The Daily Donkey
 

How long's this been going on?

Google it and enjoy.

I'm picking up some nice profits here. I'm using the Betfair Reduction Factor (BRF) as a price guide. I'm giving Maria Staking a go, and using her nothing over $11 rule.

See what you think.

Pixie

Excellent night with the Donkey
 

Just off to get some sleep. Bot can take over from here.

6 lays for 6 losers so far this morning in the UK.

Sweet dreams

Pixie

That should say layed horses in 6 races for a collect in each.

Overnight the bot and I layed 13 of The Daily Donkeys lay recommendations for 13 losers. A lovely 100% strike rate. I've been a bit selective with their tips and I'll write a brief overview of my method before Monday nights UK meetings. I'm taking the weekend off from the UK.

I wonder though, considering their published results claim to have turned 100 into 2779 in the last two days whether I should just lay the lot. From observation some of the SP's they publish aren't available on Betfair so beware here, but on the whole I can't believe they're giving this stuff away for nothing and wish I'd discovered them a couple of years ago and not just this week.

I'm tempting the axe on this thread I think but here goes anyway.

w w w dot dailydonkey dot com

Interested in your thoughts

Pixie

Interesting site, Pixie. I think I remember going to it in the dim distant past --- probably before the idea of laying on B/F had come into being.

If my figures are correct, there were 24 picks last night, of which 4 won. (I layed two of them and managed to pick one of the winners, of course.) Your 13/24 was great. I, for one, look forwrd to reading your ideas on selection when you get around to writing something about them. And would you say something about the "Bots". Personally I haven't a clue about them!!

In my reading of Maria's thread she does say that her staking plan suits what she was doing there; but does not necessarily trans fer to any selection process. Worth thinking about?!?!

Good luck this weekend.

Hi Merriguy

Yes I don't think Maria Staking is aggresive enough for these selections. Will look at using my normal fixed liability staking I think.

Have a good one.

Pix

Though they are giving results as to a fixed outlay (100). I note they do not take on any double figure odds.

I'd be expecting a correction soon...
 

So the Donkey team are 4368 up after 3 days! Correction looming I think. Have a look at where they were at this time in January 2007.

If they keep going at this rate they're in for a bumper month but... on only 4 occassions since 2004 have they posted a monthly return of more than 10,000.

Maybe being a bit selective is the way to go afterall.

Pixie

Sunday 4th March
 

I'm not having a go with the Donkey tonight. If I was I'd be trying to lay the following at less than or equal to the prices indicated.

Time Selection SP
0150 Heavy Weather <=3.55
0250 Sharp Jack <=3.90
0250 Haggle Twins <=3.05
0250 Mage d'Extruval <=4.80
0320 Royal Paradise <=4.70
0420 Tinarana Lord <=4.40
0420 Lifes A Flyer <=6.60

Good luck. I'm sure it'll all fall in a heap now

As suspected a small heap formed.

Good night to have off, Pixie :). Unfortunately you picked the only two that won -- and two winners out of seven is pretty fatal in this laying game.


I managed three losers (winners) out of three; but guesswork not science, I'm afraid.

Still think that there must be a way to profit from their suggestions.

I believe most of the winners were wearing snorkels it was that wet!

I reckon there's a couple of ways of tackling this:

1) Lay each selection for a fixed stake and ride the troughs and peaks. They post their results this way.




2) Use the reduction factor (or other PP market) as a guide to place each selection in one of the three "Maria" price bands and then vary the stake accordingly. I've been doing this but have been ignoring those that fall into the 3.50 or below band, and haven't worried if a selection moves into another band during betting. Hopefully the troughs won't be quite as big, and the peaks will stay the same.

NB: If using the reduction factor as a guide, be aware that it can change during the betting.

Either way, getting the lowest possible SP is key, this is where the "Auto-Betfair" tool comes in as it gives us the ability to place our lays at a particular time. I'm sure there's other (better) tools that do the same thing but this one came to hand easily.

From observation (not exhaustive) you get close to the best SP as follows. Anybody more familiar with the UK markets please chip in here.

1) If it looks like your selection will start favourite (generally the top listed runner) then place the lay just before the jump.




2) If not the favourite, place the lay 7-10 minutes before the jump.

I'll carry on using the selective approach for a while as see what happens. I'm only using "little" money at this stage.

Thanks, Pixie, for your thoughts. Being a bit slow on the uptake :) it will take me a while to get my head around what you have said.


It is worth looking at their results 'proofed' to 'Racing Index' --- a very common resource on the web which I am sure you would know; if not Google it.

I keep thinking of Maria's 'need' for results in the mid-80s% for success.

Cheers

Monday 5th March
 

Ok let's have another go. Looks like Betfair aren't fielding at Hereford so those Donkey tips are automatically out. Instead of quoting prices we'll have a go at quoting times when the lay should be placed. We'll tell "Auto-Betfair" to take any price up to $11 inclusive. We're ignoring any selection with a Reduction Factor greater than 28.5% as at 21:30 AEST.

Race Time - Name (Lay Time)
===========================
01:30 - Zelos (01:23)
01:30 - Miss Saafend Plaza (01:23)
01:50 - Strike Force (01:49)
02:00 - Blackmail (01:53)
02:30 - The Fisio (02:29)
03:20 - Ever Cheerful (03:19)
03:30 - Chimes At Midnight (03:23)
03:50 - Luxurix (03:43)

Have a good one

Last minute lays
 

Doh! I thought those Daily Donkeys were up a bit early. Just noticed a whole lot more including ones I've missed. This is going to end badly I can tell.

Anyway here's the remainder

Race Time - Name (Lay Time)
===========================
02:30 - Cosmic Destiny (02:23)
02:50 - Supercast (02:49)
03:00 - Danetime Lord (02:59)
03:20 - Devon Flame (03:13)
03:50 - Aquatic Gamble (03:49)
04:00 - Earl Kraul (03:53)
04:00 - Saucy (03:59)
04:20 - Ballyshane Spirit (04:13)

Cross your fingers

This isn't fun anymore.
 

I've just killed the Donkey. No more for me. Rest of the lays cancelled whilst I'm only a little bit down overall.

I'm sure there's a valuable lesson to be had here, it's just not springing to mind at present.

Your on your own Merriguy

Valuable lesson 1: 95% of punters lose!

Or... always look a gift Donkey in the mouth.

The whole night turned into a shambles after I completely missed half the selections. At that point I knew I was going to be punished.

I've never been comfortable following somebody elses tips. You just can't have the same degree of confidence. Fortunately the whole episode has only cost many hours of sleep and $43.

Gave me some good ideas for the "bot" I hope to develop.

Word of caution. Anybody considering following the Donkey should be aware that their published SP's just don't exist in reality.

12/16 of your lays would have been winners --- but, of course, that means 4/16 came in as winners (losers for the layer!). 25%.

Their picks also "won" 25% (7/28). Overall they won on the day using their system --- but the win was only $27. One can hardly expect a big win every day, and according to their figures they are still up $4670 this month (on $100 stakes). You said yourself (in Post #7):

"So the Donkey team are 4368 up after 3 days! Correction looming I think."

Can anything come from this?

There may be a way...
 

Merri

I think if you followed all the selections long term you'd probably just break even. It's just not possible to get the prices they quote, so your starting from behind.

A secondary filter may be your friend. I've an idea and I'll post those tonight but will not be investing.

The UK markets intrigue me. Even though I'm a tiny $46 down on the Donkey lays, overall I'm up as I've been trading various horses between races.

Stay tuned

AP,

Have you considered this...

Just putting a price cutoff of $11.00 means you can be laying up to $11.00 on a $4.00 shot. You have to lose in that scenario.
What you need to achieve is unders, if not always, most of the time.

If I were to use the Daily Donkey, I would look up the Racing Post prepost and rule out anything over $11.00 prepost.

Then deduct 20% off the prepost price.

Don't worry about all the one's you miss out on or don't get matched on, the one's that do will more than compensate.

Having said that, I would concentrate on first or second favourites, because it's very hard to get matched under the odds on horses @ 10/1, but it does happen.

Chrome

Your absolutely right here, and this is of course how I approach my AUS lays and I'm doing really nicely there.

I can see the attraction of trading on the UK markets now although I don't think I'd be too comfortable letting a bot pull the trigger for me when the big money is down, and I'm getting a bit long in the tooth (and I've a day job) to be staying up till the wee hours.

The Donkey is really just an amusement for me and it takes the drudgery out of churning the lays on the Aussie markets. I've really not put too much effort into a strategy and to come out $46 down by making it up as I go along is probably not too bad.

Merriguy if your listening have a fiddle with different pricing scenario's on the Racing-Index site. If your prepared to be pretty selective ie. 2/1 or less you you can make the figures look a little better.

March 6th 2007
 

I know, I know, but the intellectual challenge has got the best of me. To this end I've put in some effort (relatively speaking anyway) and have come up with a very selective, but hopefully profitable method of getting the most out of the Donkey.

I'll divide the selections into "Best" and "Others". The "Others" category will give you more action but you'll lose a few more too.

These are LAYS ok. Don't BACK them.


Best
Time Name [Racecourse]
13:30 Neptune Joly [Newcastle]
13:30 Flake [Newcastle]
14:00 Green Ideal [Newcastle]
14:30 Alfabet Souk [Newcastle]
15:30 Crackadee [Newcastle]

Others
Time Name [Racecourse]
13:00 Wolds Way [Newcastle]
14:30 In Dream's [Newcastle]
15:00 Minster Abbi [Newcastle]
16:00 Oshkosh [Newcastle]

You could go one step further and use Chromes suggestion of laying to prices. You can work those out though ;)

Have a good one

Here's a golden suggestion ;)

Take the Racing Post prepost market.

Lay any horse which is 20% or greater less than the prepost price after allowing reduction for any scratchings.
(You can set this up in some programs).

Results March 6th
 

Ok. So that didn't go as badly as it could have. By being selective we've managed to finish only 0.5 units down on what was a shocking day for the Daily Donkey tips.

Let's aim to return a better POT than we would if we'd layed every one of the Donkeys. I'll be using the SP's from the Daily Donkey's published results. I'm not too fussed about the strike rate. The aim here is quality over quantity.

Best
Time Name [Racecourse]
13:30 Neptune Joly [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
13:30 Flake [Newcastle] ... WON -4.50
14:00 Green Ideal [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
14:30 Alfabet Souk [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
15:30 Crackadee [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00

Best Results March 6th 2007 - March 6th 2007

Pixie Units Out: 5.00
Pixie Units In: -0.50
Pixie POT: -10.00%

Donkey Units Out: 28.00
Donkey Units In: -8.98
Donkey POT: -32.07%


======
I'm not going to be counting the "Others" category but will continue to provide it for a few more days - more to convince myself to leave those behind than for any other reason.

Others
Time Name [Racecourse]
13:00 Wolds Way [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
14:30 In Dream's [Newcastle] ... WON -4.00
15:00 Minster Abbi [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
16:00 Oshkosh [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00

Tonights lays to follow.

March 7th
 

Ok. Times are listed in (GMT+11.00) tonight. :o

Best
Time Name [Racecourse]
02:10 Court Alliance [Fontwell]
02:55 Ask Bobby [Catterick]
03:15 Travelling Light [Fontwell]
03:15 Herecomestanley [Fontwell]
03:25 Truly Fruitful [Catterick]
03:45 Ouragan Lagrange [Fontwell]

Others
Time Name [Racecourse]
01:40 Alfadora [Fontwell]
02:25 Cash Man [Catterick]
02:45 Pardini [Fontwell]
03:25 Bright Sparky [Catterick]
03:55 Trading Trouble [Catterick]

BTW
 

Any selection that has a Daily Donkey published SP of more than 11.00 will be ignored. That's getting a little long.

eg. Yesterday Alfabet Souk had a published SP of 11.00. Anything more than that and it wouldn't have been included in our results. I'll also not include it in the Daily Donkey's results.

Results March 7th
 

Not a bad night. The "Others" category is shaping as bets not lays. Remember it's the "Best" category that we're concentrating on.

Best
Time Name [Racecourse]
02:10 Court Alliance [Fontwell] ... LOST +1.00
02:55 Ask Bobby [Catterick] ... LOST +1.00
03:15 Travelling Light [Fontwell] ... TOO LONG NO LAY
03:15 Herecomestanley [Fontwell] ... LOST +1.00
03:25 Truly Fruitful [Catterick] ... LOST +1.00
03:45 Ouragan Lagrange [Fontwell] ... LOST +1.00

Best Results March 6th 2007 - March 7th 2007

Pixie Units Out: 10.00
Pixie Units In: +4.50
Pixie POT: +45.00%

Donkey Units Out: 63.00
Donkey Units In: +1.97
Donkey POT: +3.12


======
Others
Time Name [Racecourse]
01:40 Alfadora [Fontwell] ... WON -4.00
02:25 Cash Man [Catterick] ... LOST +1.00
02:45 Pardini [Fontwell] ... LOST +1.00
03:25 Bright Sparky [Catterick] ... WON -4.00
03:55 Trading Trouble [Catterick] ... WON -2.50

Congratulations on an excellent night. Surely the filters you are using consist of more than the reduction factor. I don't think the total donkey selections on the site would have made a profit at all. Unable to access results sheet at the moment.

Thanks Salty hope your getting some use out of the selections. It's easy when somebody else does most of the work for you. ;)

Your right the Betfair Reduction figures aren't in play now. Look back to post #19 in this thread and you'll see I'm using a different cunning plan.

Bit early for me to put any serious money on yet.

That didn't read right. What I mean is that the underlying selections need to be sound to begin with. All I'm doing is tweaking somebody elses work.

Thought you were being a bit tough :) .

Not sure just what I am doing about these at the moment. Michaelg is doing a pretty good job for Oz just now though.

Yep Michael is doing a great job.

It's early days for the UK yet. When I get a chance I'll work out how many "beta" bet's we'll need to get under our belts before we can be confident that the results aren't just a fluke. Going back over past results though it does hold some promise.

March 8th
 

Quieter night tonight. Good luck.

Best
Time Name [Racecourse]
01:40 Wotashambles [Wincanton]
02:15 Tradingup [Wincanton]
03:25 Le Rochelais [Wincanton]

Others
02:15 Mylord Collonges [Wincanton]

Salty

Sorry I've just read that comment of mine again. It sounds as if I was having a go at you for some reason. I'm actually having a go at myself for riding on somebody else's coat tails. :)

Two from two so far. Hope you had some money on.

Pixie

Results March 8th
 

Quiet but pleasing evening.

Best
Time Name [Racecourse]
02:40 Woyashambles [Wincanton] ... LOST +1.00
03:15 Trading Up [Wincanton] ... LOST +1.00
04:25 Le Rochelais [Wincaton] ... LOST +1.00

Best Results March 6th 2007 - March 8th 2007

Pixie Units Out: 13.00
Pixie Units Profit: +7.50
Pixie POT: +57.69%

Donkey Units Out: 81.00
Donkey Units Profit: +3.14
Donkey POT: +3.87


======
Others
Time Name [Racecourse]
03:15 Mylord Collonges [Wincanton] ... LOST +1.00

March 9th
 

Quite a number tonight to finish the week off for us. All the best.

Best
Time Name [Racecourse]
01:00 Wensley Blue [Ayr]
02:00 Strong Resolve [Ayr]
02:35 Or De Grugy [Ayr]
03:10 Reckless Venture [Ayr]
03:45 Something Silver [Ayr]
04:20 Daffi [Ayr]

Others
02:00 Morgan Be [Ayr]
03:25 Surfboard [Leicester]

Results March 9th
 

Here'e our results from March 6th to March 9th inclusive. Something Silver spoilt the party a little last night but the week did end in a winning fashion. We've achieved our objective over these four days and have finished ahead of the Donkey's POT.

The "Others" category is interesting. I think we can forget it for lay selections. Do you want me to continue listing "Other" selection's next week? You'd have finished 10 units up if you backed them for the win.

Best
Date-Time Name [Racecourse]
20070306-0130 Neptune Joly [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0130 Flake [Newcastle] ... WON -4.50
20070306-0200 Green Ideal [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0230 Alfabet Souk [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0330 Crackadee [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0210 Court Alliance [Fontwell] ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0255 Ask Bobby [Catterick] ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0315 Travelling Light [Fontwell] ... TOO LONG NO LAY
20070307-0315 Herecomestanley [Fontwell] ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0325 Truly Fruitful [Catterick] ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0345 Ouragan Lagrange [Fontwell] ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0240 Wotashambles [Wincanton] ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0315 Trading Up [Wincanton] ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0425 Le Rochelais [Wincanton] ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0100 Wensley Blue [Ayr] ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0200 Strong Resolve [Ayr] ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0235 Or De Grugy [Ayr] ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0310 Reckless Venture [Ayr] ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0345 Something Silver [Ayr] ... WON -3.33
20070309-0420 Daffi [Ayr] ... LOST +1.00

Best Results March 6th 2007 - March 9th 2007

Pixie Units Out: 19.00
Pixie Units Profit: +9.17
Pixie POT: +48.26%

Donkey Units Out: 110.00
Donkey Units Profit: +2.56
Donkey POT: +2.32%


======
Others
Date-Time Name [Racecourse]
20070306-0100 Wolds Way [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0230 In Dream's [Newcastle] ... WON -4.00
20070306-0300 Minster Abbi [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0400 Oshkosh [Newcastle] ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0140 Alfadora [Fontwell] ... WON -4.00
20070308-0225 Cash Man [Catterick] ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0245 Pardini [Fontwell] ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0325 Bright Sparky [Catterick] ... WON -4.00
20070308-0355 Trading Trouble [Catterick] ... WON -2.50
20070308-0315 Mylord Collonges [Wincanton] ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0200 Morgan Be [Ayr] ... WON -2.50
20070309-0325 Surfboard [Leicester] ... LOST +1.00

That's it till Monday night. I don't do the UK over the weekend.

Don't get too excited yet
 

I've had a chance to go back and look at the last two weeks of February to see how we would have faired. Overall we'd have returned a not to be sneezed at 39.71% POT based on the SP's published on the Daily Donkey site. Over the same period though backing all the Donkeys would have returned 59.92% POT :(. We'd have had four losing days, and two break even days. Two of the losing days were killers though when we'd have layed the only winners for the day.

The Donkey's returns for Feb 2007 were one of only four months overall that they managed a return of over 10,000 so I'm not too concerned that backing all their selections returned a better POT. And of course I don't know what would have happened in the first two weeks of Feb.

What I think will happen is that in the months they do above average, they'll probably return a better POT. Other months I think our selective approach to laying their tips will return a better POT, and hopefully there will be more of those.

You could of course lay all their tips, but I think you'd struggle to make it pay. Also they seem to go up and down on the same spot for days on end eg. they've returned a 2.79 unit profit over the weekend but outlayed 71 units to do so!

Whether you follow all their tips, our selection of them, or a selection of your own, you'd be well advised to take Chromes advice and get your hands on a decent PP market and lay at about 12-20% less than the PP price. Yes, less is more :)

===
As an example:
Prepost price: 3/1 (same as $4.00 or 25%)
Multipy 25% x 1.2 = 30% (same as $3.33)

Therefore the maximum price we'd offer on Betfair for this selection is $3.35, which is $3.33 rounded up to the nearest price increment.
===

Maybe Maria or (Mark Does Maria) staking could be your go.

I've still not had a chance to work out the "trials" we'll need to be confident that the profits will continue, but in the absence of a computed figure let's say that what ever we do by the end of the month should give us some indication one way or the other.

Congratulations to the Daily Donkey team for consistently coming up with the goods. :D

Congratulations and thanks to you for all your hard work, Angry Pixie.

March 12th
 

Ok here we go again. Smallish fields tonight so not many selections. Nobody answered as to whether the "Others" category should be saved so it's history. The following selections should be layed, not backed.

Have a nice night.

Time Name [Racecourse]
02:10 Lady Wilde [Taunton]
02:30 Bright Eagle [Plumpton]
02:40 Sitting Duck [Taunton]
03:30 Malmo Boy [Plumpton]

PS: Thanks Salty.