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-   -   won last 2 starts (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=14865)

leroy 22nd October 2006 04:01 PM

won last 2 starts
 
hey Wesmip, can you test this please?

won last 2 starts
uni-tab rating 88-95 incusive

thanks
Leroy

wesmip1 22nd October 2006 07:04 PM

Leroy,

Never a problem to test something out.

Won last 2 starts and rating 88-95 gives a return of 70% for win and 77% for places over 2064 selections.

Won last 2 starts and rating>95 gives 86% for win and 91% for place over 3714 bets.

Won last 2 starts and rating=100 gives 90% for win and 93% for place over 1645 bets.


Hope that helps out.

Keep them coming ...


Also I wrote the code yesterday to grab radio tips so I have started getting them and should have them up to date this week. So if you want to include that in your method you can.



Good Luck

leroy 22nd October 2006 07:15 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
Leroy,

Never a problem to test something out.

Won last 2 starts and rating 88-95 gives a return of 70% for win and 77% for places over 2064 selections.

Won last 2 starts and rating>95 gives 86% for win and 91% for place over 3714 bets.

Won last 2 starts and rating=100 gives 90% for win and 93% for place over 1645 bets.


Hope that helps out.

Keep them coming ...


Also I wrote the code yesterday to grab radio tips so I have started getting them and should have them up to date this week. So if you want to include that in your method you can.



Good Luck
thanks woth trying.
Is it possible to add same distance as last start too ?
and maybe same track condition aswell ?
win and place.
And can you run it for won last 3 starts too please?
thanks again
Leroy

Bhagwan 23rd October 2006 07:43 AM

Hi W,
Could you please test what the SR % is for the 3 Radio tips 1st tip, 2nd tip, 3rd tip % individually if possible.
And possoibly thr ROI.
For distance exactly 1600m please.

Thanks very much.

wombathq 23rd October 2006 09:36 AM

Hi Wesmip Would you mind contacting me using email address listed below
Many thanks

go4it 23rd October 2006 12:20 PM

Wes,

Can you test this one please mate?

1)Last start beaten fav

2)Must be clear PP fav again

3)Must have finished within 3 lengths of winner last start

4)Must be racing within 15 days(inclusive)of last start

5)No distance change beyond 200mtrs up/down

Cheers

wesmip1 23rd October 2006 03:52 PM

Quote:
Is it possible to add same distance as last start too ?
and maybe same track condition aswell ?
win and place.
And can you run it for won last 3 starts too please?

Using last 2 starts both wins and rating = 100 as it gave better results in all cases.

Same Condition : Win returns 85%, place returns 93%
Same Distance : Win returns 83%, place returns 92%
Same Distance and Condition : Win returns 79%, place returns 94%

Using last 3 starts as all wins and rating = 100

Same Condition : Win returns 90%, place returns 101%
Same Distance : Win returns 97%, place returns 114%
Same Distance and Condition : Win returns 87%, place returns 120%

Good Luck.

wesmip1 23rd October 2006 03:56 PM

Quote:


Could you please test what the SR % is for the 3 Radio tips 1st tip, 2nd tip, 3rd tip % individually if possible.
And possoibly thr ROI.
For distance exactly 1600m please.


Bhagwan,

1600m for Radio Tips :
Radio Tip 1 : 27% SR - 86%ROI
Radio Tip 2 : 17% SR - 79% ROI
Radio Tip 3 : 13% SR - 73% ROI

I only have 674 radaio tips at this stage at that distance but I will have a lot more when I finish getting all the data, I will let you know if there is any major changes in SR or ROI.

Good Luck.

wesmip1 23rd October 2006 04:02 PM

Quote:
1)Last start beaten fav

2)Must be clear PP fav again

3)Must have finished within 3 lengths of winner last start

4)Must be racing within 15 days(inclusive)of last start

5)No distance change beyond 200mtrs up/down

Everything but PP fav again as I don't keep PP.

Returns 80% win and 85% place over 10101 bets.

leroy 23rd October 2006 04:21 PM

Thanks wes,

in regards to won last 3
100 raters
same distance and conditions
place return 120%
is that all field sizes or just those races with 3 divs?
if it's all field sizes, can you run it for those with a 3rd div please?
and what is the s/r and number of bets please?

Cheers
Leroy

wesmip1 23rd October 2006 06:58 PM

leroy,

That was all field sizes.

Using last 3 starts as all wins and rating = 100, Same Condition Same distance 8+ field

You get 31 Bets over 3 years for Win 92% , Place 117%

Using last 3 starts as all wins and rating = 100, Same Condition Same distance

You get 33 Bets over 3 years for Win 87% , Place 120%

So not many bets at all....

darkydog2002 23rd October 2006 07:33 PM

Cripes. That sounds like one of Norms systems.

Cheers.
darky.

wesmip1 23rd October 2006 08:11 PM

hey darky,

You seen the rules to "hidden gems" yet ?

Good Luck.

feather 23rd October 2006 08:12 PM

wesnip, are you able to check metro tracks only?

Bhagwan 23rd October 2006 10:02 PM

Thanks for doing that Wesmip.

Cheers.

go4it 24th October 2006 07:48 AM

Thanks Wes,

your'e a legend.

darkydog2002 24th October 2006 10:03 AM

WESMIP
 
Contact me if you wish.

Cheers.
darky.

wesmip1 24th October 2006 03:29 PM

feather,

I can test Saturdays Only - SR, BR, AR, MR if your interested. Its close enough to Metro tracks.

Good Luck.

DR RON 25th October 2006 07:42 AM

Hey wes, just a couple of questions regarding your neural info, do you find that the CRS points are alot more accurate for some tracks as against others? It would seem to me that if you find a horse with a poor record at a particular track , then you may as well ignore their CPand Cf figures as well even if they are quite high.The more I look at the neurals, the more I tend to think that you would really need to apply a different setting on a track by track and distance by distance basis, does your info tend to support my theory? I also think it is more relevent to use rankings rather than actual points. Also could you run through how to get past neural results thanks, I know it was on a thread somewherebut cant seem to find it>

feather 25th October 2006 02:20 PM

Hi Wesmip

thank you, and yes, I do understand now

Bhagwan 29th October 2006 05:02 PM

Hi Wesmip,
I was wondering if you could give the stats on the 3 RadioTAB selections for races with 9 & less runners.

Cheers

wesmip1 1st November 2006 08:20 PM

sorry haven't been around lately been busy with work and training.

I got a new PC and I am yet to transfer over my database. When I do I will get back to testing systems.

Hopefully I get a chance to copy this over this weekend.

Good Luck.

wesmip1 29th November 2006 07:19 PM

Quote:
I was wondering if you could give the stats on the 3 RadioTAB selections for races with 9 & less runners.

Radio Tip 1 : WIN SR 30%
Radio Tip 1 : WIN ROT 80%
Radio Tip 1 : PLACE SR 65%
Radio Tip 1 : PLACE ROT 87%

Radio Tip 2 : WIN SR 22%
Radio Tip 2 : WIN ROT 87%
Radio Tip 2 : PLACE SR 58%
Radio Tip 2 : PLACE ROT 90%

Radio Tip 3 : WIN SR 14%
Radio Tip 3 : WIN ROT 81%
Radio Tip 3 : PLACE SR 41%
Radio Tip 3 : PLACE ROT 83%

Hope that helps ....

wombathq 30th November 2006 11:24 AM

Hi Wes

could you please test this one for me
Must be in first 2 radio selections, be showing a unitab rating of 97 or more, be showing an improvement in it last 3 starts ie 953 with the last start being a 1st, 2nd or 3rd only, same track condition as last start, has a D and a C by its name same jockey as last start , a field of 8 to 11 runners and must be within 14 days of last start.
can you include total number of bets over ? period of time
Many thanks, hope all goes well with your wife and new arrival

wombathq 30th November 2006 12:26 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by wombathq
Hi Wes

could you please test this one for me
Must be in first 2 radio selections, be showing a unitab rating of 97 or more, be showing an improvement in it last 3 starts ie 953 with the last start being a 1st, 2nd or 3rd only, same track condition as last start, has a D and a C by its name same jockey as last start , a field of 8 to 11 runners and must be within 14 days of last start.
can you include total number of bets over ? period of time
Many thanks, hope all goes well with your wife and new arrival

Sorry that was meant to be a D OR a C

Bhagwan 5th December 2006 05:30 AM

Thanks for that Wesmip

darkydog2002 5th December 2006 09:42 AM

WESMIP
 
Doesn,t give you much faith in the tips does it?

Cheers.
darky

wesmip1 6th December 2006 06:02 AM

darky,

no it doesn't.

For those wanting systems tested I will get to it eventually but my wife just had a baby girl yesterday and things are still hectic.

Good Luck.

leroy 6th December 2006 07:43 AM

CONGRATS WES,
HOPE MUM AND BABY ARE BOTH WELL

LEROY

Merriguy 6th December 2006 11:12 AM

Break out the cigars, Wes. Congrats to you both!!

wombathq 14th December 2006 10:17 PM

Congrats wes, i hope mum and the baby are both doing well

cheers

pearcy 2nd January 2007 09:44 PM

Systems
 
Hi I wondered if any one had any good systems that I could try as I am disabled and I like to follow the Races as it passes the time for me

Thanks a lot


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