In our opinion betting with bookmakers at least on Melbourne and Sydney racing will consistently give better returns on horses well in the market, even if top fluctuation is not necessarily obtained, compared to tote betting.

Here is a letter we received and replied to. We are also interested in your views and experiences about tote betting compared to betting with the bookies.

"Dear Sir,
I was somewhat surprised to read your "proof" that betting with bookies is better than betting with the tote.

The whole "proof" relied upon the punter getting "top fluctuation"

Could you please advise how this is done or even better put me in touch with a bookie who will give same.

I am already planning how I will spend my new found wealth

Tote returns have consistently exceeded SP for as long as I can remember."

I have read and heard that Bookies give better returns than the tote. In my experience which is limited to the tote only so long as you look for value when you bet it should put you ahead of the rest who are betting on the tote. Last saturday
Rosehill Race 3
My top selection SIZE HER UP i wanted $7.00 on the WA TAB could only get $3.80 so no bet.
RACE 4
Top selection TALISTA BELLE wanted $6.00 i got $12.40 a Nice Bet
RACE 6
Top selection LONHRO wanted $2.50 only got $1.60 so no bet
CAULFIELD Race 7
Top selection CRIMSOM GEM wanted $6.50 I got $6.50 I actually didn"t bet on this one as I prefer to well overs.

Crimson Gem started at $7.00 with the bookies, firming a touch from $7.50.

Does size of the field make a difference, I have read that the tote can pay better in races with large fields.

For MY betting (weekday races, generally selections paying from $8 to $20) I have found that the TAB almost always pays higher than bookies. For example my two winners today were:

BR5 - 10 Singin N Dancin - paid $13.30 on Tabcorp, SP was $7.00
SR7 - 11 Padlock - $17.50 on NSWTAB, SP was $13.00

I don't have TF prices for these (is there a website that has this info???) but I doubt they were much higher than the SP so in both cases I was MUCH better off with the TAB (with the SP prices I would not have been betting).

It seems to me that bookies are generally better for short priced horses (say $5 and under), tote is generally better for longer priced horses ($8 and up) and about equal between these prices. Also bookies are probably more competitive for the Saturday metro meetings whilst for midweek racing they seem to bet a higher percentage so that moves the balance towards the tote on those races.

Other advantage of the TAB is that I can see the prices on-line and place bets without having to make telephone calls - it will be good if the bookies website gets going so that you can compare bookies to TAB and then place the bet with the one offering best price. (Of course you can do that at the moment with IAS but they dont offer each-way and their prices are not always competitive with what other bookies are offering).

It often can, but not necessarily with the most favoured tote horses.
You can see how SuperTab compares with top fluctuation and starting price betting on horses starting at $5.50 or shorter in the bookies ring by clicking Bookmakers are best link in menu.
There are many tables of results.

So i would have got 50c more going with the bookies, not much difference

Top fluctuation means the price was commonly available in the betting ring. In this case it could have been a dollar more, not really that much for a small bet but it adds up.
On a $100 bet it is an extra $100.
It's best to check the tables on the site
at http://www.propun.com.au/bookmakers...ling_index.html
to see some of the really big differences that can occur.

[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2002-08-07 21:58 ]

Lescoach,

The difference between $5 and $5.50 is huge when the aim of the game is to gain a long term advantage over a) bookmakers or b) the TAB. Any advantage is going to be marginal so an extra 10% makes a big difference long term.

Fact 1: No matter which way you look at it, the TAB cannot and will not lose on any race, EVER. Bookies on the other hand, can and do lose on individual races. You can therefore gain an edge over bookmakers.

Fact 2: There is no such thing as overs or unders on the TAB because you're never guaranteed the price you see at the time you place your bet. If you see $6 about a horse in the betting ring and you rate that a fair price you can lock it in with a bookmaker. Thousands of tote punters see the same horse at $6.60 and rush to get on the "overs". The horse starts at $5.60 on the TAB because the money has to be shared equally among punters but only after the TAB has taken it's unequal share.

Contrarian punters like Becareful are the only ones who have a realistic chance of winning long term on the TAB because they don't follow the crowd and are trying to cash in on the value created by herd mentality.

becareful,
International AllSports website now has the top flucs for winners a few minutes after correct weight. The address is http://www.betthe.net then go to racing and pick the race you are interested in.

[ This Message was edited by: Hammers on 2002-08-08 09:08 ]

I may be in a 'grass is always greener on the other side' situation but I like the sound of bookies. The fact that I could lock in a bet at odds sounds fantastic to me. There are things you can do with that you simply can't do here (North America).

Being a math nut I have a few papers on mathematical strategies at the track but, wouldn't you know it, they all apply to Australia.

On the other hand, your race tracks sound more 'serious'. As I understand it, the minimum bet through bookies is in the hundreds. It seems to me this would generate less of the social, almost family-oriented atmosphere you see at tracks here. Having not actually been at an Australian racetrack I haven't a clue so take that with a grain of salt.

If there's one thing I do enjoy about y'all (that's more American than it is Canadian) it's the intelligent, social atmosphere of this forum. Thanks, all, from Canada for your insights, information and good humour, eh (now THAT'S Canadian)!

-Duck

Hammers - someone from this forum (sorry, can't remember who) told me that the TF prices quoted by IAS are there own TF prices and not the official bookmaker ring TF prices that the track bookies pay on. Also they don't seem to "add-up" - eg. they quote an opening price of $7.50, Fluct1 of $7.00 and SP of $7.00 but then give TF of $7.00 - surely it should be $7.50?

TheDuck - Gudday (now that's Australian!) The minimum bet in the hundreds only applies to telephone bets placed with the bookies from off-track (as I understand it this was put in place to protect the TAB's who didn't want the bookies "stealing" their telephone betting market) - however the rules are different from state to state and are being phased out - eg. Minimum telephone bet with Victorian bookies is now $50 for major meetings and no minimum for country meetings. As far as I know there are no fixed minimums for on-track betting.

becareful,
Until recently the only prices on the All Sports website were Read's own prices and yes they were highly inaccurate - only what they were betting and not the real ring action.
They still post these prices but in addition they now have the fair dinkum Top Flucs for winners about 5 minutes after weight is declared. I have checked the prices and they are spot on.
It is available for all city meetings and most provincial meetings.

Last night Neil posted part of a letter I wrote to him with regard to "top fluctuation" betting.

To start the debate rolling I would like to nominate in advance Races 5,6,and 7 at Morphettville on Saturday 10/8/02. I will analyse the top fluctuations for these races from data published in the Sunday Mail and publish the results on this site with my comments.

I do accept that the analysis of three races is not sufficient to draw any firm conclusions' but it's a start.

I would suggest in advance of the results that no bookmaker would ever be able to offer on a long term basis unconditional top fluctuation betting...and make a profit!