite popular, but after a while I must admit that most of them started going backwards (as most systems do). At least I was honest about it, and I was genuinely worried that people might be losing money on them, so I stopped posting systems altogether. (I now don't use systems very much anyway) That's also the reason why I don't post tips regularly. I can't stand the thought of anyone else losing money off my tips. You can see I'd be no good at PPM. ;)


Yes, as you said, I think absolutely everyone that bets has at some stage had the feeling of "if only I had done this" or "if only I had chosen that" or "why didn't I include that". I'm afraid that being the pessimist that I am, I might do it a bit more than others, and I tend to say it on here instead of keeping it to myself. Sorry about that. :o

Angel,
Why not just post your thoughts as well?
Wouldn't take long to wash my brain.
Cheers

i wouldve loved to have seen Westerner come out and take her on. i had 100 on him at $31 and took the double makybe for the cox and westerner for the cup at $91. i was ****ed off when they decided to go to hong kong instead of here.

Well, it was always a longshot that Westerner would come out here. I remember hearing a discussion a couple of months ago on radio (sport927 I think) and a couple of the experts were saying that it would be great to see a horse of his calibre out here, but that he would not be coming, simple as that.

That $31 would have been more like $13 if he had been a genuine chance of running.

Well, half way there.

Pretty close, wasn't it? Geez, I could have been almost on top of the Fantasy comp, but instead I'm going to be WAY behind. Oh well, never mind.

Well, I don't know about you guys, but I'm thinking that it's looking less and less likely that she's going to run in the cup.

The way Lee Freedman is talking just makes me think it's not going to happen. Now he has entered her in the McKinnon, saying that if she wasn't going to run in the cup and if he wanted to run her during the carnival for the public, that would be a much softer option.

C'mon guys, don't be spoil sports. HAVE A GO! It's a once in a lifetime thing to have a chance at winning 3 Melbourne Cups. You're never going to have another chance at it!!!

Problem is she's had a light preparation & the Cup is only 7 days away. I can't see her running either.

Mackinnon & Sandown Cup?

who knows what lee has got planned. he has stated its a 50- 50 chance and that its up to tony santic (who wants her to run). experts have said the weight wont bother her, its only her fitness, which lee seems to think is fine. maybe lee wants the odds or sumthing? a hard track wont see her running and monday is forecast to be 26 degrees. not many horses at her age have the ability to run 3200m then go back to 2000m and be a mighty success. therefore i feel she should be able to run the 3200. she has put on over 20 kilos since last year, this may be beneficial over this distance.

the mares well being is there main concern, and good on em for thinking this way. they have nothing to prove, shes the best ever. but personally i feel if the track is going to be soft and easy on her she will run, if its hard they wont risk an injury on her (they got dubaii to think about)...

cheers

matt....

now G.Boss reckons she's almost certain to run with a decision by friday

where did u read that rabbitz???

Im happy to back the diva in the cup at early odds. Currently the highest quoted price is from sportsbet at $4.00/$1.75

report on the news reckons she will have a workout tomorrow am, with a decision on the cup to be then made.

personally i reckon they will set her for dubai, but like most i hope they do run her on tue.