Melbourne Cup Barrier Draw
 

None of the favourites drew well except Railings. Here it is:

makybe diva 14
vinnie roe 24
greys inn 13
distinction 21
railings 5
xcellent 17
dizelle 18
franklins gardens10
eye popper 9
portland singa 1
vouvray 15
demerger 4
lachlan river 3
bazelle 22
kindjahl 12
hugs dancer 7
leica falcon 20
umbula 8
on a jeune 11
rizon 16
strasbourg 6
envoy 2
kamsky 23
mr celebrity 19

Here's the field:

7-3.00 EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP 3200 M
1st $3000000, 2nd $750000, 3rd $375000, 4th $200000, 5th $125000, 6th $110000, 7th $110000, 8th $110000, 9th $110000, 10th $110000.

1 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman G Boss 14 58
2 VINNIE ROE (IRE) Dermot K Weld P Smullen 24 58
3 DISTINCTION (IRE) Michael Stoute M Kinane 21 56.5
4 GREYS INN (USA) Mike De Kock W Marwing 13 56.5
5 FRANKLINS GARDENS (GB) Mark Tompkins Darryll Holland 10 54.5
6 EYE POPPER (JPN) Izumi Shimizu S Fujita 9 54
7 RAILINGS John Hawkes G Childs 5 54
8 XCELLENT (NZ) Michael Moroney M T Coleman 17 54
9 KINDJHAL (FR) David Hayes D Dunn 12 52.5
10 HUGS DANCER (FR) David Hayes N Ryan 7 52
11 DEMERGER Danny O'Brien B Shinn (a) 4 51.5
12 DIZELLE John Hawkes D Beadman 18 51.5
13 LACHLAN RIVER (NZ) John Morrisey G Colless 3 51.5
14 PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) Neville McBurney L Cassidy 1 51.5
15 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody S Seamer 15 51.5
16 ON A JEUNE Peter Montgomerie D Gauci 11 51
17 UMBULA Mick Price S Baster 8 51 1.5
18 BAZELLE (NZ) Paul Jenkins R McLeod 22 50.5
19 ENVOY (NZ) Ken Kelso P Mertens 2 50.5
20 RIZON Cliff Brown J Ford 16 50.5
21 STRASBOURG Bart Cummings L Nolen 6 50.5
22 LEICA FALCON Richard Freyer K McEvoy 20 50
23 MR CELEBRITY (NZ) Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 19 49.5
24 KAMSKY Bart Cummings C Williams 23 48.5

What is Franklins Gardens doing in there???

Thats fine for Makybe.....Leica Falcon, Dizelle and railings will all get back so no real damage done there. Eye Popper has a nice draw and should go close.
There are only 8 horses that can win in my opinion:
Makybe Diva
Leica Falcon
Railings
Dizelle
Eye Popper
Mr Celebrity
Vinnie Roe
Demerger
Portland Singa
Grey's Inn

Basically rule out the rest

That's 10, not 8. :D

i don't know how i came up with that :D

David Hayes would be pretty angry if Franklins Gardens pulls out and Confectioner misses out on a place. I don't think Confectioner deserves to be there though. I though Bazelle might have been a good light weight chance although barrier 22 wil be tough.

I think you have to include Hugs Dancer in your calculations if the track is wet. Ran fifith last year after being 17th at the 400m mark and drops 0.5kg. David Hayes has kept a quiet preparation for him and he has barrier seven with Nick Ryan on board, who placed third on Zazzman last year.

flashed home for 5th over two miles, but it also flashed home in the C Cup, Underwood & Turnbull. Its only win was first up in the craiglee. I think you'll find it flashed home and looks quite good without winning an awful lot.

You beat me to it Makybe Hugs Dancer has some definite claims but I don't think they are hoping for any rain to help it's chances in fact I would have thought the opposite. looking at the barrier draw Railings & Eye Popper have helped there chances you never know Eye Popper may even get a bit closer to the fence this time around either way it is going to be damn hard to beat.

Of the roughies you have to like where Lachlan River, Portland Singa & even maybe a horse like Envoy have drawn not sure if any of them can win the race but it certainly won't hurt them being drawn where they are anyway.

Symmetry
 

Last May, on a Saturday in Adelaide, a horse called Glamour Puss won the Goodwood HCP, trained by Danny O'Brien. On the Monday, a horse called Demerger won the Adelaide Cup, trained by Danny O'Brien. First trainer to complete the double in something like 110 years.

Today, on a Saturday in Melbourne, a horse called Glamour Puss won the Salanger, trained by Danny O'Brien. On Tuesday, from barrier 4, Demerger lines up in the Melbourne Cup.

And remember, Flemington is their home track.

Well, I'm sure Danny O'Brein would be happy if that happened. Hugs Dancer annoyed me last year because Ihad the first three and it in a first four. Would have won me a **** load yet instead cost me ****load!

You had the Diva, Vinnie and Zaz in a four along with Hugs? Mate thats a pretty speculative bet and I do not think you can blame the horse. You left out Elvis and included Hugs. Not to difficult to have put the Caulfield Cup winner in. That is the way it goes with such exotics. The trifecta is difficult enough to get( I snared it in 2003 but spent a bit on the exercise) let alone selecting four horses and expecting them to fill the first four placings. I am not being smart just giving you another opinion which I hope may be of value as you consider your wagers for Tuesday.


Regards

Yeh I had the Diva, Vinnie and Hugs Dancer first of all. And then I looked at the horse records and I knew Zazzman had won over 2400m and it was a rough hope so I threw it in.

Hmmm, I needed you to help me out. I had the first 5 horses across the line EXCEPT for Zazzman.

I have been looking at the field for most of the morning had a look at a few replays to while I was at it. I have Railings rated on top for a couple of reasons and none more significant than Greg Childs riding him he will give this horse every concievable chance to win this race not to mention he is in oustanding form if it was any other year he would be a red hot favourite right now. His biggest danger is Eye Popper he is tough as nails this bloke has beaten the Diva carrying more weight than her already I struggle to see how she could turn the tables here he is probably the best weighted horse in the cup. Now the next line would go to Leica Falcon but I have for some reason cooled off of him a bit and to be honest I have no idea why I just feel he may need a little more seasoning and next year might be his best go not writing him off here just more keen on the others.

This is where it gets real hard you get horses like Vinnie Roe and Makybe Diva they are carrying alot of weight and only 2 horses have even placed in the last 20 odd years with this sort of weight on there backs they were Vinnie Roe last year and Vintage Crop in his last Cup (I think it was his last anyway). So to a degree history says they have an awful lot going against them they are both however exceptional stayers. Lachlan River was a terrific run yesterday but it is to be noted that he had cover and was coming off the rails at around the 350-400 nothing came down the outside much all day long so maybe the run flattered him a little he is still a place hope though for sure. Portland Singa and Demerger I have more and more doubts about everytime I look at them just not sure either of them has the class to be able to finish this reason right off at the business end.

There are 2 horses in Distinction and Hugs Dancer who I feel this race might suit and are definite place chances (I actually think Distinction has a winning chance if they go hard in this it will suit him to a tee) really liked what I saw out of Hugs Dancer last start hit the line nicely behind Leica Falcon when only 2nd up he has been trained like a european horse this year which is what he is don't be surprised if he runs a bold race aswell. I don't like either Mr.Celebrity or Dizelle I feel if either of them were going well enough they would have won yesterday lets face it Strasbourg is no champion heck it hadn't won a race in 3 years.

So in saying all of this I will most likely have a trifecta something along the lines of this

1st: Railings, Eye Popper, Distinction (Value Pick)
2nd: Hugs Dancer, Leica Falcon, Makybe Diva or Lachaln River (I will take a chance on Vinnie I think)

I rewatched the SAAB and last years Melbourne Cup, and in very different conditions, the on pace runners went very well. Strasbourg yesterday wn after being second most of the way Zacielo managed to hold onto fith and sixth. Last year, Zazzman went from second to fortuh for most of the race and kicked along in the straight. Apparently, Vinnie Roe is going to go forward which I think he will find very hard to get a position from barrier twenty four. Strasbourg (although I don't rate it a chnace) will also go forward as well as Disticntion. I haven't had a huge look at the field but I just have a bad feeling that a horse like Railings will get stuck in the traffic jam and that Greg Childs will have to take further forward than usual. Good luck with everybody's bets!

I think the Diva will be trying to create history in the Cup more than anything else. She will have to prove herself a freak to win. The horse was not prepped for the Melbourne Cup and will be running against a lot of talent that is. She peaked for the races she was meant to peak for and won both of them. She needs a good rest, not a 2 mile race carrying 58kg.

Eye popper was a good thing beat [slaughtered by the jockey] last start and should have won against the Diva running away. Why the hell these big overseas trainers continue to ignore the local specialist riders astounds me. They don't give their horses the chance they deserve.

Crash I would agree to an extent but I have heard that Eye Popper actually had a career high rating in the Caulfield Cup and I know for a fact the horse races like this in Japan he aparently cannot race with horses around him needs open space much like Vinnie Roe.

Before anyone pulls me up on my glaring mistake, I should say I meant Eye Popper should have won running away from 'Raillings' in C/C [had the Diva on my mind so typo followed].

So that's my Cup pick, Eye Popper if the jockey doesn't decided to spend the whole race on the outside of the field, although Raw Instinct might have a valid point in his comments.
Interestingly, over 3200m in Japan, Eye Popper beat the Diva by 3 lengths while carrying 4kg. more than her. The weight tables have now turned from a 4kg. disadvantage in Japan against the Diva, to a 4kg. advantage here [Eye Popper 54kg. for the cup] and in a favorite distance range.

Before anyone pulls me up on my glaring mistake, I should say I meant Eye Popper should have won running away from 'Raillings' in C/C [had the Diva on my mind so typo followed].

So that's my Cup pick, Eye Popper if the jockey doesn't decided to spend the whole race on the outside of the field, although Raw Instinct might have a valid point in his comments.
Interestingly, over 3200m in Japan, Eye Popper beat the Diva by 3 lengths while carrying 4kg. more than her. The weight tables have now turned from a 4kg. disadvantage in Japan against the Diva, to a 4kg. advantage [Eye Popper 54kg. for the cup] here and in a favorite distance range.