Doomben Saturday Races
 

Hi Guys..lets hope we all do better this week. Some good betting races and there will be alot of value in trifectas ect..

Race 1.
San Fransisco looks the one to beat is in great form and should again be too good ..I cant see any value in him though as i think you'll be lucky to get near $4 ..But whos going to beat him ? Octanee isnt hopeless and runs well fresh but bar plates on?,,Ceffyl is in good form but has a bit of weight ,,Gator isnt the most reliable horse around but he did look good last start in a way stronger race than this and will be fitter,,,Maybe Sircolo who never runs a bad race and wont know himself with that weight he does have a problem with pulling but Zac's good with horses like this....
I have San Francisco way out in front but Sircolo e/w at the odds might be a better bet if we don't get a price..

Race 2.
Hard to line up the form around this New Zealander Cog Hill ,,i'm reluctant to back these without a run over here...unless its wet of course...so i'll be risking him tomorrow especially at the 3's ,,,Spirit of Tara should win this ,,but hes had his chances ,,,did get beaten by the Scone Cup winner last start so the forms strong and hes also performed against the best around...hard to knock him on form but his win rate at 12% is a worry..I did however notice he was ridden closer last start and he still found the line...if they do the same from the good barrier he'll win this..
I'm a fan of Deuxieme and you can forget his last run where he was just way to far back and i think still alittle jaded from the track at e/f on the 22nd...he'll improve tomorrow on the better surface and has a better sprint than anything in this field...problem is he needs speed which is lacking here....Hard to follow Vilabled but she should run a better race from the good alley...and Clang Edition isnt hopeless and maybe a place chance at odds...
I have Spirit of Tara on top ,,,Deuxieme, Cog Hill, Villabled and Clang edtion for the placings..

Race 3.
Storm Signal was fantastic last start and should be hard to beat here..has an awkward barrier but the start position is fair from the 1350,,,,The Bailey runners of Coincidental, Decibeel , Star Of Asia all good chances ...i thought one at odds Countess Bathory was well in this race,,will need to have some luck getting across but from all reports the horse is flying and jumps well..so if she gets a position will be in it for a long way....Decibeel was jumping out of the ground last start but this is harder....Coincedental should be ready now and has the ideal barrier if he actually jumps with them this time..Galloway in good form and is the best of the Bailey runners...
Storm Signal / Coincidental,,,,,Decibeel,Countess Bathory,La Sizzerane and Star of Asia for the placings..

Race 4.
Sweet As and Thundering Girl were both good last start where they made a stack of ground on a day where it was hard to do so,,,Gold edition will have to use some petrol to get over to the rail but on last weeks performance you'd think she could do it and probably still be to good for these....i dont like the race as i'm not confident enough to back against Gold edition...if you are looking for value Sweet As and Thundering girl look a chance...and Silent Power trialled very very well at the coast and has the good barrier he should lead and if Gold edition struggles to get across this might be the one to sneak away with it..
i'll be having some fun with tris ect..

Race 5.
Magic Harmony was finding the line very nicely last start made a stack of ground from a mile back ...the extra 200m suits and so does the double figure odds....Gaze is the one to beat ,,will be stronger after that run last week and will have the nice run from the good alley...Zenarta is tuff but has only been here a few days from the float trip so i'll have him safe but he'll keep for next time....
Gaze is probably the safe bet but i do like the value with Magic Harmony ,,.. Zenarta ,Vietnam and Beauty Watch the place getters..

Race 6.
i like the swoopers here in Show Biz Kid and Picaday ..both suited better across the road but there looks a stack of speed here that should see them get there chance....i cant seperate them but at the odds i dont have to...
Hard to Catch should again be right in this and i thought Yell was a chance at odds ..the princess will be her usual brave self ...
Picaday should get the nice run and if Jb gets him out he'll be super strong the last 100m...Show Biz kid has the wider barrier but that doesnt worry him as he'll drop out anyway and will atleast get the uninterupted run to the line down the outside..
Picaday/SBK,,,,,

Race 7.
I really like Ikes Dream here...at first i thought Roman Arch all day but after doing the speed map i can see ikes Dream swamping them...I cant see alot of speed here,,,if it was a true staying test i'd be all over Roman Arch or Mahtoum but if its going to be a sit and sprint affair Ikes Dream is just to quick for them...she'll drop out the back and if they just cruise and then bunch up on the turn she'll win...even if shes suspect at the distance ...
Roman Arch and Mahtoum the dangers....don't leave out Above Deck aswell as High Academy a good chance to jag a place if hes ridden with Ikes dream at the back and tracks her into it..
Ikes Dream all day.

Race 8.
I'm a LaMontagna fan as you all know...gets to a distance that suits and should be winning and then shortening up heaps for the Straddie...she'll get back and does need some luck in the straight but there will be a stack of speed and the field should be broken up enough for her to find some room...
Master Dennis has finally got a barrier and shouldnt be underestimated ...Century Serb did well last start against the top sprinters around but will she'd have to be feeling it now....Nova Star's run was huge last start ,,actually a video standout,,,made an enormous amount of ground .....Fabiarna was solid last start aswell..
La Montagna on top....might have alittle on Master Dennis and Nova Star at the odds...good trifecta race..

Best Bets.. San Fransisco , Spirit Of Tara, Ikes Dream, La Montagna
Best ew/s... Sircolo, Magic Harmony

Good Luck all :)

Great Mack
 

Man on a mission, great insight on Doomben Saturday Races.

Your thoughts are much appreciated and follow the form indications each week.

I must say that a few smokey's are on the cards because of the large fields.

La Montagna, right if gets a clear run- a real roughie in the Doomben Cup High Academy.

Hey Mav,

Good card tomorrow at Doomben. A few going around that i can't wait to see at Eagle Farm but thats for another day. Nice weather here....could use some rain but the track will be in good order. Big fields should ensure good speed too, like they did last week.

Race 1 - Not a bad one to start on. I like Funlove. Up and coming galloper who won in Melbourne last year in a pretty good quality race. I note that they still have her nom'ed for the straddy, so the stable must have an opinion of her. For that reason, and the fact that she is still lightly raced and on the improve, i think she'll be good value. The 16 alley is a worry, but she has speed so can cross them without too much trouble. Sir Success has drawn an alley here and will have derived some benefit from the first and second up runs. Has won 3rd up before in this type of race, so he shouldn't be underestimated. Udder Brilliance is first up but has a great fresh record and could get home into a placing at big odds. This is one of his biggest tests to date i'd say, but from the alley and with all the speed, i think he has a show.

Race 2 - Terrible. Why is it WFA? None of these go close to being WFA horses, but anyway. Celtic Trial is fairly well performed so i have him on top. Seamer knows him well, has ridden him a number of times in the past so from the 2 i think he can go close. Spirit of Tara isn't one of mine, but he is a chance with some good Sydney form. The 4 wins from 32 put me off. The Jonker will probably lead (or at least be right on the speed) and can give some cheek at nice odds if they leave him alone. Not a bad eachway bet given the last performance.

Race 3 - Alan Baliey will be filthy if he doesn't have something in the placings here. 4 runners. I think Decibeel has a good show. Alan Thomas made sure no-one missed her last run, but i don't think her price will be too badly affected. The alley and the massive weight drop are enough to sway me into her. She hasn't been one i've been a fan of, but this isn't as strong as some of the fields she has met previously. Pattillo is riding really well too, i'm a big fan of his. Coincidental should be ready to show her best tomorrow, after the 2 runs fresh. She has drawn the great alley and gets over a bit more ground. Storm Signal was a great run last time and can repeat the dose here if they go hard out in front. Problem is, she may find herself deep again. Even from the 1350 start, you don't want to be deep around this track.

Race 4 - Good race. I think there is some quality here, but most of them will show more when they get over more ground. I like Van Rooyen. Liked his first start, the time was OK and there is plenty of scope for improvement. If they run along, which i think they will, Byrne can let him settle and finish over the top of them. Morton seems to know what hes doing too. Ghetto Blaster was deep around the Gold Coast track last time which is a death sentence. Given a better run here, he can return to winning form. Katsidis will be looking for a good day tomorrow i suspect. Captain Lightning shwoed plenty of speed last time and just felt the pinch the last 100 or so. If given an easier time out in front and 2nd up from a spell, i think he can get into the placings at big odds. The one at the bottom Sweet As is a good one i fancy, but wait for the Sires and TJ at EF for her. She'll be getting home tomorrow, but i like her for the 7 furlong + races.

Race 5 - All the oaks fillies here. Tough race. Beauty Watch is the class runner, and given that i couldn't find one to beat her, i've settled. She has the horror alley, but i think Purton will jag her back and find the fence. The speed should be on, so i think her class will get her a long way against these. Purton is in great form too. Top hoop. Upstaged, from the Moody camp, has come up from Melbourne and is still lightly raced but can certainly figure here. Moody places his horses nicely and wouldn't have this one here to make up the numbers. Prend is a frustrating filly. If this was at EF she'd be on top. But because its a Doomben, she won't get warm until after the finish line. Nothing went right at the coast last time (as predicted) but she has loads of talent. I just hope she gets into the Oaks or the Derby. Those are her races.

Race 6 - Good race this. I keep coming back to Hard to Catch. Daunting Lad has franked the form of the GC race in a big way, and so if he gets in from the alley (which i think he will, given the huge amount of speed), i think he can win again. Good Stradbroke chance too, in my opinion. Hes the sort of horse you'd love to own, he puts in every race. Princess Margaret is the same. I doubt her ability to win against these class gallopers but i know better than to discount her completely. It was a fighting win the other day and she can easily trouble these with a good run in front. Rodd is a great booking too. Show Biz Kid will be ready for a big one tomorrow, and connections are hoping he wins this to assure a spot in the Straddy. Good luck to em, Doomben doesn't suit this bloke, but if the speed is on he will be flying home.

Race 7 - Doomben Cup time. Poor field, but one of them has to win. I can't see any reason why Above Deck won't. I searched and searched for one to beat him, but just couldn't. I came back to the lack of speed - he'll be camped right on pace and has great acceleration at the end of his races. Hes too good i think. Xlerate i up a long way in class but it was a top run last time with the grandstand on his back, and can surprise a few here if given the right run. Roman Arch is a tough old galloper and can run well here. The 12 alley is a worry, don't know what they'll do from there...maybe press forward. If thats the case, he is a great chance to knock them all off. Can get excited about Ike's Dream, been too costly lately...might need more speed on than they'll give her here. But hey, i've been wrong before :).

Race 8 - Lucky last. Good race too. Master Denis has drawn an alley, and with it hes got his best chance of winning one of these races. He has loads and loads of potential and with speed on, i think he can beat these. Love the way he races, and Colless will make sure he gets the breaks in the run. La Montagna is a top filly who can run well against these tomorrow, but i just prefer Master Denis at this stage. I reckon they would've been better going into the Glenlogan Park race with her, rather than taking on the 3yos. Nonetheless, you should never discount quality. Speaking of which, Tereschenko isn't without a chance either. Don't know what went wrong at the coast last time, but all must be ok now given that he is running tomorrow. Fashions Afield would be fav in a race like this if she were running, so that means Tere should be given a top hope too.

Good days racing tomorrow. Don't really have any specials, but Van Rooyen and Funlove are good chances with nice eachway shows going to Hard to Catch and Master Denis.

Good luck everyone

Sven

other state selections
 

Randwick
Ledger (one last chance for this donkey,,,suited better in this)
No wine no Song,Amanian
Flemington
Purple Choco, Rubijon, Recapitilise, Merlot Now
Adelaide
Party Charter, Blue Bows.
Gold Coast
Omnitrader
Toowoomba
Shades Of Steel
Tatura
Cathy Come Home
Kembla
Derrydane

Good luck all...and forgive my slopiness in my summary above where i'm calling alot of the fillies "he" and vice versa...been a long day and night and still havent finalised things yet.....
i'm confident in Melbourne ,,been going great guns downs there of late.,and finally a race for Merlot Now to win...hope the track is good though..

Like Picaday tomorrow at Brissy

e/w with two fingers in brissy

I think Matras will win the last in Melb, unlucky last start.

Good Luck

Good start Mav,

5.50 for San Franfrisco is huge...hope you had a nice collect :D

Sven

5.50 huge?? What about the 30 bucks for countess bathory?? Mav didn't list it as his top rater but he definitely gave it a worthy mention, well done mav hope you were on it

The kiwi's are doing OK. One worth a bet [well I go 1x6ew ratio] is Gazelle [NZ] race7/11 if anyone is around. The 'icemans' only ride here today.

Gaze[NZ] blew them away as did Org Hill[NZ] and [almost] Sizerane[NZ]. Our lot is a bit light on class this year.

Mav/Sven
Thank you both.
Look for you blokes each week.

Yeah, good tipping.

It was a punters day today in Brisbane. Well, I thought so anyway. 7 of the 8 winners seemed to be pretty obvious logical selections.

La Montagna's pretty handy, huh??? :D

Hope you don't make the same mistakes with people. :D

Nope,,i'm very careful,,Crying game was the scariest movie i've ever seen :)

Wow a great days racing at Doomben today,,Between Sven and i we tipped the card except for Cog Hill...

Race 1,
I had San Franfrisco way on top rated at 2.80 and got $6 ..couldnt believe the odds...love starting the day like this..sort of sets you up for the day..
i just love the breed aswell,,and backed a Frisco in Grafton for an even better collect...easy system ,,just back the friscos..
Race 2.
Took on the hot pot and got smashed...Spirit of Tara was angling for a run when Cog Hill was surging to the front,,got a few lengths on him and just couldnt catch him..
Cog Hill was very impressive as he wasnt totally extended aswell..
Race 3.
Storm Signal , Coincidental and Countess Bathory were all backed...and a great result..sort of result where you wish you had the whole stake on the winner ,,Free roller killed the tri and 1st4 which hurt as i had Star Of Asia 3rd and free roller for 4th ...oh well ..a good result so i shouldnt be whinging..
Race 4.
Gold edition $4.20 ?? another race where i thought i wouldnt be able to get on,,she was just to good...great result all round here with the tri and 1st4 ..
backed Silent Power aswell who i though ran very well..
Race 5.
Gaze the safe bet...but you guys no me..nothing safe about my betting and i had a go e/w on MAgic Harmony and Veitnam and got done...
silly silly boy..
Race 6.
SBK and Picaday for the win here,,,and i said last week that i under estimate HArd to Catch and i did it again....i said it was a race for swoopers and they filled the first 5 places ....Hard to Catch was breathtaking and SBK also was very impressive....
Race 7.
Another race where i took on the hot pot in Above Deck...Ikes dream was brave but there was more speed in this than i was hoping..Mahtoum the distance runner trying to make it more of a staying test...
i know in my summary i said i wanted a slow tempo for ikes dream a back marker which is usually a tough thing to do...but my reasoning was shes suspect at the distance as i was hoping Above deck would be..and if she was in touch with them in a bunching field and she hadnt done any work at all she would sprint to quick for them.....but she had no gas in the tank at all..Beadman tried to tack onto the back of Above Deck but couldnt keep up.
Race 8.
Wow is all i can say...backed her for a stack...and was thinking no chance ...couldnt believe it,,,what a horse...Straddie here we come at 26's and a feather weight....woo hoo :)

Other states were awfull..
saved me last week and brought me back this week,,,
Rosehill
Ledger (never again)
Nowinenosong ...nearly

Adelaide
Party Charter (very good will be winning soon)
Blue Bows ??

Gold Coast
Omnitrader..thought i had this..would have been very nice at the odds

Tatura
Cathy Come Home...poor old girl will win soon...the longer the better..

Melbourne
Maucaus causeway..brave
Rubijon...very nice..thank god...nice tri
Slow track ruled out Merlot and Recap

Toowoomba
Shades of Steel ..cant win going that wide around there...next time..

as you can see 1 from 10 ..not very good at all....
lucky enought to jag a couple in Grafton...but a tuff day away from brissie..

Hope you guys had a good one...good to bounce back at brissie after an ordinary day last week..
drinks are on me and Sven ..
cheers :)

Hey Mav,

Congrats on another great day :). It sounds as though you have the straddy result cornered w/ good odds on St Basil, La Montagna and Daunting Lad. The only other one i'd want for it at this stage would be Hard to Catch. Altho, i'm sure you're content with the ones you've got :D.

As for the racing today, well....you can't go past La Montagna. Astonishing. Thats all you can say. I don't care if the leaders went too hard or if they're no good, hell i wouldnt even care if they had 70kgs on their back, for La Montagna to put in that sort of a finishing burst was sensational.

The 2yo race was full of interest and well Gold Edition did it again. Shes a tough little filly. Liked the run of Ghetto Blaster a lot. He has plenty of upside and won't be far off in the Sires or the TJ if connections go that way. Silent Power, over a little bit more ground, can win a nice race too....that was a good return.

I'll leave my judgement of the kiwis until they race something decent. Cog Hill won well but beat a bunch of camels. Gaze also won well, but most of the fillies in that race had something against them. You'll see an entirely different affair come the Oaks at Eagle Farm - the long straight and the tougher races.

I love Hard To Catch. He is a great little horse. As i mentioned in my analysis, he just puts in every time he goes onto the track and today he was fantastic. Haven't seen any times for the day, so i can only go on what my eyes tell me, and they say that he beat some pretty decent horses pointlessly. I'd love to have a piece of him coming into the Straddy with no weight, thats for sure.

And who can forget Above Deck. Was just too classy for them. Zahra rode him perfectly too. Didn't get frazzled mid-race when he was back [probably] further than expected. And although i thought he made the wrong move going 5 and 6 deep around the turn, he judged it well (because as AT said, he was on the best horse, and he knew it). I noticed High Academy getting to the line well at the end too, nice effort that. Won't get any prizemoney for it, but to put in an effort like that at WFA must be heartening for connections.

Well, onwards and upwards toward the 10000 and the EF carnival. I can't wait to see some of these top horses in the flesh when they get back to EF, i can tell you.

Again, congrats on the big day today Mav (and big get w/ Countess Bathory btw :)).

Sven

Yep feeling good about the Straddie ..but after today i'll have to think about savers on Hard To Catch and Show Biz Kid if he gets in... not my style the whole saver thing but i'll see what the odds are like..
A good day today..on reflection though i totally over thought the Cup and sometimes try to hard to find any reason at all to risk the hot pot..
Should have backed Gaze as well...on top in my ratings and had nothing on
Will be studying hard the video tomorrow..havent seen any of the replays yet...just had heaps going on today with 23 full stake bets ..which is about 8 more than my comfort zone ..not usual where i bet in every single race on the card in Doomben but when i start so well i get alittle carried away....
no discipline at all and after 2 years you'd think i'd be standing in the dole que :)
just lucky i guess..

Mav,
Your an absolute champion. I was half looking at countless bathony and you totally confirmed it, had a very nice collect there, glad to see your back to your best cleaning them out. Well done to sven also. This brisbane thread each week is providing winner after winner, well done guys.
Its great to see people with your knowledge to share your thoughts.