When do you Bet?
 

My question out there to all is when do you bet?

I have just come off one of the best days of my punting career and have found that i tripled my profit due to punting away from the tab and when markets first opened on friday morning.

I am speaking about Wonderful World-Red Dazzler double and each horse individually. I placed with my mate colin (most will no who i refer to) on fri morning at the very juicy odds of 45-1. Sure enough they both come in and i'm laughing all the way to the bank. I got Red Dazzler at $6 and wonderful World at $7.50 and $2.50. Whilst i know i am spruiking these winners, some of the other winners one could have got was $2.50 on Miss Andretti, $8 Growl and i am pretty sure $4.50-$5 amerryking. That is massive overs compared to what you could have got on raceday.

Just wondering if others agree or not, and i know there are lot of things that happen between Fri Morning and when they jump and i have been burnt (scratchings refunded) a couple of times with the weather, but i have found the odds are so great early especially on the top couple in market it is too hard to ignore.

I personally do not bet that way... but it seems a fine way to me... One thing tho, is the betting all in? If it is, you would want far better odds than what is available on race day.. other than that, it seems like a great way to get best odds. The other thing, is what market % are you betting in to? While the odds you quote are good, (for your runners) obviously if the market is set to a high %, other favoured horses will be well unders.. as will the outsiders of the field... and the odds not so good

Cheers

No. Once the field has been decided, you get a refund if your horse is scratched.

$8 Growl great value,, quite obvious this horse was going to be well suported come race day. These are the types of races where you should be jumping nice and early especially when your top rater is rated on top clearly..

$2.50 Miss Andretti ,,i would have waited for this one..she was droping from 1400m so i would have been hoping this would turn the punters off her and on the LetGo Thomo ,Jack or Nedyims Glow...wasnt the case as she was obviously to classy for them..

I suppose you have to take into account if there might be a spruik horse that the moring tipsters have flogged to death,,,or if your horse is going to be that spruik horse and analyse the odds from there....

I get on nice and early for the big ones..La Montagna 26's Straddie,,,have ElSegundo 11's and 7's Cox,,but after last week im alittle worried about that one..

Usually on Saturdays we have 3 online accounts and the option on course as well,,,,this usually means we get the best odds available...but after looking at the odds you got last week you have me very interested in the Friday market...

TAB Sportsbet actually open up the markets on Thursday afternoons soon after acceptances. Even earlier, when they take early acceptances for the big group 1s as they did last week.

I agree that you can certainly get some good odds. My only problem is that it usually takes me until Saturday morning to work out what I like and by then, the value has gone.

That is plain theft. To be offering those odds on the Friday before is quite unbelievable!

I don't know if Growl has any chance in the Caufield Cup, but I got a future on him at 151-1 about 5 days ago. He is now at 7-1 after his good race.

Regards,

Glenn

He's certainly got a good chance alright. Don't know how he was 150-1!!! :eek:

I don't know if Growl has any chance in the Caufield Cup, but I got a future on him at 151-1 about 5 days ago. He is now at 7-1 after his good race.


10Oct06 10:23:17 AM
RACES GROWL
CAULFIELD Oct 21 2006 12:00AM 1.00 Futures Win @ 151.00


Am I misunderstanding it?



Regards,

Glenn

I'm not doubting you Glenn. I just don't know what the bookmakers were thinking putting him out at that price. Obviously, he had to win on Saturday to even get in the race, but considering his form, he shouldn't really have been any more than about 40 or 50-1. So you did very well.

I had a $25 free bet, so I spread it around on a few. Yes, I got lucky picking Growl, but I had seen him run before on my live video. Futures must be a great deal for the books; only one winner to pay off on.

Regards,

Glenn

I usually look at the odds available after acceptances come through on Thursdays. I only bet on Good tracks though, so sometimes I have to wait until Saturday to place my bets if I'm uncertain the track's conditions will be Good.

The past 2 Saturdays at Melbourne have been frustrating for me because in both cases the tracks started out as Dead tracks and were upgraded later in the day, which meant I was only able to place my bets Saturday afternoon after the odds available had really shrunk. This last Saturday was especially frustrating, considering they had already put 32mm (half of Melbourne's normal October rainfall) of water on the track during the week, and then added another 10mm on Friday! I wasn't sure the track would ever get upgraded to a Good track, so I missed out on some of the better odds that were available on Thursday. I still ended up with a healthy profit on Saturday, but it could have been oh so much better had I had the confidence that the track would have been rated Good, and placed my bets Thursday, or even Friday. Nature of the game I guess.

Yes, scratchings refunded.

I learn't of this a while back so i do my ratings as soon as fields are released late thursday using the weather report (even though they are rarily right) and get bets on 10.00 am Friday if i'm keen on something and the odds offered are "juicy". I have found doubles to pay best at this time as well.

Ignore those "dead" track conditions in Melbourne, SAS. It's a policy now down there to intentionally start with a dead track and upgrade it later on after the sun dries it out further. So, for the next month or so, if the official track reading for Melbourne is a dead 4, then just bet as if it's a good track, because basically it is.

I hear what you're saying Sportz, but this last Saturday it was cloudy with a few light showers drifting around and we were only heading for a maximum temperature of 20 or 21 (reached 22 in the end), so I thought there wasn't much chance of the track drying out.

Hi,

what sites do you use that allow you to bet so early.

S&S

The dry northerly winds we have had lately would leave you as dry as a wooden god !

And what a ludicrous policy it is, I'm about to boycott Melbourne racing unless the track starts Good. Forget the punters who generate the revenue, just listen to a couple of trainers. The track on Saturday was dead because they overwatered on the Friday (10mm) and the expected heat never came.
What ever happened to dealing with the elements?

I don't see them out there with squeegeez or rollers on Slow or Heavy tracks.

We may as well run racing indoors to make everyone happy.

BAH!

The track should never start worse than good due to watering - ever.

Why don't all the Perth horses break down with the fast tracks over there - it's all nonsense.

I know what you mean; Belmont Park(U.S.A.) continuously rates their track "fast" when horses are running in the wet and throwing mud on each other. Nonsense!

Regards,

Glenn

Are the Perth tracks all sand based?
If so, maybe there is a lesson there for the Eastern seaboard clubs.

So, what do you guys reckon will happen today at Caulfield? Once again, it is a Dead track as they have put another 15mm of water on the track since Saturday's races. They had another 1mm of rain on track overnight, and it's cloudy and 16 degrees right now. We're supposed to get up to 24 with a sunny afternoon. Do you think it'll get upgraded to a Good track once again in time for Thousand Guineas? Considering that I only bet on Good tracks, do you think I should I place my bets now hoping for a track upgrade by 3pm, or wait for the upgrade to happen to place my bets?

S&S

Looking like another ripping day, no real cloud cover to speak of from my vantage point (Level 40 in the CBD), wouldn't be too confident on an upgrade though... these types of days can stay relatively cool and the wind we have is not going help to dry the track...... my best estimation will be better side of Dead - but still rated Dead.......

For what it's worth.... :o

Good Call stix,

Track Upgrade 1 minute after the past the post in the first race.