Unitab Quinellas
 

I have been looking at the Unitab ratings for quinella betting. I used 50 to 70% of the field in box quinellas. I have applied this rule to only those horses with a rating of 90 points-plus in fields of 9 to 12 starters. If there are 10 starters then there must be a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 7 runners that have 90 points or more. If only 4 (40%) runners have 90 points-plus then it is a no-race, the same if 8 runners have 90 points-plus. Hopefully this identifies races that don't have short-priced faves or races that are too "open".

The results since last Saturday (Unitab divvies) are:
22 quinellas from 28 races.
Outlay of $435 for a return of $578 = by my calcs this is a POT of 32.8%.
I have ignored the cents in the divvies, so if a quinella paid $10.90 I have recorded it as $10. With 22 successful quinellas it would not be unreasonable to expect an extra $10 on top of the $578. I have not looked at trifectas but would not be surprised if thet haven't done too badly.

If anyone's interested, today's races are:
Hawkesbury R6 nos.2, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12
Hawkesbury R7 nos. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10
Bendigo R6 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9
Ipswich R1 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 10
Ipswich r6 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Ipswich R8 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 12

Quinella outlay of $111
Trifecta outlay of $1,902

From the six races yesterday we had three quinellas. The outlay was $111 but the return was $79. The trifecta outlay was $1,092 and the return was $2,820. As a matter of interest, there were five First Four races, of which we were successful in two of them - for a total outlay of $4,440 the return was approx $16,000. I'll also now show First Fours.

Two races today:
Albury R4 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 6,
Sale R 2 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10

Quinella outlay of $25
Trifecta outlay of $180.
First Four outlay of $480

Yesterday:
The quinella outlay was $25 for a return of $18.
The trifecta outlay was $180 for a return of $215
The First Four outlay was $480 for a return of $840.

Seven races today:
Rosehill R6 nos. 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11
Moonee Valley R1 nos. 1, 2, 3,4, 5
Moonee Valley R4 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Dombeen R5 nos. 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 11
Newcastle R6 nos. 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8
Newcastle R8 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12
Werribee R3 nos. 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12

Quinella outlay of $137
Trifecta outlay of $1,242
First Four outlay of $5,160

Yesterday:
The quinella outlay was $127 for a return of $164
The trifecta outlay was $1,242 for a return of $1,312
The F.F. oytlay was $5,160 for a return of $545. Still showing a huge profit.

Seven races today:
Wellington R4 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11
Wellington R5 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10
Wellington R8 nos. 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10
Cranbourne R2 nos. 1, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10
Cranbourne R10 nos. 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
Rocky R4 nos. 1, 2, 4, 7, 9, 11 - not a First Four race.
Rocky R6 nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 10
Quinella outlay of $125
Trifecta outlay of $1,176
First Four outlay of $4,200

Michaelg

Seems to be kicking along nicely..... interesting take on things ! ;)

Yes, it's going along quite well, and after 22 races all three forms of betting are in front.

Yesterday:
Quinella outlay of $125 for a return of $192
Trifecta outlay of $1176 for a return of $630
First Four outlay of $4,200 for a return of $2,765.

Four races today:
Wellington R3 nos. 1, 2, 5, 7, 11
Grafton R2 nos. 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Tatura R7 nos. 2, 3, 5, 8, 9
Tatura R8 nos. 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11
Quinella outlay of $56
Trifecta outlay of $450
First Four outlay of $1,440

Even though we had every quinella and trifecta yesterday we still lost, all the faves got up.

Quinella outlay of $56, return of $23
Trifecta outlay of $450, return of $174
First Four outlay of $1,340, return of $159

Four races today:
Randwick R2 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 6, 10
Taree R7 nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
W'bool R6 nos. 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 11
W'bool R7 nos. 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 12

Quinella outlay of $85
Trifecta outlay of $876
First Four outlay of $3,720.

Yesterday due to a late scratching the total outlay reduced.

Quinella outlay $79, return of $61
Trifecta outlay $786, return of $787
First Four outlay $3,360, return of $356. All it takes is one good divvy...

Three races today:
Kembla R8 nos.1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 17
Ipswich R4 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Murray Bridge R4 nos. 1, 4, 5, 6, 8

Quinella outlay of $40
Trifecta outlay of $300
First Four outlay of $360. There is only one F.F. race - Kembla R8.

Aaaarrrrrr!! the quinella she be a tough mistress.
The trifecta she be an even tougher one.
First four, well unless ye be in to S&M I'd be givin' her a miss.

Very true, K.V. But one never knows...

I made a mistake yesterday with the results, At Taree race 7 I thought that no.1 which was not a selection had run second, but in fact it was unplaced. We had all three divvies, but they did not pay much. After 6 days (30 races) we have struck 22 quinellas for a POT of 6%. The trifectas have fared better having had 18 of them for a POT of 19%. First Fours is showing a 7%POT thanks to one very large divvy. Hopefully today will improve the results.

Michael, How would the quinellas go if you just stood out the top 3 with the rest, which would cut down the outlay - seven runners for instance would cost $15 instead of $21; six runners would cost $12 instead of $15; five runners would cost $9 instead of $10.

Just some thoughts that may lift the POT.

Hi, La Mer. I'll start recording them from tomorrow together with stand-out trifectas. With 7 selections a box trifecta costs $210 but your stand-out method costs only $90 (3 X6 X5) which is a huge reduction.

As listed earlier today there were three races. Boxing the selections snared all the quinellas and trifectas. But your method also was successful with the three races. By my calcs your quinella outlay would have been $33 for a return of $52 whilst the boxed outlay was $40. And your trifecta outlay would have been $156 for a return of $256, whilst the boxed outlay was $300.

Three races today:

Cranbourne R3 nos. 4, 6, 10, 13/ 7, 9, 14, 15. There were two selections for equal-third with the Unitab ratings.
Toowoomba R5 nos. 2, 5, 7/ 4, 9, 10, 12
Geraldton R5 nos. 1, 3, 4, 8/ 5, 6, 7, 9

Quinella stand-out outlay $59
Quinella box outlay $78
Trifecta stand-out outlay $426
Trifecta box outlay $882

A bad day yesterday. The only profit was stand-out trifectas in which the outlay was $426 for a return of $596.

Two races today:
Quirindi R5 nos. 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 1, 2, 9
Eagle Farm R8 nos. 3, 5, 6, 8/ 4, 7

Quinella stand-out outlay of $39
Box quinellas $43
Trifecta stand-out outlay $330
Box trifectas $546