$10k Project
 

Hi all,

many may think i this is a bad idea but i going to embark on an expirment/project. I want to raise 10 thousand dollars. at the moment the idea is to buy a motorbike but this could change, main idea is to get to the 10 thousand dollars mark. 10 thousand dollars. got it? 10k.

My plan is to start banking $50 and betting $50 each weekend for this project. Short odds won't worry me, idea is to get a payout no matter how big. Bank is available for large bets eg was very confident in racing to win last weekend in this situation at $1000 bet from bank would be a likely bet, or more depending on bank.(i know there is no certain thing in racing).

I will post my bets each saturday before the races and post results also in this thread.

Wish me luck! hopefully i'll be riding soon!

i usually bet $50 a week anyway just thought i'd have a goal and bank as well instead of just partying on winnning days and kicking myself with hindsight expertise on losing days.

It's fine to have a goal.

But unfortunately there is a world of difference between having a goal and achieving it.

A large number of punters have poor discipline. That means they have no chance of succeeding long term. Invariably they will have $5 on a winner and $100 on a loser etc. etc.

Even with discipline there is no guarantee of success betting on horses for punters doing their own thing.

There are in my opinion a number of key ingredients, assuming one is disciplined.

1. Finding good horses to back.

2. Then not backing them when you shouldn't. "Pick the winner then back it" punters will be long term losers. Guaranteed. Because they have little or no understanding of the maths involved in betting. It is like the "Pick the winner then back it" punter I saw today at Sandown .... a guaranteed long term loser. Because there was just one bookmaker operating in the room where he placed the bet, he backed Permaiscuous with that bookie at $2.60 when it was $3.40 in the main betting ring. On that basis this punter is quite prepared to make a profit of $1.60 from each dollar he bets instead of $2.40 which is 50% extra!! Putting it bluntly, we can easily see where the cliched term mug punter comes from.

You must know at what odds you should back each horse and at what odds you should not back a horse. This can vary from horse to horse. It is just too simplistic to eliminate all bets under say $3.00 or $4.00 or whatever.

I note this forum is full of selection methods and elimination rules but very sparse on ideas of how to know when a selection should or should not be a bet based on its odds.

Because that is the ultimate skill ... being able to handicap is the key to winning long term ...

PS ... I'm not sure on what basis you could have been very confident about Racing To Win winning the Group 1 George Main Stakes. The gelding was jumping up in distance from 1300 metres to 1600 metres. Sure, it had won the Doncaster Handicap over 1600 metres, but its previous start was over 1500 metres, not 1300 metres. In its career it had never gone up in distance more than 200 metres from its previous start. In addition, Court's In Session beat Racing To Win when they met on the 26th. August. I thought the race was a bit of a trap race, and odds on Racing To Win didn't look like value to me. Left the race alone.

Hi Neil,

Thanks for the feedback. Racing to win probably was a bad example from the weekend agreed. although i did pick the trifecta that race!

I am still learnign the game being a relatively new punter etc just thought this'd be a bit of fun. i'd get to 10k in 100 weeks if i just banked the $100 and 200 weeks if i had no winnners at all. I'll be happy if I manage to get there before week 100.

anyone want to post their tip as to what # week i'll get there? just for interest?

I reckon you can get there in under a year. May i also suggest if you are happy with a collect of any value that there are plenty of sportsbets over the period of a year which are near on certainties-Wether it be rugby AFL or soccer. Even Tennis and some times head to head golf bets.

If you are happy with 1.60-1.90 then i suggest you explore these options.

thanks deal. very good point on the sportsbets. I just might incorporate some!

simshmick, just spotted this post, wouldn't like to say when you'll achieve your goal, but I congratulate you on your calculated approach. It took me many years to adopt that type of attitude (long term plan) but not long after I did, I started to win, only a bit at first but it has gathered momemtum over the last 4 years and now I'm very confident of long term profits.
So I reckon you are on the way to that "Harley" good luck!

Ripping Idea, good luck.... !

week one
 

week one was a good start, put the whole $50 on cheeky choice for a payout of $290. makes the bank $340 at the end of week one.

Where was the heads up for the winner !!?? ;) Share them around... :D

couldn't get near a comp stix, me and two mates threw 5 each on tawqeet as well so that was some pocket money for the day at $18+.

simshmick, good on ya for a good start, just a word of advice (based on personal experience) better to only gloat about winners posted BEFORE the race, or you will really take some STIX, hee hee! no "pun" intended, that's just the nature of this site, you don't need to worry about the price reducing to $1.60c or so the win, very, very few will actually back it, unless you're a ************ wonder tipper! good luck!

Hi

I have to agree with party on this .

Think of it this way i had 50 on TERANABA on the nose. How do you react to that statement first thing you would probably say to yourself is yeah right easy telling everyone after the race.

Cheers
ubetido

Hey Guys,

I expected this response, I wasn't going to post my win but seeing as i had already posted my long term plan thought i should include each week. I couldn't get near a computer as i had been travelling (travell 200ks each way each week for work).

i really have no reason to make up my pick after the event. but will always try to post my bets before the races obviously,was almost going to give the week a miss but had to have a crack when i saw cheeky choice going out to 5+.

Simon

and don't get me started on teranaba. another guy at the Tab with us had $5 on the nose, would have loved a piece of that!

Hi Simshmick

No problems would you have posted had it lost? I can understand that on raceday many things change and what is deemed a bet can become a non bet and vice a versa.


These guys on the forum are a great lot and very knowledgeable in their own right so i am sure that wish you well.

Cheers
ubetido

My 2 bob's worth is with Neil on this one.

Even though RTW won, it was a shocking bet.
'Any price a winner' is the quickest way to the poor house. There can be winning bets that were bad bets and losing bets that were good bets.

Good handicapping and recognizing poor value are the 2 main foundation stones to building punting success. I believe RTW as a bet selection, was a standout example of the worst of both these foundation requirements.

[QUOTE=simshmick]Hi all,

many may think i this is a bad idea but i going to embark on an expirment/project. I want to raise 10 thousand dollars. at the moment the idea is to buy a motorbike.....

Wish me luck! hopefully i'll be riding soon! QUOTE]


Being a bit of a bikie myself [I've got a MG Californian 1100] I was wondering what sort of bike your [hoping] to buy mate?

Im looking at getting a 100 scooter. Yeh I know im a bit of a dare devil. But hey there cheap to run and heaps of fun. There you go even put a rythme in there for everyone. Cheers bm

totally agree with neil & crash in all they pointed out to you.
One other VERY IMPORTANT factor is money management
i.e how you bet your selections.
Without a good staking method you aint' going to get that bike for a long time!

Hey all,

thanks for the replies, and suggestions. Thats one thing i really enjoy about this place, learning and hearing views from experienced punters. I guess there only one way to learn and in this game it can cost you money. I forsee this thread/project becoming not only an attempt at reaching a goal but hopefully a path to becoming a better punter.

all wins/losses will be posted with a bank update, i have no qualms posting a loss.