What do you look at in the "Form" to find a winner?
 

Well there seems to be alot of threads on this site to do with tips and tipping comps. I'd like to compare with you guys as to how do you come to the conclusion that you think a horse will win?? Whats the biggest factor you look at when your reading through the form guide on a friday/saturday?? Im not talking about making a sytem where a horse has to have finished at least 2 places in its last 3 starts and not be going up by x distance. I mean how do you evaluate each individual race. Also how has your form "annalasys" changed since you have started punting.

Ill start by saying when i first began and had no idea what was goin on i basically just looked at whether a horse had won or ran a good place on a saturday at the same track or in the same metro. area.

Now after reading through these forums and watching the races for a couple of years now ill start with the same basic principle of seeing if its had a good run on a metro. track in its last few starts, then ill look into whether its a front running horse or a backmarker, and if its running style suits the track its racing at. Also looking at the barrier and how that will affect where it will be put in its run, and whether its carrying more or less weight from its last few starts. Jockey i have also found is another big one, where i never used to take much notice of that. I also have a look at the time its run, although ive found that can sometimes be a bit off the mark as showing how good or bad a run was.

Thats basically how i look at it, i seem to get a few good results if i stick to these, but i get caught up in backing horses ive seen win or that ive backed before and dont read the form in the race and just back these instead. Thats where i tend to lose alot of my money :S

I look for the horse that has the best winning chances in a race. Then I am prepared to back it ONLY if it offers what I consider value odds. I never try and "pick the winner" of a race.

Damn right, thats all there is now. discussion threads rarely even get a reply, so you may not get anything worthwhile here.

Still, i'll tell a couple of things i look at. I like to rate the quality & field strength of races. when i look at a race, i only consider horses that i think can rate the "class par" or better. for instance, in a class 6 on a Sat in Syd, i'll only consider horses that i think can rate 80kg or better, it obviously depends on their hcp. Its amazing how many races pop up where i'm not confident about ANY horse doing the class par, so then i move on. its my way of pinpointing the right races to concentrate on.

I also keep a list of horses to follow from video replays. for instance, i listed Desert War after his first up run, it was a cracker. He did all the chasing CIS in the death & RTW had the drop on him. It gave me confidence DW could reach his expected peak this prep. I noted i thought he'd be ready 3rd or 4th up but only on a dry track (seems to be more consistent on dry now). Last week in the Hill he received all the ticks, & you guessed it only DW & Eremein passed the "class par" rule, so it was a race in 2 in my book. (and value on the day).

So, in essence, I'm a ratings man & I combine that with some video study. I'm also working on "profiling" a horses actual abilities (or lack there of). i wont go into it here, it too comes from the video.

cheers

Thanks Raven, i agree that the discussion threads rarely last long on the first page, I just thought this could be an interesting thread that might be helpfull to alot of ppl on the site. There is always something someone else covers that you might not have thought of. Also i figure, the way ive been punting of late any extra advice cant hurt :P

Neil: I agree with the odds point you brought up. There is no point backing spf's all day, the run of loses would kill any profit if it turns out to be "one of those days", whereas a couple of good priced winners will more times than not see you in front.

have to agree with you guys,all tips & tipping comps now,no such thing as a healthy debate anymore.

I start by only considering the horses on the first 5 lines prepost,as these runners statistically win around 80% of all races.I don't look at prices first,just those on the 5 lines.Then from these runners Ilook for any with a "c" next to it.

Then I look at win/place %,barrier draw,jockey /trainer factor,days since last start,last start beaten margin,weight,distance and sectional times.

Then I try to do my own speed map.

After I have made a selection,then I look at price and decide whether there is any value in having a bet.

Ignoring 2yr. olds [and 3yr. olds until Nov.].

Process of reduction method works OK.

I look at the total field and decide which horses will suit the distance, condt. and track and are having at least their 3rd. start from a spell, unless they are well know 1st or 2nd up performers or are trained by the likes of Hayes or Mick Price who turn their runners out fairly primed.
I then rule out any that are out of their class by checking the prize money average of each horse [a quick and dirty way to do it, but it's pretty accurate]. Also, if a horse's best effort was to win a $12k race and this is a $45k race, my money won't be on it.

Out goes any runner that won it's last start but has less than a 20% win SR.
Out goes any runner over 6yrs. unless it has a lot going for it.

Now I check out gear changes for the runners and any gear change they have with the possible exception of blinkers on or off first time, it's usually 'out' with them! Yes they might win, but the Pope might knock on my door too.

With the runners left I turn my attention to their last starts and read the steward reports of each runners last start and also check their last 12mths. history .....out goes any of them that has not won in the past 12mths. [it's surprising how many horses there are that haven't] as they are most probably never going to win again, regardless where they run.

Now I look at what type of runner each horse is, what barrier they have and who is going to be steering them. I do look to see if the runners can run time but it's not the be all and end all. Long as they can run suitable time for the class involved, it's all in the running.

Now I look at PP prices and if the couple of runners I'm down to are 1st. and 2nd. favorites, I forget the race. If they are not I'll work it down to a single bet. I do like to find back-markers drawn wide as they often have better odds than they deserve.

By the time I'm looking at what type of runner a horse is [above], it's all a bit of art, experience and luck, not science. Sometimes we paint a profitable canvas and at other times we don't :-)

I go to the pub tab, grab a beer, and then just back the horse whose colours I like - especially if they include a pom pom.

Hi Filante!
Some time ago, I ran the pom-pom bit trough my database, from memory it produced better results than the tipsters. I try to dig it up and post it.
If I find it I can run it again including colours as well, give me the combinations you like?
Good luck

I look for:

Days since last run
Sex of horse
Price
Jockey

Simple formula that works. ;)

i like what you said in your post go4it. I like to get the form off a unrelated site to the tab, and then look at proces once ive decided on a horse. I think if you do it that way you cant be swayed into likeing a horse more or less, from what price it is offering on the tab.

I was surprised to see that many didn't mention days since last run, as surely that is a very real indication of race fitness, then maybe limiting that to 7,14 or 21, as that guarantees METRO run, (presuming we are looking at Saturday racing) of course that is b4 all the other stuff mentioned.

yeah your right partypooper, thats one that i forgot about. I remember someone posting on this site (i think it was sportz) saying some stupidly low percentage of horses won a 1400m + race with more than 35days between runs. its just off the top of my head, but it was along those lines

I think most posters covered that Party in 'besides the usual'..... It would take a book to put all the details of any decent handicapping method down.

For a profitable on going betting, I will also look and do what you guys has mention. I will go for pricing, then barrier, then jockey, then weight, then distant/track.

For the upcoming Epsom, I have Malcolm and Newton's Ring to chose from.

Base on pricing, I have cut down to :
DW, Malcolm, Johan's Toy, Regal Cheer, Newton's Ring and Polar Bear

Then barrier, no throw out.

Then jockey, I have :
DW, Malcolm (I believe should be Darren riding), JT and NR.

Then weight, I left with
M, JT and NR

Then track/distant form
M and NR

RTW could win but the odds is rediculous for an Epsom which always have upset.

For a lucky betting, I go for the race of the day, pick the number out of the hat and bet on them. Just like I won 11K on Runyon at 33-1!!!. I did actually pick 3 times of number 5 from the hat!!! I told myself, cannot be but well, Lee did it!!!

Matilda, can I get a pup out of that hat of yours :-)

Wow,,,guess what I just got!!! No 7!!! NR!!!

Again, make my feeling spin!!!

Hi Crash n others, and apologies if going a bit off topic
The above quote got me thinking, and have been meaning to ask this for a while. Now off the top I don’t do a lot of detailed form study (as I subscribe to a service) but I do still take an interest in it.

In the case of Saturday class open handicaps in Melbourne for example, an open handicap at Flemington has prizemoney of about $60k, while at the valley or sandown on a Saturday the same open handicap only has prizemoney of $45k.(roughly)
Do we make the assumption that the better money will entice better horses, and that you would take more of an interest at the Flemington race meets than the moonee valley meetings, just as an example??
Or is an open handicap always an open handicap irrespective of prizemoney? Any feedback/opinions appreciated.
Cheers
mug

Thanks mate, but I don't want to give too many secrets away. Picked the last three Melbourne Cups. Also note that this season Racing To Win has a pom pom. The pom pom is the mark of a true champion.

Cheers

Jeeez, you are meany Filante, just when I though I can get some secrets the easy way.
No matter, I will have to go through all the colours then.
Have a great week mate!

Well I don't have a system takes to much time for what I am able to put into it most of my analysis comes from what I see I blackbooked a couple from last weekend one in the race that Soloist won can't give to much away but if the odds are there at it's next start I'll be on it aslong as they put a decent jockey on.

apart from what I see I get the Best Bets and sometimes the Sportsman and sit down and go over the races I want to look at I usually look for a horse who is dropping in weight or meets a fancied horse in the race well off at the weights especially if it ran close to it sometime in it's last few races, A horse dropping in class regardless of the weight also especially if they look asthough they might be building to a win.

I don't normally like to see horses dropping more than 200m in distance from there last run unless they are 1st up or off atleast a 1 month freshen up would take alot for me to back a horse in those circumstances.

Half of my bets I build an opinion of a horse and look for odds for it when it steps out one that has been very good to me is My Ladys Chamber in Sydney it is always at awesome odds way way overs because noone rates the horse nor it's trainer they are the sort of horses I like to stick with the ones noone wants anything to do with cause it isn't trained by Hawkes, Freedman, Hayes or that toad Waterhouse.

I like to see 2 weeks between runs unless it is a horse that has shown it can backup quickly in the past and I also like to see a pattern which has developed in previous preps some horses perform well fresh and taper off quickly some hold there form and others need time to produce.

Nothing to far out of the ordinary anyway I wouldn't think.

The higher the money the better the horses overall. Just have a look at any form guide and average prize money of the runners. The average heads up with the prize money regadless of the class of race.

Does anyone here follow a black book stable approach for most of their serious bets and if so how do you find it compares to your [previous?] straight handicapping efforts?

Hi crash, i do write down a couple of horses a week for my black book, although i find they generally only perform best in the next run. If i follow them for a few runs, ill end up losing my money.

There goes NR with slight injury or doubt. The hat is off but 7 could represent the barrier which means I will go for M!!!

I also look for graduators.

There are lots of horses which perform well at the current class level, but they generally seem to be poor value.

I look for horses which have performed very well a class or two down and might be capable of graduating to the next level.
There apears to be better value in that area albeit a poorer strike rate.