Derby
 

Good afternoon people


I thought I would start a thread discussing the Derby. I believe the Derby is far from a foregone conclusion. I feel that there are some doubts over both of the leading contenders and therefore their current prices do not provide an accurate reflection of their prospects.

There may be some doubts over Gallant Guru's ability to handle a "bog" track. Being out of a Don’t Say Halo mare suggests that a rain affected track would present an significant obstacle. However there appear to be some redeeming factors given that his sire is Montjeu. While it is not possible to say that Gallant Guru will be able to run well on a soft track some of the performances by other Montjeu 3 year olds indicate this is possible. Hurricane Run's recent Arc win was on a soft track. It also appears that Montjeu is producing 3 year old stayers which are in the upper echelons. Of all English Derby winners of the last 30 years only 3 have had their effort replicated by their offspring. Motivators win in the Derby this year ensured Montjeu was one of these sires. His progeny appear to be very talented 3 year olds with Motivator also winning the Coral Eclipse and the Irish Champion. When you add the efforts of Scorpion it appears Montjeu is a boom sire of 3 year old stayers. While the Adelaide form was questionable Gallant Guru then went on to comfortably win the Geelong Classic. The jump to 2500 will only help his chances and raises some doubts over the prospects of Headturner and Pengragon.


Headturner's breeding does not suggest that any soft ground would be a problem. His Anabaa genes suggest he would be an average performer and being out of a Zabeel mare suggests there is even potential for him to excel on a rain effected track.
However the Anabaa breeding raises some doubts over his ability to run out a strong 2500. There do not appear to be many sons or daughters of Anabaa that have had any notable success in races with a distance of more than 1400. Horses like Donna Natalia (AJC Gimcrack Stks.1000m (L) 3rd STC Silver Slipper 1200m (G3) AJC Kindergarten Stks 1200m (G3)),Miss Anabaa(1st Ballyogan Stakes (Ire-G3). Naas Sprint S. LR. (Ire). 3rd Prix Servanne LR. (FR****) and Taikun (STC Star Kingdom Stks 1200m (G3), Tsigane(Daytona H.(SA,6.5FT), 2nd Prix Asselco (L-Fr), 3rd Prix de Bremond (L-Fr), 3rd Godolphin Mile(G2), 2005 Wickerr H.(Del Mar)and Anabaa's greatest son Yell have not run and won races middle to classic distances.

His notable success was Precsion who has able to win the Hong Kong Cup over 2400 and to a lesser Rouvres who won some French and American G2 and G3 races between 8 and 8 furlongs. extent 2002: 1st Prix Jean Prat(Fr,G1)


Now casting our attention to Pendragon. His wet track prospects do not appear to be very shaky. They somewhat resemble those of Headturner as he is by Elnadim, whose progeny are neither brilliant nor poor on a wet track and out of a Grosvenor mare suggesting he may excel. The distance of the derby may also be questionable given his sires breeding. The fact that Headturner was making ground up very rapidly in their last encounter adds some support to this view.

One may counter by saying that both are out of mares with good stay pedigrees. However I would always rather the staying genes to come from the sire as is the case with Gallant Guru. Therefore given the current prices and the all conquering performances of Monjeu 3 year olds throughout the world I feel that the more appealing investment is Gallant Guru. However I am open to persuasion that I may have erred in my preliminary analysis. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

I couldn't persuade anyone on this race I might be the only who thinks this but to me it looks pretty poor almost to a point where I would consider having a small e/w bet on Destiny's Day if it comes over most likely I won't even bet.

Hotel Grand @ $10.

Forgive yesterdays run, as far as i am concerned was never a realistic chance. Easy to say after the fact.

a good read Zambidis ..well done
I havent even started on this race yet..but i did like the look of Headturner..moves well and is a striking type,,hit the line well last start ..

Thanks for the positive feedback and encouragement guys. I am a new member here but have been following the horses for a while. I look forward to this being the beginning of a long and mutually beneficial relationship between us all.

Regards

Mav I liked Headturner aswell but Pendragon gave him weight last time and still beat him plus the Anabaa thing turns me off him a bit to be honest aswell. I don't think we will see Hotel Grand again this spring that run yesterday was woeful and I would say rather than take a chance of really destroying the horse so quickly they will put him away now for the Autumn.


zambidis the Montjeu breeding has had me intrigued with a few horses this spring and for the most part they have let me down one in particular that I expected to see some good things out of was Montoux and it is still yet to win a race I believe not sure as I have stopped wasting my money on it. That was also a reaon why I didn't mind Destiny's Day although it is hard to tell how good he really is right now but I don't think this crop is all that good either which I have previously stated.

All in all I think that it could be a close race between a few horses but I wouldn't be proclaiming any of them the next superstar unless something changes dramatically.

Hotel Grand is awesome. Name another horse to beat Pendragon at the 2000m?

Just because one horse cannot beat Group1 class on a rain affected Valley.
Gods Own won the guineas being the only horse to beat Paratroopers this spring and he couldn't keep up either.

Pendragon is a deadset fighter and will not give in Hotel Grand is a serious staying type who likes to be at the front and does not fade.

Rain or not Hotel Grand for me :)

Wortel.


Im not sure how you can conclude hotel grand is a good stayer. He went out yesterday and set the pace and was unable to keep it up. By no means did he need to win to satisfy me of his staying credentials but he needed to something better than finishing at the tail of the field. A horse which is going to be a Deby candidate would have had some endurance capacity to enable it to have secured a better placing. Even though he led the pace was not all that quick and he flopped dramatically. This is just my observation and I am open hearing what you have to say.

Regards

I would lean towards the track and the conditions would have contributed towards to Hotel Grands performance yesterday and maybe they will press forward to the Derby I would be leaning towards it not running next week though just my opinion I feel they would be better served spelling him now for Sydney in the Autumn.

he did alright againt a class field
im putting money him for derby

i feel headturner is the horse to beat. just getting the experience required. only had a few starts and has been impressive, should have had pendragon last start, but i feel it was a good experience building run and should get the better of him this time. dunno bout him at those odds, maybe duelled is one to look for?

Well it appears I was wrong Hotel Grand isn't going for a spell but it isn't going to the Derby either

Sunday, 23 October 2005:

Hotel Grand has been ruled out of Saturday's Victoria Derby but could be a surprise starter in the weight-for-age Mackinnon Stakes.

The three-year-old led the field for much of Saturday's Cox Plate won by Makybe Diva but compounded to finish 15 lengths last.

However his trainer Anthony Cummings said he had pulled up well and if he continued to thrive, he would run in the Group One Mackinnon (2000m) on Saturday.

"Jay (Ford) said he didn't feel right but there was nothing obvious this morning," Cummings said.

"Whether it was the track, we don't know.

"I've talked it over with the owners and we've decided not to run in the Derby but he'll be entered for the Mackinnon.

"He'll gallop on Tuesday morning and we'll see where we are then."

Hotel Grand has had just six starts and the Cox Plate was his first outing on a rain-affected surface.

Cummings will still have a Derby runner with Replicator to line up as somewhat of a forgotten horse at $15 in most markets with Pendragon and Headturner heading betting.

Replicator ran third to that pair in the Norman Robinson Stakes last Saturday and fourth to Hotel Grand in the Spring Champion.

"The markets don't seem to think he has a chance but he keeps picking up cheques every time he runs and I think the 2500 metres will suit," Cummings said.

Hotel Grand's half brother Outback Prince, who finished second last in the Cox Plate, sustained an injury to his near front fetlock but Cummings said it was not too serious and he hoped to have him back for the Group One Emirates (1600m) on Saturday week.

Although dissapointed in Hotel's Grand's flop,

Have seen too many horses flop on their 1st wet Experience,

Then come out and improve immensely on the same surface.

For this case should Hotel Grand run I will have something on it.

i really like headturner except for the fact that both times ive backed it (500 hunj each time lol?) hes been beaten a short half head but i do like its prospects in the derby. with a little bit more speed up front than last start i think ull find it too good although i have to agree with raw its a pretty poor field. definitely one of the worst ive seen in recent years

i like Benicio

What did people think of Duelleds run on the weekend?

watching replay now

The best run out of the Vase was Benicio by far. Forget Duelled, Pendragon has accounted for it with ease in 2 runs this campaign and there's been nothing to suggest it can turn the tables on that.

I can't split Headturner and Pendragon. I think its a fairly safe quinella.

Was just looking at the weights for the card, and Headturner isn't listed in the derby field. Have i missed something?

I see what you mean. Don't worry though. It's obviously a mistake. They only have 8 horses listed and there'll be more than that in the Derby.

should of stick with it