Carlyon Stakes
 

5-8.30 ESSENDON MAZDA CARLYON STAKES 1200 M
Of $177000 Of $175000 and $2000 trophy. 1st $105000 and trophy of $2000, 2nd $31500, 3rd $15750, 4th $7875, 5th $4375, 6th $3500, 7th $3500, 8th $3500. Starter Subsidy: $150 for non-prize earning runners. For Three-Years-Old and Upwards. Standard Weight for Age. (GROUP 2). No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 14+3 EM
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No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen RTG
1 BOMBER BILL Maureen Harry V Duric 7 57.5 (106.5)
2 SPARK OF LIFE Allan Denham G Boss 1 57.5 (112)
3 VALEDICTUM Danny O'Brien Steven King 5 57.5 (108)
4 CASUAL PASS Mathew Ellerton N Ryan 4 57.5 (107)
5 SHOW BARRY John Rattle 2 57.5 (106)
6 AMTRAK Mark Riley S Baster 6 57.5 (104)
7 CALIFORNIA DANE Lee Freedman N Callow 3 54 (93)
8 VIRAGE DE FORTUNE Bruce McLachlan C Williams 8 51.5 (103)

This looks to be the first real class race of 2006.
Just wondering what everyones thoughts are and without seeing any market yet what soort of prices will be offered.

Should be a good race. Spark of Life drawing the inside has got me wondering what may happen with California Dane, Virage de Fortune getting the outside means it will have to go back. And who knows-old Bomber may just be winding up again at the 200 and come from the clouds.

$1.70 California Dane
$3.70 Virage De Fortune
$6 Spark Of Life
$11 Bomber Bill
$18 Valedictum
$31 Casual Pass
$41 Show Barry
$71 Amtrak

spark of life is overs after its last run. California is unders, but should win

My ratings have California Dane as the highest rating horse this year so far, for what it is worth... But there are 3 horses rating 30 or better, but a gap of 6 is a pretty fair gap normally.... watch Ol Bomber run a race :)

25/01/2006 8:30 MOONEE VALLEY 5 7 CALIFORNIA DANE 37
25/01/2006 8:30 MOONEE VALLEY 5 2 SPARK OF LIFE 31
25/01/2006 8:30 MOONEE VALLEY 5 8 VIRAGE DE FORTUNE 30
25/01/2006 8:30 MOONEE VALLEY 5 5 SHOW BARRY 24
25/01/2006 8:30 MOONEE VALLEY 5 4 CASUAL PASS 22
25/01/2006 8:30 MOONEE VALLEY 5 3 VALEDICTUM 21
25/01/2006 8:30 MOONEE VALLEY 5 6 AMTRAK 21
25/01/2006 8:30 MOONEE VALLEY 5 1 BOMBER BILL 15

They'll all run a race, xpt. But some will run it a little quicker than others. :D

It looks like C/Dane has been rated by some here on future [possible] performance. Certainly not on past performance, considering the filed it is up against in this race. This is a GIANT leap in class for the Dane. Has been winning by up to 4 lengths, but against what??? Zilch.

Californian Dane just hasn't any Group or Stakes standing. Spark of Life owns the race on Group performance and earnings, average earnings, distance and speed at the weight and track. Boss on board will help too. For a 10yr. old, Bomber Bill ran a beauty first up, but it was below the proven top class he meets here [Casual Pass, Spark of Life, Validictum and Bomber Bill].

C/Dane on 'possible' performance [hype] improvement might win. I don't think 'might' is something that can be rated here. As far as time goes for 1200m., nothing special has been shown and as far as the horses raced against so far by C/Dane [nobodies in comparison to the competition faced today], there is nothing there to justify anything except odds of around 7/1. and up. Obviously an [eventual] class horse, but it's all in the past 'doing' and not in the future 'should or might do' that odds and ratings should be set I think.

I'll back C/Dane at good odds, not hype odds. $4 for Spark of Life would get my money, but for $8 or over I'd take a punt on the Dane as it 'might' win.

He broke the track record over this course and distance at his last start! I will admit that there is a theory that horses which break track records don't perform well at their next start because it takes too much out of them. Don't know that will apply here.


He hasn't beaten the horses that Spark Of Life has, but last start he thrashed Tereschenko and Stickpin and both horses have won impressively since and look quite promising.

On past performance, Spark Of Life IS in with a top chance here. I was one that really doubted him first up. After all, he'd never won at 1000m and only won 2 from 5 first up (nothing special given his record). So I don't really take much notice of his poor run there. At MV over 1200m, he's won 2 from 3 including the Manikato Stks. BUT there is another interesting thing to note about his form. I personally rate Spark Of Life higher on rain affected tracks. After his first up failure, he now has just 3 wins from 10 runs on good tracks, but he has 7 from 9 on dead to heavy. The one race that he did lose at MV was on a good track. The same sort of situation exists with Virage De Fortune. She's won 2 from 2 at the track and 1 from 1 at track and distance, but she also seems to prefer rain affected tracks. She's won 2 from 5 on good tracks, but 5 from 5 on dead or worse. I assume that Moonee Valley will be a good track tonight, so it will be interesting to see how that affects things. Who knows? Perhaps Bomber Bill will upset the applecart.

Sportz,

For a 10yr. old. Bomber is some horse !

Californian Dane's average earnings:$18,130. 2 maidens, a 1MW [$23k] and 2 open HCP's [$50k]. Won by lengths but so would half the field running tonight if they were in the Dane's past races so far. Record times are often set in these type of races were the front runner is under absolutely no pressure. Meaningless.

Spark of Life's average is $42.079. Distance: 6/4.0.2 Track 3/2.0.1 all class races. Lets get some persecutive here and here is some totally 'silly' perspective: IAS openers for the Dane are under $2 and for Sparky over $5.
Hype, long live hype as an odds setter [oh, I do love a false favorite]. Would you take odds-on for the Dane Sportz? A 1 x4 win and place bet on Sparky sounds a lot more sensible to me.

Guess where my money is going?

There will be no 3rd Divvy. Still take that bet on Sparky?

just having a deeper look at the form, and i am leaning towards Spark of Life. Very good this t/d, proven class performer, can ignore last run, because it never goes well over 1000m. I think the pre-post $5.50 is too good to refuse

I'm with you there Chuck. Too good to refuse and even the place odds [for 2nd. just in case] would be as good as the odds for Californian Dane to win on openers [$1.85 the Dane. $5.50 Sparky].

A 2 horse Exacta might be a hard one. The Dane might wilt in this class with the big boys. Never been in a 'pressure cooker' race yet. Might freak out 1st. time at this level :-)

2/7x1/2/3/4/7 the Tri.

[QUOTE=crash]Sportz,

Record times are often set in these type of races were the front runner is under absolutely no pressure. Meaningless.

QUOTE]

Bit of a strange comment there, if he is under no pressure wouldn't that mean he would slow them up, hence a slower time. I admit the record doesn't mean that much because Can lago beat it the week before (obviously the tracks racing very well) but the way he beat them other 3yo with 58kg and the form coming out of that race is hard to look past, then take into account the older horses have to give him 4kg, he will be extremely tough to beat, a deserved favorite.

If the trainer is confident, then I am in the same boat.

My favourite jock is on board, this is a young horse on the up, and I think CD will give the other older competitors a run for their money.

I'll be shouting for CD tonight, but the price is just not right for me.

Anyone lining up to take odds-on for the Dane in a first effort jumping several grades into a G2 will be very welcomed by any bookie and all other punters.

If a track record means immediate favoritism in a group 2, then where are all those other record holders who never made it beyond HCP level? Any quick check of track records will reveal heaps of them. I backed and tipped one last Sat. [in the tipping comp. in that 'other' forum], Landloper in a 45K race at Sandown who broke the 1600m record. Before that the horse had never won more than a 22k race and beat Kounthekash [a better horse] doing it. Are we going to see this 'speedy' 6yr. old in a group 2 anytime soon and winning? I don't think so.

The Dane's other times beside that one run at M/V are nothing more than very ordinary. Anyway, I love setting myself up to eat humble pie and I can look forward to either heaps of 'told you so' replies after the race or ...not a squeak from anyone :-)

I'll be dutching spark of life and virage de fortune. race in two for mine.

cheers
umrum

Hi crash,

No I won't be taking any worse than evens, but I think he'll win.

It is not the time alone that he ran, it is the way he ran, the ease and dominance in all his past races that he's won.

Sandown times are exceptionally quicker than normal because of the run down the hill.

Look at all the Sandown times over distances and compare them to almost all other metro tracks, they are faster by a fair way.

We all have opinions, that's what sets markets ;)

It will be interesting to see if the Dane can win showing the same 'ease and dominance' among this field. I think this is a good race for him to gain some experience in a pressure race. I also think Lee has got himself a good one here who might go on to great things [win or lose tonight], but I'm sure he would be 'coughing' at the odds. A lot of punters will be connned by the light weight. He won't go any faster and the topies run with their alloted weight all the time mostly.

Well, he wasn't odds on, Crash. Quite good value in the end I thought. A good run by Virage De Fortune too.

2.45 on Austote (minus commission) was the highest rated horse so far this year.. according to my ratings.. to take it on was pretty brave I reckon... I think we can safely say that class wasn't a problem tonight... a good win against a pretty fair field... Spark of Life disappointed IMHO...

Yeah, I think he was a bit disappointing, but I stick by what I said in my earlier post. I do think he needs at least a dead track to perform at his best. Tonight's result makes it just 3 wins from 11 starts on good tracks, but he's won 7 from 9 on dead or worse. Not sure what they will do with him now after 2 poor runs?

Humble pie for me. I'm going to kill myself. I missed a $2.20 winner:-)
Fell asleep and missed the Race!!

Gday crash

don't do that ol mate.... :)

The last couple of days haven't been great so I will take the 2.30... I need it .. it all helps....

I don't know about anything else guys but the run by Casual Pass is one of the best you will see for him to finish 3rd couldn't even keep up for most of the race to finish 3rd was amazing and not really that far away either.

i ended taking both, so not too bad....SOL was very disappointing....but as usual he will win a group 1 next start when no one expects him to lol....the dane could be something special