Eagle Farm Saturday
 

Had some free time today and looked long and hard at tomorrows races in Brissie...feeling super confident with some standouts....a couple of rating specials...these have been going very well..(Umatrick, Strawbery Spy and Any suggestion were the 3 rating specials last week and they did the job)

Race 1,
Hard race this..when rating this race i was innitially surprised to see superfreak rate so high...Cahill and the trainer always rate high with me but i rate the form around this horse down south superior to the class these horses have been racing in...Cant see a natural leader in the race. probably Frottage who could run a very cheeky race ..i've always been a fan of Red Pill but i worry about the tempo ..could be a sit and sprint which wont suit him or Dream Gal.....id be all over Red Pill but i worry about the speed in this race,,,Super Freak for me e/w in a race where there doesnt seem to be a standout.

Race 2,
A race in 2 ...Naval Seal and Star Of Canada ....The Star can fly ...wont be a walk in the park but this horse can run the time to win this and you have to like Mason on these frontrunners...i dont rate anything else in this race
to come close to him...no value at all ...maybe an exacta..

Race 3,
Still not keen on these 2yo races,,,Ascendant took a while to work out what to do last time but did finish off very nicely..Amarnthine stable mate to Heartbreakpass was scratched last week for this...or maybe Heinrich didnt want to take on the better stablemate ?? hmmm...Winaura has the shocker of an alley but has good gate speed..doesnt seem to many worlbeaters in this lot and Winaura has performed against better than this and rates consistently....Jennifer anne impressed last start and Pincess Norma has some ability.....you see why im not not keen on the race....maybe a multi tri..1,2,3,/4,5,7,8 ?? or just go to the bar..

Race 4,
Strawbery Malt ...just to classy for these...one of the best of the day,,,lucky to get $3 i'd reckon as there will be a heap of support for her...loves the track, distance, firstup, the 2kg claim,,, heaps of ticks,...Single Rose never runs a bad race and will again feature and dont forget about Epsom Races who wasnt hopeless last start when there was a stack of support for him..

Race 5,
Mikans run against Scandal Park was huge up north ...drops weight and gets a better alley aswell this time...there doesnt seem to much else in the race that rates consistant enough...Cahill the clincher in a ordianry race....

Race 6,
High Academy wins this !! very confident ....ran a huge race last start ..gets to a better distance,,, the track suits and so should the likely tempo.....the only danger is Bohemian Dancer who was super last start and can race handy or back in the field depending on the tempo....Picablu and Maizy May to fill the other places...

Race 7,
Very interested to see how Picaday goes ,,,i had high hopes for this horse a couple of years ago (straddie)...willing to watch first up tomorrow...The top 2 rate high....Messian if you forget last start is in great form and Consular has to much class not to be in the finish...both are suited by the likey tempo...Star of Asia the other swooper who will like the speed in this race......The poor first up record of Consular leans me towards Messian and Star of Asia ...great race ..

Race 8,
Cognisant was super strong last start......i thought Shilo was very impressive in a harder race..i know the long straight makes him a sitting duck but he looks stronger than this field...i thought he was well weighted in this class..
the swooper i'd be worried about is Mr Sportsman who has a good sprint and should be suited on this track and Cognisant with natural improvement will be there close up...these look the 3...Shilo to good when it counts..

Best , Strawbery Malt, High Academy (specials) ,,,,Messian , Shilo
Best e/w, Superfreak , Winaura

Alot of shorties ...Messian at 8s' in the paper but i wont be holding my breath for those odds,,..maybe Shilo if they risk him because of the barrier..

Good luck all :)

other state selections
Sydney
Mentality, Headturner , Snitzel , Dizzelle, Newtons Rings
Melbourne
Infinite Grace, Classiconi, Activation
Gold Coast
Sweet ransom, I Dared
Adelaide
Cool Response
Newcastle
Irish loup, Monte Warrior
Coffs Harbour
Moccabraun

Worried alittle about the rain about in Sydney and i think Snitzel and Headturner might be unders....confident everywhere else..

Good Luck :)

u following bartholomew's lead in sydney are you mav? :P

Hi Classiconi...whos Bartholomew ?? hope he doesnt kill my odds :)
you mean cummings ?? i dont get it ??

but i am expecting a good day for Hawksy..and 3.50 about Beadman isnt looking to bad either...

ps...i do like your namesake in melbourne..even with the grandstand on him.

Hey Mav,

I had a bit of time today, so i did some form work. Hopefully it pays off, cauz i'll be down at the track tomorrow - first time in a few weeks. Can't wait. We like a few of the same too, which is encouraging.

Race 1 - Keen on Frottage here. Like Mav said, not a lot of speed, and this horse has run some ratings which see him competitive here. The claim is great. After the experience at the journey last time, i think he can go close. Red Pill is a good horse, but will be back and will have to sprint hard late to get them here. Swap can improve at odds too, improved 3rd up last time in, so isn't without a show here.

Race 2 - Star Of Canada, if right, is too good for these. The wide alley is a concern, but if Mason gets him across, i think he's too quick for them. Naval Seal is a length or so off Star on best run, but Naval has the fitness edge. Nice quinella (though it'll probably pay money back :)). Bitabiff is a nice horse, might be looking for longer though. Place chance.

Race 3 - Too hard. Costa Complete, Kirralee Queen and Princess Norma. That's all i've got :).

Race 4 - Strawberry Malt is far too good for them. If given an OK run in front, and if she returns to any of her recent figures, they don't have much hope of getting her, in my view. You won't get a price, though. Shame Single Rose is out, cauz she is a nice filly. Maybe Two Fingers and Cielo Gold for the placings, but the toppy has the class edge. I just hope she's wound up - the winter carnival beckons.

Race 5 - Like 2 here, Mikan and House of Woodwind. House of Woodwind will be better odds, so i'll stick with him. Got a powerhouse finish when he's given the chance to unleash it. I'm just hoping for an OK speed. Mikan, as Mav said, has been racing well around the place and is a deserved favourite. Party Express for 3rd, who can run a good race fresh.

Race 6 - High Academy is the class, and i think can win. 1800m at EF suits and the alley is a massive plus. There should be enough speed and i think he just finishes over the top of them. Celtic Trial finally gets firm going and a bit of ground, so can improve here. The alley is terrible though. Bohemian Dancer was a super run last time and if he reproduces that run, will be in the finish.

Race 7 - Good race. I like Diamondsondinside. There is a huge amount of speed here, and Diamonds will sit off them and unleash his finish at the death. I just hope Holder can get him to the outside. Grandway Shogun can unleash a finish too, i can never seem to pick him on the right day though. Messiaen is as honest as they come, but i just doubt him in this race. There is a lot of speed and the 10 alley is not helpful. His last run should be forgotten though, on that woeful track at Toowoomba.

Race 8 - Finish here on Mr Sportsman. Is ready for a shot at city class after some good wins at the provs. Good quality trainer and Bowditch should be able to secure a nice run. Was on Cognisant last time, didn't get much help from the jock (who had him 3 wide) but a win is a win. Might bounce after that run, but has got obvious talent and shouldn't be completely discounted. Shilo has ability, but i'm not taken with Pannell, especially from wide alleys.

Best tomorrow would be Frottage, Strawberry Malt, Diamondsondinside and House of Woodwind eachway.

Good luck all,

Sven

Sean Bartholomew, Australia's biggest punter, hes raving about mentality and headturner, i just don't know how much I trust what the man has to say. I don't think De Beers can win the, thats all I really have to offer, and with miss finland out in the sires, that race is also fair game.


Oi you know I had never even heard of such a horse when I picked this name lol

I am too tired to offer my selections this week, i'll stick with your tips and see how we go !
Good luck

Mentality was very impressive last start..just flew home...had that extra week off which helps imo...
also liked Headturners last run..the extra distance suits.. and should be peaking tomorrow..
Beadman always kills a price though...


Hi Sven ..good to see your thoughts...check out Sweet Ranson at the Coast especially if you like Mr Sportsman....because Sweet Ransom should have beaten him last start with any luck in running....not sure why Bailey is running her down there whens theres probably a few races up here that she would be competitive in....
I'm not sure on Pannell either..but he doesnt have to do much on Shilo ..sit outside the leader and kick away from them early in the straight and hang on...even he should be able to do that,,..wonder how hes going with his weight probs..

$13.5k to win $190,000 in the Slipper [lost] doesn't make him Aust. biggest punter. Not by a long shot. I hope no one followed him last week as he thought [before the race] Miss Finland was a dud to forget:-)
Who advertises their big bets every week?

Anyone know how the weather is shaping up in Brisbane. Rain? Wind? Nice day?

Hey Crash, sean bartholomew bets more in one day than every member of this forum collectively would bet in a year, on a daily basis, .......he has so much influence on the public .......e.g. he sent a call out that he wanted $5.00 about Headturner in the derby, no bookie gave it to him except Michael Eskander, but what is to stop him from plunging on the horse he really expects to win 30 seconds out from the jump, for the price he wants? Don't underestimate him

Hi mate,
I don't think what you have said above is saying much though :-)

More seriously, bartholomew sprouts about odds being poor for such and such a horse and then every mug punter who just wants an any price winner is all over it. What bothers me, he is usually sprouting about a horse [if he is any good as a punter and not just a rich mug punter] that nobody with serious money wants anyway. Headturner in a leaderless race? He'll be lucky to place. Why isn't he sprouting on about Primus's odds [the likely winner]?

Hi Crash..i'm predicting a genuine speed in the Derby...i thought GoldTown and Jujulio would lead and push them along..theres alot of horses in this race that are suspect at the distance...and its probably in their best interest and only interest to make it a staying test and try and pinch it as they wont be able to sprint with the likes of Spinney,Headturner ,Dream Ballad ect...Primus who should be on the pace anyway will be the one grinding it out and is a good chance considering the tempo wont worry him either way...i only worry about him the last 200m or so.....

As for Sean ...id think it smart to secure your odds about Headturner and then spruik the hell out of it and hopefully get better odds about Primus and then have them both......niave to think he has any more influence over prices than the local paper tipster imo..
but good luck to him :)

ps...weather is good in Brissie ...i'm not there but i hear its the usual beautiful weather we are usually accustomed to :) good track ...

Got some mail about Consular in Brissie...aparently flying in track work,,the horse thinks hes a 3yo.....have him on top in you trifectas,,,,the horse is classy..

He ain't a mug, he fluked his way into punting, in the beginning scored two superfectas in 3 weeks, thats where he made big bucks, and he readily admits that he fluked those wins.

But the fact remains that he has some big wins on the records if you ask the bookies, e.g. backed lonhro every start for 100,000 when he went on that winning streak, and even more remarkably, backed against him in his final race and got onto grand armee instead at $10.00.

I think we both have a common view on this issue, maybe I just can't express it very well through this forum. Just don't read into anything he says publicly.

Hey Mav,

When it all comes down to cut and dried for the life of me I don't understand anyone betting serious money on these Black Tie races [I don't]. If anything looks good the odds are lousy [can get them in a a country C2] and the great odds on everything else is fine but which one do you back ? What usually happens is something no one expected gets up [Roman Arch last week]
and the bookies are having one big party.

Now that it looks like damp going did anyone see Sepia's run in the 2nd. last week [with bruised front feet]. From last to 2nd in an eye-blink from the 100m. Hasn't got those shoes on today so feet must be fine. The horse will sizzle home on soft ground and might pinch it from all of them. That's my play-money bet for the Derby anyway.

Classiconi,
Obviously your have reverence for the punter, which is fine by me but why can't the guy pull his head in a bit about the size of his bets [you know what the say about those sort of guys [big upstairs but small dow.....] ?

Hey Maverick,


Thanks for the tip on messian, i was all over him! 2 first fours and a big winner to finish off the day

I assume Mav got the trifecta and first4 race 7 in Brisbane.

Damn right sportz he woulda been all over it, good divvie too he's prolly given every1 a round of drinks, unless he had consular listed as the winner, came very very close to pinching it from messian, good mail there.

tips for sunshine coast tomorrow
 

Hi Mav,

Not the smartest ride today on High Academy.

Any good tips for tomorrow at the Sunshine Coast?

Nearly the goods on consular

cheers
Jerry

I was happy to see Picaday come back today with a tremendous run after a 2 year layoff you would think with natural improvement this horse could be a threat in some of the good races coming up in the carnival.

Summary
 

Brissie
Race 1.
Frottage led but just didnt stop...Heaps of support for my tip Super freak who just didnt stay with that tempo...
loss
Race 2.
The Star just couldnt get across..the master outrid the young apprentice ..
nice exacta at 4.20..
little win
Race 3.
Easy tri to get....should have had it a few times but hindsights a wonderfull thing.. Princees Norma was very good i thought...
Race 4.
Huge run by the Strawbery...will be winning next time out..to short for me
Race 5.
Backed Mikan ..who had his chance...dissapointing ..loss
Race 6.
High Academy just wasnt suited all cluttered up on the inside..needs room and i wasnt confident half way around.....follow him though... loss
RAce 7.
Woohooo...just the perfect race..everything seemed to pan out just like i hoped...even the hopefull good run into 3rd or 4th from Picaday who was fantastic......incedible result..i knew i had it 100m out .because i even had a few with Consular on top....
big win
Race 8
Shilo went to plan untill the straight where he just didnt let down at all..
Mr sportsman did very well..that dam Bambu thing killed my exotics..

In sumary a great day in brissie..all thanks to Messian....great to be ahead in Brissie especially after the last 2 weeks..

horses to follow Strawbery Spy, Frottage, Princess Norma, High Academy, Picaday, Consular


Other States
Sydney
Backed Mentality, Headturner, Dizzy, Newtons rings
Got the derby ..it all went to plan ...very nice result ..
(profit)
Melbourne
Backed Classiconi, Activation
Classiconi very very brave...activation dissapointing
(Loss)
adelaide
Backed Cool Response
Very nice result...never a doubt..twice in a row
(Profit)
Gold Coast
Backed I Dared
did nothing
(loss)
Coffs
Backed Moccabraun
dissapointing
(loss)
Newcastle
Backed irish loup
Nice tuff win..very good trifecta aswell
(Nice Profit)

A great day...That Sean Bartholomew bloke will asking me for advice soon ;)
my shout again at the bar boys..all though i think i've drunk enough for the lot of us..
Big day Monday...heaps of work to do..havent even looked at tomorrow..will have to be a standout for me to be interested..
hope you guys had a good one..
(well done Raw with excites...fantastic win)

Hi Crash...it really doesnt bother me what races i'm betting in..i'll bet in maidens , 2yo (rarely) and country picnic races..it all just depends on if i've got a clear rater on top....my ratings are heavily reliant on video study and heavy form study ,,including sectionals ect..
I know of a few punters who never bet the big races but i'm alittle different in i'm right into the exotics ..and these big races with the sizable fields and pools always throw up value (Slipper last week) Derby this week,,,,,

What i find also that in these big races theres always the Media tip (Casino Prince in the Slipper , Primus in the Derby, Churchhill downs in the Sire) the public always jump all over them ..so theres usually value in your selection if it differs from the hype..
(I wonder what Headturner would have paid if Beadman wasnt riding him ?)
...

Hey Jerry..
I'll be looking at Tycoon Rose at the Sunny coast who should be some value...also Dellamby in the last in a very open race..
a couple of bookers
Solitas at Stawell
La Folie at Cowra

nice quiet one for a Sunday...still working on Monday :)

Thanks Mav