G6 Plan
 

Here is what I call my G6 System.

This is not a selection system nor is it a staking plan.

This is an attempt to devise a method to get through long losing runs.

My idea is to see if an ideal number “divisor” can be found to reduce bank loses for any strike rate.

Everybody has their own way of making their selections and preferences for staking plans.

A problem in common to most punters if not all, is the inevitable long losing run.

A loss recovery plan is part of my idea not everybody’s cuppa, but, each to his own.

There has been lots of work in this area before and I’m sure mine won’t be the last.



Anyway, here’s how it goes.

I use groups of 6 runners to win X and recover loses.

6 losses terminate a group or a win when it happens.

Whatever is lost on a losing group of 6 is left behind.

This cut off is necessary.

Start new group.

The original plan was to find:

1. Ideal number of bets to put together to get through the long losing runs without stretching the bank too much. 6 seems to be the ideal number for this set of results.

2. To see if anything could get near the Level Stakes ideal and to make the same profit.

I ran the 2 ideas side by side on the same sheet.

Would like to pursue this for a while, any help with the science bit, ROI SR LSP etc would be really appreciated.

Does anyone know if there is a spreadsheet around that will do this automatically?

Had a stroke a few years ago and not able for that kind of calc anymore, think the old brain got crisped round the edges that time.

All help, comments and advice are welcome.

G 6 Plan
 

Here is the G 6 Plan in Excel, there are 945 rows.

Novice Punter

Staking idea
If a winner is struck regardless of price , restart at the beginning.

Try & target runners paying $3.20+ otherwise its a no bet race if the selection is not there. Let it win without your money.

Don't chase the value , let it come to you.

1 1 2 2 3 3 = 12
av O/L $2 per race.
You may notice that this is also the median figure.

Have 9 banks of 12 units = 108
Allows for 54 bets.

Punting aint easy , epecially if one accepts short prices consistantly.

A method of selection that has its good days.

1st & 2nd TAB FAV PLAN
Target the 1st & 2nd TAB Favs at 0 jump time.
These win on average 45% of the time.

The selection of the 2 Favs is the one with the shortest PLACE Div at 0 jump time,
If a draw , No-bet. (This is rare)
Bet it for a Win.

One will find that stuff still changes after that time. Thats OK, its part of the process.

One will find that it works in real time, but not after the event is over.
So going over past results is a waste of time because every thing is then balanced out to reflect the actual , which ends up showing the Fav after the 90 sec loop of time for all the figures from around the country become formatted.

So I repeat, dont wast ones time looking at the actual results after the event, because most times that is not what was actually being shown at the time of selection at 0 jump time .

One will be surprised at some of the value divs struck using this method.

give it a dry run before betting any real money.

Cheers.

G 6 Plan
 

Hi Bhagwan

Thank you for responding to my post.

First off, have to copy your post into word and save it, have to read things a million times these days to get the plan.

Then I will try your staking idea along side level stakes and the 6 idea to see if more profit can be got.

Just at first reading the losses of the 6 plan would be reduced by a fair bit with a higher return also.

I have seen this type of staking in many of the posts on this site, apart from tests on a short run of bets I have never tried it over a long set of results.

I hear what you say about value, one of the rules in my selection plan is, and there are a few, odds on no bet.

Don’t have named selections, just race type and odds etc.

Evens or better is ok with me, its just a medium to, get on, relying on the group of 6 idea to control the out of control situation that can happen when using a recovery type staking plan.

I’m going to get it in the neck for saying that, but I have tried for a long to formulate a plan that was easy to use and suited my way of doing things, and the pocket.

It is a bit aggressive, loss recovery will always is considered so, but it’s a compromise on some of my other ideas.


Thank you for taking the time

Regards

Kevin

Novice Punter

Hi Novice Punter,
Your Most Welcome.
With the mentioned staking plan, one can target $2.00 horses for the first 3 bets e.g. 1 1 2 , if one must bet them its the last 3 bets that needs the value so show a profit.

An alternatve to the staking idea is to repeat that bet if the odds are not high enough to show a profit.

Either way , there is not much damage done because it is capped at 12 units max , before restarting.

One would have killed it yesterday with that selection idea.

Cheers.

Hi Novice,
Heres a staking plan you might like to check out against ones past selections
It might work well.


LADDER STAKING PLAN.
These are all geared for a run of 60 races to produce a $2.00+ profit .
One keeps betting up the ladder win ,loose or draw until $2.00 in front , then start from the beginning.
The idea is to start again as soon as $2+ profit of bank is acheived.
e.g. $330 bank , $2+ profit needed before restarting .
If one reaches bet No.60 one does not proceed any further , either start with a new bank or give up punting forever.

e.g. 111111 222222 333333 444444 555555 ect.stopping at
10 10 10 10 10 10 keep going along the ladder, regardless of result, until it is forced into profit

1x6 example.
e.g. 1L,1L,1L, 1Xw2.00, 1L,1L,2L, 2Xw2.50, 2L, 2Xw3.00, 2L,2L, 3Xw3.90
O/L 21.00
Ret 24.70
Prof +$3.70 = +18% POT

Level stakes at $2.00 a bet
O/L 26.00
Ret 22.80
Loss -3.20 = -14% LOT


$-- Lots of 6
1--6
2--6
3--6
4--6
5--6
6--6
7--6
8--6
9--6
10--6
Bank needed $330
Last bet No.60 needed odds to break even 33/1
or several winners totaling these odds at the end process.


Cheers.

G 6 Plan
 

Hi Bhagwan

Plenty of food for thought there.

Very informative and encouraging, appreciated.

I will try your first plan over the excel sheet first, will take a few days.

I think its going to be hard to come up with a staking plan to suit average odds over 40 bets of approximately 15/8, my selections are going to be short priced and that cant be avoided.

Its the simplest selection plan that im able to work “on the run”.

There are not too many selections each day and this helps too, of course this time of year on this side of our planet the weather takes its toll.

Will get back soon with result of test.


Kevin

Novice Punter

G 6 Plan
 

Hi Bhagwan

Quicker than I thought.

Here is the updated sheet, along the 112233 plan I have also put in an idea I was trying last year.

What is the easiest way to calculate ROI / SR / POT ETC, not things I know much about.


Kevin

Novice Punter

Hi Novice,
This is the way I do it .

Net Profit calculation
(also known as P/L)
Write down the total Gross Returns (this means the total Ret including the bet amnt before net profit is calculated) e.g. $240

Write down the total Outlays e.g. $200

Take one away from the other e.g. $240-200= +$40 Net Profit & that will be ones P/L (profit /loss)

POT calculation.
Divide the above Net Profit figure into the total Outlay figure
e.g. +40/200 = 20% POT (profit on turnover)

If it was a Loss say -10/200 = -5% LOT (loss on turnover)

It makes it easy to compare statergys once everything is converted to percentages.

SR calculation
Divide the number of winners by the total number of bets
e.g. 50 wins / 167 bets = 30% SR (strike rate)

ROI calculation
(Gross Return on Investment) in this case it is the Gross Ret
e.g. $240 / 200 = 120% ROI (before net is caculated).
Take away 120% -100% = 20% POT (net profit)

Personally I dont use ROI calculation, I have shown it here because you requested it.

I use SR percentages & POT percentages only.

Average Dividend is caculated by dividing the No. of winners into the Gross $ Ret amount e.g. 50 wins / $240 = $4.80 av div.

Once you have worked out your SR, I will be able to give you an approximation of what the longest run of outs one should encounter at some stage & it will happen , no matter how good a plan is.
We need to know this, so we can create a stratergy in advance so when it happens , we wont be caught off guard.

Cheers.

G 6 Plan
 

Hi Bhagwan

Thanks for that very detailed explanation.

I always thought the day would come when I would regret all the time spent fishing instead of going to school, at my age now it was a safe assumption but today is that day.

Awesome stuff there, a bit complicated for me but I can get someone to go through it with me.

Will get back soon.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Very kind of you to take the time to help out another like that, Bhagwan. Good on you!

The old progressive staking plan Chestnut [turning lead into gold]. Just remember the maths: If your selection method makes a loss betting flat stakes, it'll make an even bigger loss with ANY progressive staking plan because they all increase both profit AND loss.

It's better to try to make a profit betting flat stakes with your selection process first before considering any progressive staking plan. If that fails, try to improve your selection method rather than lose even more money on staking plan 'Alchemy'.


-----------------------------------
No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... -- Probability and Measure (page 94, second edition) by Patrick Billingsley

-----------------------------------
'The number of 'guaranteed' betting (staking) systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamcis'.

-- The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein
---------------------------------

G 6 Plan
 

Hi shoto,

May I say, if the members of this forum are a fair representation of Australian Society then I really would love to live there, the members here have been very helpful and courteous, believe me I know the difference having posted my ideas in other forums.

There is an old saying class will always come out on top.

I totally agree with you about Bhagwan, and if he doesn’t mind me saying, I believe he is a highly respected and valued member of this community.

I have read most of his posts and would recommend that beginners and improvers like myself to do the same.

I would like nothing better than talk racing all day with you guys and have a few long necks in the cooler, sounds like heaven to me.

Regards to All


Kevin


Novice Punter

G 6 Plan
 

Hi crash,

Thank you for them words of wisdom, they can never be said often enough or loud enough.

I will be posting the results of my system/plan soon and with that information hopefully we can improve on things.


Kevin


Novice Punter

I agree entirely with Crash on this one.

If the goal is to turn a negative expectation into a positive outcome, then a staking plan will merely temporarily "hide" your losses. This can be dangerous to the punter who is unaware of this fact and has false confidence in the future outcome of his strategy.

A staking plan will "eventually" magnify an existing profit or loss.

However, if the goal is to get through a long run of losses, knowing that the betting method is sound, then there is no better method than level stakes in my opinion.

Concentrating on the strategy itself rather than the amount staked will reap far greater rewards in the longrun. If a long run of losses occurs, it is likely that the profit from the strategy comes from one or two longshots overall and the likelihood of this repeating before you bust your bank is minimal and risky, therefore throwing more money at such a plan on false hope is dangerous play.

Thanks Shoto,
For your kind words.



Cheers.

G 6 Plan
 

Hi Chrome Prince,

Thank you for your comment takes a bit of reading to see the point and I totally agree with you.

I personally don’t believe Level Stakes is a realistic betting system unless your bank is in the thousands, but I do agree that it’s the yardstick by which all other plans have to be measured.

Will be posting stats for my plan and with levels in a while, hope we can talk more then.


Kevin

Novice Punter

G 6 Plan
 

Hi Bhagwan

Here goes the moment of truth, I have never gone into this kind of detail before.

Not sure what it all means yet but thanks to you I can now do these calculations myself.

Level Stakes

POT
5.69%

SR
38.77%

ROI
105.69%

AV Div
6.35


G 6 Plan

POT
5.7828%

SR
38.771

ROI
105.78

Av Div
2.72839


Hope these make sense.


Kevin

Novice Punter

The Ten Commandments of Gambling
---------------------------------------------------

1. Thou shalt honor thy gambling debts.

2. Thou shalt expect to lose.

3. Thou shalt trust the odds, not hunches.

4. Thou shalt not over-bet thy bankroll.

5. Thou shalt not believe in betting systems.

6. Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.

7. Thou shalt covet good rules.

8. Thou shalt not make side bets.

9. Thou shalt have good gambling etiquette.

10. Thou shalt tip [ the waiter :-) ].

See 'The Wizard of Odds' regarding staking plans etc.
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

Novice Punter,
Your figures will make more sense if we know how many bets you are talking about [?]

Hi Novice,
Heres another angle one may like to check out.

Its called betting to price & is considered by many as a better way to place ones bets as opposed to level stakes betting.

The idea is to have a base takeout amount e.g. $10, one then divides the dividend into that amount.
e.g. $10/$3.20 = $3.00 bet
e.g. $10/2.10 = $5.00 bet

It is said that it keeps the bets in perspective based on the fact more shorter pricess horse win than longer priced horses.

An alternative to this is that one increases the base amount by 10% after each loss.
e.g. 10 11 12 13 14 15 ect
One repeats the base takeout amount if a winner is struck but still not in profit.

Maybe its an idea not to go past 15 so as to fit in with your G6 stratergy.

Cheers.

G 6 Plan
 

Sorry Crash

944 Total Bets

366 Win

Kevin


Novice Punter

Kevin, If you have won over that No. of bets, then over that number of bets you managed to have the odds [on average over the number of bets] in your favour through either luck or masterful selections of actual overlays. No other reason.


For anyone interested, they might like to have a read.

See: 'Progression Betting'
and....
'Mathematical Proof That Progressions Cannot Overcome Expectation' [f you have the head for the maths involved].

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/progress.htm

G 6 Plan
 

Hi Crash,

Thanks for your comment, but like you said you need the head for that kind of reading.

Had a quick look, and no disrespect to yourself, it’s the usual slating of any type of betting other than Level Staking, proven by mathematicians and fair play to them, but as we know betting is not a very high scientific act and punters are not mathematicians no disrespect intended to them/us.

So therefore their findings have no relevance to any punter who does not believe in flat betting, in my opinion.

I respect peoples rights to be different and to write about it even if it was a hundred years ago, but as I said before each to his own.

With regard to luck or masterful selections, the selections pick themselves, I don’t know what they will be until just before the off.

With Respect

Kevin

Novice Punter

Novice

Just done a quick Chi-test on the figures you supplied. If they are accurate I'd be dropping the "Novice" tag if I was you. On those figures there is virtually no chance that your success is due to luck. In my experience this is very, very unusual in gambling.

Keen to see some of your selections posted pre-race

Pixie.

Me too !
-------------------------

Kevin,

The laws maths work regardless whether we understand them. If they can be ignored [oh, and they often are], that won't change the outcomes. 2+2 = 4 regardless and staking systems don't work either. There are many possible staking paths [millions of variations] but if you have a 2% disadvantage, eventually you will make 2% loss regardless. Vi-a-vis applies of course too.

If someone could get around the laws of maths [put them aside or say 'I don't understand them so they don't apply to me'] and make progressive staking somehow turn a loss at flat stake betting into a profit, every Casino in the World would have went broke long ago!

G 6 Plan
 

Hi AngryPixie,

Thank you for them words of encouragement, too old to be anything other than a novice now but thanks for the thought.

Lots of hard work and patience makes your luck, im sure you will agree.

With regard to selections I am only certain there is one just before the off, the system and rules are based on off prices and other conditions.

Not much use for posting I know.

I have heard of Chi-test before somewhere but don’t know how it is used.

Kevin

Novice Punter

G 6 Plan
 

Hi Crash,

With respect you are still not allowing for the ingenuity of the punter.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Well Kevin, if you have a progressive staking system that can turn loss into profit, you are wasting your talents in Horse Racing. Hit the Casino's and clean up big time [the house take is less than Horse Racing on most games and there is an almost bottomless pit of money to be won]!

Google for "matharchie". 0dd5 are you'll find it.

Put the resulting probability into Excel like this

=1-CHIDIST(probability,1)

You should end with a figure between 0 and 100%. Generally anything over 95% is considered significant. That is only 5% of the result can be attributed to luck.

You can naturally do the whole thing in Excel but the page you should turn up offers a very neat explanation if your interested in learning without all the stats mumbo-jumbo.

I used 148.88 as your expected winners given your level stakes AvSP of 6.35. Your second SP figure of 2.72839 would probably have been more realistic. What you really need is the sum of all the chances over the series of bets. The figure I used above does give you a ludicrous advantage of 146%.

Pixie

Hi all, haven't posted for a long time but have been reading with interest this thread as I think it highlights the different thoughts on staking (most important).

I actually wanted to hear what Bhagwan had to say about the "nay sayers" of progression staking as he appears to be the king of the staking plans.

Secondly Bhagwan do you think it is possible for a progression plan to be formulated for a method where your selections are striking around 12-13% but paying $8.00 on average. Level stakes about even, but a progression plan with that low a strike rate would run up a big run of outs.

While we are quoting texts, "There is no such thing as a successful level stake gambling system." - The Elements of Throughbred Racing, Joseph Keating.

So who is right? One thing is for sure - Winners are grinners no matter what the method or plan.

Sorry, of course you'll only get a figure between 0 and 100% if you format the cell as a percentage. Otherwise you get a number between 0 and 1. Same diff though. ops:

Mr Keating either

a) Hadn't been able to restrain himself from loss chasing
b) Never found a system.
c) Never asked around.

It's being done everyday.

OR

He meant that a gambling system is when the overall odds are against you - negative POT

Top Rank,

Nowhere does Bhagwan say progressive staking will turn losing flat stakes betting into a winning betting system. If your a winning punter, well various progressive staking systems offer some variety. That said, there are those that believe progressive staking will do what's mathematically impossible: turn bad odds into good odds, because that's what they truly WANT to believe and ************ the maths [I do that with my bank balance ... I believe it's a $million, but my bank manager just can't see past the reality of the maths]!

These people are of the same ilk that belong to the Flat Earth Society, or who jump off tall buildings convinced they can fly [because not understanding the laws of gravity, they believe they don't apply to them].

Thanks for the tip champ.

use bet fair u losers

Another QUOTE:

Ladder staking plans can turn a negative level stakes result into a positive. Even if there is a -30% LOT. Bhagwan 23rd Sept. 2006 at 11.37am in the thread headed Ladder Staking Plans.

Food for thought.

G 6 Plan
 

Hi AngryPixie,

Certainly have an other look there now that I have an idea of what its about, found that site a while ago and seen all them numbers and things, I clicked that little x, you know the one at top right.

Seriously though, I am concerned about “The figure I used above does give you a ludicrous advantage of 146%”. I have no doubt that your analysis of the figures supplied is correct, Im just worried that I may made an error in my calculations. Have to double check.

Kevin

Novice Punter

G 6 Plan
 

Hi All,

Really interesting the different ideas being discussed here, I would like to ask a general question about staking.

We all know and understand Level Stakes, just put 1 Point on every selection never ending.

My question is this:

Define the difference between Progressive Staking a Stake Recovery.

Is there a difference or not ?.

Kevin

Novice Punter

I've had a look at the latest Excel shreadsheet you attached. It was a bit peculiar but using the figures you've supplied I get the following:

Observed
===
Bets 944
Wins 386
S/R 40.88%

Expected
===
Bets 944
Wins 348.74
S/R 36.94%

This gives you a Yate's Corrected Chi score of 6.14, which converts to around a 98.68% chance that your performance is due to some factor other than luck. Given your high number of bets I'd say this was significant.

Your advantage is 10.84%. Your level stakes ROI is 6.15%. Your average SP for all bets is 2.86 (34.96%)

I'll send you the bill. Greenbacks only thanks

Pixie

PS: How did you do that spreadsheet? Not by hand I hope. I couldn't find one formula in it.