G'day everyone
 

Hello everyone,

I've been perusing this forum for a while now and think it's great. The ideas presented here are quite interesting and a good read.

I'm interested in the statistical side of punting and was wondering if anyone here could direct me to, or provide me with some stats.

Just to save me going through results on the TAB site and copying them to excel. Yes I know I'm lazy!

Basically what I'm after is:
- horse number # that most frequently wins (mode)
- radioTAB tip that wins the most frequently (eg. no.1, no.2 or no.3 selection)
- and the above for greyhounds

Percentages as well would be a bonus!

Any help would be greatly appreciated for my experiments!

Cheers, Mick73

Horse TAB No.1 wins approx 20%
Radio TABQ 1st-20% 2nd-15% 3rd-10%
Dogs Box 1+8 approx 17% each

Cheers.

Hi Mick,
Welcome aboard. Here's the most important stat. to keep a note of in your wallet and at the very forefront of all other stats you pick up [or purchase]: .......95% of punters lose.

Cheers,
Crash

MICK 73.
 

As your interested in the statistical side of punting my experience has been that Malcolm Knowles of inracing is invaluable here.

Alternatively you could purchase a reasonably priced data base such as "RACE CENSUS"( advertised on this site )and run as many bits of "what Ifs"through that.Its a hell of a lot of fun and explodes many of the punting myths that plague the industry.

Cheers.
darky.

A search show nothing on "race census" do you have a link darky?
Thanks

downbylaw
 

Look under 'WANT A WINNING BETTING SYSTEM"- under poster STICKY.

Cheers.
darky.

Mick 73, sorry for digressing, but that stat from Bhagwan has me intrigued, i.e. No 1 has 20% Strike Rate, but surely the ave. no of runners is far more than 5??? i.e. 1 out of 5??

What about no 1s' in handicaps only?

Hi party! I have 103138 raceresults in my database and out of this, tab no. 1 only won 16038 times. That is just under 16%.
Tab no. 2, 13762
Tab no. 3, 12060
Tab no. 4, 10733
Cheers

Marcus25, thanks for that, nearer 1 in 8 is that handicaps only? even so sounds like the basis to start something off, i.e. apply filters etc. considering that the handicapper has already rated it on top!

Party, if I look only on handicap races then the outcome is:
Races 59815
No1 wins: 10261
No2 wins: 8644
No3 wins: 7408
No4 wins: 6463
Slight improvement for no1
Good luck

No1 wins: 10261
No2 wins: 8644
No3 wins: 7408
No4 wins: 6463

Bit hard to work out average price for the above[?], but I bet they all show a small loss.

What about No. 1 when it's a favorite [only] and ridden by D. Beadman in Syd. metro:-)?

Perhaps the 20% strike rate was in reference to races in which number 1 was not scratched? In that sample of 103,000 where #1 won 16% of them, perhaps the remaining 4% were races from which it was scratched?

Duritz!
I did a quick query only, what I was looking at were the TAB results only. Now I added the scratchings as well.
All races including non handicap races!

If the Tab No1 was scratched then
Races 63017 wins 10785

If the Tab No2 was scratched then
Races 63396 wins 9405

If the Tab No3 was scratched then
Races 63365 wins 8138

If the Tab No1 was scratched then
Races 63409 wins 7345

The trend is clear No.1 wins more often the rest.
I did not check the ave. divi, I may do it later.

SORRY folks "WAS" should read "WAS NOT" scratched, I hope you have more sense than I do!
Also Tab No.4 it is, following Tab No.3 not No.1
good luck with your projects!

Thankyou Marcus, my pontifications have been recindered, and my astletations much alleviated.

Duritz, sounds like were on the same medication !

Marcus25, great stuff this, it's amazing to think that 1 race in 3 is won by no 1 or 2.

Just as a matter of interest can your box of tricks tell what was the AVERAGE no of runners in each race over that test?

System as I see it so far
Handicaps only.
bet no 1 & 2
Providing that
(a) was within 3.5 lengths of the winner last start
(b) racing within 21 days OR 1st up over 1200m OR less)
(c) is quoted 1st, 2nd or 3rd Fav in the pre-post market)

Ditto!

Can do all of that party, except (c), I am afraid you would have to look at that info yourself from race to race on the day, unless you know someone who kept records of it, and is willing to share it with us. Even so, it would depend which prepost market you are looking at.
If instead, the starting price would be OK, I do have that.
As to 1 race in three won by the 1 & 2 I can only call them as I see them. I suppose I could print out the results or turn them into a spreadsheet (not really good at that) for other people to check the accuracy.
Just for interest
All races
No1 wins 16043
No2 wins 13774
No3 wins 12070
No4 wins 10740
No5 wins 9514
No6 wins 8706
No7 wins 7025
No8 wins 6049
No9 wins 5125
No10 wins 4099
Does not take scratching or field sizes into account.

Cheers

And the word "astletation", Crash - I made that word up. It doesn't really exist.

Duritz, Duritz, tsk, tsk, tsk.
Now you tell us, after we spent all this time looking it up?
Shame! Shame!

Mick73, hope you don't mind us digressing from your theme mate? but it does seem like a good idea.

Marcus25, re Pre-post market, yes has always proved to be a problem as of course different publications have differing markets. I always use WA TAB -FORM. Though I'm told that the Racing Radio pre-post prices have proven to be the most accurate (in terms of closest to actual SP)

But for the purpose of what we were discussing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd favs as at SP would suffice.

OK Party, I will get onto it soon, couple of days most.
Had plenty of time last few weeks but back at work now.
Cheers

Dictionary of science and Technology 1926 p56.
Astletation - The ability of some species of insecta to regrow the lower regions of the body when losing the rear two legs and regions in between.
Modern variation by forum members who've just driven to Sydney and back and been booked for speeding at least once possibly twice:
Ars-l-tation - clandestine showing of the nether regions as a salutaion to a departing police officer who's just booked you.

KV

The race where Tab No.1 gets up the most is Race 1. & it is usually short as..

It gets up more often in the first 4 races rather than the last 4 races for some reason.
The divs are usually pretty ordinary when they do win indicating that it is usually over bet.

lol.

I'm not going to check up on that KV, I'm going to assume what you said is legit (perhaps to my embarassment!).

I do find it very funny that I tried to invent a word, and it already existed. What hope have I of inventing the winning sys, if I can't even invent a blooody word!!

'Astletation' A common word well known to driving instructors. Men accelerate but many women often astlerlate when learning to drive. An unnerving experience for new driving instructors.

Sorry, mate. keep looking for the system, I was going to put that any subsequent regrowth was called re-arsoletation but thought that might make it too obvious.
KV

LOL - OK, well that's OK, now I do feel much more winchisised.