Warrnambool Hurdle/SteepleToday
 

The first four races at Warrnambool today make up a pick-4 on AmericaTAB for us yanks and Canadians betting Australian racing. There is a decent amount in the pool which carries over 100% from day to day if no one correctly picks it.

We have very few of these hurdle/steeple races here, so I haven't much to go on in trying to find a winner in races 1 and 4. Any handicapping insight or selections would be much appreciated.

Regards,

Glenn

Thats a bit sad having 2 jumping races in your pick 4. These hurdles races today are hard as so maybe go as wide as you can. anyway for what is worth in the 1st race i like numbers 4,5,8. and in race 4 i like 1,5. The 2nd race is a maiden so thats hard too like defiantly no 2 as well as 10,15,16. Race 3 small field should be able to get the winner here, like numbers 2,3,5. Hope these are ok for you mate. As I said its very hard meeting and geez you poor yanks are going to have to have a lot of luck today go your way. Good luck in whatever you do today Avenger.

Cheers Breadman.

At least now I have some chance to score.Thank you very much Breadman, for taking the time to have a look.

The Australian racing site in the U.S. prints daily ratings and actually likes the #5 in race 1 and the #3 in race 3 as specials in the six races we get from there today. The only other special today is the #7 horse in race 2 at Coff's Harbour. It looks like they use some kind of neural system to generate their ratings.

Good luck to you today.

Regards,

Glenn

No Barker Lad???

For what it's worth Glenn, I decided to try out my ratings on these races and this is what they came up with:

RACE 1
80 . $2.1 . 5 . SANDERS LEGACY
47 . $3.6 . 3 . POKER FACE
12 . $14.3 . 4 . TRAVELLING BOY
12 . $14.3 . 1 . WAARIA
7 . $25.0 . 7 . AETOLUS
5 . $33.3 . 6 . SHERBORNE
2 . $100.0 . 13 . ATONE
RACE 2
67 . $2.5 . 10 . JERRYMAC
30 . $5.6 . 2 . CORRUPT JUDGE
25 . $6.7 . 5 . HYPED
22 . $7.7 . 1 . BIKKIE BARREL
22 . $7.7 . 14 . YENALED
RACE 3
70 . $2.4 . 1 . BARKER LAD
52 . $3.2 . 3 . CLOUDS OF COGNAC
28 . $5.9 . 6 . LIKABLE WILL
13 . $12.5 . 2 . SUNBOAT
3 . $50.0 . 4 . TANTRALITE
RACE 4
47 . $3.6 . 2 . CAPTAIN'S KEY
42 . $4.0 . 4 . MAXIMISATION
28 . $5.9 . 1 . ALOBAR
28 . $5.9 . 3 . NOAH YARN
15 . $11.1 . 5 . DINNA LATAR
3 . $50.0 . 7 . JIMMY CASINO
RACE 5
47 . $3.6 . 1 . BOURBONSTREETBLUES
22 . $7.7 . 6 . XSPARKX
18 . $9.1 . 7 . FLASH AFFAIR
17 . $10.0 . 4 . BEAU SABREUR
13 . $12.5 . 2 . EDDIE'S EAGLE
13 . $12.5 . 5 . JANERICDESNIK
10 . $16.7 . 12 . TRESTINA
8 . $20.0 . 10 . CHEVANTY
8 . $20.0 . 3 . LANDSLIDE VICTORY
7 . $25.0 . 15 . LE DELUGE
RACE 6
60 . $2.8 . 6 . CAMPASPE RIVER
43 . $3.8 . 8 . SPINNING RED
27 . $6.3 . 11 . KELCHER
18 . $9.1 . 5 . YOU GO FOR HUGO
13 . $12.5 . 1 . METHODICAL BOY
5 . $33.3 . 3 . RURAL LAW
3 . $50.0 . 4 . SURFIE PETE
RACE 7
57 . $2.9 . 2 . WHY NOT WORK
38 . $4.3 . 1 . FLYING DE LAGO
38 . $4.3 . 5 . HOWQUA
18 . $9.1 . 6 . WINE BUFF
7 . $25.0 . 7 . CONCEPTS
2 . $100.0 . 3 . LEMONADE PARTY
RACE 8
75 . $2.2 . 2 . GREAT STEPS
42 . $4.0 . 4 . HANDSOME IS
25 . $6.7 . 11 . AUSSIE HUMOR
20 . $8.3 . 7 . ARE EFF GEE
10 . $16.7 . 8 . SUPER PINS
10 . $16.7 . 1 . TEARINUPTHECOUNTRY
2 . $100.0 . 3 . PRINCE JEUNE

Thanks Sportz. It's a tough day there. I like the looks of your system and the numerical values it assigns each runner.

Regards,

Glenn

This is what my prediction are for your first 4 races

Race 1 : Will go for 3, 5 and 9.
Race 2 : 5 and 10. Interested on 5 as the rating is high with just returned from spell
Race 3 : 1
Race 4 : 1 and 4

So far so good

Glenn

Hmmm, unfortunately I didn't have Brother Jim in my ratings at all, but Sanders Legacy got there, and by my ratings, he was the best bet of the day.

I had Brother as my 4th pick and nailed the quinella even though I don't know what the Hell I'm doing on a hurdle race.

Glenn

It's a rating out of 100. Almost never get a score of 100 though. As a rule, any horse that scores 70 or more is a big chance and a score of 80 or more usually indicates a special. Those ratings are then converted to odds. I guess you'll have to double that figure to equate with US Tab dividends though. Your divs are based on $2 bets, aren't they?

Geez, race 5 looks damn hard. You're probably lucky that race isn't in your pick 4.

gday All

I dunno, but I find that the Hurdles and steeples are not that difficult to find the winner.. there is always plenty of form to go on.. flat and jump. and provided they stand up they run pretty true to form IMHO.

Sportz, what % are you setting your markets to.. I also think the top rater in the last is prob the safest best all day..

Cheers

Well, I'm halfway there, surely with a lot of other punters. I have 1 and 3 in the 3rd race, and 1,2,4, 5 in the 4th. Maybe I'll take down a piece of the pick 4.

XPT, darned good selections at your site. I have a look everyday.

Regards,

Glenn

Hard to explain xpt, because the pricing is actually connected to the ratings. My spreadsheet automatically converts the ratings into prices for me. Most races are rated to around 100%, but in some races, horses receive extra rating bonuses and that increases the % up to as high as 112%. Today's races were priced to: 98%, 99%, 100%, 98%, 98%, 102%, 96% and 110%.

No dramas at all...

I was looking at your numbers and trying to get a feel for the pricing...

I have been setting mine to straight out 100% of late... cuts down on lotsa duds if you try n bet overs...

Glen,

I think u have a great chance with your pick 4 with the horses you have chosen... good luck with it and thanks for the comment about my site.. pleased it is of assistance to pple

Cheers

Well, looks like I lose. The #3 scratched then the 6 beat the 1.At Coff's Harbour, however I did manage to put the 4-7 quinella together. The #4 was 3-1 on my TAB, The #7 was 53-1!

Glenn

Bad luck with Warrnambool mate. I don't know what it is, but whenever I have two horses in a race and one of them is a late scratching at the barrier, the other one never wins.

Yes, a shame. The pick 4 paid $4,500.

Thanks for the help; we gave it a great shot. 12:19 A.M. local time, and time for this old man to go to bed. Later.

Regards,

Glenn

You're kidding. Geez, it wasn't that hard to pick really. Could have had it with just 2 runners in the first 2 legs and 3 horses in the last 2. I guess it was the 3rd leg which got everyone. I probably would have had just 1 & 3 there too. Oh well, never mind.

2 jockey got admitted from that race.

Lucky enough to get the trfecta and first 4 here and backed the winner. Great end to the day.

Thought Great steps was a moral.... ah well bring on Newie... yeeeeeee haaaaaa

I backed both. My favourite type of betting race is one where I think 2 horses stand out, and this was one such race. I also backed the top 2 in race 6.

Next time there is a decent carryover in the pool, we need to form a betting partnership and split the spoils of victory. Seems perfectly legal to me.

I'll re-load and try Newcastle and Sandown today. It's that time of year when they run very late and/or I get very few races from Australia. Thanks again for pointing me in the right direction for betting information when I first posted here a couple of years ago.


Regards,

Glenn

Yes. You have to wait another 5 weeks for the switch over to daylight saving, then the races will be coming through much earlier for you and you'll be able to bet on the whole meeting.