Mo's early FOOTY comments
 

Won't be risking too much of my betting Bank on the NAB CUP.
All matches early in this series are played by teams with different objectives.Some go out with winning game plans.Some use it as a trial.Some for fitness testing.
And this is the key to making money from the series.
Sort out the teams that will be trying hard to win,and the teams that can still win without really trying.
I still remember the difference in the CUP presentation acceptance last year to Carlton and that of St.Kilda the year before.
Also reminds me of the acceptance of Ben Cousins Brownlow Award.
It is great to be humble when you win,but when the world acknowledges your achievement,it is time to appreciate what the public are saying.

Here are my Ratings for the commencement of the year.
They are based on the finish last year without modifications regarding team list changes.
They are the Scores I would expect the teams to score at a Neutral venue with the Average team list lining up.
Comments made regarding the Premiership.

ST.KILDA . 124 Blew their chance,twice.Downhill from here
ADELAIDE . 123 Overall a powerful Club.Will be up there again
SYDNEY . . 115 Enjoyed their spoils.Could easily do it again
WEST COAST 110 Hope they not too depressed.Will again be the yardstick
GEELONG .. 105 So close last year.Will improve further
PORT POWER 98 Don't know what went wrong.Will win again
BULLDOGS . 97 Excitement package.Finals action coming up
FREMANTLE . 91 All interstaters have won.Surely must be getting close

BRISBANE . 89 No Finals again
ESSENDON . 88 Just missed again
KANGAROOS . 87 Will be playing Finals this year
MELBOURNE . 83 Proud Club.Shame they gonna miss out
RICHMOND . 83 Frustrating for everyone.Will miss again,JUST
HAWTHORN . 72 No Finals yet
COLLINGWOOD 66 2nd last.Ain't it GREAT?
CARLTON . . 61 Another Spoon?

Is that a typo next to the Kangaroos??? You have them rated 11th, but you say they'll be playing finals this year. Or have I misread the way you're doing things?

Interesting comments on NAB cup ... who do u like? and who do u think will be trying and who wont ??

IMO melbourne based clubs need the $$$ more so maybe thats a pointer

Hi Sportz!
You read right!
Remember last year you had a lowish rating for Brisbane?
And you turned out correct in your assessment?
Well my ratings are based on exactly the day after the 2005 Grand Final.
But my comments are after all the ins and outs of the drafting system.
Actually...7th and 8th position is on the line with the Kangaroos,Bulldogs and Fremantle having the opportunity.

Here is a 2nd thought on the Ratings including what I have learnt up to this stage.

ADELAIDE . 118 Overall a powerful Club.Will be up there again
SYDNEY . . 115 Enjoyed their spoils.Could easily do it again
ST.KILDA . 113 Blew their chance,twice.Downhill from here
WEST COAST 112 Hope they not too depressed.Will again be the yardstick
PORT POWER 108 Don't know what went wrong.Will win again
GEELONG .. 107 So close last year.Will improve further
BULLDOGS . 98 Excitement package.Finals action coming up
KANGAROOS . 93 Will be playing Finals this year

FREMANTLE . 92 All interstaters have won.Surely must be getting close
RICHMOND . 88 Frustrating for everyone.Will miss again,JUST
MELBOURNE . 86 Proud Club.Shame they gonna miss out
BRISBANE . 85 No Finals again
ESSENDON . 84 Just missed again
HAWTHORN . 72 No Finals yet
COLLINGWOOD 66 2nd last.Ain't it GREAT?
CARLTON . . 61 Another Spoon?

NAB CUP TIPS - Best to Worst

PORT POWER . Usually do well in this Event
GEELONG . Will give a good sight
BULLDOGS . Will give a great run for your money
WEST COAST . BIG concern about their away form
RICHMOND . Just when you thought they were going somewhere
KANGAROOS . Does anyone really care?
ST.KILDA . Don't need it and won't win it with that attitude
BRISBANE . Should win the 1st game

ESSENDON . Kevin Sheedy the Experimenter
MELBOURNE . Long way from the snowfields to Darwin
SYDNEY . A team that don't need it
ADELAIDE . Will lose to PORT
FREMANTLE . Against the Eagles?...No way
HAWTHORN . Those Brereton days are only a dream
COLLINGWOOD . At least they have lots of money
CARLTON . Is it really Jack's fault?

ADELAIDE. WILL LOSE TO PORT......

Dont think so champ!!!!
Ive got 500 on with a mate, cant believe he was stupid enough to give me even money. Port desperately need a couple of midfielders that get stuck in and win the ball. Downhill slide until then me thinks.

brisbane will do better this year as will collingwood,both in the lower part of the eight

I can understand why you hope Brisbane improves, but why would you wish improvement to Collingwood?

i dont wish improvement to them(cant stand them like most ppl),i just feel with a lot of their tall timber back this year they will improve,you know me ,i'm a totally unemotional supporter,much like SPORTZ,Brisbane will improve but will do nothing pre-season with a lot of players already out of essendon game

Collingwood will improve(i hope) if they can keep their stars injury free.
And improvement out of there young ones.they need to keep Tarant on the wing
because he can't kick to save himself, goals anyway.
Leave Rocca,Fraser and T.Cloke to kick the goals.

Leroy
GO PIES

YEAH. When I dared to suggest that they were on the slide and may even miss out on the 8??? ;)

There were only two teams that I got badly wrong last year and they were Port and Carlton. :o

Anyway, I'm going to wait a while before I sort anything out for this year. After what happened with Carlton, I'm going to treat the pre-season form very carefully!!!

These are the Scores I predict for the Nab 1st Round.
They are using my Ratings from last year and include an adjustment for improvement or decline due to team list changes.

Brisbane 85 Essendon 84 - 1
Bulldogs 98 Melbourne 86 - 13
Sydney 115 Kangaroos 93 - 22
Richmond 88 Hawthorn 72 - 14
Geelong 107 Carlton 61 - 46
Adelaide 118 Port Power 108 - 10
St.Kilda 113 Collingwood 66 - 47
West Coast 112 Fremantle 92 - 20

They need to be altered for the fact that it is the NAB CUP, 1st Round and
some teams desire to win...and others not as much.

Essendon - Sheedy mucks about too much minus 10
Sydney - Lack of desire to win NAB CUP minus 14
Geelong - Early favourites in markets plus 9
St.Kilda - I'm sure Thomas gonna test out some plans minus 14
West Coast - In it to win it plus 8

And then there is the ground advantage

Essendon minus 15
Melbourne minus 10
Richmond plus 6
Geelong plus 12
St.Kilda plus 14

Brisbane Essendon - 26
Bulldogs Melbourne - 23
Sydney Kangaroos - 8
Richmond Hawthorn - 20
Geelong Carlton - 67
Adelaide Port Power - 10
St.Kilda Collingwood - 47
West Coast Fremantle - 28

And of course these have not taken who's playing into consideration.
Another Factor I will consider is the Weather,Rain,Wind and Temperature.
Will be waiting till Match day before placing any bets.
I've decided this year to go straight out and with the points start.
No more taking minus points.Teams are out there to win,not necessarily by a big margin.

Yeah, I NEVER back a team that has to give up a start!!! I worked that out a few years ago after a couple of bad betting experiences.

I remember one time backing a team with a 20.5 handicap. I thought they would win by about 40 or 50 points, so 20.5 seemed reasonable to me. Well, after struggling for the first 3 quarters, they finally got on top in the final quarter and had a 19 point lead with a couple of minutes to go. At that point, they were obviously just relieved to have gotten out of jail, because they made absolutely no effort at all to score another goal. They just played around, basically passing it backwards and forwards to each other for the last 2 minutes, keeping it away from the opposition. Anyway, that tought me a lesson, and I've never backed a team that had to give away a points start again.

Margins and prices
 

Latest modifications to Margins

Melbourne - Daniher suggests not concentrating on NAB Cup minus 7
Sydney - Impressive acceptance speech for 2005 coach of the year plus 5
Brisbane - team getting older minus 8
Fremantle - 2 Fine assistant coaches from Essendon plus 4
Essendon - 2 fine assistant coaches leave minus 4
Geelong - A lot of good players missing minus 10
Carlton - Won last year,maybe they would like to repeat? - plus 12
Melbourne - Fielding a reserves team minus 12

Brisbane Essendon - 22 $1.35 $3.75
Bulldogs Melbourne - 42 $1.15 $7.90
Sydney Kangaroos - 13 $1.55 $2.80
Richmond Hawthorn - 20 $1.40 $3.50
Geelong Carlton - 45 $1.10 $8.90
Adelaide Port Power - 10 $1.65 $2.60
St.Kilda Collingwood - 47 $1.10 $9.70
West Coast Fremantle - 24 $1.35 $4.00

Once you come up with the prices,they need to be compared with current markets and discrepancies need to be analyzed.
Not knowing the available markets as yet,but I believe I may have West Coast way under.Still think I have them about right.Bulldogs look mighty short but I'm happy so far with that price.

And the fella who got the EVENS about Adelaide last week,WELL DONE.Forgot your name.
Just goes to show it really pays to have a look at thr form before just coming up with a gut feeling.

Mo,

You have a weird sense of humour, so I sometimes can't work out if you're being serious or not. It looks like you're just plucking numbers out of thin air and taking a wild guess.

Not at all Sportz
I'm demonstrating how I come up with my results.
Start with the base ratings a la Don Scott.
Allow for all the variables that could influence the game.
Bonusses and penalties.
It's all there in black and white.

No thin air or hot air there.
I do acknowledge my reasoning prowess made a mess of the Greyhounds,but I have been much more accurate in my Football Ratings.
How about all the Footy Followers have a quick comp.NAB CUP.
A point a win.Results declared After the Grand Final.

I'm in..ANYONE??

Start my ball rolling for the year with $60 on Brisbane at $1.95

This is an unusual one mo. How does this factor in?

NAB cup
 

Early market for tomorrow nights games are

Brisbane 1.93 essendon 1.86

wbd 1.31 melbourne 3.40

Give both brisbane and melbourne big chance.


If you have a look at draw, there are games in perth week 1 & 2,

IMO that would put the winner of this weeks west coast/ freo game in box seat for semi.... which could also be played in perth... reckon both teams wce @ 9 and freo @ 13 are good value for NAB cup.

This is it guys
 

There you go.
In all my excitement I ejaculated prematurely.Had I lasted a bit longer I would have seen what Brisbane have decided to put on the paddock.
Still reckon they will win,but would have preferred a shade of black price rather than the shade of red I took.The preferred bet would then have been a straight out Double with Brisbane and the Bulldogs for $40.My assessed double Price $1.90 - Available - $2.50

Latest modifications to Margins

Brisbane - Fielding very poor team minus 12
Melbourne - Worse field than I thought minus 4
Melbourne - Play well against the Bulldogs plus 8
West Coast - Cousin's midnight dash minus 3
West Coast - Some essential players missing minus 5
West Coast - Subiaco advantage plus 8
Fremantle - Don't do all that well pre-season minus 5
Richmond - because I hate Richmond minus 6
Port Power - Tredrea appointed Captain plus 6
Adelaide - Been spanking Port lately plus 8
Sydney - a player or two missing? OMG! minus 8
Sydney - dismal recent record pre-season minus 3
Collingwood - Expect them to perform for fans plus 6

Brisbane Essendon - 10 $1.63 $2.60
Bulldogs Melbourne - 38 $1.17 $6.75
Sydney Kangaroos - 2 $1.91 $2.10
Richmond Hawthorn - 14 $1.52 $2.90
Geelong Carlton - 45 $1.12 $8.90
Adelaide Port Power - 12 $1.57 $2.70
St.Kilda Collingwood - 41 $1.15 $7.60
West Coast Fremantle - 29 $1.26 $4.80

Excellent Question

What it means is he is a GREAT MAN.
And GREAT MEN achieve more than not great men.

Thank you for your question Mad.
And by the way Mad,You not the only one.

Well done DP.
Problem arises because they eventually got to get to VICTORIA!
I reckon Port Adelaide at the odds are OVERS.
If they don't go down 1st Round, then they can go all the way.

Mo here gone berserk early
 

I done this

$40 on Sydney to return $174
$70 on Geelong to return $112.70
$15 on Port to win the CUP returns $300

But I thought Sydney weren't even going to try, Mo??? Well, that was the impression I got. These pre-season games are a bit like a horse race where all of the runners are resuming or having their first start or something. You really need a bit of inside information on the teams and knowledge of how seriously they're all taking it.

Post Mortem
 

Jared Brennan,I LOVE YOU!
The Punting GODS smiled at me last night.
Running Tally Invested $100 Returned $117 POT 17%

Looked at my markets and realize that the bookies were much more accurate than what I was.Just can't afford to rely on luck anymore.Form study should have revealed that the Brisbane-Essendon Game was a no bet situation.And that Melbourne were in fact way over the odds.
So the opportunity to go back as to why my Markets were so wrong.

It seems what happened last year is what happened last year.If a team improved last year,then it did.It is not a sign that there is further improvement this year.In fact it is more likely that the team was playing on momentum and peaked out.And could very well slip back down a few rungs on the ladder.

Anyway,the mistakes I may have made could be...
Penalizing SHEEDY 10 points for being SHEEDY.Perhaps 6 points would have been better.
Penalizing Melbourne and not the Bulldogs for ground disadvantage 10 points.Maybe 6 points was better.
Melbourne minus 12 for fielding a reserves team?.They played well.So did Brisbane.No more huge penalties for young keen players.Not in the NAB cup anyway.

So with these things sorted,my other games become like this...
Hawthorn - Clarkson says he wants to win plus 3
Richmond - Wallace says he doesn't minus 3
Richmond - I don't believe Wallace plus 6

Richmond Hawthorn - 12 $1.57 $2.70
Geelong Carlton - 39 $1.16 $7.00
Adelaide Port Power - 12 $1.57 $2.70
St.Kilda Collingwood - 42 $1.14 $7.90
West Coast Fremantle - 29 $1.26 $4.80

Tried another Bet today
Double Geelong and Richmond $20 @ $2.90

Don't desire to win it as the main reason they are out there.
But I don't say they won't try.
Hard to win though with the squad they put on the field.Not the players fault.

Well, that's what I actually meant, Mo. Not that the players weren't going to try, but that the club wasn't going to try to put a really competitive team on the field. Mind you, Brisbane did almost the same sort of thing last night and still won!!!

Okay
When I saw a heap of Question marks, I thought you were making your own sense of humour about me.

Yes and Melbourne I believe also did similar.
I think it starts getting for real from now on

Okay.I think I got it now!
You come up with what the team is capable of.
Then impose penalties.Substantial penalties.
But very minor bonuses,if any.
A team is only as good as it is.You can't do better than your best.But you can do worse.

WATCH OUT BOOKIES!.I know where you live.
My name is MO,and I'm coming to get YOU!

Latest amendments to the remaining games with the benefits of hindsight.

Adelaide Port Power - 15 $1.50 $3.00
St.Kilda Collingwood - 45 $1.12 $8.90
West Coast Fremantle - 20 $1.40 $3.50

Running Tally Invested $205 Returned $229.7 POT 12%

2 games for consideration today.
St.Kilda available @ $1.47 and Eagles @ $1.90
If I back them both,and one of them goes down,the result would be a loss to the BANK.
Makes sense to just take a double.
Being up $25,I make it the bet at about $2.80.

Invested $230 Returned $230

See you next week!

Just letting you all know that Geelong has a shocking away record.
I originally tipped them by 15 points.
Now I believe they will go down.
As will collingwood and Hawthorn.
And am thinking the trip south will bring the Lions down as well.