assumption
 

is that this place is so quiet these days because most who have posted here over the years are that busy turning a quid now we have that wonderful new toy to "play" with called bf?

In my case yes, Stugots.
I no longer do form or look for winning methods that limit my betting.
I am just doing the numbers and don't have time to do anything else between four countries of racing.

For myself, I'd rather have 1,000 bets a week with 30% POT than 2 bets, it all comes down to turnover, but more importantly steady consistent returns.

Here, here!

I should add to my reply, that it's not all beer and skittles....

Getting set at a good price is very difficult with some guys offering just silly lay odds about horses. How they carve a profit out of it, I just don't know.
When you regularly offer 6/1 about a 3/1, the balance has to go backwards.

I've also made some very bad blunders along the way.

Not to mention lack of sleep!

thats the side of the market i have been having a bit of success with crome, & yes there are some (many) around that want to lay at any old price, forcing me to either offer a similar generosity or pass on the race, with the latter the usual option

frustrating but with a truck load of patience there’s still plenty of opportunities presenting themselves

stugots,

That is oh so true!
I have been taking advantage of both sides with some success also.
When these guys offer silly odds, I just reverse my strategy when the over gets to a certain level.

Chrome, your posts over the last couple of days have really got me thinking. Do you think it's possible (I certainly do) to trade, say the first 2 in the market so as to put yourself in a a postion where you've been able to lay them both at evens. A final position of as low as an even $10 on both, over 100 races per week would certainly add up. I'm thinking along the lines of 30% of favs winning, & 25% of 2nd favs winning. This would give you 55 races where you break even and 45 races where you win $19. (after commission). 45 x $19 per week is not to be sneezed at. Your thoughts would be appreciated.

Mark,

I certainly think it's able to be done on paper, but in reality it might be different. I don't know for sure because at this point I'm turning over as much as possible to get my commision down. I've just stuck to a set formula without investigating too much further.

For example: I had an absolute ripper of a method which returned phenomenal figures on spreadsheet, the only hurdle was getting set at the prices. The ones I couldn't get set on to lay, lost, and the one's I could easily get set on won!

Now over time (enough turnover) it did return positive profit, but very small compared to the paper figures.

The point is that it would need to be trialled in real time even with the minimum bet size to see if it stacks up. My feeling is that there would be lots of times where you could get the right price on one and on the other you'd have to compromise the profit.

Mathematically it would work though.

Once things settle down a little (i'm wagering on all races bar the USA everyday) I plan to run a few ideas to see if they can augment what I'm doing.

It's a real pity that Australia has no historical data to work with apart from the last price traded, as that is no indication at all. An example is in the UK I have got set on a horse to lay it at $3.25, but it closed at $6.00 as the final lay price.

It seems that most layers are targeting arbitrage methods around the favorites. Might there not be something in going a bit wider like 3rd. to 5th. favorites and seeking a higher arbitrage percentage?

No reason why not Crash. I think the key is to latch on to the runner which drifts or firms the most. Be nice to know which one that was going to be.

I think you'd have to pick your races though. The 4/1 the field type race maybe where you've got a higher chance trading outside the top two in the market. Thoughts?

I seldom trade though. I'm really just thinking aloud.

Well I've decide to stop stuffing around and open a Betfair account on Friday. Time to finally dive in and check the action.

I think the best method for me might be to just do what I normally do and back my own handicapped selections for the win at the best price I can get.

Later on when I'm more used to the site and have a better idea of how thing are, I might try laying some horses that I've handicapped to lose and back them to win as well for a smaller amount so I'm not too exposed. I'll leave arbitrage betting to much later if If I think that style of betting suits.

Any advice is most welcome.

Crash

Welcome aboard. Let us know after you make the first "newbies" mistake. The most common one I think is to select the wrong side of the market so you end up laying instead of backing. It's worth having the "Verify Bets" box ticked until you get used to it.

Pixie

Thanks for that advice mate and Oh, I'm sure I'll make plenty of 'newbie' mistakes [I'll keep my bets small to start with]. Still, at my age it'll be nice to feel like a virgin again!

Good luck with it crash, also be aware it is very easy to select the wrong market (place instead of win) they are directly underneath eachother and it's easy for the mouse to slip.

There's no doubt when you first start comparing and looking at BF odds, you'll think it's money for jam. You'll also become aware that the better odds you get, the more they lose, the worst over you get, will win - in the scheme of things.

Betfair market is far more accurate than any other betting medium.

Just yesterday, I had a bit of fun backing the worst prices I could get on horses and laying those that blew in the market. Often the prices were just above or worse than TAB prices.

I made a very nice return for the day ;)

Another tip, you have to manually refresh your balance by clicking the icon, it won't auto refresh.
And also there are two "wallets"
You have to transfer money to your AUS wallet to bet on our racing. Hit the transfer button and input the amount, it will happen within a few seconds.

I've just finished opening an account Chrome. The 'wallets' had me thinking 'Oh great, put money in and I can't bet on Oz races!'. I finally worked out the 'transfer' business.
Now I can't download the form I need to complete and send away to be able to withdraw money [typical]. All I get is a blank page and no form download[?]

For my betting setup I could use the Brake's PC which is next to mine and have it on the Stab site prices and mine on Betfair so I can compare prices live. Is that a worthwhile setup or a waste of time?

This will be fun, Crash....especially when you start to try the lay side. Enjoy...and good luck.

No need for the two computers. Racing and Sports have "Live Odds" for all the TABs and Betfair ---- and its free!

There's nothing like being a "Born Again Virgin"


I think it's worthwhile. I have been doing the same thing but with different windows in the Avant browser instead of different monitors. Think you were an Avant fan at one stage.

There is also the Betfair Advantage Tool which does something kinda similar. It's a download on the Betfair site.

Or the "Liveodds" beta on the Racing and Sports site. It's a bit buggy though.

Pix

I still use Avant browser which is the best and fastest browser around as far as I'm concerned.

Derrrrrrrr [brain cells coming to life], I guess I can also use 2 windows in my Avant.

All a bit weird.
Looked at 2 races [3 and 5 at Sandown] and lousy odds on offer. Everyone seems to be trying to lay maybe[?]

R3 Bowhunter $11.20 Stab / Betfair $8
r5 Prince Juene $5.90 Stab / Betfair $4

I watched Bowhunter go $9 then $2 then $8 [?]

Had a couple of $6 bets on each just to kick off. What the hell.

Well that was lucky. First blood to me on Betfair with Bowhunter home at $8 [paid $8.30w Stab]. I'm happy with $8w but should have had $50 on it !

Most of the action is in the last few minutes just like the other markets. Generally up until then the Betfair prices are much worse than on the tote. A rule of thumb I use is that if you can get on at a price that looks pretty similar to the Tote prices early in the betting, your probably looking at a runner that is going to be a big drifter. Although this is just an observation. I've not tested it.

Thanks for that tip. I was like a lost little lamb, but at least I took some Layer's money :-)

Crash,

I suggest you download the Betfair Advantage Tool.

It claims that Bowhunter at jump was backable at $10.50 and paid over 20% better than all TABs.

In this instance you probably would have been better off offering to back it at (say) $11.50. Rather than paying the virgin tax.

Chances are for a longshot like that you would have been hit.

If not then you could always negotiate a bit down as a last resort.

Will get the Advantage download.

I don't think these Layers can Handicap from a decent form guide. Bowhunter at $10.50? They are insane.
I jumped on at an early $8 because I thought it would go down to about $4 !

Well, one man's trash is another man's treasure I guess. Nice job.

Howdy Crash,
Good to hear you're a convert. Soon enough you'll forget all about the TAB's and wonder where this service has been all your life, LOL.

As for your questions, personally i prefer to use the bookies fixed price markets as a comparison, as the tote can often be difficult to judge with all the jumping around. Plus you know that should the tote be displaying a large overlay to the bookies market, plenty o' moola will be acomin'. Similarly, Bowhunter (Col Tidy + IAS) opened at 8's and 7's respectively, drifted to 9's before shortening to close at 8's. Under this arrangment you might set a price of 10's on betfair and should things move against you, take the 9's with the bookie etc etc. Certainly should you see $10.50, you would be inclined to have a nibble. Just my preference, but seems to work. (EDIT: I should add that the above would apply to the more fancied runners).

Oh and don't forget to include a 5% premium in your betfair prices to compensate for the commission.

Wait till you start trading the FTSE Intra's in the Financial's.

crash,

You'll notice some very strange prices on Betfair.
In some instances you can make a killing, others you'll wonder why bother with Betfair at all.
It's about picking and choosing I guess.
Also you have to allow that you are going from a big percentage takeout to a slim one. Therefore prices will generally be over what you expect.
Within this though are movements that can definitely be taken advantage of (including early markets).

Thanks for all the info. from everyone. Hopefully I can fill a few jam jars [little ones to start with].

Id be interested to know how to do that? I can see no options on Betfair to set a price I want to back at [?]

Just select the blue square, say it said $8.50, then adjust the price upwards to $9 or $10 with the little arrows and submit the bet. It gets listed in the market for someone to take (in this case it would show up on the lay side and vice versa).

You'll get the hang of things crash.

I managed to jag $14 on Bowhunter.
Backed it at 11.0, and laid some off at 9.4.

Some advice I can offer is to open options, and tick the top 4 boxes.
This gives you the chance to see exactly what will happen if your bets are accepted.

Thanks Mad and Mark,
It's those little things taken for granted and forgotten about by the experienced that leaves the newbies scratching their head.

Gees Mark, $14 !
Well I guess I should be happy enough that I ended up with a decent profit on my first day.

Translating Mark's enigmatic claim.

Say you:

Back @11.0 for $100
Lay @9.40 for $65

Then you effectively:

Back @13.97 for $35

I confess I had to resort to a spreadsheet to deduce that.

Not bad jfc, but with a Betfair a/c, no spreadsheet is necessary.

Actual bets were $80 @ 11.0, and $60 @ 9.40, which gives a nett position of $281.20/$20, or odds of 14.06.

Just one of the many variations available on BF.

Coincidentally I just tried Betfair's what-if option.

It includes unplaced bets in the calculations, so anyone here can select a market and try out these calculations.

Obviously if you accidentally place the unplaced bets there could be dire consequences.

For the record if you "unplace" $20 @ 14.0 it will show $260/$20 (before commission), so your $280/$20 is decimal odds of 15.0.

In the interests of not confusing newcomers.

I'm thinking of moving to the U.K.
Yet another odds on favourite goes down in a 4 four horse field.
That makes in the last three days only one horse that won @$1.20.
All the rest were profit!

When you listen to the pre race commentary, it seems obvious why they are going down.

Long live the Queen :D

I'll try and get together some figures in the next few days.

37 winners from the last 68 odds on favourites I layed.
This looks apparently within the range, but most of these were not around $1.90, they were less than $1.50.

Chrome,

Agreed --- but I would think that pretty much the same applies here. Simplest was close enough to odds on at the jump in the first at Ballarat. And it seems to happen all the time :)