Percentum's Tips
 

I'm returning from a long spell. Have spent much time seduced by exotics - good when they arrive but not fussed on the droughts in between.
These should be backed win only.
Earlier research produced about 16% profit on turnover based on about 2000 races. The strike rate was around 18%.
Top pick (first horse listed) made about 25% on turnover in that workout.
Bets are in fields of 13-14 (top 2) and 15+ (top 3).
Recent good winner was Doonan Dancer ($100+ in NSW) . Needless to say, I was doing my own thing trying to wring something out of trifectas and missed it. that's what happens when you're a greedy old turnip squeezer.
There can be frustrating runs -well, show me a method where there aren't. Apologies for Jack's Tip - it seemed funny at the time.

Sydney
R2 4 and 13
R8 5, 11 and 4

Brisbane
R2 1 and 3
R5 8, 5 and 15
R6 3 and 8
R7 6 and 11
R8 14 and 7

Adelaide
R3 1 and 6

New Zealand
R6 16 and 2
R7 4 and 8
R8 4 and 13

Good Luck everyone!

Percentum's Late Tips for Perth
 

R6 8, 9 and 4
R7 3, 14 and 5
R9 12 and 2

Good luck.

Summary for Sat Dec 3
 

Bets 32
Outlay $32
Return (NSW TAB) $22.8
Progressive: loss of $9.2

Percentum's Tips for Sunday 4 December 2005
 

Canberra
R6 14 and 12

Murray Bridge
R7 5, 2 and 3
R8 4 and 10

Swan Hill
R6 3 and 2
R7 4 and 1
R8 1 and 7
R9 1 and 9

Launceston
R6 1 and 3

Western Australia
R8 9, 7 and 2

Good Luck

SUMMARY AND PROGRESSIVE Sunday 4 December 2005
 

Summary for Sunday 4 December 2005

Bets 22
Outlay $22
Return (NSW TAB) $40.4

Progressive
Outlay $54
Return $63.2
Profit $9.2

Percentum,

Nice results today.

Do you use level staking in the races ? What if there is a short priced fav ?

Thanks Wes
Unfortunately I find it difficult to bet race by race due to time constraints and also because I don't think I've got the temperament so what I list here are the raw mechanical figures based on flat level stakes. I'm not a staking plan man (more through ignorance than research or insight). I think the thing to do with these if you can bet race by race is to set yourself a minimum price and bet only when overs are available. I used to sit and watch my top 3 and bet top 2 at 15/1 or better and 3rd at 25/1 or better. As you know, if you look at the results panel on any Sunday, there aren't too many winners over 15/1 on any given day so there were many days when I'd sit all day for a few bets and no return. In the long run I was doing okay but it wasn't fun. This method is the most reliable mechanical thing I've come up with myself. I went through about 7000 races using my ratings method and found that profitability only started when the field size was 13+. Strike rates were slightly diminished but the profitability was there because of the better prices available in bigger, more open fields. I've spent a few years trying to make money out of the exotics but find them most frustrating and I chopped and changed. A few weeks after giving away boxing my top 4 in fields of 15+ the Doonan Dancer trifecta lobbed paying $27 000 (rated 3-1-4). Missing out on this, I did a giant dummy spit on the exotics (although I still have a go on about 20 Group and Listed races a year).

I notice Jack's Tip has been erased from here. Fair dinkum, Jack will be upset.

What happened to the Joe Keating thread? First Jack (who, incidentally, is inconsolable) and now Joe. I was interested in the field size observations for reasons that have now been deposited in history's dustbin. Does anyone know the Keating view on this matter. My experience and research show that the bigger the field, the better the profitability. That, though is betting mechanically, placing bets before jump of race one etc.

Percentum's Tips for Wednesday 7 December 2005
 

Sorry these are late. Unfortunately work sometimes interferes with life's important pursuits.
Gawler
R7 5 and 6
R8 1, 5 and 11

Brisbane
R6 12 (each way) Rose Hussar

Good Luck everyone.

Update
 

7 units out for zero return today.
Progressive

Outlay $61
Return $63.2
Profit / Loss +$2.2

Percentum,

Seemed like a bad today. I had 5 bets for only 1 winner.

Lets hope it improves tommorrow.

Yes Wes. My research that is the basis of my ratings method was done on metropolitan races only so I probably should stick to them. I can't think of a logical reason why they shouldn't succeed midweek, however. Anyway, you've been going really well and there's always a downside in this game.
Cheers

Percentum's Tips for Saturday 10 December 2005
 

I have that feeling of optimistic enthusiasm today. Lots of big fields all harbouring potential long priced winners. Our two major characteristics as punters - optimism and resilience.

(I like Jim Killen's description of all the discarded losing tickets lying around or flying around a racetrack when the final race has been run...'the litter of optimism'.)

Anyway, for what they're worth, here are my tips for today.

Sydney
R4 9 and 1
R7 1 and 2
R8 8, 2 and 5)

Melbourne
R6 12 and 1

Brisbane
R2 3 and 6
R3 1, 9 and 12
R4 1 and 7
R5 10, 14 and 3
R6 9, 1 and 12
R7 1, 8 and 14

New Zealand
R3 5 and 9
R9 15 and 6
R10 2, 9 and 10
R11 3, 8 and 16
R12 5, 11 and 10

Stony Creek
R9 15 and 8

Good luck everyone.
Perth thoughts will be posted after scratchings. An exciting day there.

Percentum's Tips For Perth 10 December 2005
 

Perth
R2 5 and 10
R6 11,5 and 4
R7 3 and 1
R8 14, 15 and 11

Update
 

Progressive Results
To 10 December 2005

Today
Outlay $50
Return $38.1

Progressive
Outlay $111
Return $101.3
Loss $9.7 (NSW TAB)

A lot of short priced winners today for the type of race I am targetting.

Percentum's Tips For Sunday 11 December 2005
 

Cowra
R7 2 and 11

Ballarat
R7 2 and 6
R9 5, 2 and 3

Update
 

Progressive Results to 11 December 2005

Today
Outlay $7
Return $15.4

Progressive
Outlay $118
Return $116.7
Loss of $1.3

Nice result today
 

Percentum,

Nice work today. I had a quick look at your tips and noticed if you drop off your Saturday tips you are going quite well (with a nice POT).

Keep it going as I have been checking these each time you post.

Good Luck.

Percentum's Tips Tuesday 13 December 2005
 

Townsville
R6 9 and 3

Tamworth
R8 1 and 2

Good luck.

Update
 

Results For Tuesday 13 December 2005

Outlay $4
Return nil

Progressive
Bets 122
Outlay $122
Return $116.7
Loss $5.3

Percentum's Tips for Wednesday 14 December 2005
 

Rosehill
R7 1 and 2

Sandown
R6 11, 6 and 5

Port Lincoln
R8 7 and 9

Pinjarra
R3 3, 2 and 9

Whatever you're on good luck.

Update Wednesday 14 December 2005
 

Outlay Today $10
Return ziltch

Progressive
Outlay $132
Return
$116.7

Can't buy a winner. Oh well.

Percentum's Tips for Thursday 15 December 2005
 

Geraldton
R4 4 and 5
R5 1 and 5
R7 4 and 5
R8 2 and 4

Update Thursday 15 December 2005
 

Today

Outlay $8 Return $20.3

Progressive
Outlay $140
Return $137
Progressive Loss of $3

Percentum's Tips For Saturday 17 December
 

These are all win only:

New Zealand
R1 5 and 16
R7 8, 16 and 1
R10 1 and 4

Sydney
R6 7, 3 and 21

Melbourne
R6 10 and 12
R8 1 and 15
R9 13 and 5

Brisbane
R1 8, 3 and 2
R3 5 and 9
R4 3 and 2
R5 5 and 7
R6 7, 14 and 15
R7 9 and 11
R8 16, 7 and 19

Good Luck today.... nice win yesterday.

Update Saturday 17 December 2005
 

Outlay $33
Return $47.2 (NSW TAB)

Divs:
S6 Aqua D'Amore $8.1
M8 Vainsky $1 (late scr)
NZ7 Alkicita $18.5
B5 A Little Naughty $5.3
B6 Strawberry Malt $7.5
B7 High Academy $6.8


Progressive Results
Outlay ($1 win bets) = $173
Return (NSW TAB divs) = $184.2
Overall profit = $11.2
Profit on turnover = 6.4%

Percentum's Tips For Sunday 18 December 2005
 

These are win only:

Cranbourne
R10 4 and 7

Sunshine Coast
R3 6 and 5
R4 1 and 7
R8 2, 7 and 10

Horsham
R5 9 and 3
R8 1 and 2
R9 2 and 4

Launceston
R6 1 and 2
R9 4 and 3

Bunbury
R7 2 and 7

Update Sunday 18 December 2005
 

Today's Bets

Outlay = $21
Return = $15.5

Winners
Sunshine Coast R8 Holy Lover $3.8
Horsham R8 Great Steps $5.7
Launceston R9 Miewa's Quest $6

Progressive Results
Bets = 194
Outlay = $194
Return = $199.7
Profit $5.7

Percentum's Tips for Monday 19 December 2005
 

These are win only:

Sale
R8 10 and 2

Narromine
R6 14 and 7
R7 3 and 5

Cessnock
R7 3 and 5

Good Luck!

Update Monday 19 December 2005
 

Outlay = $8
Return = $1
Divs:
Cessnock R7 Tondano $1 (scratched)

Progressive
Bets = 202
Outlay = $202
Return = $200.7
Loss = $1.3

Percentum's Tips for Tuesday 20 December 2005
 

Wangaratta
R6 4 and 1
R8 3 and 8

Update Tuesday 20 December 2005
 

Outlay $4
Return nil

Progressive:
Outlay $206
Return $200.7
Loss $5.3

Percentum's Tips Wednesday 21 December 2005
 

These are win only:

Strathalbyn
R7 5, 3 and 4

Ascot
R7 1, 5 and 12

Good luck.

Update Wednesday 21 December 2005
 

Bets 6
Outlay $6
Return $11.4

Winners
Strathalbyn R7 Stage Boy $6.7
Ascot R7 Early Express $4.7

Progressive
Bets 212
Outlay $212
Return $212.1

Comments:
#1 Wow! Ten cents profit!
# Both winners were top picks (horses are listed in rated order)

Percentum's Tips for Thursday 22 December 2005
 

These are win only:

Tamworth
R8 1 and 3

Pinjarra
R3 1 and 12
R4 1, 11 and 3
R5 7, 2 and 5
R7 10, 2 and 16

Good luck.

Update Thursday 22 December 2005
 

Bets 13
Outlay $13
Return $9.8

Winners
Tamworth R8 Search For Glory $2.8

Pinjarra R5 Classic Quarters $7.0

Progressive
Bets 225
Outlay $225
Return $221.9
Loss $3.1

Percentum's Tips for Friday 23 December 2005
 

Lismore

R8 7 and 3

Good luck.

Update Friday 23 December 2005
 

Today's Bets

Bets 2
Outlay $2
Return nil

Progressive
Bets 227
Outlay $227
Return $221.9
Overall Losing $5.1