A few from Crash for Handicappers[Sat]
 

I NEVER tip on Saturday [very rarely on any other day either], but I'm a bit bored this week. Hope it's one of my good weeks in case anyone follows this lot. These are my bets tomorrow.

After the hard yards my races for Handicappers tomorrow [forget the rest as far as I'm concerned] are:

M/Valley:
R7
Ruben
Mr Magoo [at top odds].
Both to win and exacta.
R8
Charmed [easily] on top
Brom Fidelity. Both to win and Exacta

Victoria Park:
R5
Rally to win
Open Cut and Rally exacta.
Throw in Chong Tong for a $3 tri.

Eagle farm:
R6
Beau [easily on top I think]
Zacieldo [this one bothers me. Twice the class of anything here. Eratic but his poor runs were on 'dead'. Hopeless on Dead. Capable of hammering this lot if it goes well here. Jockey choice is a worry]
Both to win
Tri: 2/3x1/2/3/4/6/8/9
R7
Sir Breakfast and Imperialism both to win.
Hard one here. Breakfast has a bit too much weight but might win anyway and there are 2 and 3 with great claims. Imperialism I think has them on weight and speed [maybe]. Will have the odds on the others.
Tri: 1/4x1/2/4/3/11x1/2/3/4/5/11
Might snare a very good collect on this one. Dodgy but maybe worth it.

Forget Sydney.

Lets see how we go. good luck [to me]:-)

These tips are for 'good' tracks only.
Hopefully: 'Read em' and weep" [on Sunday].

Might have a slap at BEAU crash as I am off to Eagle Farm tomorrow.
Hope the rain holds off for the day.
Also like SEEK THE TRUTH in R4 Sydney.
Good punting

Stuff Sydney, It's a minefield of crappy odds and 'how's your father' hadicapping [for me anyway].

Have a saver on Zaceildo [NZ] with Beau. It's group margins are top shelf on good tracks [group 1]. Ignore it's Bendigo run on dead [Dead 6/0-0-0]. A phurpy to keep it's weight down for this. Average prize money is $12,128. Next best is Classic Kala at $5223 [got it's win last week but weight will kill it I think this time. The comp. is stiffer and It's done it's dash this prep. unless my eye is completely out].

Jose,

Heavy rain last night has stuffed Brisbane for me I think, so had a look at your Sydney race 4.
Boy-o-boy, I remember the days when a Wed. meeting had better class races than this Sydney meeting today.

I think there are a few in R4 with claims though [1,2,6,7 .... 5/1 the field?]. Your are right about Seek The Truth. A very good chance.
Have a little look though at No.8 Aqua Blessing, PP$26. It was very close [less than a length] in a !00k race earlier this year and 2nd. up this prep is ready to win and might just pop this lot at good odds.
Cassidy on board means it's bid here is serious and Conners is a good trainer. It has also run up to 1400m OK. so we know the 1300m. is fine for this horse at least. Barrier 5 too. I think I'll have an e/w on it anyway with some $ which I won't be betting with in Brisb.

Only 1.9 lengths so it's better than it looks. Has been consistent since and 2nd. up form is 2/1-1-0.

30/03/2005 7/13 1.9 RANDWICK (R5) 1200 LR 2 F 100K L BEASLEY 5 54.5 S 1.12.34 $11 12 ,11 101 0.4 0.6
BLIZZARDLY REGAL CHEER HEART STRINGS drifted back rear 2 wide and well back turn. found line ok out wide late.


Cheers and good luck.

Sydney seems to be heading for SLOW. Above run by [R4/8] Aqua Blessing was on SLOW.
57 day spell before it's last run [below]. The form guides have it wrong. It's 2nd. up, not 4th. up to me.

11/11/2005 4/11 1.3 WARWICK FARM (R5) 1100 C3 3+ FM 22K D GREVILLE 6 53.5 G 1.04.39 $12 10 , 8 102 0 -0.1
LUCKY CUT BRILLANTE FILLETTE MYSTIKOS drifted back off midfield inside and same to turn. finished on well last 200.

Thanks Crash, I shall throw her into my tri.
Have dug out another bet with the track being wet. TESTIFY in Bris R5.
I think the kid got into a bit of trouble on it last time from barrier 10, he got caught deep. From the 1 today if the rail is any good he should just about win.
All the best.

I'll have a look at that one Jose.

Of my original Brisbane selections. If the going is Slow. R7 IMPERIALISM is a very good bet indeed. Forget the rest of my selection there though [they'll probably all win now].

Cheers.

PS. To anyone visiting this thread:
THE WEATHER AT ALL MEETINGS EXCEPT ADELAIDE ARE DEAD SO FAR [8am].

Syd.R4No.8 Aqua Blessing a very close 4th. Needed a 'SLOW' trk. which is now 'dead'. Backed it for the place.

Think I might have a win bet on Silver Birch in Melb. in R5 while waiting for the late races.

Ralley saluted for $8+ for a very nice win bet. Whole in the middle for the exacta [Open cut 3rd.].

Good job on M.V. races 7 and 8. On my TAB I got 8-1 on Reuben and 14-1 on Charmed Lady.

Thanks,

Glenn

goooooooooddd work
 

well done old fella..................gazman...............

Hope everyone took my advice. You would have been left with:


M/Valley:
R7
Ruben
Mr Magoo [at top odds].
Both to win and exacta.
R8
Charmed [easily] on top
Brom Fidelity. Both to win and Exacta

Victoria Park:
R5
Rally to win
Open Cut and Rally exacta.
Throw in Chong Tong for a $3 tri.

IAS odds.
Charmed [win $14.33]
Straight up exacta $96.21 [I had $20 on it-)]

Ralley [win $$8.99] Just missed the Ralley Open cut[3rd] exacta $20 straight up also.,

Ruben a close 2nd. at $3.40p which I took 1x4 e/w as I was surprised at the odds on offer.

Cheers.

After last week with Brindabella and Classic Karla win and tri, I'm looking good for an old stager:-)

Cheers.

See you next week.
I hope some punters had a bit of faith and got on board. Ignore anything I say might win before next Sat. [dart board 5min. handicapping method]. I only get serious on Saturdays in carefully selected races [good only], with about 1 1/2 hrs. form study work per race. So there is never many of them [God, how do people pick whole cards and often for all meetings?]. Mind blowing:-)

Crash,

Is there any chance you could share some of your handicapping wisdom ?

Howdy Brad,
Your basically new here, so deserve more attention than anyone else,

From 35 yrs.[+] of hard work. I can only say pick your races VERY carefully [4yrs,old and up shows heaps of exposed form], The goal is to win money, not to select the winner of every race on the card.
Never bet on anything except 'good" and invest in a great form guide [I use Expert Form] with ratings, but never invest in 'top' ratings alone [useless]. I spend $60 per month for that and it's worth every penny [peanuts] because I have healthy bets. Don't be timid with your bets. Believe in yourself and not the opinion of others [I never listen to the radio about selections or ever take into account tips or discussions in form guides or opinion especially on this forum]. I just 'do the form' and make my selections and decide how I'll bet them. The greater the odds for your selection[s] the greater you bet [I often double my bet when the price drifts out]. Overlays, overlays and overlays is the name of the game.

Many punters here laugh at me when I basically rule out most races as betting propositions, I don't give a fig. I back nothing with more than 14 runners [usually] and am looking for overlays and Horses the 'public' have missed [misplaced].

I do a complete horse history of all runners [There-in lies the gold] for every chosen race, looking for a swag of pointers. Hell, there is a lot more to this. I'd need a big page to explain it all and I certainly cant here. I just do my thing and it has been paying handsomely for many years. I have nothing to prove to anybody. We live in the best street in Paynesville with possibly the best view of the lake at our doorstep and through our lounge room window. We have a 4b a 2 motorbikes and no mortgage. My wife has her own business as a gardener [mows laws and gardens]and I do stuff all except punt [go figure]. That is the first time I have ever admitted that I do very well at this game. Handicapping is the only way to do it for this boy anyway [I do like playing with systems for fun though]. Stick everything else up .,....

Keep your bet selection total down [few races and bets up], choose the best races to bet on and forget the rest. No more than my post race selection today was worthwhile, Ignore the 'bottom feeder' 5/1 the field races. Except for fun [which I indulge in too for very small bets during the week]. Saturdays I'm a very serious punter and so are my dollars. I no longer work for a living [I'm not a 'pro' punter, hate the title ....what a ********]. I'm on this forum at all hours of the day because I can afford to be [for the last few years]. I'm just lucky my hard yards yield for now, I'm not a 'professional' just a hard working punter. I make sure most of my opinions are amateur but [hopefully] never condescending.

There is no mystery to winning in this game. Hard work and careful race selection and a top form guide will beat it. Keep your bets [mostly] for the win at flat stakes. Go for the exacta when confident. Tri's very, very rarely and quins. never. It's a lolly if you do it right. Now, about my new boat....

Cheers. If I can help anyone with punting problems or method,,I am available privately. Give me your em and you problem. It's useually technique. I'm not sure if I have done the right thing here with my tips. I may not do so in the future. Next week OK. but possibly my last exposure. I like my space and can't believe I wrote this. I think it's because i see so many punters here with problems so easily avoided. I'm a tough ************ with a soft heart[?]
Ho Ho !!

The morning after.

Oh my god. What ever happened to the old edit system when a guy could scrub a post the next day? Just pretend I never ever wrote that woeful garbage above.

G'day Crash
I'm glad you wrote that rubbish.
Probably the best bit of advice I have seen encapsulated in a small post for many a day anywhere.
I also spend countless hours doing form history 7 days a week and concentrate my efforts in the one area only (Victoria)
After a long time at the form analysis game it's hard to explain how you get to smell a winner.
Having said that, I believe I am a good analyser but a bad punter.
I remember one of the best from times gone by lamenting that despite being a good analyser of form he did not know how to win. (the late Cliff Carey)
Yesterday at Terang I sniffed out Regal Quest. Did not collect a cent because I had a trifecta and missed 2nd placegetter in right order.
Also had the winner of the last at Terang and again missed the trifecta with order of placings.
I had Talons Shown and Charmed lady clearly on top.
When I placed a trifecta I took Talons Shown to win and did not include Charmed Lady for 1st or 2nd. (unconciously influenced by the spruikers on track and the air waves and the tote board.)
In the last at Moonee valley I took Mc Lir and Our Spur to win in a trifecta and missed out again when 2 of the horses I had in for 3rd filled the other places.
For whatever reason I have become psychologically addicted to exotics and can't seem to break away from it.
I also have a psychological aversion to larger outlays on the one bet which in the case of trifecta betting prevents me from including all my place selections for 2nd and 3rd. (usually only 5-6 in addition to the win selections)
The psychology of punting is the biggest aspect to conquer.
In my case I have identified my downfall but have trouble changing my ways.

Imagele, [my god, how did you come up with that. I had to do an edit to correct my spelling of it]

I was totally blind when I wrote that previous post of mine last night. Now I'm totally embarrassed.

OK, I'll catch you up on the big thing in your post I noticed. There are other points but tidily only.
"When I placed a trifecta I took Talons Shown to win and did not include Charmed Lady for 1st or 2nd. (unconsciously influenced by the spruikers on track and the air waves and the tote board.)"

Problem solving starts small.
Try this: NEVER EVER [NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER...GOT THAT?] TURN YOUR RADIO [or TV] ON EXCEPT AT THE JUMP. NEVER, NEVER ,NEVER, NEVER LISTEN TO SPRUIKERS ANYWHERE [unless they are 5'6 and 38-32-38 and me- o- my, they have a something called a 'special' on offer, just for you].

Cheers mate.

What a coincidence. I dreamed of someone like that last night.
At 60 yrs old the dream was welcome.

I'm there too [age] and have the same dreams:-)

You said the same thing last Sunday. Do you suggest we just ignore everything you post on a Saturday night from here on in?

LMAO
 

Crash you lunatic, stop drinking and posting. Trust me, i know the feeling.

Lucky we don't have night racing on the gallops on a Saturday eh crash?

:D


I usually unwind with a few on a Saturday night, but wouldn't trust myself to bet or post. So I go play online poker (free) so I get a buzz, but no damage is ever done.

Crash,
Just looking at this post again and wondering what a straight up exacta is.
Your other tip, (Brom's fidelity, (Felinity) ran 3rd.

Hi Imagele,

A Quinella is picking two horses to finish or second in any order (1st and 2nd), you can pick more than two.

An exacta is picking two horses to finish in correct order (ist and 2nd), you can pick more than two.

A straight up exacta is picking only two horses to finish in correct order (1st and 2nd).

Unless crash means by straight up, he took his horse to win with the field for 2nd

Thanks Chrome.
I know all about exactas and quinellas.
The term "straight up" had me foxed.
I couldn't understand why Crash was claiming to have Snagged the exacta for $20-00 on Charmed Lady/Broms Felinity when that horse ran 3rd.
I guess he meant he took the field with Charmed lady for $2-00 at a cost of $20-00

On reflection I can see that crash has probably taken his 2 sels. with the field in an exacta for a return of $101-00 (supertab)
A bit of a contradiction really.
Half his exacta investment on Charmed Lady would have returned $130-00 (supertab)

[QUOTE=Imagele]On reflection I can see that crash has probably taken his 2 sels. with the field in an exacta for a return of $101-00 (supertab)
A bit of a contradiction really.
Half his exacta investment on Charmed Lady would have returned
$130"

'guess he meant he took the field with Charmed lady for $2-00 at a cost of $20-00'

A 'straight up' exacta is 1/field. One on top, everything else below['straight up', get it?].

You have got it right mate. I was a bit swizzled when I posted. The money the handbrake was counting was from my 4 win bets [ I never mentioned all of them in my tips I don't think] at $... a pop.

Cheers.

Chrome and Mad had it, but my hat tips to that one Sportz !!!

Ratings or Assessments?
 

Hi crash,

Very much appreciate the time you've taken with this thread, it's been great reading.

If I could play devil's advocate for a moment, you say that you subscribe to a form guide with ratings, yet encourage people not to believe in the opinion of others; Isn't this a straight out contradiction?

I'm posing this as a question due to my belief that these ratings you are using are in fact no more than an assessment of a horse's performance rather than true ratings. For me, to secure a true rating, you need to include as many of the valid variables that are available at your disposal and rate them accordingly within a structured framework, something your service simply does not do. How can you justify spending the time determining the merits of a jockey change or a jump up in distance or a wide gate when next assessing a horse's chances, when the starting point given by your rating figure has not previously included this information?, it just doesn't make any sense.

I actually subscribe to the basic package on the same site and find it contains more than enough information for what I need. I compliment this service with a subscription to an online video replay site and tape as many races as I can to assist me with my selection process. Like you said, "I just 'do the form' and make my selections and decide how I'll bet them", add to that your thoughts on the types of races you target, and it's very similar paths we take in trying to find a winner.

Thanks again for this thread.


dundas lane .........

Without putting too fine a point on it. You are a ****** Dunce. That form service does not supply my selections, I do you great big dill. It is how I use them you broken spanner. Obviously I am doing something right which you have completely missed [the point]. I need cretins like you as much as a hole in the head because I just know you are going to go on and on and on with your point. Which is [obviously], you haven't a clue how to make a buck at this game and should take up golf. I do not suffer fools gladly and you are a big one because your [expert?] 'summery' is not only absurd, but childish.

Serious comment or even criticism I will politely respond too, but fools I will give short shift too and you display all the symptoms of one.

Cheers and good luck with your golf handicap. It couldn't be worse than your punting one, obviously.

Hi crash,

I see that you’re a devotee of Donald Rumsfeld. Ask the question, then answer it in a manner you’d like it to be answered, or in this case, presetting the agenda so you’ll always end up looking like a winner no matter what, simple yet brilliant.

Problem for you is, it’s only the simple who are ever fooled!

The next time you claim to being a handicapper, don’t forget to mention the training wheels you use; wonky one’s at that.

101, 112, 105, 125, 117, 108, 120, 99, 102 …………………………..



dundas lane ……….



Ps I’d much rather discuss the issues at hand; if you’re ever interested.

****************

Don't knock 'training wheels' [you obviously could use some] and if I'm still on them after 35+yrs. of handicapping, well maybe I should try going for my handicapping license now. What do you think?

You are the only 'issue' at hand here mate and I suggest you remove it and give yourself [it] a rest. You'll go blind otherwise:-)

Considering the success my tips had and the animosity it has attracted, rest assured that I will never bother repeating this exercise. My first time ever offering a tip thread and certainly my last.

"Considering the success my tips had and the animosity it has attracted,"

Hi Crash..I'm pretty certain that the tips had nothing to do with it [animosity]...lol

That said..your tips blitzed mine on the day and I salute you. Congratulations!

Thanks w924.

I had a good day as you and others here do too. I also have bad days.

I was only ever trying to help other punters here, not prove anything about my handicapping ability. All I seem to have achieved is having one of the services I use denigrated as rubbish [nice rubbish if you know how to use it, is all I can say], for who knows what [real] reason. My solution to avoid that in the future is simple and has already been said in my previous post.

Cheers and thanks for the support.

Crash...........
 

Crash

I really have thought long and hard about posting a reply with regard to the posting behaviour of yourself and other forum members. (Maybe not long enough.... because here I am posting! :D)

I have an observation that I'd like to detail to you (and the other forum members) and as it is an observation, it in turn represents my opinion.

The first point I'd like to make is that your tips have been very good and I'm sure a number of forum members (and guest) have made money form them, which in turn is obviously appreciated.

The second point is that I'm not exactly sure if you know why you post them on the forum. At first I thought like most of us that "bear our punting soul" on a regular basis - with some good, bad and indifferent results - in an attempt to help your fellow punter, enjoy some glory and actively participate in a public forum and provide a vibrant forum for us members to benefit from.

However, I'm not entirely convinced that this is enough reward for your contribution. To incessantly, knowingly and actively object and demur other forum members contributions to the point of overbearing others views is not healthy and does not facilitate the core characteristic of what a public forum does - providing more than one point of view.

Baiting, goading and imperious behaviour really is self-indulgent and gratuitous to the point of being obtuse.

If it is unconditional love, approval, refinforcement, recognition, appreciation, praise acclaim.... or any other word for self-confirmation - I think you are going the wrong way about it.

It is equitable to presuppose that - from your own divulgence - you are a successful (?) conveyance in the Punting World.

But seriously mate, all the negativity is really disagreeable.

I admit that I have not been one to follow your tips - and not for any particular reason or issue - but I do take umbrage at your Modus Operandi.

In summary, your tips are appreciated (As all successful tips are !), but the negativity, goading and pursuit of self-proclomation as the "be-all-and-end-all" is not engaing.

Good Luck in the future (should you continue to post or not)

Yours In Punting

P.S. Mate, I don't know you from a bar of soap - but for f**k sake grow-up

All I seem to have achieved is having one of the services I use denigrated as rubbish [nice rubbish if you know how to use it, is all I can say], for who knows what [real] reason.

Crash, I didnt't read it that way at all.(.If You are referring to what Dundas Lane (I think it was) wrote.

I have only read good things about the service you utilise.

Stix, you make some excellent points there..and writing things which I ( and surely others) have considered posting.

Yes its time everyone grew up and stopped the insults and esp the arrows for such ridiculous things such "bad" spelling..for Christs sake... nine times out of ten , the person having a go about anothers spelling makes just as many sp mistakes... ******? and what the hell does spelling have to do with reasoned discussion?

The great thing (well it should be) is that everyone can participate on this forum and be taken seriously regardless of educational background, or spelling ability. Provoking people to attack by name calling and ridicule is a fast track to animosity,. we get back what we put out...so surely we owe it to ourselves to behave accordingly?

Thanks Stix

The problem with perception in cyber space is that any form of challenge or criticism of others views is often seen as aggression when it very rarely is. I am not one to turn over and cop it up ....... just so some here can feel smug or self righteous. Anyone who has a point of contention regarding my views on racing [or anything], I'm quite happy to discuss the issue and don't view their point as aggression. However, if they want to play the man because they have perceived aggression [instead of a point] and feel challenged, I will repay in kind.

Hi Stix,
I hope you realize the implications of some of the stuff in your post and especially your last line [your real view perhaps?] I do appreciate your honesty though.
Please never take up teaching, because your 'lecture about positiveness' falls [just a little] short of the mark in it's obviously well meant goal.
I am not offended because you intentions were obviously kind. I do think you lost your initial purpose a bit though.

I think I will say no more on the subject, as you have said it yourself already and very ironically too. I think it describes your whole post far better than I could in so few words:
Quote:
'But seriously mate, all the negativity is really disagreeable'.

Cheers.