These 2 horses cannot be beaten:

Rosehill - R2 2 Size Her Up.
Moonee Valley - R6 2 Rubitano.

Will start short i know but will win!!!

These 2 selections are from a plan that has a 100% strike rate in the past 4 years!!!

However these 2 are only the 41st and 42nd selections in that period.

We all know the hoodoo about posting selections on the forum PLEASE DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO ME TODAY , but if they don't win any criticism or flak thrown my way is fully acceptable.

Another one falls to the curse of the forum! Better luck with the 2nd bet but I think that may be a bit of a brave call!

Are you telling us that your system has thrown up 40 straight winners?
Man you must be rich.

Odds on...look on!

Dear Testarosa,

Ouch. This is not to rub salt in the wound with Size her up but just to comment. I assume you are talking about the Charter Publishing system. It's one I bought and intend to ask for a refund on, not because this horse lost, but because the system itself doesn't work to provide a weekly return. The extremely small number of picks at extremely short odds with a huge number of weeks between picks means it's almost impossible to build up from a small bank to a large enough bank to be able to take out profits in anything less than a year. Its other weakness is level betting with 30% of your bank on each selection. With this one loss anyone using the system would have wiped out a years worth of profit. I'm going back to staking on longer odds propositions.The other problem with the system is that with this one loss it has just shown itself to be flawed. How will you bring yourself to trust it again when the stakes are so high for such small returns. Good luck with your punting.

Double ouch, okay now I am rubbing salt into the wound. I am never, ever going to bet under the odds again. Its' time I did some homework.

luckylouie, it may help to remember there is no such thing as a horse that cannot be beaten. Every horse in a race has some % chances of winning. That also means every horse in a race has some % chances of losing.
When someone tells you a horse is "a certainty" or "it cannot lose" it pays to always take that with a grain of salt.
What I do is assess a horses chances of winning a race. I back horses where I obtain significantly better odds than my assessment of the horse's winning chances. I always take into account that every other horse has some chance, however small, of winning the race.

Thought Rubitano was a brave call for a "cannot be beaten" bet when you had Mystegic and Shaye Spice in the race - I didn't see the actual race so maybe someone can tell me how Rubitano actually ran?

As the Sky commentators are so fond of saying (usually after the race when the horse they were raving about 2 minutes earlier has been beaten) - "There's no such thing as a sure thing in racing."

Better luck next time.

_________________
"So certain are you. Always with you it cannot be done. Hear you nothing that I say?" - Yoda

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-08-17 19:23 ]

Catparrot - couldn't agree more. Never believe anyone who says a horse cannot be beaten because every horse can lose. Even if a horse has a 70% chance of winning a race there is still a 30% chance it will lose. If one of the other runners has a 10% chance but you can get 20:1 on it because all the dumb money is on the "certainty" then that is a good bet.

WELL WELL WELL never again will i be posting a "certainty".

Unbelievable , nothing can get past the hex or hoodoo of the this forum can it?

Luckylouie - Yes you are correct it is the Charter publishing system.One of my friends bought it a few weeks ago and being a bit of a novice at punting showed it to me its first pick since then was Rubitano 2 weeks ago and as we know it won well , so at first i thought this might not be to bad (even though looking at the rules some appear to be totally illogical!!!)

So i thought i would post the next selection(s) on the forum and look what happens.

Size Her Up didn't run to bad but was never a threat and Rubitano , well what can you say 2nd last over the line nothing to excuse it but an irregularity which we probably won't know till the morning.

Catparrot - This may sound totally hypocritical but i definetely agree with you that no horse is a "certainty" or a "sure thing" but when you are totally confident about a horses winning chances what else can you say "i think it will win" or "i hope it will win" , if you believe that you wouldn't you wouldn't be a very profitable punter.

Becareful - What happens if you back the 20/1 shot and the horse with a 70% chance of winning actually wins the race? Is the bet still a smart one?

I know this has been said and argued before but i believe one of the key components to successful betting is "AGGRESSION" , surely if you believe a horse is going to win a race you either back it or if its to short for your liking stay out of race.

Yes it is still the smart bet. I have no problem with you backing the short odds runner if you have properly assessed the winning chances and have a minimum price you will accept. Blindly backing it no matter what the price is a sure way to lose money because you have already acknowledged (and seen) that "sure things" can be beaten. Lets say you assess the horse as a 70% chance (personally I doubt either horse yesterday was any more than 50% chance and Rubitano probably less than than) - then you should say the horse has 70% chance of winning so don't accept anything less than $1.70 (got to aim for at least 15-20% profit to allow for errors and price changes).

Lets say you don't put a minimum price and in a year you get 10 70% chances to bet on and your average price is $1.40 - In those same 10 races I bet on the 10% chances that are paying $21.00 (20:1). At the end of the year you have won seven times but I have only won once - I guess you are the more aggressive and therefore more successful punter? Problem is when you look at your account you have spent $1000 and only won $980 ($100 on each bet) - I have spent $1000 and won $2100.

Personally I think the key component of being successful in this game is INTELLIGENCE - agression usually clouds your judgement and leads to irrational bets instead of smart bets. Hey but that's just my opinion.

Testa
Commisserations on your day yesterday.I would just like to endorse the sentiments of be careful and encourage you to learn from your mistakes.There is a very old but valid saying in racing."Money lost,nothing lost. Confidence lost, everything lost." Of course this assumes that your methods are sound in the first place. In the spirit of this forum where we all should be trying to help each other learn. Can I say read between the lines of Be Carefuls post. The secret and in my opinion the only way to win is to assess each horses winning chance and express that chance as a price which you are prepared to accept. When you are able to do that the knowledge you already have about staking will put you on the winning path. Mechanical selecting systems are not worth a stamp.But some of the staking plans the system players come up with are very good. Forget the systems.

What a read! I hope you guys don't tread on each other's toes and misunderstand the sentiments shared.

I have to agree with Testarossa about aggression. In the end, no matter what you think through or do, and eventually how you decide (and bet or NOT bet), the final action is essentially emotionally driven. That is a fact. And if one sees the punting game as a sport then aggression is a good way to talk about the emotion you need to push through with your selection.

There have been many times I didn't have that in me to make it happen.

I was absolutely delighted seeing so many contributors AND doing a lot better than my picks this weekend.

Becareful ,

Totally have to agree about INTELLIGENCE being a key component in being a successful punter, but i believe INTELLIGENCE is only for the form side of things and AGGRESION is the betting side of things , just my opinion , and your rightly entitled to yours , i don't think anyone can be right or wrong , whatever works for you.

Legion ,

No need for commisserations , didn't actually back those two horses , actually haven't had a bet for 3 weeks , just having a break getting ready for the spring , thats why i haven't posted any of "testarossas sure things" lately , but thanks anyway.

This forum always has something worth reading. And many of the tips are worth following too. I've missed your Sure Things Testarossa. (I'm a fan of the Big O's last race lunges too.) The hex on forum posts is only apparent. If you look back some posters here do quite well but sure enough if you stick your neck out and say "This one for certain!" it will fail. Good on you for sticking your neck out anyway!

The variety of punting styles on this forum is a good thing. I get lots from it. I don't mind the current level of temper-tantrums and sh*t-bagging either. That's people for ya. Adds colour. Debate will always generate a bit of negativity but on this forum the positive contributions are the vast majority.

I often bet with an old friend. He's never read a form guide in his life. He follows rumours and tips and bets large sums entirely with his testicals. I'm betting $1-$10 with charts and maps and graphs and databases, the whole show. He's winning!

I hope you are all ahead.

Hermes