Do you agree Group 1 Assessment?
 

Hi all,

Just trialling a little research.

Excluding today's races, do you think my class ranking of Group 1 races this year is correct?

I'd be interested in what you disagree on but in particular why?

Thanks.

Top to bottom - highest class to lowest.

12/03/2005	Flemington	Australian Cup

22/10/2005	Moonee Valley	Carlton Draught Cox Plate

12/02/2005	Caulfield	C.F. Orr Stakes

5/03/2005	Rosehill	Ranvet Stakes

19/03/2005	Rosehill	The Bmw

2/04/2005	Randwick	Bigpond Queen Elizabeth Stakes

19/02/2005	Warwick Farm	Chipping Norton Stakes

26/03/2005	Randwick	Blackmores Tj Smith Stakes

29/10/2005	Flemington	Motorola Mackinnon Stakes

19/02/2005	Moonee Valley	Timbercorp Australia Stakes

15/10/2005	Caulfield	Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup

8/10/2005	Caulfield	Yalumba Stakes

2/04/2005	Randwick	Daily Telegraph All Aged Stakes

5/03/2005	Caulfield	Futurity Stakes

11/06/2005	Eagle Farm	Aami Stradbroke

24/09/2005	Randwick	George Main Stakes

21/05/2005	Doomben	Carlton Draught Doomben 10,000

17/09/2005	Caulfield	Dubai Duty Free Underwood Stakes

29/10/2005	Flemington	Seppelt Salinger Stakes

5/02/2005	Flemington	Teac Lightning Stakes

12/03/2005	Flemington	Seppelt Wines Newmarket Handicap

8/10/2005	Caulfield	Toorak Handicap

17/09/2005	Caulfield	Dubai Racing Club Cup

30/03/2005	Randwick	David Jones Galaxy

10/09/2005	Moonee Valley	Cleanevent Manikato Stakes

28/03/2005	Randwick	Doncaster Handicap

12/03/2005	Flemington	Cadbury Guineas

29/10/2005	Flemington	Myer Classic

19/03/2005	Rosehill	Cathay Pacific George Ryder Stakes

2/04/2005	Randwick	Schweppes Sydney Cup

14/05/2005	Morphettville	Urban Pacific Goodwood Handicap

1/10/2005	Randwick	Bigpond Racing Epsom Handicap

5/03/2005	Rosehill	Coolmore Classic

8/10/2005	Caulfield	Carlton Draught Caulfield Guineas

28/05/2005	Doomben	Xxxx Gold Doomben Cup Weight For Ag

23/02/2005	Morphettville	Robert Sangster Stakes

26/02/2005	Caulfield	Oakleigh Plate

26/03/2005	Randwick	Inglis Sires Produce

1/10/2005	Randwick	Sydney City Lexus Flight Stakes

16/05/2005	Morphettville	Skycity Adelaide Cup

13/06/2005	Eagle Farm	Conrad Treasury Brisbane Cup

19/03/2005	Rosehill	McMillanprint Queen Of The Turf Sta

19/03/2005	Rosehill	Arrowfield Stud Stakes

30/03/2005	Randwick	Emirates Ajc Australian Oaks

1/10/2005	Randwick	The Metropolitan

26/03/2005	Randwick	David Jones Australian Derby

2/04/2005	Randwick	Salinger Champagne Stakes

19/03/2005	Rosehill	Aami Golden Slipper

12/03/2005	Rosehill	Dubai Rosehill Guineas

9/04/2005	Belmont	Mount Franklin Lightly Sparklking-w

12/10/2005	Caulfield	Vinery Stud Thousand Guineas

26/02/2005	Canterbury	Kia Ora Stud Canterbury Guineas

29/10/2005	Flemington	Aami Victoria Derby

4/06/2005	Eagle Farm	Joe Richards Menswear Queensland Oa

26/02/2005	Caulfield	Aami Blue Diamond Stakes

11/06/2005	Eagle Farm	Bmw Queensland Derby

1/10/2005	Randwick	Thrifty Spring Champion Stakes

7/05/2005	Morphettville	Schweppes Oaks

13/06/2005	Eagle Farm	The Racetree T.J. Smith Qtis 2-y-o

4/06/2005	Eagle Farm	Borrelli Hand Made Clothing Sires'

14/05/2005	Morphettville	Malaysia Airlines Sa Derby

No takers? Wow.

Thought there would be quite a few ready to rip it apart.

The class rating is based on field strength.

The Cox Plate rating well below the Australian Cup.

The Caulfield Cup rating well below some other less regarded races

Hard for me to say really have no idea here but I think that the QLD Derby could have been ranked a little higher even more so with Lachlan River running the race he did in the cup, The other I think will be a better race in a bit of time is the TJ Smith in Brisbane Darci Brahma is all quality and I have alot of time for the placegetters there in Ready As and Daemons maybe I am wrong.

I would exclude the one and only WA listing CP. We don't want to get a big head over here you know! ;)

And as a matter of interest how did we get that one on your list :)

I see Desi has just clocked in :) Perhaps Desi could shed some light ;)

Well Desi's been and gone, as well as CP. Must have b.o. Ah well there’s always tomorrow :)

That W.A. race rated well more because Plastered was running in it which really boosted the class of the field.

Who was in the CFORR? surely that can't be rated that high.

BTW Do you think it would be possible to post the fields of the top5 or so? thanks

Hi Chuck,

The CF ORR

Elvstroem
Mummify
Pentastic
Mr. Murphy
Regal Roller
Natural Blitz
Casual Pass
Lad Of The Manor
Rizon
Pretorius
Makybe Diva
Vouvray
Savabeel
Not A Single Doubt
Danehill Express

A cracking field - won by Elvstroem, hence the high ranking.

Mate the reason there was no takers was because you asked the question wrong. The way you asked it a person would have no idea if a race at the bottom was much, little or lots above one below. Instead of ranking them (which means nothing) give them a figure representing their strength. You can express this figure in whatever form you like.

How bout this then?

DATE	TRACK	RACE NAME	RATING

12/03/2005	Flemington	Australian Cup	100

22/10/2005	Moonee Valley	Carlton Draught Cox Plate	82

12/02/2005	Caulfield	C.F. Orr Stakes	70

5/03/2005	Rosehill	Ranvet Stakes	69

19/03/2005	Rosehill	The Bmw	69

2/04/2005	Randwick	Bigpond Queen Elizabeth Stakes	60

19/02/2005	Warwick Farm	Chipping Norton Stakes	54

26/03/2005	Randwick	Blackmores Tj Smith Stakes	54

29/10/2005	Flemington	Motorola Mackinnon Stakes	51

19/02/2005	Moonee Valley	Timbercorp Australia Stakes	48

15/10/2005	Caulfield	Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup	46

8/10/2005	Caulfield	Yalumba Stakes	45

2/04/2005	Randwick	Daily Telegraph All Aged Stakes	44

5/03/2005	Caulfield	Futurity Stakes	43

11/06/2005	Eagle Farm	Aami Stradbroke	40

24/09/2005	Randwick	George Main Stakes	35

21/05/2005	Doomben	Carlton Draught Doomben 10,000	35

17/09/2005	Caulfield	Dubai Duty Free Underwood Stakes	34

29/10/2005	Flemington	Seppelt Salinger Stakes	33

5/02/2005	Flemington	Teac Lightning Stakes	33

12/03/2005	Flemington	Seppelt Wines Newmarket Handicap	33

8/10/2005	Caulfield	Toorak Handicap	33

17/09/2005	Caulfield	Dubai Racing Club Cup	31

30/03/2005	Randwick	David Jones Galaxy	29

10/09/2005	Moonee Valley	Cleanevent Manikato Stakes	27

28/03/2005	Randwick	Doncaster Handicap	26

12/03/2005	Flemington	Cadbury Guineas	24

29/10/2005	Flemington	Myer Classic	24

19/03/2005	Rosehill	Cathay Pacific George Ryder Stakes	22

2/04/2005	Randwick	Schweppes Sydney Cup	22

14/05/2005	Morphettville	Urban Pacific Goodwood Handicap	21

1/10/2005	Randwick	Bigpond Racing Epsom Handicap	20

5/03/2005	Rosehill	Coolmore Classic	17

8/10/2005	Caulfield	Carlton Draught Caulfield Guineas	17

28/05/2005	Doomben	Xxxx Gold Doomben Cup Weight For Ag	17

23/02/2005	Morphettville	Robert Sangster Stakes	16

26/02/2005	Caulfield	Oakleigh Plate	16

26/03/2005	Randwick	Inglis Sires Produce	16

1/10/2005	Randwick	Sydney City Lexus Flight Stakes	13

16/05/2005	Morphettville	Skycity Adelaide Cup	12

13/06/2005	Eagle Farm	Conrad Treasury Brisbane Cup	12

19/03/2005	Rosehill	McMillanprint Queen Of The Turf Sta	12

19/03/2005	Rosehill	Arrowfield Stud Stakes	12

30/03/2005	Randwick	Emirates Ajc Australian Oaks	11

1/10/2005	Randwick	The Metropolitan	10

26/03/2005	Randwick	David Jones Australian Derby	10

2/04/2005	Randwick	Salinger Champagne Stakes	9

19/03/2005	Rosehill	Aami Golden Slipper	9

12/03/2005	Rosehill	Dubai Rosehill Guineas	7

9/04/2005	Belmont	Mount Franklin Lightly Sparklking-w	7

12/10/2005	Caulfield	Vinery Stud Thousand Guineas	7

26/02/2005	Canterbury	Kia Ora Stud Canterbury Guineas	7

29/10/2005	Flemington	Aami Victoria Derby	5

4/06/2005	Eagle Farm	Joe Richards Menswear Queensland Oa	5

26/02/2005	Caulfield	Aami Blue Diamond Stakes	4

11/06/2005	Eagle Farm	Bmw Queensland Derby	4

1/10/2005	Randwick	Thrifty Spring Champion Stakes	4

7/05/2005	Morphettville	Schweppes Oaks	4

13/06/2005	Eagle Farm	The Racetree T.J. Smith Qtis 2-y-o	4

4/06/2005	Eagle Farm	Borrelli Hand Made Clothing Sires'	3

14/05/2005	Morphettville	Malaysia Airlines Sa Derby	3

OK first thought - what do the points represent?

Field strength compared to the classiest race.

This rating refers to the class of the field contesting the race.

Yep OK but on what scale? How much is a point worth roughly?

Duritz, it's not a kg scale or anything.

Total points for classiest field is 100.

The points are then scaled down based on relative percentage to the top rated.

The way I constructed it was average career prizemoney for the field.

Not API, but add total career prizemoney of every runner and divide by number of starters giving a $ Class figure.

Doing it by api and then dividing it did not work at all, because of 2yo's etc with limited starts.

It's just an idea I was tossing around and that way one could compare the rating of one Cox Plate one year, to that 20 years ago using the same scale even though prizemoney had changed.

One could see instantly that a 100 Cox Plate this year and a 95 10 years ago, this was a better field etc. Without the increase of prizemoney interfering, as it is scaled to each year.

Yeah see what you mean.

I would think that that method has merit, but more than likely it has merit when used in CONJUNCTION with other factors, most importantly of course some sort of ranking based on the quality of the winner/placegetters etc. Really, the best way is by ranking/classing them based on the INDIVIDUAL strength of each individual race, and the best way to do that is to compare horse against horse in each of them. Then a ranking method like the one you are outline can be used to strenghten/enhance the method itself.

Unfortunately, when it comes to accuracy, there's no easy answer. Full points for thinking outside the square though.

Thanks Duritz,

I might even do a comparison year by year later this weekend, seeing I've got some motivation now!

Where this will lead, I do not know, but I've been looking to find some way of measuring class and thought the best place to start was Group races and Listed races and concentrate on them.

Once you get down into Open, Welter etc. There is too much grey area and of course too many races to evaluate.

C.P
what rating would you have given the Melbourne Cup??

Hi Dr Ron,

I haven't done it as yet, but I think it would have taken over top spot. The Diva being the catalyst with Vinnie Row.