Stradbroke Discussion thread
 

Yea well I am sort of bored and I am getting over the idea that the money I shelled out on Show Biz Kid was all a waste I did however do it before the weights come out so I probably only have myself to blame. Below is the order of entry for the straddie with I don't think any race left in which to qualify for the race.

EXEMPT ALL BAR ONE 4H (Gillian Heinrich) 53 -5
EXEMPT DAUNTING LAD 4H (Bill Naoum) 51.5 -6.5
3 MISS POTENTIAL 7M (Bill Borrie) 54 -1.5
4 VIRAGE DE FORTUNE 3F (Bruce McLachlan) 52 -2
5 RED OOG 6G (Joseph Pride) 56 -2
6 SHANIA DANE 4M (John Hawkes) 53 -2.5
7 FASHIONS AFIELD 3F (Gai Waterhouse) 51.5 -2.5
8 GEE I JANE (NZ) 5M (Neville Couchman) 53 -2.5
9 CALVEEN (NZ) 5M (Peter G Moody) 52.5 -3
10 NATURAL BLITZ 6H (Doug Harrison) 54.5 -3.5
11 MEDIA 3F (Bob Thomsen) 50.5 -3.5
12 NEVIS (NZ) 4M (David Payne) 52 -3.5
13 ST. BASIL (NZ) 8G (Bevan Laming) 54.5 -3.5
14 STAR SHIRAZ 4M (Rex Lipp) 51 -4.5
15 YELL 6G (John Hawkes) 53.5 -4.5
16 BALLET SOCIETY (NZ) 4M (Pat Hyland) 51 -4.5
17 PERFECTLY READY 3C (Mick Price) 51.5 -5
18 MISS ANDRETTI 4M (Lee Freedman) 50.5 -5
19 STREET SMART 3F (Ron Maund) 49 -5
20 LA SIZERANNE (NZ) 4M (Roger James) 50.5 -5
21 PRISONER OF LOVE 4M (Guy Walter) 50.5 -5
22 COG HILL (NZ) 5G (Richard Collett) 52.5 -5.5
23 LA MONTAGNA 3F (Barry Baldwin) 48.5 -5.5
24 PRINCESS MARGARET 4M (Michael Nolan) 50 -5.5
25 MAGICALLY 3F (Mick Price) 48.5 -5.5
26 BREEZY (NZ) 4M (Danny O'Brien) 50 -5.5
27 CONSULAR 9G (Bill Baker) 52.5 -5.5
28 OUTBACK PRINCE 4H (Anthony Cummings) 52.5 -5.5
29 HARD TO CATCH 4G (Pat Duff) 1kg Penalty 52 -6
30 BLACK INK 5G (Les Kelly) 52 -6
31 DEA 5M (Kevin Corstens) 49.5 -6
32 FALAISE 3G (John Hawkes) 50.5 -6
33 LIVE IN VAIN 5G (Peter G Moody) 52 -6
34 MESSIAEN 6G (Ray McCall) 52 -6
35 CLASSICONI 4G (Shane Fliedner) 52 -6
36 PROUDLY AGRO 6G (Barry Bowditch) 52 -6
37 IMPALER 5G (David Atkins) 52 -6
38 SHALIMAR SKY 5M (Guy Walter) 49.5 -6
39 LEIGH VALLEY (NZ) 4M (Graeme Sanders) 49.5 -6
40 VOLITANT 4H (Michael Hibbs) 51.5 -6.5
41 SPIRIT OF TARA 4H (Gerald Ryan) 51.5 -6.5
42 COUNTESS BATHORY 5M (John Wallace) 49 -6.5
43 UNDUE 4G (Shane Clarke) 51.5 -6.5
44 KINGSTON BIRD 5M (Shayne Halse) 49 -6.5
45 DEVIL 7G (Les Kelly) 51.5 -6.5
46 SERENOTE 4M (Stewart Mackinnon) 49 -6.5
47 DIAMOND HAILEY (NZ) 5M (Cliff Brown) 49 -6.5
48 MISS MOONEY MOONEY 4M (Tony Wildman) 49 -6.5
49 SASSBEE 5G (David Jolly) 51.5 -6.5
50 UNABATED 4M (David Hayes) 49 -6.5
51 DANCE THE WAVES 5G (Gillian Heinrich) 51.5 -6.5
52 MESMERISING 4M (Bevan Laming) 49 -6.5
53 RECAPITALIZE 5H (Mathew Ellerton) 51.5 -6.5
54 DEUXIEME 7G (Bryan Guy) 51 -7
55 FLAMING 4G (Gai Waterhouse) 51 -7
56 SHOW BIZ KID 6G (Ron Macrae) 51 -7
57 COOL FRONT 5G (John O'Shea) 51 -7
58 LEGENDARY MAN 4G (Ken Lantry) 51 -7
59 IMPRISONED 4G (John O'Shea) 51 -7
60 PICADAY 5G (Bruce McLachlan) 51 -7
61 NESSUNO 6G (John Wigginton) 50.5 -7.5
62 PROSECUTION (NZ) 7G (Jackie Crompton) 50.5 -7.5
63 SMART AND MIGHTY 6G (Tony Noonan) 50.5 -7.5
64 KING REX 5G (Stephen Hood) 50.5 -7.5
65 TOP MARC 6H (Kelly Schweida) 50.5 -7.5
66 DENMARKET 3C (Gerald Ryan) 49 -7.5

st basil

Ok now the way I see it the following horses will not lineup

All Bar One
Virage De Fortune
Fashions Afield
Calveen
Perfectly Ready (think they are crazy not having a crack with this horse)
Miss Andretti
Magically
Breezy

and I would think that the following horses maybe questionable to lineup aswell

Miss Potential (Injured on the weekend wouldn't count her out though)
Natural Blitz (Not sure but thought I had heard he wasn't coming)
Media (Doubtful through injury)
Nevis (I thought that I heard this horse may have been hurt on the weekend not sure)
Prisoner of Love (not heard that this horse is coming up)
Princess Margret (?????????)
Outback Prince (No Idea)
Dea (once again no idea)
This is how I think they will lineup

1. Red Oog 56kg
2. St. Basil 54.5kg
3. Miss Potential 54kg
4. Yell 53.5 kg
5. Shania Dane 53kg
6. Gee I Jane 53kg
7. Cog Hill 52.5kg
8. Consular 52.5kg
9. Outback Prince 52.5kg
10. Nevis 52kg
11. Hard to Catch 52kg
12. Black Ink 52kg
13. Daunting Lad 51.5kg
14. Star Shiraz 51kg
15. Ballet Society 51kg
16. Media 50.5kg
17. La Sizeranne 50.5kg
18. Falaise 50.5kg
19. Street Smart 49kg
20. La Montagna 48.5kg
Emergencies
21. Messaien 52kg
22. Classiconi 52kg
23. Proudly Agro 52kg
24. Impaler 52kg

if la montagna shows what it did 2 weeks ago then it wins with 48.5

don't mind star shiraz

falaise has potential

st basil is proven...really came home well last start when nothing much was firing

Hard to argue Chuck he well and truly beat them last year and probably should have gone very close to winning year before with a bit of luck he could have been lining up for 3 in a row.

My picks right now are probably La Sizeranne, St. Basil, Star Shiraz, Miss Potential and Consular I wouldn't rule Media out completely if she comes up either hard to say right now but that is what I like mostly. As far as La Montagna goes she is a good horse but I can see her running into trouble and I wonder if she can get home over a couple of tough veterans like St.Basil and Consular.

Turns out Media isn't under an injury cloud someone just bought up the idea that she was to be retired to stud and apparently that was all false so I would say she is most likely a definite starter.

One horse I totally forgot before for no particular reason is Gee I Jane looking over her form she has really improved this time in and she is the reason why I rate La Sizeranne an enormous chance to be winning this years stradbroke weighted beatifully really meeting Gee I Jane 2.5kg better for beating her a couple of starts back. Now have a look at the tape of the BTC Cup and look at the finish of Gee I Jane she flew and really left St. Basil flat footed I know this race is longer and he would have only derived benefit from that race but do not undersell either of these horses both are exceptional chances.

Another who after having a close look through the form is Cog Hill can run out a real strong mile and meets La Sizeranne 1.5kg for beating her by a 1/2 length over a mile a couple of runs back also, Normally in the Strabroke you need to run a mile and in my opinion this is how i put it right now.

La Sizeranne
Cog Hill
St. Basil
Star Shiraz
Media

I'm pretty sure Ballet Society is the one thats off to stud Raw..

I'm keen on St BAsil (17's)
Daunting Lad (21's)
La Montagna (26's)

the only other 1 i'd be tempted to back would be Consular if he gets in..the horse is racing as good as ever and has the ability on this track and distance to upset these guys...
Hard To catch rates high...might save on this horse but will wait till barrier draws and the final field..
Falaise has impressed me ..youd think this distance would suit..

If Miss Potential does race, draws a good barrier and gets a good start she will eb very very hard to beat. After she got slammed last week at the start there was no hope of her winning it in a million years. If shes closer to them next week shell be very hard to keep out.

St Basil, Hard to Catch and Gee I Jane will be screaming home late and will have the room on the track this time, with the bigger straight at eagle farm which is going to suit them to a tee.

Actually I would probably have Miss Potential ahead of Star Shiraz on my list my only concern would be the buffeting she to last weekend.

EXEMPT DAUNTING LAD 4H (Bill Naoum) 51.5 -6.5
2 MISS POTENTIAL 7M (Bill Borrie) 54 -1.5
3 RED OOG 6G (Joseph Pride) 56 -2
4 SHANIA DANE 4M (John Hawkes) 53 -2.5
5 GEE I JANE (NZ) 5M (Neville Couchman) 53 -2.5
6 NATURAL BLITZ 6H (Doug Harrison) 54.5 -3.5
7 MEDIA 3F (Bob Thomsen) 50.5 -3.5
8 ST. BASIL (NZ) 8G (Bevan Laming) 54.5 -3.5
9 STAR SHIRAZ 4M (Rex Lipp) 51 -4.5
10 YELL 6G (John Hawkes) 53.5 -4.5
11 STREET SMART 3F (Ron Maund) 49 -5
12 LA SIZERANNE (NZ) 4M (Roger James) 50.5 -5
13 COG HILL (NZ) 5G (Richard Collett) 52.5 -5.5
14 LA MONTAGNA 3F (Barry Baldwin) 48.5 -5.5
15 CONSULAR 9G (Bill Baker) 52.5 -5.5
16 OUTBACK PRINCE 4H (Anthony Cummings) 52.5 -5.5
17 HARD TO CATCH 4G (Pat Duff) 52 -6
18 BLACK INK 5G (Les Kelly) 52 -6
19 IMPALER 5G (David Atkins) 52 -6
20 FALAISE 3G (John Hawkes) 50.5 -6
21 MESSIAEN 6G (Ray McCall) 52 -6
22 CLASSICONI 4G (Shane Fliedner) 52 -6
23 PROUDLY AGRO 6G (Barry Bowditch) 52 -6
24 UNDUE 4G (Shane Clarke) 51.5 -6.5
25 VOLITANT 4H (Michael Hibbs) 51.5 -6.5
26 SPIRIT OF TARA 4H (Gerald Ryan) 51.5 -6.5
27 COUNTESS BATHORY 5M (John Wallace) 49 -6.5
28 DEVIL 7G (Les Kelly) 51.5 -6.5
29 SERENOTE 4M (Stewart Mackinnon) 49 -6.5
30 DEUXIEME 7G (Bryan Guy) 51 -7
31 SHOW BIZ KID 6G (Ron Macrae) 51 -7
32 COOL FRONT 5G (John O'Shea) 51 -7
33 LEGENDARY MAN 4G (Ken Lantry) 51 -7
34 PICADAY 5G (Bruce McLachlan) 51 -7
35 PROSECUTION (NZ) 7G (Jackie Crompton) 50.5 -7.5
36 SMART AND MIGHTY 6G (Tony Noonan) 50.5 -7.5
37 TOP MARC 6H (Kelly Schweida) 50.5 -7.5

Well these are the 1st acceptors for the Stradbroke doesn't look to great for Undue even now to actually make the field but who knows still another week of racing to go yet you never know what will happen surprised to read that Natural Blitz is very likely to be in the field he was one i really didn't think would be lining up.

I also made a mistake earlier by saying that there are no more exception races there are 2 to be run this weekend the QTC Cup (1200m) and the Sir Edward Williams HCP (1500m) the winners of these races are excempt from ballot and could make things interesting if a couple of the lowly rated horses happened to come out and win the race.

Im gunna chuck in another roughie for the Stradbroke in YELL. $51 currently on sportsbet, has drawn barriers 17 & 14 in its last two races with 58.5 & 59 kg, and finished 2.2 & 3.1 lengths from hard to catch both times. As long as it draws a barrier next week, dropping to 53.5 you've gotta think its got some hope.

I agree there mate infact i think it is a very very open race I just wonder if this horse has the ability to find something close to his best again I have looked at the weights and the barriers he has drawn just not sure what to think of him to be honest

I agree with you, i was looking through his whole form and cant decide how good the last two runs have been. As its been seen before, horses perform well from outside barriers but dont improve as expected from a decent barrier and lower weight. The other worry i had was the 7 day backup as the closest he came to that was an 8 day backup in which he finished 7th i think. Still might be worth a few bucks each way at $51

ST Basil barrier number 1 ??? he wont know himself :)
go the old boy ...
hope he gets some room in the straight...

yep agree raw and HW. I like the class in the straddie this year as per usual. Horses like Miss potential, yell, st basil, red oog who have been therfe and done that. Consular is a place chance as is nat blitz. It is such a tough race though.

[QUOTE=HORSE WHISPERER]Im gunna chuck in another roughie for the Stradbroke in YELL. QUOTE]

Hasn't won a race for over a year. We should be useing him to wash our hands by now :-)

7-4.00 AAMI STRADBROKE HANDICAP 1400 M
Of $1020000 Of $1000000 and $20000 trophy. 1st $640000 and trophy of $20000, 2nd $200000, 3rd $100000, 4th $40000, 5th $20000. (GROUP 1). No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 20+4 EM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen
1 RED OOG Joseph Pride H Bowman 5 56
2 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison S Baster 22 54.5
3 ST. BASIL (NZ) Bevan Laming M J Cahill 1 54.5
4 MISS POTENTIAL Bill Borrie C W Johnson 18 54
5 YELL John Hawkes 7 53.5
6 GEE I JANE (NZ) Neville Couchman S Seamer 24 53
7 SHANIA DANE John Hawkes 6 53
8 COG HILL (NZ) Richard Collett M Rodd 19 52.5
9 CONSULAR Bill Baker Z Purton 20 52.5
10 OUTBACK PRINCE Anthony Cummings D Nikolic 15 52.5
11 BLACK INK Les Kelly B Pengelly 11 52
12 HARD TO CATCH Pat Duff J Bowditch 14 52
13 MESSIAEN Ray McCall J Holder 10 52
14 DAUNTING LAD Bill Naoum A Pattillo 4 51.5
15 STAR SHIRAZ Rex Lipp J Byrne 2 51
16 LA SIZERANNE (NZ) Roger James C Williams 13 50.5
17 MEDIA Bob Thomsen Ms K O'Hara (a) 3 50.5
18 MAGIC MARVO Rod Craig J Taylor 16 49
19 STREET SMART Ron Maund Matthew Palmer (a) 8 49
20 LA MONTAGNA Barry Baldwin C Newitt 21 48.5
21E IMPALER David Atkins 9 52
22E FALAISE John Hawkes 12 50.5
23E CLASSICONI Shane Fliedner 17 52
24E PROUDLY AGRO Barry Bowditch 23 52

(I STOLE THIS OFF THE GROUP 1 COMP. HOPE U DONT MIND RAW)

HAHA Fair call!! That was one thing im worried about, although im still going to have a little e/w on him. There are so many horses that given the right run will win this race. I think from the barrier, compared to where alot of the other horses are drawn, he has a great chance from the last two runs under huge weight and drawn out in the grandstand.

Red Oog more chance in this race than in the stradbroke for sure. Wouldnt be surprised to see him win out of the decent barrier. If St Basil can get clear running in the straight we know whats going to happen. Miss Potential has drawn very wide and will probably get a shocking run 3 or 4 wide, although if she can get slotted in shes definiteyl good enough to win. Hard to catch has drawn ok, given he goes back anyway, it should suit his racing style drawing the 14. Daunting Lad & Star Shiraz are both huge chances now with no weight and a good barrier, with alot of the good hopes drawn so wide.

Such hard race to pick, and if you get the winner you will definitely be getting awesome value!!

Don't write off Miss Potential she is the only horse with speed in this race the wider barrier might help her out by keeping her away from to much congestion which she got last time. She could get to the lead and have a farily easy time of it she will take a power of beating if she crosses to the lead which I think she will I certainly won't be leaving her out.

AAP

Stradbroke betting was reshuffled after Wednesday's barrier draw with early pre-post favourite Cog Hill coming up with gate 19 and other leading fancies La Montagna (21) and Gee I Jane (24) faring badly.

Last year's winner St. Basil is now outright favourite at $7 with TAB Sportsbet while Cog Hill has drifted to $8.50 second elect with Queensland's top hope Hard To Catch.

La Sizeranne is next best at $9 ahead of La Montagna ($10) and Gee I Jane ($13).

AAP

I do like La Sizeranne with Williams on board but I will probably have an ew on good old Consular.

Crash she is still my top pick I think she is an enormous chance to win this race just hope I amnot jinxing it talking it up but that last run was fantastic and by all reports she has gone ahead leaps and bounds since that run behind Countess Bathory who she gave 5 kgs to and after Countess Bathorys last run you can't knock that form.

Feet could be a problem. Has thrown a couple of plates, including one in that race. Trains in bar-plates but trainer reckons feet are good and the thrown plates were a freak that has never happened before [sus]. still, Williams is a great big race rider but might be riding for luck from a bad draw just like a lot of the favorites so far.

Dont worry Raw I'm not writing Miss Potential off, ill definitely be on her. I think my 3 for the race will be Yell, Miss Potential and Hard to Catch. But you could pick almost anything in the race and say it has a good chance.

Red Oog has barrier 5 this time and the blinkers are coming off. Newitt will get a good fence run this time.

Consular for the place and Red Oog to win will do me, but I won't be surprised if a roughy gets up as they seem to do a lot in these bookie's benefit Group races.

I meant Bowman, not Newitt.