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The Guru Selections
Setting up this thread for all my selections and results. Feel free to lavish praise on me when I go well but go easy on me when I stuff up
 Thursday Selections Werribee Selections Race 2 7 TEPPISTA 6 SO VAGUELY 4 MR FRENCHMAN Race 3 4 IN NEED I AM 5 FAMILY JEWELS 3 WHITEHAVEN GIRL Race 6 4 LUMINARY 5 AUSSIE HUMOR 3 GALVANIC Race 7 5 SPECTRA BAY 4 VEREKER STREET 1 CASA DELL ORO Race 8 5 REDHILL 2 STAR OF KENTUCKY 3 TAYOSHI Wyong Selections Race 3 2 ENTER THE DRAGON 3 LORD VERDI 1 MIDNIGHT MARMALADE Race 5 1 TOLIVA 2 MELODYSSEY 4 CANADIAN TWILIGHT Race 6 3 CLANG FASHION 4 CARDGAMES 2 IMTOPS Race 9 9 KATIE KERFUFFLE 6 ONSCHULDIG 10 LADY OF HONOURS |
I'll be keeping a running tally of my selections. These are the results for the last two days (tips were in the "tips for scone" and "Wednesday Selections" threads).
ALL SELECTIONS Selections 66 Winners 18 All selections strike rate 27.27% Average Price $5.23 Gross return 94.2 All selections POT 42.73% TOP SELECTIONS Selections 26 Winners 11 Top Selections Strike rate 42.31% Average Price $3.35 Gross return 36.8 Top Selections POT 41.54% Note: The top selections are the selections that come first out of the three selections per race. They are the highest raters. If they are scratched then the next selection becomes the Top Selection and so on. |
GURU,
I don't know if you are arriving at your figures of over 40% POT on both your selection methods from a highly creative accounting method or you have a very generious bookie [?] When I saw your 40% plus POT result figures I was blown away! Below is a copy and paste of your "tips for Scone" and "Wednesday selections". The results below are uni tab prices as you didn't say which results you were using [?]. Please let me know because if your figures are correct, I want to use your bookmaker too! :-) Scone Tues. 14/11 Selections Race 1 1 15 MIDAS STAR 2 9 IMAGE DANCER 3 5 LOCHIE'S GOLD Race 2 1 1 BLACK REIGN 2 9 AFRICAN MIST 3 10 DUCHESS ZAFONIC 5.30w Race 3 1 8 WAY PAST MIDNIGHT 2 5 COERCIVE ACT 3 1 CRITICISM Race 4 1 1 BRYNNER 2 7 MEDIA PLANET 3 10 NOZZEDD Race 5 1 2 DRAVID 2 6 GION GEISHA 3 11 SHOWER UPON Race 6 1 7 CASTLING 2 9 CUXIANN 11.20w 3 3 DULCINA Race 7 1 2 SUSSMAN 2 6 DORER 3 10 JUNGLE ECHO Race 8 1 13 SIR COVET 6.10w 2 5 SUBREILLY 3 14 TENDER KISSES Race 9 1 8 LADY ENZED 5.70w 2 1 CHYNA SUCCESS 3 2 DROMOS Results for either betting method; On top: Outlay 9 units / return 11.80 /profit 2.80 All selections: Outlay 27 units / return 28.30 /profit 1.30 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Canterbury Wed. 15/11 Selections Race 1 1 DEARNESS 1.50w 3 CALALUNA 2 HERBATOME Race 2 2 ST ALESSIO 1 CASA DEL ROYALE 3 VANIDOSA 23.50w Race 3 2 REDNRICH 3 SAACHI 6 WISHYOUWEREMINE Race 4 6 SPINNER'S MAGIC 1.40w 7 CLANG FASHION 11 CARRY THE KING Race 5 3 CUTTING IN 9 WHAT A KASE 1 EMPEROR FU SAN 3.40w Race 7 1 RADETZKY MARCH 5 CENTRE FIRE 4 ANABATIK Results for either betting method: On top: Outlay 6 units / Return 2.90 / Loss 3.10 All selections: Outlay 18 units / Return 29.80 / profit 11.80 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bendigo 15/11 Selections Race 1 2 ROAD TO DUNDEE 1 SIPOWICZ 2.30w 4 STONEAGE ROMEO Race 2 4 BONNELLE 5 SHEEZA BONZA 1 BRIEF ALLIANCE Race 3 6 ALLENBY'S MATE 1 LONGSTREET 5.70 2 WELL RESEARCHED Race 6 9 TREMEZZO 5 THE BREAKER 3 CAVAGGIO Race 7 2 GALLIC 2.60w 1 DELVECCHIO 6 JUKEBOX JOHNNY Race 8 3 STICKPIN 1.60w 4 TWISTED TIMES 9 UNCLE WILLY Race 9 5 WALNUT CREEK 9 WHITE GOLD 2 LAUGHING POINT Race 10 8 MONESTE 5 WINNERSAREGRINNERS 4.90w 1 STAR OF KENTUCKY Results for either betting method On top: Outlay 8 units / Return 4.20 / Loss 3.80 All selections: Outlay 24 units / Return / 17.10 / Loss 6.90 --------------------------------------------------------------- Overall results for either betting method: On top: Outlay 23 units /Return 18.90/ Loss 4.10 All Selections: Outlay 69 units /Return 75.20 / Profit 6.20 [without the 23.50w longshot, there would have been a loss of 17.30]. ----------------------------------------------------------- |
G'day Crash,
That's fair enough to be skeptical mate. I should explain that because I base my selections on my ratings I don't bet on races where there are first starters. I did post selections for those races in the "tips for scone" thread but they don't go into my records and hence were not counted as part of my balance sheet. I did mention this in my blog site. I also don't bet every day but for the sake of testing my ratings and selection method I will post selections (and results) for every day and see how they hold up. When I do bet I NEVER bet on the TAB. With all due respect betting on the TAB (whether it be NSW TAB, unitab or supertab) is a mugs game. You are, more often than not, taking the worst price possible. I have several betting accounts. If I'm at home then I mainly use Betfair (can't beat betting to a tick over 100% market). If I have to go out for the day then I use best fluctuation with Centrebet or Sportingbet (on the days they offer bf). I have decided to use the same source for my results for consistency sake. I use the results from Racing and Sports. This is the link to the bendigo results.... racingandsports.com.au/racing/raceresultsonly.asp?storydate=15/11/2006&meetings=bdgo I'm fairly certain (correct me if I'm wrong) that the prices from these results are the final bookie prices. Some of those winners paid better on the other tabs than uni tab e.g. duchess zafonic ($6 nsw tab, $7 supertab), cuxiann ($12.30 nsw tab, $14.30 supertab), sir covet ($6.8 nsw tab, $7.30 supertab), lady enzed ($6.30 nswtab, $6.40 supertab). That's tips from scone, haven't checked the others. I should also add that their were scratchings so those bets in the ALL SELECTIONS results do not count to the outlay for obvious reasons. The scratchings also at times changed the TOP SELECTION to the second rated horse after the top rated horse was scratched. Sheeza Bonza and Winneraregrinners were second rated selections but they became TOP SELECTIONS when the top rated selections were scratched. I've posted the individual results from my blog site below. As you can see Lady Enzed actually pays worse with the final bookie dividend than any tab price. I'm sure the best fluc or betfair would have matched the tabs price at worst. No creative accounting going on here crash. I should have explained myself before posting selections and results. Hope this clears things up. It should be noted that these are results for two days and 40% POT is achieveable if you have a hot run. I'm sure that their will be an overcorrection in days to come and the POT will come down but as long as I stay in profit I'm happy. Which betting agencies do you bet with? Tuesday results Scone Results Race 5 1 2 DRAVID 3rd 2 6 GION GEISHA 7th 3 11 SHOWER UPON 8th Race 6 1 7 CASTLING 9th 2 9 CUXIANN WON $13 3 3 DULCINA 11th Race 7 1 2 SUSSMAN Scr 2 6 DORER 4th 3 10 JUNGLE ECHO Scr Race 8 1 13 SIR COVET WON $6.50 2 5 SUBREILLY 9th 3 14 TENDER KISSES Scr Race 9 1 8 LADY ENZED WON $4.80 2 1 CHYNA SUCCESS 3rd 3 2 DROMOS 5th Hamilton Results Race 1 1 #1 BEYOND PARADISE WON $2.50 2 #2 SUNGARRIN TANGO Scr 3 #3 ZETLAND 3rd Race 2 1 #2 PHANTOM FLIGHT 2nd 2 #1 FURIOUS DEE WON $4.60 3 #4 NOTHIN' BUT A STAR 4th Race 3 1 #1 BONNEY POINT WON $2.80 2 #6 GAY MILL 2nd 3 #4 SETEMUP 4th Race 5 1 #9 KIRI AT THE PALACE WON $2.50 2 #1 CLASSY DREW 3rd 3 #14 ROK MELODY 7th Race 6 1 #5 XSPARKX 6th 2 #7 TWENTY TO LIFE 4th 3 #3 IRKUTSK 2nd Race 7 1 #4 SNOWTORQUE Scr 2 #1 BOMBAY FLYER 6th 3 #2 DON HERNANDO 3rd Race 8 1 #3 GIVITWOMEY 3rd 2 #7 FEEL THE STING 2nd 3 #5 GARDEN CLOSE 5th Wednesday Results CANTERBURY RESULTS Race 1 1 DEARNESS WON $1.80 3 CALALUNA 2ND 2 HERBATOME 4TH Race 2 2 ST ALESSIO 3RD 1 CASA DEL ROYALE 2ND 3 VANIDOSA WON $21.00 Race 3 2 REDNRICH 3RD 3 SAACHI 11TH 6 WISHYOUWEREMINE WON $7.00 Race 4 6 SPINNER'S MAGIC WON $1.50 7 CLANG FASHION SCR 11 CARRY THE KING 7TH Race 5 3 CUTTING IN 10TH 9 WHAT A KASE 13TH 1 EMPEROR FU SAN WON $3.50 Race 7 1 RADETZKY MARCH 2ND 5 CENTRE FIRE 6TH 4 ANABATIK 8TH BENDIGO RESULTS Race 1 2 ROAD TO DUNDEE 2ND 1 SIPOWICZ WON $2.30 4 STONEAGE ROMEO SCR Race 2 4 BONNELLE SCR 5 SHEEZA BONZA WON $5.00 1 BRIEF ALLIANCE 2ND Race 3 6 ALLENBY'S MATE 3RD 1 LONGSTREET WON $6.00 2 WELL RESEARCHED 4TH Race 6 9 TREMEZZO 2ND 5 THE BREAKER 4TH 3 CAVAGGIO 7TH Race 7 2 GALLIC WON $2.80 1 DELVECCHIO 6TH 6 JUKEBOX JOHNNY SCR Race 8 3 STICKPIN (NZ) WON $1.70 4 TWISTED TIMES 4TH 9 UNCLE WILLY 5TH Race 9 5 WALNUT CREEK 4TH 9 WHITE GOLD 3RD 2 LAUGHING POINT SCR Race 10 8 MONESTE SCR 5 WINNERSAREGRINNERS WON $4.90 1 STAR OF KENTUCKY SCR |
Hi,
I just pointed out the [seeming] inconsistency because if your posting profit POTs etc., it's standard practice here to display any special conditions [not bet if...] and where your betting regarding your selections when posted and also showing results when claiming profits. Hindsight can be a wonderful thing for belated and obscure [not in your posts here] special condt. and pricing claims after the event. One thing about tipping on this site and that's as sure as the sun will go down, someone here will check your results ! Anyhow, good luck with it. I'm not sure that betting 3 horses per race though is such a good idea overall. 2 of your races you had winners in only had 4 runners in each race and the winners were odds-on. How about joining the 'sudden death' comp. ? cheers. |
Crash,
I really don't have anything to gain from inflating my results. I'm not that vain The selections and results are more of a way to gauge my ratings method. I'm just airing my dirty laundry (clean at the moment ) for the public to see rather than do it privately. It keeps me in check and provides accountability as well as offering the chance to get feedback.Thanks for the well wishes and I'm sure you (and other posters) will keep me in check if I do a mistake here and there. That's exactly what I'm after...a public aduit system I totally agree with you re not backing all three selections. I bet only the top selection and always "on the nose". I have considered the idea of backing more than one horse in a race on a consistent basis and the ALL SELECTION results is way for me to gauge the strength of my ratings and see whether it is worthwhile to bet on more than one horse. So in summing up; *my selections are based on my ratings and are in order with the highest rater on top. *I only bet on the Top Selection and will provide results for the Top Selections but will also gauge ALL Selection results. *Results are from the Racing and Sports website. *I will not replace scratchings with other selections (too much work for me) so if all three are scratched then it becomes a no bet race. If the Top rater is scratched then the next rated horse becomes the Top Selection. *I will only provide selections on races where every runner has had at least one race start. I think that's about it. Gee, the pressure is on to perform today |
I sincerely hope you do well in your punting mate.
|
Thanks Crash.
Today's results... Werribee Results Race 2 7 TEPPISTA WON $5.50 6 SO VAGUELY 4TH 4 MR FRENCHMAN 6TH Race 3 4 IN NEED I AM SCR 5 FAMILY JEWELS 5TH 3 WHITEHAVEN GIRL WON $3.30 Race 6 4 LUMINARY SCR 5 AUSSIE HUMOR WON $4.40 3 GALVANIC 4TH Race 7 5 SPECTRA BAY 4TH 4 VEREKER STREET 3RD 1 CASA DELL ORO WON $3.50 Race 8 5 REDHILL 7TH 2 STAR OF KENTUCKY 6TH 3 TAYOSHI 8TH Wyong Results Race 3 2 ENTER THE DRAGON 3RD 3 LORD VERDI 2ND 1 MIDNIGHT MARMALADE 7TH Race 5 1 TOLIVA WON $1.40 2 MELODYSSEY 4TH 4 CANADIAN TWILIGHT 5TH Race 6 3 CLANG FASHION 4TH 4 CARDGAMES WON $10.00 2 IMTOPS 7TH Race 9 9 KATIE KERFUFFLE 4TH 6 ONSCHULDIG 6TH 10 LADY OF HONOURS 9TH Balance sheet ALL SELECTIONS Selections 91 Winners 24 All selections strike rate 26.37% Average Price $5.10 Gross return 122.3 All selections POT 34.40% TOP SELECTIONS Selections 35 Winners 14 Top Selections Strike rate 40.00% Average Price $3.44 Gross return 48.1 Top Selections POT 37.43% |
Friday Selections....
Moonee Valley Race 3 9 ZANZIDIYM 6 SESARO ROAD 5 ANOTHERCAT Race 4 8 PUNCHELOT 2 SCENIC SILVER 7 ELYRAQ Race 5 3 FOUR POSTER 4 IL FAVORITO 7 GENERAL MACKJOSH Race 6 1 BENKO 7 HANDSOME IS 8 LADY LYN Race 7 5 WARSHAWSKY 9 EMILYDELAGO 1 TRIFOLD Port Macquarie Race 2 8 FIERY COMMAND 5 HELLO SUGAR 12 PARTY KEEPER Race 3 8 CANNY INSPIRE 4 GOLDIE'S PROSPECT 2 ADMIRAL HALSEY Race 4 3 ARCHGATE 7 ANGULAR 2 BE BRIEF Race 5 5 LUMIERE D'ETOILE 2 SO THE CAT SAID 6 TONDANO Race 6 1 IMPALA BULLET 3 FINE CHEVAL 5 MISTER LANE Race 7 1 FUJI STAR 3 JUNGLE ECHO 5 NATAL LAD Race 8 5 LADD 6 LIKE CHOCOLATE 8 ROSE GENERAL |
Here are the results so far.....Moonee Valley racing tonight.....all results and balance sheet will be posted later tonight.....(a few good quinellas there :) )
Port Macquarie Results Race 2 8 FIERY COMMAND WON $5.00 5 HELLO SUGAR 11TH 12 PARTY KEEPER 10TH Race 3 8 CANNY INSPIRE 10TH 4 GOLDIE'S PROSPECT 13TH 2 ADMIRAL HALSEY 9TH Race 4 3 ARCHGATE WON $8.50 (3,7 quinella paid $110 on nswtab) 7 ANGULAR 2ND 2 BE BRIEF 7TH Race 5 5 LUMIERE D'ETOILE 2ND 2 SO THE CAT SAID WON $3.20 (5,2 quinella paid $12.50 on nswtab) 6 TONDANO 7TH Race 6 1 IMPALA BULLET 7TH 3 FINE CHEVAL WON $4.40 (3,5 quin paid $56.50) 5 MISTER LANE 2ND Race 7 1 FUJI STAR 6TH 3 JUNGLE ECHO 2ND (3,5 quin paid $40.70) 5 NATAL LAD WON $10 Race 8 5 LADD 7th 6 LIKE CHOCOLATE 2ND 8 ROSE GENERAL 8th |
Today's Results
Port Macquarie Results Race 2 8 FIERY COMMAND WON $5.00 5 HELLO SUGAR 11TH 12 PARTY KEEPER 10TH Race 3 8 CANNY INSPIRE 10TH 4 GOLDIE'S PROSPECT 13TH 2 ADMIRAL HALSEY 9TH Race 4 3 ARCHGATE WON $8.50 (3,7 quinella paid $110 on nswtab) 7 ANGULAR 2ND 2 BE BRIEF 7TH Race 5 5 LUMIERE D'ETOILE 2ND 2 SO THE CAT SAID WON $3.20 (5,2 quinella paid $12.50 on nswtab) 6 TONDANO 7TH Race 6 1 IMPALA BULLET 7TH 3 FINE CHEVAL WON $4.40 (3,5 quin paid $56.50) 5 MISTER LANE 2ND Race 7 1 FUJI STAR 6TH 3 JUNGLE ECHO 2ND (3,5 quin paid $40.70) 5 NATAL LAD WON $10 Race 8 5 LADD 7th 6 LIKE CHOCOLATE 2ND 8 ROSE GENERAL 8th Moonee Valley Results Race 3 9 ZANZIDIYM 4th 6 SESARO ROAD WON $13 (paid $23 nsw tab) 5 ANOTHER CAT SCR Race 4 8 PUNCHELOT 11TH 2 SCENIC SILVER WON $3.30 7 ELYRAQ 3RD Race 5 3 FOUR POSTER WON $2.70 4 IL FAVORITO 8TH 7 GENERAL MACKJOSH 3RD Race 6 1 BENKO SCR 7 HANDSOME IS 10TH 8 LADY LYN 7TH Race 7 5 WARSHAWSKY UNPL 9 EMILYDELAGO 2ND 1 TRIFOLD UNPL BALANCE SHEET ALL SELECTIONS Selections 125 Winners 32 All selections strike rate 25.60% Average Price $5.39 Gross return 172.4 All selections POT 37.92% TOP SELECTIONS Selections 47 Winners 17 Top Selections Strike rate 36.17% Average Price $3.78 Gross return 64.3 Top Selections POT 36.81% |
Saturday Selections
Rosehill Race 1 1 SUPER SMUDGE 4 MARIENKIRCHE 3 MAYAGUANA Race 4 4 AMEN 2 TAKEN AT THE FLOOD 3 BREAK THE BARRIER Race 5 5 TIN PAN 1 FRITZ'S PRINCESS 3 FLYING ALPHA Race 6 11 FOR CRUYFF'S SAKE 3 COUPOLETTE 4 ONLY HE KNOWS Race 7 3 BERBER 1 FRIDAY CREEK 7 TURN THE TIDE Race 8 5 LETTER OF INTENT 2 DOUBLE DARE 4 HIGH PRIORITY Sandown Lakeside Race 1 6 ANAIS 3 LAURA'S CHARM 7 MILLIE ROSE Race 2 1 CATECHUCHU 3 SATIN ROBES 6 OH EIGHT HUNDRED Race 3 10 MALOOSE 1 MERLOT NOW 11 ARBITRATION Race 4 16 HARVARD 9 STRATA TITLE 8 JENNINGS Race 5 4 LET GO THOMMO 5 COCINERO 12 MEGADEAL Race 6 14 PERMAISCUOUS 15 FLAME OF SYDNEY 2 FIVEOCLOCKSHADOW Race 7 2 CASUAL PASS 12 BROM FELINITY 4 SHOW BARRY Race 8 3 ROCKFORD BAY 5 CARGO CULT 13 BIRD DANCER Race 9 15 BENKO 1 DOUBTING 2 PASIKATERA |
Seems we like alot of the same tomorrow,,
Good Luck :) |
I don't know about you Maverick but I had a shocker today :(
Not a good day for the ratings or the balance sheet (still in profit though, got to look on the bright side). Selections for Sunday will be done either late tonight or early tomorrow. Let's hope I can bounce back... Saturday Results Rosehill Race 1 1 SUPER SMUDGE 3RD 4 MARIENKIRCHE 5TH 3 MAYAGUANA WON $4.60 Race 4 4 AMEN WON $1.45 2 TAKEN AT THE FLOOD 2ND 3 BREAK THE BARRIER 6TH Race 5 5 TIN PAN 6TH 1 FRITZ'S PRINCESS 4TH 3 FLYING ALPHA 3RD Race 6 11 FOR CRUYFF'S SAKE 3RD 3 COUPOLETTE 4TH 4 ONLY HE KNOWS 11TH Race 7 3 BERBER 8TH 1 FRIDAY CREEK WON $2.00 7 TURN THE TIDE 5TH Race 8 5 LETTER OF INTENT 2ND 2 DOUBLE DARE SCR 4 HIGH PRIORITY 6TH Sandown Lakeside Race 1 6 ANAIS WON $2.80 3 LAURA'S CHARM 2ND 7 MILLIE ROSE 8TH Race 2 1 CATECHUCHU WON $2.50 3 SATIN ROBES 2ND 6 OH EIGHT HUNDRED 5TH Race 3 10 MALOOSE 2ND 1 MERLOT NOW 8TH 11 ARBITRATION WON $4.20 Race 4 16 HARVARD SCR 9 STRATA TITLE 6TH 8 JENNINGS WON $6.00 Race 5 4 LET GO THOMMO 2ND 5 COCINERO UNPL 12 MEGADEAL 3RD Race 6 14 PERMAISCUOUS 6TH 15 FLAME OF SYDNEY 2ND 2 FIVEOCLOCKSHADOW 9TH Race 7 2 CASUAL PASS 2ND 12 BROM FELINITY 6TH 4 SHOW BARRY 3RD Race 8 3 ROCKFORD BAY 6TH 5 CARGO CULT 3RD 13 BIRD DANCER 9TH Race 9 15 BENKO 11TH 1 DOUBTING 7TH 2 PASIKATERA 8TH BALANCE SHEET ALL SELECTIONS Selections 168 Winners 39 All selections strike rate 23.21% Average Price $5.02 Gross return 195.95 All selections POT 16.64% TOP SELECTIONS Selections 62 Winners 20 Top Selections Strike rate 32.26% Average Price $3.55 Gross return 71.05 Top Selections POT 14.60% |
Sunday Selections.
I'm off to drown my sorrows... Sunday Selections Newcastle Race 1 4 LARKSONG 2 REGAL CELEB 3 BILLY FORD Race 2 3 RED MONARCH 1 STELLA JOY 5 HEAD EM UP Race 3 7 NEOMENIUM 8 SHE'S NOT HOME 10 I BELONG Race 4 1 REDOUTE'S DANCER 3 CRYPTIC MISS 5 BIG NIGHT OUT Race 5 3 POLISH SYMPHONY 4 ARUNLUK 8 BOSNICH Race 7 1 VIVA EL REY 3 JET HAWK 6 TERCESA Ararat Race 1 5 TESTA ROCCA 12 AMATERASU 2 NOT ALARMED Race 4 7 FLEETING LOVE 1 BOB'NHOP 2 RUN BARRY RUN Race 5 4 SURE GEM 8 FEEDING FRENZY 3 BOWL ALONG Race 6 1 JONCETTO 3 SAMADJI 5 BURNING LIGHT Race 7 6 CREEK SIDE 11 FREE THE ROBBER 13 SPINNING RED Race 8 1 METHODICAL BOY 2 ALTO ADIGE 7 GYPSY BATTALIA Race 9 1 HUYPIRCART 10 YOUTHFUL HIGH 11 BUDDING PRODIGY |
The results took a bit of a battering over the weekend. Still in profit but only just keeping the head out of the water. I will continue with these selections and results until the end of the year, it could get a bit ugly :(
I'm surprised that the ALL SELECTIONS is out performing the TOP SELECTIONS. Here are yesterday's results. Selections for today will be done later this morning (almost finished the ratings). Sunday results Sunday Selections Newcastle Race 1 4 LARKSONG 3RD 2 REGAL CELEB 2ND 3 BILLY FORD WON $7.00 Race 2 3 RED MONARCH WON $2.20 1 STELLA JOY 4TH 5 HEAD EM UP 3RD Race 3 7 NEOMENIUM 6TH 8 SHE'S NOT HOME 2ND 10 I BELONG 5TH Race 4 1 REDOUTE'S DANCER WON $1.30 3 CRYPTIC MISS SCR 5 BIG NIGHT OUT 8TH Race 5 3 POLISH SYMPHONY 10TH 4 ARUNLUK WON $2.50 8 BOSNICH 7TH Race 7 1 VIVA EL REY WON $1.50 3 JET HAWK 2ND 6 TERCESA SCR Ararat Race 1 5 TESTA ROCCA 6TH 12 AMATERASU WON $4.00 2 NOT ALARMED 9TH Race 4 7 FLEETING LOVE 4TH 1 BOB'NHOP SCR 2 RUN BARRY RUN WON $3.00 Race 5 4 SURE GEM 6TH 8 FEEDING FRENZY 8TH 3 BOWL ALONG 7TH Race 6 1 JONCETTO 5TH 3 SAMADJI 4TH 5 BURNING LIGHT WON $7.00 Race 7 6 CREEK SIDE 7TH 11 FREE THE ROBBER 10TH 13 SPINNING RED 11TH Race 8 1 METHODICAL BOY 3RD 2 ALTO ADIGE 4TH 7 GYPSY BATTALIA 2ND Race 9 1 HUYPIRCART 2ND 10 YOUTHFUL HIGH 3RD 11 BUDDING PRODIGY 13TH BALANCE SHEET ALL SELECTIONS Selections 204 Winners 47 All selections strike rate 23.04% Average Price $4.78 Gross return 224.45 All selections POT 10.02% TOP SELECTIONS Selections 74 Winners 23 Top Selections Strike rate 31.08% Average Price $3.31 Gross return 76.05 Top Selections POT 2.77% |
Monday Selections
Kilmore Race 1 2 HUBCAT 1 DANZYLUM 4 GLASGOW JIM Race 2 6 CLAWING 4 TESTALUX 2 KINSMATE Race 3 6 SKETCHER 1 COSTA ZOOM 5 QUEEN MARY Race 5 4 YES YOUR HONOUR 1 DOIN'THEHARDYARDS 3 VALROSSI Race 6 5 RUSTIC FIRE 3 RUNAWAY DANGER 6 BRIDGE BREAKA Race 7 4 SURFWATCH 1 SUPER VISTA 7 SHERANI Race 8 1 TUSCAN WINGS 5 KLOKNBULL 4 GRACIOUS DANE Lismore Race 1 2 OUR ROYAL STAR 4 DOUBLE LINEAGE 3 STAR OF TIARNE Race 3 5 VISOR 6 ART STUDENT 3 RISING SUCCESS Race 4 1 DANMIRO 3 RIVER STREET 4 ALWAYS MORE Race 5 3 ANNIE SUE 8 FAIRSEA 6 GOORABEE Race 6 3 LOVE THE VIEW 4 LA BALADINE 2 SOCIAL GATHERING Race 7 4 GURU CHEIRON 1 LITTLE KIKI 10 SHE'S PRECOCIOUS Race 8 6 ETERNAL BELLE 4 PROMISED 10 LE SPEC |
Monday results
Results Kilmore Race 1 2 HUBCAT WON $1.70 1 DANZYLUM 3RD 4 GLASGOW JIM 2ND Race 2 6 CLAWING 3RD 4 TESTALUX WON $5.00 2 KINSMATE 5TH Race 3 6 SKETCHER 4TH 1 COSTA ZOOM 2ND 5 QUEEN MARY 5TH Race 5 4 YES YOUR HONOUR WON $2.60 1 DOIN'THEHARDYARDS 2ND 3 VALROSSI 5TH Race 6 5 RUSTIC FIRE UNPL 3 RUNAWAY DANGER UNPL 6 BRIDGE BREAKA UNPL Race 7 4 SURFWATCH WON $3.30 1 SUPER VISTA 2ND 7 SHERANI UNPL Race 8 1 TUSCAN WINGS 4TH 5 KLOKNBULL WON $3.50 4 GRACIOUS DANE UNPL Lismore Race 1 2 OUR ROYAL STAR 3RD 4 DOUBLE LINEAGE 5TH 3 STAR OF TIARNE 4TH Race 3 5 VISOR 6TH 6 ART STUDENT 9TH 3 RISING SUCCESS 5TH Race 4 1 DANMIRO 2ND 3 RIVER STREET WON $3.00 4 ALWAYS MORE 9TH Race 5 3 ANNIE SUE 9TH 8 FAIRSEA 4TH 6 GOORABEE 8TH Race 6 3 LOVE THE VIEW 2ND 4 LA BALADINE 11TH 2 SOCIAL GATHERING 8TH Race 7 4 GURU CHEIRON 2ND 1 LITTLE KIKI WON $4.00 10 SHE'S PRECOCIOUS UNPL Race 8 6 ETERNAL BELLE UNPL 4 PROMISED UNPL 10 LE SPEC UNPL BALANCE SHEET ALL SELECTIONS Selections 246 Winners 54 All selections strike rate 21.95% Average Price $4.58 Gross return 247.55 All selections POT 0.63% TOP SELECTIONS Selections 88 Winners 26 Top Selections Strike rate 29.55% Average Price $3.22 Gross return 83.65 Top Selections POT -4.94% |
Tuesday Selections
Moe Race 1 7 WIND AND WATER 6 POPPY BRIDGE 11 SYNDIBELLE Race 3 1 ANOTHERCAT 2 LUCKY RISE 3 ZWAHILLION Race 4 6 TRAPPY'S LAD 3 TITLE HOPE 4 ZDRAVO Race 5 6 UNCLE LENNY 13 LADIES DANCING 4 ON THE BLINK Race 6 6 HOAKS 10 OUR HEIGHTS 2 OUR RAPHAEL Race 7 2 SUNSET PLAZA 1 SCENIC FIND 7 GREAT REASON Tamworth Race 1 6 DONNACAN 1 EFFDEECABERNET 2 RICH ERIN Race 2 8 ERSILIA 12 CATBALL 2 SELKRIG Race 4 14 PUPPET ON A STRING 5 COSMICA 11 GION GEISHA Race 5 4 WARTIME 1 ALPHA MALE 3 MOCCARAIL Race 6 5 TOMBSTONE 1 LUNCH AT FRISCOS 2 SALTBUSH WILL Race 7 3 MIND THE MONEY 8 SUPER GINO 7 DON'T YOU KNOW Race 8 8 ANCIENT MARINER 7 INDUSTRIAL FAN 4 STRABO Race 9 2 SIMLA CHASE 3 FOXY PHIL 10 SIR KAROO |
I will give up on these ratings if the results reach a Loss on Turnover of 30% for either category or until the end of the year, whichever one comes first.....could be finished by next week by the look of things :(
Tuesday results Moe Race 1 7 WIND AND WATER WON $7.00 6 POPPY BRIDGE 5TH 11 SYNDIBELLE 3RD Race 3 1 ANOTHERCAT 2ND 2 LUCKY RISE WON $1.85 3 ZWAHILLION 3RD Race 4 6 TRAPPY'S LAD 4TH 3 TITLE HOPE 3RD 4 ZDRAVO WON $3.80 Race 5 6 UNCLE LENNY 4TH 13 LADIES DANCING 2ND 4 ON THE BLINK SCR Race 6 6 HOAKS 3RD 10 OUR HEIGHTS WON $6.00 2 OUR RAPHAEL SCR Race 7 2 SUNSET PLAZA 4TH 1 SCENIC FIND 8TH 7 GREAT REASON 5TH Tamworth Race 1 6 DONNACAN 3RD 1 EFFDEECABERNET SCR 2 RICH ERIN 2ND Race 2 8 ERSILIA 3RD 12 CATBALL 9TH 2 SELKRIG 4TH Race 4 14 PUPPET ON A STRING 6TH 5 COSMICA 7TH 11 GION GEISHA SCR Race 5 4 WARTIME WON $4.00 1 ALPHA MALE 2ND 3 MOCCARAIL 8TH Race 6 5 TOMBSTONE WON $3.30 1 LUNCH AT FRISCOS 4TH 2 SALTBUSH WILL SCR Race 7 3 MIND THE MONEY 4TH 8 SUPER GINO 7TH 7 DON'T YOU KNOW 11TH Race 8 8 ANCIENT MARINER 4TH 7 INDUSTRIAL FAN 5TH 4 STRABO 7TH Race 9 2 SIMLA CHASE 8TH 3 FOXY PHIL 2ND 10 SIR KAROO 12TH BALANCE SHEET ALL SELECTIONS Selections 283 Winners 60 All selections strike rate 21.20% Average Price $4.56 Gross return 273.5 All selections POT -3.36% TOP SELECTIONS Selections 102 Winners 29 Top Selections Strike rate 28.43% Average Price $3.38 Gross return 97.95 Top Selections POT -3.97% |
Wednesday Selections
Ballarat Race 3 2 AFFAIR OF HONOUR 5 PICNIC ON MARS 4 KELTWIG Race 4 2 HARVARD 8 BONNELLE 4 NUCLEAR ROO Race 5 6 CARRIGAN 10 JASMINS SECRET 12 DEFINATELY SO Race 6 2 RUBIJACK 5 FOR ME TO SEE 6 BURBERRY LANE Race 7 3 MR DANE 1 PRIDE OF WESTBURY 9 WINNERSAREGRINNERS Race 8 8 LANCETTIER 10 UTILITY 6 FOREST KNIGHT Race 9 2 JAYEMZED 4 COUNT TO ZERO 8 CLASSICARL Race 10 4 GENERAL BAYTON 5 STEPTOE 2 MESSAGE BANK Hawkesbury Race 2 7 KISS OFF 3 CHAUFUHR 1 GALILEO COLOURS Race 4 3 ALLEGRA 9 MEAD 8 MASLINS BEACH Race 6 3 MR BRAVEHEART 1 EZERICO 5 THEBOAB Race 7 6 SUNSET RUN 5 TRIPLE DEE 3 LANTWIN Race 8 8 TRUST ME HONEY 10 KADAZAN 5 SANTANA MAGIC |
Wednesday Results
Ballarat Race 3 2 AFFAIR OF HONOUR 3RD 5 PICNIC ON MARS 7TH 4 KELTWIG SCR Race 4 2 HARVARD WON $4.40 8 BONNELLE 2ND 4 NUCLEAR ROO 7TH Race 5 6 CARRIGAN 10TH 10 JASMINS SECRET SCR 12 DEFINATELY SO 2ND Race 6 2 RUBIJACK WON $2.40 5 FOR ME TO SEE 4TH 6 BURBERRY LANE 11TH Race 7 3 MR DANE SCR 1 PRIDE OF WESTBURY 3RD 9 WINNERSAREGRINNERS WON $2.30 Race 8 8 LANCETTIER 3RD 10 UTILITY SCR 6 FOREST KNIGHT 8TH Race 9 2 JAYEMZED SCR 4 COUNT TO ZERO WON $4.20 8 CLASSICARL 3RD Race 10 4 GENERAL BAYTON UNPL 5 STEPTOE UNPL 2 MESSAGE BANK WON $2.90 Hawkesbury Race 2 7 KISS OFF UNPL 3 CAUFUHR 3RD 1 GALILEO COLOURS WON $2.25 Race 4 3 ALLEGRA 2ND 9 MEAD WON $1.60 8 MASLINS BEACH 3RD Race 6 3 MR BRAVEHEART UNPL 1 EZERICO UNPL 5 THEBOAB UNPL Race 7 6 SUNSET RUN UNPL 5 TRIPLE DEE 2ND 3 LANTWIN WON $2.30 Race 8 8 TRUST ME HONEY 2ND 10 KADAZAN UNPL 5 SANTANA MAGIC UNPL BALANCE SHEET ALL SELECTIONS Selections 317 Winners 68 All selections strike rate 21.45% Average Price $4.35 Gross return 295.85 All selections POT -6.67% TOP SELECTIONS Selections 115 Winners 32 Top Selections Strike rate 27.83% Average Price $3.40 Gross return 108.95 Top Selections POT -5.26% |
Thursday Selections
Canterbury Race 1 2 SUSSMAN 6 THEN AGAIN 7 PRINCIPATUS Race 3 3 WARRING 6 SINUOUS 2 STRONG CHOICE Race 5 3 ANABATIK 7 FRENCH TYCOON 5 ABDICATION Race 6 7 REFEREES 6 CRIMSON GODDESS 3 FASHFIELD Race 7 4 TOR'S DANCER 6 RAHEIGHTS 1 CARA Y CRUZ Cranbourne Race 5 1 PAVORARCHI 6 HEAD PREFECT 4 ROUGH NIGHT Race 6 2 SHADOW 5 NO MORE RULES 4 SKI FOR KINGS Race 7 2 BABIJCZUK 3 PIETRO VANNUCCI 4 INCINERATOR Race 8 2 ESTERMATE 4 WALK UP START 1 PRESENCE Race 9 1 IZZA MONO 3 CENT OF A DANE 5 MELETE |
You did well The Guru, but in my humble opinion you were attempting the impossible.
It is not possible for top three selections to show an overall profit long term based on tote odds. It is not possible for top selections to show an overall profit long term based on tote odds. If for example you had the ability to price your top selections then you may have achieved a profit. But taking any tote odds offered to you about each top selection means you were attempting the impossible if the aim was to make a long term profit. To only be down 5% or so on turnover was a great effort. |
I appreciate your feedback Mr Logic. Thank you.
The aim of these selections was to test a set of ratings that I had been working on and to do it in a public forum (for feedback and a public audit system in case I did a mistake with the results). I believe that if I'm going to test something then give it the full blown treatment. If it stands up to "final bookie price" (I wasn't using tote odds, although at times they were better!!) then the ratings are in for some further investigation. If these ratings show a profit with lousy odds then all I need to improve the bottom line is to go out shopping for the best odds. I have been flat out lately so I have to put these selections on hold for the time being. I will continue with them in the new year (especially if there is interest here). |
G'day all,
Been out of action for a while, life takes you in different directions sometimes. Just popping in to say I'm back but not to do these ratings as done previously i.e every race, every day. I will be posting only TOP SELECTIONS i.e top rated runners and I won't be able to do the ratings everyday so it will be a littel haphazard but I still want to test these ratings so I'll persist whenever I have some free time. Will post tomorrow's selections later... Cheers |
Taree Top Raters
Race 1 Rohirrim Race 2 Up Until Now Race 3 Marozia Race 4 Nuclear Strike Race 5 Igotthelastone Race 6 Ultra Magic Race 7 Pimpala Diamond Race 8 Starman |
Well it has been awhile but I'm back :)
Looking at Swan Hill tomorrow. It looks a good day's racing for day one of Swan Hill's three day carnival with good sized fields and the 473 metre straight should allow all horses to have their chance if they are good enough. There's a few runners we are interested in tomorrow, (depending of course on price): - R3. Mega Star Milly seemingly, is coming off stronger form lines than her rivals. She has been competitive in all her races to date and with barrier 7 and Brad Rawiller on board she gets plenty of ticks. The prospect of a firmer track and back to 1200m also appear in her favour. We are looking for $3.50 or better. R5. Mookatmee couldn't have been more impressive last start, coming from the rear of the field to win his maiden comfortably at Ballarat, beating Swirly Dream by 1.5L. Swirly Dream, although still a maiden, has proven competitive in much stronger races. The only real query is whether Mookatmee is just as good on top of the ground, but we were sufficiently impressed last start, to give him the benefit of the doubt here. The surface query may help us get our price of $3.50 or better. R8. Royal Ida is the class horse in this race and a proven weight carrier. Some of these, (especially the claiming horses), get in pretty light by comparison, but Royal Ida has given away plenty of weight to better rivals in the past and the first up run on his less preferred (slow) surface over 1000m at the Valley was good enough to demonstrate that he is in for another good preparation. The step up to 1200 metres and also a good track are both pluses. Plenty of pace in this race which should set things up for Royal Ida to come swooping down the long Swan Hill straight. Anything better than $4.00 is acceptable to us here. R10. Knockout was less than a length from Skiddaw Peak, Blitzem Riley and Trick Of Light at Sale over the 1600m last prep. His last start on a heavy track at Mornington in a C4 was also full of merit. We think he is the best bet of the day here, stepping up to the mile for the first time this prep, and back to a firmer track which we also think he prefers. The inside barrier is not ideal as he likes to get back in his races, but at least he'll get a soft run in transit from that draw and the Swan Hill straight should give him sufficient time to get out and run over the top of his rivals. His best form is a few classes better than anything he meets here and we are interested in anything better than $4.00, which should be on. Best tomorrow is in the last - Knockout. Good luck all. |
I am keen on a few around the country today.
There is no time for detailed explanations but here is my selections and minimum prices. Eagle Farm R5. Fritz's Princess at $4.50 Flemington R5. Beaming at $3.50 Flemington R7. Live In Vain at $4.00 Swan Hill R5. Dhuragoon at $3.00 For those interested in my thoughts on the feature race today, The Stradbroke, I like two at generous odds:- Snipers Bullet and Pinnacles at $10+ My best bet for today - Live In Vain |
Moonee Valley
R4 - Two formlines here with plenty coming from the Sylvan Courtrace and Fuji Fantasy coming off a C6 metro win. Out of the Sylvan Court race I thought the winner was good and the runner up Power of Love was unlucky. It's arguable to say which one was the better run when you consider that Power of Love was held up but had the gun run on the rail whereas Sylvan Court sat three wide from about the 500m and kicked on to win. Power of Love meets Sylvan Court 1.5kg better at the weights but Sylvan Court has more scope for improvement and tends to race handier. Fuji Fantasy was very good last start when sitting three wide midfield and proving too strong for Raeburn with a good space to third. Fuji Fantasy met Sylvan Court two start back with the points going to Slyvan Court by 0.4L and Fuji Fantasy meets Sylvan Court 1kg better at the weights. Barrier one and Childs on Fuji Fantasy are two big advantages as he can sit her closer than usual without doing much work. Leaning towards Fuji Fantasy. R5 - I'm leaning to Electrostatic. First time on the track but looks suitable with the short straight. The extra give on this track seems to her liking as well. Her run two starts back was very good when she resumed after a 63 day let up, set a strong tempo, kicked 3-4L clear in the straight and was run down late by backmarkers Amberino and Hanna Rossa over 1300m. Amberino franked that form winning next start. R6 - Kaphero even with the big weight. Mortlake R5 - The up and comer Boss it's Over will be hard to beat with 52kg. The old Airstream could have given him 5kg but he is short of his best. Starzando looks the danger, much better on good tracks and will be hard to run down over 1300m. Has a 3L fifth to Blitz'em Riley over 1400m to his credit. Murray Bridge R7 - Rockford Bay and Satara met last start in the Mildura Cup finishing 1L second and 1.2L third respectively. Rockford Bay was dissapointing first up after two trial wins but blinkers on switched him on last start. Good effort by Satara to drop 300m in distance and get so close, he was closing late so the step up to the mile looks perfect. He put togeather two wins and his last start third since the blinkers came off three starts back. A win and a second from two starts at this tricky track. Leaning to Satara. |
Glad to see you back, Guru. And thanks for the tips. Well done over the last few days.
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Thanks Merriguy.
I had a good one today. I ended up backing Sylvan Court when Fuji Fantasy was scratched and Satara was a nice way to finish the day. More winners to come (hopefully:) ) |
Geelong Thorough Track.
R1 - Bidgee Barney was unlucky over his only try at this trip four runs back in a Midweek 0MW. He missed the jump last start and run was okay considering it was over a mile on a heavy track after a 43 day freshen. Jockey didn't push him over the final 100m and the run can be forgiven. At his best he would be too good and I'm guessing he will. Looking for $2.50. R2 - Swirly Dream is the best horse in the race IMO, and last run was good. Babington looks the only real danger. Need $3.00 R3 - Barachetta was good last start in a 2200m maiden running a close second with a good gap to third. Notable that the trainer put this bloke in some 3yo Listed races as well as the VRC Derby. I liked the way Taste Test hit the line last start at his second race start. Barachetta is proven over the trip so happy to stick with him. Looking for $3.50 R5 - Gay Mill finished 2.4L fourth to the smart Joyeuse before its spell then was supported in betting but failed. A possible forgive run as it was on a slow track. Prepared to forgive that run based on the support. I liked the way Who's Ya Missus hit the line after racing wide on debut. The step up to 1300m looks ideal. Opting for Gay Mill but need $5 to play. R6. I Have Dolphin Tycoon on top here and on last effort looks ready to win. Respect Record who is having first go at synthetic, I assume because he doesn’t like the wet. Only won 1 race, but has been competitive against better opposition than his and worth a speculator at 10 or better as he might just improve sharply. Has ability. Dolphin Tycoon $4.50, Record - $10+ R7. Passing Salute is a synthetic (Geelong) specialist, and unbeaten at two goes here. Fairly keen. Need $5.00 Best: Bidgee Barney, Passing Salute, Swirly Dream. |
Gay mill was a nice little money spinner.
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Well done (again), Guru. Only one of those mentioned didn't make a place!! --- and two at $16.70 and $8.50.
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Cheers Merri and Tevez
A very nice day indeed. Gay Mill and Record were nice as was the Dolphin Tycoon/Record quinella  Sounds like you got on some of them Merri, good to hear. |
Only one for today.
I don't normally like to bet on heavy tracks (or slow tracks for that matter) but I might have a bet on Mr Sargood in the last at Ballarat. He handles the heavy so first hurdle is covered. Very good run last start in C6 company when he jumped from a wide gate and was wide the whole trip. He had no right to finish 5L 4th on the run he had. Up in weight but down in class and he is well drawn in barrier 2. Looking for $4. |
MV R4 - Going with Behold on the short back up. He has backed up twice previously (4 and 5 days) and won both times. Sylvan Court has been in good form but that has been racing against her own sex. Williams is on Johnny Knoxville who won well two starts back and goes well at the Valley. Behold beat JK easily last start and meets him 2kg better. $4.00
MV R5 - Just Curious was very impressive in her last start win. She has raced on a 7 day back up once prior which was an unlucky second to Manna Miss. Perfect Feeling is working towards a win and the mile is her pet distance. $3.50 Benalla R3 - Diamond Jed ran 1.6L third to Kariba Kariba and 1.8L second to Roughnut last prep. Good effort first up when he stuck on well to finish 0.7L third. Fitness seemed to give out late. $4 R7 - Go My Girl went well on debut finishing a close second over 1450m on a slow track. By Archway so wet track should be fine. Well drawn. $4 R8 - Bismuth has had two goes at the mile for an unlucky (wide the trip) 4.2L fourth to the heavily backed The Russeler (won by about 3L) last start and a 2.4L fourth to Arclase, All Ready Got It and Prominent!! Any one of those would be long odds on in this. Well drawn and did run 1.8L second to Miss Maren on a slow track so wet track no concern. $2.50 Best: Bismuth |
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