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Off Crash's cuff
Mostly looking for some reasonable value with of these tips, but they are not long shots. Most of them will not start favorite and I'll put them up most days. Let's see how we go.
Backing them all at 1x6 ratio e/w. CANTERBURY Wednesday, July 12 [dead] r7/3 Flying Orders EAGLE FARM [good] r8/5 Our Private Jet GRAFTON [good] r4/3 What's The Scoop r5/9 When Did You Know r6/7 Kanter Brau r7/4 Sir Breakfast r7/7 King Rex r8/7 Search For Glory MORPHETTVILLE [good] r4/2 Lemonade Party r6/1 Vivonne Bay SANDOWN - HILLSIDE [dead] r6/7 Red Ali r7/4 Schneiden r8/5 Lacey Underall Good luck. |
r8/5 Our Private Jet $5w $2p
r5/9 When Did You Know $4p What a nasty day for punters. My worst day in months. Bolter's winning all over the place and bookies stacking it away. A Murphy's law start-up to this thread but hang in there, it will come good. |
GRAFTON [good]
r1/3 Juma Rising r2/11 Best View r4/3 Royal Sports r6/4 Court Adjourned IPSWICH [good] r9/8 Moshi Moshi |
I have been going far to wide into long-shot territory so far, so I'm going to trim in a bit closer to the fav. Moshi Moshi $2.60p was the only score yesterday.
Friday, July 14 BATHURST [dead] r2/1 Pita Hapa CANBERRA [fast] r5/3 Armaday ROCKHAMPTON [good] r3/2 Sacred Harmony r5/1 Bello Gino |
peakester
Well done Crash.
The only one that missed was $9.00 in the betting. Cheers! |
$9 was too wide, your right mate.
Friday, July 14 BATHURST [dead] r2/1 Pita Hapa $2.50w $1.40p CANBERRA [fast] r5/3 Armaday ROCKHAMPTON [good] r3/2 Sacred Harmony $3.70w $1.40p r5/1 Bello Gino $3.50w $1.40p |
Sat. 15th.
DOOMBEN [good] r5/1 Classic Karla r7/2 Shysu r8/1 Birthday Bash MOONEE VALLEY [slow 6] r5/2 Presenting r6/3 Johnny Knoxville r8/3 Clavillo MORPHETTVILLE [good] r3/3 Mt Billy r5/7 Londo r6/3 Dollydeva r7/3 Cyclone At Sea r8/3 Old Songs RANDWICK [slow 7] r3/1 He's Canny r8/4 Lookout ---------------------------------------------------------- Sat. 15th. Non-metro GOLD COAST [good] r6/4 Ears To Victory HORSHAM [good] r5/5 Mighty Mio TOOWOOMBA [good] r3/2 Halluce's Devotion r6/7 Major Boyington ------------------------------------------------------ |
I hope punters who backed any of these followed my original advise to back my selections 1x6 ratio bet ew. The rain stuffed me up a bit as I wasn't handicapping for some of these conditions, and don't bother handicapping for heavy tracks anyway. I didn't back the last at Moonee Valley or Randwick but put them in the results anyway..
Horsham and Toowoomba both abandoned. DOOMBEN [good] r5/1 Classic Karla $2.30p r7/2 Shysu r8/1 Birthday Bash $2p MOONEE VALLEY [slow 6] went to heavy r5/2 Presenting r6/3 Johnny Knoxville $1.70p r8/3 Clavillo MORPHETTVILLE [good] to dead late. r3/3 Mt Billy $3.50w $1.80p r5/7 Londo r6/3 Dollydeva $2p r7/3 Cyclone At Sea $9.50w $3p r8/3 Old Songs [scratched] RANDWICK [slow 7] went to heavy. r3/1 He's Canny r8/4 Lookout $1.50p ---------------------------------------------------------- Sat. 15th. Non-metro GOLD COAST [good] r6/4 Ears To Victory I was going to mention Purser's tip at Doomben [R6 Western Brace $18.30w $5.30p] when I put this lot up, but thought it wasn't my tip and it wouldn't look right putting it here. Bragging rights belong to Phil, not me. Anyway, I hope a few other punters backed it besides this one as it really made my day and hopefully a few others here too. Cyclone At Sea was a good collect that saved the day for the win bet here and the place made a profit. cheers. |
Well Done Crash! it's a constant battle isn't it to stay in front, equalled my biggest bet of 2006 today on James The Jet, and still managed to win just $37 on the day, an unbelievable low maxi-Divi, combined with an equal bet on Over Lock, and several lesser losers, but guess I should be glad of small mercy's
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Taree
r2/4 Joe's Memory r6/1 Champion's League |
r2/4 Joe's Memory $2.20p
r6/1 Champion's League $1.90p No winner but a nice overall profit at 1x6 ew. |
wed. 19th.
Gawler [good 3] r4/1 It Ain't Easy Ipswich [good] r7/7 Monaseeci Sandown Lakeside [slow 7] r4/3 Extreme Makeover r7/6 Violet Ponds r8/2 Whittier Miss |
Monaseeci $4.90w $2p was the only good news yesterday.
ROCKHAMPTON Thurs. 20th. r3/2 Gloriosa Honey r7/5 Our Young Emperor |
Only a pineapple yesterday. Lets see how these go.
TOWNSVILLE Friday, July 21 r2/3 Pyramid Raider r5/4 Barron Hunter r6/1 Scutt |
A $2.20 p yesterday.
Saturday, July 22 Cheltenham [good3] r2/3 Chilli Stoush r6/7 Toast To Lenny r8/6 Sweet Julia Caulfield [dead 4] r2/1 Kingston Bird r3/2 Future Analysis r6/1 General Conclusion r7/2 Canary Islands r8/1 Evil Master Eagle Farm [good] r4/9 Our Private Jet r5/10 Lady Of Courage [ew longshot] r6/1 The Jackal r7/5 Bohemian Dancer [ew longshot] r8/1 Step Right In Good luck. |
Are you going to put your tips in for the new punting comp?
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A good day. I hope few got on-board.
Saturday, July 22 Chilli Stoush $1.60p Sweet Julia $11.90w $3.50p Evil Master $2.10p Canary Islands $2.80p Our Private Jet $4.70w $2.10p The Jackal $1.90p Step Right In $8.90w $3.40p |
Sunday 23rd.
Hawksbury [dead5] r8/1 Fuji Lad Scone [good3] r3/9 Nordic Princess r5/1 Spock r8/7 Lyn's Money Casterton [good3] r6/8 Foxes Folly |
Sun. result:
Nordic Princess $4.20w $1.50p Foxes Folly $1.60p Monday, July 24th. DUBBO [transfered from Dubbo to Wellington. Dead 5] r6/6 Bold Fiona r9/4 Worondi MILDURA [slow 6] r4/2 Glogettum r5/3 Georgie Rae r6/2 All Pressure r7/2 Tactical Jack |
From The start of the thread on the 12th. July to Saturday 22nd. Figures for Running total win and place for 58 bets are:
RTW: w/outlay 58 w/return 68.7 w/profit +10.7 [18.4%POT] RTP: p/outlay 348 p/return 384.6 p/profit +36.6 [10.5%POT] Obviously we would have been better off ignoring the 1x6 ew betting ratio I originally suggested and betting straight win bets. If all the above bets were bet 7 units the win instead of 1x6 ew the result would have been: ALL TOTAL WIN ONLY [7 units win only] w/ol 406 w/r 480.9 [68.7 x 7] w/pr 74.9 total profit, instead of 47.3 total profit betting 1x6 ew ratio. A big difference! The problem for the place bet here is the place price value for most runners that are above short prices and that is most of my bets. For those targeting favourites the place value would be worthwhile, as it is often 50% and sometimes more than their win price. Favourites make up a very small percentage of my target bets, so I'm dumping the 1x6 ew strategy here and recommending straight win bets. Cheers. |
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Still some good POT's there crash..... My Pop always said " You can't eat odds!" and "You never go hungry backing winners"......... |
Wellington has already gone to heavy and I just checked 'weatherzone' and it's rain all day there, so ignore the 2 Wellington bets for today. I just don't bother with heavy tracks getting heavier!
Hi Stix, As usual Granddads are never far off the mark, but place betting on all but shorties or the odd long-shot as a saver, is a dead duck. If a punter can cope with the inevitable outs, in the long run betting for the win is the way to go. |
Naturally, as soon as I advised to dump the place segment for tips here Murphy's law kicked in and any punter who kept to the 1x6 ew formula cleaned up today.
r4/2 Glogettum $3.80w $1.60p r6/2 All Pressure $3.20p r7/2 Tactical Jack $1.60p |
Rockhampton [good] Tues. 25th.
r4/1 Magic Soiree r5/6 St Spartica r8/3 Sacred Harmony |
Rockhampton
r4/1 Magic Soiree $3.20w $1.30p r5/6 St Spartica $7.20w $2.20p |
well done Crash ..very consistant tipping of late...i liked St Spartica aswell but was to scared of Bellogino ,,i couldnt split them and they dead heated..
wierd.. just out of curiosity how would you be going if you were going straight out 7 units for the win ?? |
Hi Mav,
You missed the top of this page as I am going win only now because ...well the reasons are above and on the previous page. Up to last Saturday [copy and paste from above]: ALL TOTAL WIN ONLY [7 units win only] w/ol 406 w/r 480.9 [68.7 x 7] w/pr 74.9 total profit, instead of 47.3 total profit betting 1x6 ew ratio. A big difference! I'm now back to betting straight win after the 1x6 experiment. What I would say in it's favour and from my records is that if SP is below $4, the 1x6 ew ratio is generally a good betting system [shorties]. Above $4 and the place odds mostly suck! So $2 to $3.80 and 1x6ew is good, above that just forget it as too many place punters target this area and kill the odds. The greater the SP above $4 the worse it gets. |
I still think e/w's are still an option Crash.....
Pheonix Express and Kantoshi Millions were examples for me last Saturday...Both rated high but in a crowded leader board..where as StepRightIn was at e/w odds but was a clear top rater so was backed for the win.. I think it all depends on how your ratings pan out....as a rule if my e/w comes up short i'd leave it alone... Your strikerate is fantastic.....do you take trifectas ect ?? i wonder if you took all your selections as banker then the field for 2nd and 3rd how you'd be doing.... |
I must admit mav. when it comes to exotics I am very much a novice. I learnt to punt from my grandfather and he was a win only man.
I understand basic exotics but not banker tri's. That's 1 x field x field isn't it? Wouldn't that cost an arm and a leg? How do you work out the cost for the field size? And what is this 'roving' banker I've heard of? How does that work and cost? I have seen some very good tri. pay-outs on some of my winner's races, but never really looked into it as a gamble option. |
Wednesday 26th.
Sandown hillside [slow 6] r2/5 Reichman r5/5 Itsechuca r7/6 Chouette r8/6 Sharipova Balaklava [good3] r5/7 Dekoda Gold r6/2 Miss Moneybox Eagle Farm [dead] r7/4 My Best Tycoon r8/2 Muscle Up |
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The cost of a banker trifecta is: (the number of other selections) x (the number of other selections minus one) So, if there is a field of 12, and you take one horse to win from the field, then you simply multiply 11 by 10. That equals $110 for a dollar unit. A "roving" banker trifecta means that your selection only has to place, not win. The cost is 3 times as much as a regular banker trifecta. |
Thanks for that Sportz.
I've never been a big fan of exotics because of the TAB % takeout, so I don't know more than the basics. Interesting to know how to work out the costs though. The tri would have to pay very well indeed, because I see that as $100 win bet for the banker tri. to beat, or a $300 place bet [?] or $150 ew bet for the rover tri. to beat :-)) |
Well, like you, I also find it difficult to justify the expense. I always thought it was a bit strange to have one horse to win and the whole field for 2nd and 3rd. BUT when you see some of the ridiculously high dividends that Mav has won, it's incredible.
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I don't have a NSW Tab account. I was hoping that there was going to be some change eventually, so that you could do that on Unitab as well.
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Me too Sportz with stab.
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I've never used the roving banker trifecta,,just to costly....
What works for me Crash is of course the banker trifecta,,but have a level stake.. say 150 ... in a race with 12 staters.. banker tri costs 110 so with the other 40 i'll have my banker with say my next 2 raters.. this 20x for 40... depending on the banker selection..if you've selected a good price winner as your banker then you might go even wider ,,say 3 or even 4 selections for 2nd and 3rd.... you could even just go 1/2 for the banker field tri which would only cost you 55 (for 12 runners)and have a level stake of 100 . when theres a large field then Stix is right..Nswtab is great for this as you can just take a percentage...i also like the Nswtab as they always underestimate our Qld horses down there...(starcraft started at 50.s ,, i/2 that on unitab) Dont tell clang and a few others were the same.... Interesting if you looked back on even just this thread and see how you'd have done ....,,,especially if you've rated the winning races 1,2,3 .. |
Thanks for that info. mav. I am indeed going to look back over my results to see what I have missed. I know there were some good tri's with some of my winners. Going to look into the tri. business generally, as someone is collecting and having fun [it appears you get a few goodies too] !!
Bombed out with a run of outs yesterday. Overdue I think. Only a couple today as very little time available for form study. Thursday, July 27 TOWNSVILLE r6/6 Annacristi r8/8 Emmbowen |
Can I do 3 days without a winner ? :-))
Need some money for tomorrow, so a bit more effort here: 28 July Ballarat [dead] r1/1 Illustration r8/7 Glebe Run r9/5 Ballyrogan Muswellbrook [dead] r6/10 Folly Lane r8/4 Sutton Rarju and 11 Danzego [backmarker from barrier 11 at odds] |
28 July
Ballarat r1/1 Illustration $1.10w $1.20p !!! r8/7 Glebe Run $2.20w $1.50p r9/5 Ballyrogan $6.80w $2.10p Muswellbrook r6/10 Folly Lane r8/4 Sutton Rarju $5w $1.80p r8/11 Danzego [scr.] |
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