A maths question
 

Horse A 48.5% place s.r
Horse B 42.5% place s.r
Horse C 37% place s.r
Horse D 33 % place s.r

If I were to take horses with those place strike rates in a box quinella, what would the expected strike rate of getting the quinella be?? assuming an average 10 horse race.

At a guess I would assume around 35 % but it may be lower than that.

Hi Doc.,

You would have to know the place SR of the other 6 horses in the race before you can work out the answer.

And to clarify that the place strike rate was for placing first or second only..... obviously disregarding third placings - Maybe some bright spark could do an Any2 probability for the Doc....

Stix, the strike rates are for 1st 2nd and 3rds. They are not strike rates for individual horses as such but are for horses that fit a certain criteria. I would have assumed that horse A would finish in the top 2 about 2/3 of the time making it about a 36% chance of being in the quinella, and there would be a formula for working out the other combinations chances.

Doc,

....and the other 6 horses in the race all have 100% place S/Rates [extreme example]. What chance then for A,B,C,D ? You must work out the win% chance for these 4 hourses to work out the probability for the quin. scenario you mention, otherwise your stuffed and guessing. Place SR is useless mathamaticaly for 4 [only] horses in a 10 horse race.

And if you knew all those percentages would it be any sort of guide. Look at the Doust system thread and we have Darky giving us results on horses with a 30% strike rate. They apparantly win 16% of the time. Strike rate not much of an indication there methinks.

KV

Believe any proposed reality you like Kenny.

Dr. Ron, It is not so easy to work out the chances of a horse to run in the Quinella in the manner you described. Using place strike-outs mean virtually zip in this way, e.g. the horse with the lowest place strike-rate could be a Group 1 performer, while the horse with the highest place strike-rate could still be running around in restricted races.

Better still is to work out the chances based on price - a far better indicator.

Hi La Mer, the 4 horses are actually the top 4 horses in ranked order of my selection system that I am experimenting with. The top ranked runs a place 48.5 % of the time and so on. The point regARDING THE CLASS THEY RUN IN DOSENT REALLY HAVE AN EFFECT AS the results come from horses running in similar classes. Thanks for the replies anyway gents, as I will continue my trek towards the Holy Grail.

Hi KV!
Win% >= 30 place% >=50
Qualifyers: 47406 Winners: 8482 Return: $40735
Vic Tab. (Supertab, 2001 to date)
Shows you the folly of many a system.
Cheers Marcus

Now that you've explained the aspect Dr. Ron, that changes things. Have you or can you convert the ranking into prices? If so then you can then work out the chance of each runner to run a placing. Otherwise you can convert the actual strike rates into prices & go from there.

The DOS version of Price Predictor has a module that does this.

Marcus, can you sort those runners into the ones where they had those figures for the same class of races as the one they were about to race in. For example if they had a 35% win and 60% place record in open handicaps and then ran in an open handicap woul;d their strike rate and return be any better. I would guess that they would . As if their figures were gained in lower class races then they would not be expected to perform as well in higher class, if you understnd what I'm gettting at.

Dr Ron!
Yes I can, but that would involve programming, not only running a simple query.
If you are convinced in your heart of hearts that it has promise, I will do it.

But if it is only a fishing expedition, then I regretfully decline.
No hard feelings I hope.
I do not sell anything, do not charge for my time, but one must be realistic.

Also bear in mind, that the final selections would depend on your particular rating, meaning that it really wouldn't be to the benefit of the forum community

Good luck.

Good work Marcus, shows what a dud win and place SR's are and adds weight to what La mer is saying.

Qualifyers: 47406 Winners: 8482 Return: $40735

The above = A hiding and the poor house [tent].

No problems Marcus, it was more out of curiosity than anything else.