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If they could ride why are they stuck in the bush?
I'm fed up with poor rides by hopeless jockeys at country tracks.
I think I should give up betting except on metro tracks, Wed. and Sat. I'm getting a bit sick of watching atrocious planning, poor and even just plain dumb maneuvers and watching them position their mounts with either no where to go, or getting a good sit far too late to do anything with it because they have worn the horse out getting there. Yes there are some good country jockey's and a few good ones visiting from town, but for every one of those there are heaps that do nothing except get in their way [as often as they can]. If the ************s could ride well, they would be riding in town. As it is they are a traffic hazard with the occasional good run they just fluke. Why bother handicapping country races? Just get out the bl.... darts !!! |
Don't hold back, crash. Tell us what you really think.
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Who did you lose on Crash?
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Too many too often.
OK, a few good city riders have bad runs but these country boys do it with a consistency that is breathtaking !!! |
Run country meetings without jockeys. Just starve the runners for 3 days and and let them chase a bale of hay like a greyhound lure. It would sure make handicapping a lot easier.
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Or stick to the jockey my old mate / buddy /pal KENCHAR recommends A Robinson.
Cheers. darky |
Spriggsy and/or our old mate Greg aint too bad either.
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crash just bide your time & look for country/prov meets where a certain g.childs has 1 or 2 rides for the day - money for jam
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DAVEZ
Top observation there.
Cheers, darky |
Astute thinking guys [just back the good hoops].
It's a wonder that 95% of all other punters came up with that brain-wave too. That's why the odds on these good hoops are usually crap and way unders. To make it worse they lose often enough to make the short odds not worth taking because all the other hoops [some paid] make sure they do everything possible to get in their way or box them in and succeed often enough to make them poor bets in the long run [check the maths of following any good hoop's rides in the bush, you would go broke even if it's Greg Childs], or they are just getting paid enough by a desperate owner to ride a donkey that won't win unless God is in the saddle anyway. I might stick to the metro's for any serious bets for awhile. At least till I calm down 8-) |
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crash
crash you worry me, last bet i had on childs in the situation i described the odds were in the high teens, time before that were 7's or 8's, oh & btw he happened to win.
do i really need to tell you to steer clear of conveyances that every man & his dog are on? seems so.... patience, a punters best (only) friend. |
Daves,
Don't worry about this old trooper, worry about your maths 8-) 2 bricks don't build a house nor 2 bets build a long term profit. Do your maths on following the jockey [any jockey in fact] at country meetings. Loss. loss. loss. |
Sorry, Childs didn't even make the list.
Date: 01/08/2005 to 12/02/2006 State = AUSTRALIA Area = Country 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Strike Rate Rides Ryan G 115½ 88½ 55½½ 51 53 22.6% 508 Robinson A W 105 79½½ 69½ 50 34½ 20.7% 508 Graham P 101 89 115½ 92 82½ 13.2% 764 Spriggs Dale 71 54½ 58 49½ 38 15.6% 455 Robl P 68 51 48 37 32 19.3% 353 Whiteley C 60 29 27 27 34 23.8% 252 Yendall D 53 62 37½ 47 35½ 13.0% 407 Penza J 53 42 30 31 50 13.7% 388 Whitney J 45 49½ 52 36 37 11.6% 387 Travers M 44½½½ 42 47 46 39 13.6% 323 Clark T 44½ 43½ 36 51½ 28 11.2% 392 Crossland D 42 20 19½ 12 10 31.8% 132 Buckley G 41 57 57 43 47 9.3% 439 Dolendo M 40 45½ 37 40 43 10.7% 373 Duric V 40 43 26 21 26 15.7% 254 Coleman D 40 41 36 33 26½ 14.7% 272 Allen Matthew 40 20 19 12 18 25.2% 159 Cross B 38 37 48 40 33 10.6% 359 Wheeler R 38 30 31 27 25 13.9% 273 Nolen L 38 27½ 24 27 15 18.3% 208 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season 05/06 Tuesday, 14 February, 2006 |
He just made the city list [with 13.4 wins per 100 race]. At the very bottom. Any other 'money for jam' ideas?
Date: 01/08/2005 to 12/02/2006 State = AUSTRALIA Area = Metropolitan 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Strike Rate Rides Beadman D 83 66 51 39½ 33 23.9% 347 McCoull B 57 28 14 22 16 32.4% 176 Colless G 52 46½ 29 14 21 21.4% 243 Williams C 47 51 33 27 31 15.7% 300 Boss G 45 45½½ 24 35½ 31 16.9% 266 Byrne J 45 21 27 21½ 24 21.5% 209 Beasley D 44 39½ 37 27½ 34½ 14.9% 296 Nikolic D 44 28½ 42½ 31 28 16.4% 269 Harvey P J 41 22 17½½½ 11 8 30.8% 133 Beasley L 41 21 18 25 16 20.1% 204 Callow N 36½ 21 17 13 7 20.7% 174 McMahon R 35 29 22 20 15 14.1% 249 Brown J J 34 37 27½½ 13 20½ 17.2% 198 Cassidy L 34 32 44 44½ 31 11.3% 300 Taylor J 33 35 33 36 29 9.2% 357 Leckey S 33 27 18 14 17 18.5% 178 Purton Z 32 38½ 46 26 42 10.6% 301 Lindop Ms C 30 26 22 19 21 14.9% 201 Fujii K 29 41½ 26 17 29 11.5% 253 Childs G 29 21 25½ 21 26½ 13.4% 216 |
Important missing info their is average price and POT/LOT for those jocks. Childs doesn't get on all the shorties like Beadman for example, and Childs is still one of the best jocks in the country. Beautifully balanced, patient, rides them calmly (not these bananas taking off 10W like they're on a trail bike fleeing a crime).
You just have to take inability of jockeys into your assessments Crash. As you probably know I'm a ratings man - if you have a horse who is obviously a consistent 103 rater (I'm using expert form points rating as the example so you know what scale I'm talking here) and he has I.M.Hopeless on his back, no way in the world will I allow him his 103. He'll get 100 or so. If however he had I.M.Fabulous (doesn't exist) on his back, he'd get his full 103. As with anything, jockey is just another factor to be considered. If he had Mr Fabulous on his back, he might be priced $3.0 by me. With Hopeless on board, he might be $11, or whatever. I know it's the same thing that everyone has always said, but it's the right way - penalise the bad jockeys, don't penalise the good ones, and bet the overs. That's my opinion anyway!! |
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Hi Crash! I am probably out on a limb here, but I never take any notice of Jock or trainer any more in my ratings. (I used to!). As far as I am concerned the only entity in the race that is unaware of the price on the tote is the horse! That's what I concentrate on. In my opinion you are right about country jocks. And to prove that I am not blind re. jockey's abilities, I follow MS L Allpress who rides in NZ. She is good for a place if the horse is not shortish ie. >=15/1. or not too long ie. over 40/1. She is most prominent on long shots in feature races. I give away one of my secret tools, for the benefit of you all, most of you probably know it anyway. I have a record of every horse's winning price pattern and bet accordingly, regardless if I rated it on top or if it's the fav. It is amazing how many horses only win when the price is right???? How the h...l did they know? Good luck |
Faced with the stats of Child's poor strike rates [bottom in the city and not even registering in the country], it's amazing how you continue to believe that 2+2=5.
Give me a break Duritz. Drag up your proof on average prices. I've done enough leg-work I think on your unsubstantiated 'money for jam' claims. PS. The lowest price on the 'country list is:Buckley G 41 57 57 43 47 9.3% 439 . To make a very small profit on him, you would need an average of $10 approx. per ride [not in a pink fit]. Childs who didn't even make the list, would have to average a lot better. Any chance of that? About as much as the Martians landing at dawn tomorrow. |
???
Never laid claim to money for jam, and certainly don't think you can blindly follow a jockey and win, never said that either. What I SAID was that jockeys inability needs to be a major factor when you do the form. That's it. Apologies for trying to help. |
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Whatever you say. Lets leave it at that. You never mentioned 'money for jam' following Childs in the bush. |
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I am 100% with you on all of the above Lomaca. The original point of my thread: County jockeys suck [or they would be riding in the city]. I bet the form. the jocks let me down just too often. I couldn't care 2 bits who they are. They do a lousy job and the ones who are OK and on a good horse I think can win, their price is crap. Lets face it, we are dealing with horses with 2 to 10% SR most of the time. Waste of time regarding consistency of form. Without that, you may as well stand over the toilet bowl ripping up $50 notes. |
davez said the money for jam comment, not Duritz.
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Duritz, my sincere apologies for the 'jam' quote that wasn't you. Very similar names and easy to confuse in the heat of things.
I do agree that Child's is a good Jockey, a wonderful rider in fact, but I don't think any Jockey in Australia has a POT figure [until I see evidence showing otherwise] for their rides, only a LOT figure. If they had a POT figure we all would have heard or read about it in detail by now. If any good jockey is on a good reliable horse in the bush, you won't be seeing any 'overs' too often [a long wait between drinks], because all the other punters will be see exactly what your seeing, -the bleeding obvious. They deserve more credit than you seem to be giving them[?]: overs because the 'public' hasn't noticed? You have to spot things far more obscure than who the jockey is to find overs nowadays. Otherwise, how can there be overs on a horse in the bush capable of winning with Child's on-board? It does not compute. Unders is the more likely situation, a bit like looking for overs on a Beadman/good horse/Waterhouse combo. It will be a long wait. |
My initial reply here in this thread to nobody in particular, was basically a response to flippant one-liners in general [meaning] that it's simple to win, just do this or that etc.etc.
Winning anywhere is a hard ask, winning in the bush is especially hard due to the mostly low class, unreliable runners and unreliable rides from jockeys [all three often combine to make a mess of anyones handicapping or ratings]. I'm sure many here get a bit peeved with the 'simplicity of winning' theories trotted out in this forum and the underlying innuendo often accompanying them -'winnings easy unless your a dummy [or I'm a genius]'. If it was simply to win, we would be rolling in it. If we were enjoying that situation, we wouldn't be here unless we just enjoyed slumming it :-) |
Yeah I agree re the jocks, ie that you can't blindly follow one, and that "overs" is not as easy to find as just finding a skillful rider. To paraphrase Oliver (D, for Damien, not D for Dickens), - "the best jockey is the one who makes the fewest mistakes."
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I wouldn't classify theses as serious systems and I doubt very much that the "intelligent" forum members - expect to profit from them - and would only actually follow thier "theory" (with very little capital investment - as you correctly pointed out it's too hard to win to donate back to them) - where they have not attempted their normal amount of analysis...... and would like to appease their desire to have a "small" wager... IMHO, these theroies/annicdotes are similar to those threads such as - best jockey, luckiest win, top 5 horses..... memories that are recounted.... and of course are to be discounted as a "Real winning" theory..... but then again.... creativity opens doors to insight....... Be Good ! :D |
what a load of twaddle.
its not a system do not bet on every ride take your glasses off, give em a clean & reread my 1st post there was not ever any implication "its easy to win & your a ****wit if you cant" dont quote me stats, they are meaningless my original post was intended to be of assistance because once again you appeared to be banging your head against whatever, last time i make that mistake |
Davez,
Angry exclamations and saying stats. mean nothing doesn't really give any more weight to your original point that following Childs in the bush is 'money for jam' [it is your quote isn't it?]. OK, so we don't 'bet on every ride', which ones then? A little indication of your meaning might not go astray if you were [genuinely] try to help, otherwise It just leads to thinking you mean only following the Child's rides that win at good odds[?]. If that's the case then we can all 'clean our glasses', throw away our stats. and follow your original kind lead to riches in the bush :-) Obviously that is not what you meant [I hope]. |
can you not read properly? you continually misrepresent &/or misunderstand the meaning of posts that many members make & then go on & on & on, trying to do ....hmm what i wonder, then again i dont.
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