5 min. LAY SYSTEM
 

Very bored at work so thought of a new lay system. I gave it a whole 5 minutes thought, and it takes about 5 minutes to excecute:

-Pre post $3 or less
-Jockey short term strike rate for the track must be less than 8%
-API figure must not be the highest (racingandsports)

One selection today: Geraldton R7 N2 GUSTI GOLA

Supposed to be 42 degrees in Geraldton today, could prove a good day to lay there. Extreme heat can throw up unusual results.

Geraldton R7 N2 GUSTI GOLA 2nd @ 5.44

Just using 20% above tote price. Didn't get time to lay it myself.

Townsville
R7 N3 BACK OF HOUSE

Taree
R6 N3 LES'S LASS

Townsville
R7 N3 BACK OF HOUSE 3rd @ 3.50

Taree
R6 N3 LES'S LASS scratched

Gosford
R1 N2 TEXARCANA
R3 N3 ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE
R6 N1 PRO ALI

Pt Lincoln
R6 N2 BOY JOHN

Brief summary of the first few days.....

Geraldton R7 N2 GUSTI GOLA Lost @ 5.44
Townsville R7 N3 BACK OF HOUSE Lost @ 3.50
Gosford R1 N2 TEXARCANA Lost @ 2.80
Gosford R3 N3 ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE Lost @ 6.40
Gosford R6 N1 PRO ALI Lost @ 4.70
Pt Lincoln R6 N2 BOY JOHN Lost @ 3.80

Excellent results, Young Buck. Today looks like a clean sweep also. Can you explain which is the API figure on Racing and sports, and also where you get the jock/track stats?

Hi Salty,

The API is found where the big 'F' is for form, and then go to the race in question, and then to stats. API is on the far right. The jockey strike rates are also in racing and sports. If you click on a race meeting, the jockey strike rates should be in the left hand column.

Thankyou Young Buck - I have managed to find them. I find these complicated sites quite a challenge, so I'm grateful for your help.

Impressive!

Thanks Merriguy. Good early days. Will record results until the end of March, then the punters can make of it what they will.....

Echuca
R6 N4 ARRIVA DANE

Echuca
R6 N4 ARRIVA DANE Lost @ 5.20

Still going well - good on you

I have noticed a lot of pre post markets differ, but if the system is any good it shouldnt matter. I am only suggesting $3 or less to weed out most high betfair prices, but as you can see the selections are usually in the $5 range. I won't go beyond $7 personally. This system is for favoured horses, there could be dozens of more selections i'm missing, its just that it is easy to nominate form the form guide, rather than waiting race to race to check actual prices. Interesting to see how we fare today.....

Eagle Farm
R1 N5 TAKE THE PLEA

Edenhope
R7 N1 BIG POPPA PUMP

Morphettville
R1 N1 BOLTCUTTER

Toowoomba
R4 N3 RUBY'S PARTY

Whenever there is access to fixed odds I will also post any that fit the system criteria that are 5.00 or less. Due to the amount of talented jockey's around for Saturday meets, there aren't too many bobbing up. I can already see a few price blow-outs with my earlier selections.

Eagle farm
R8 N16 COONAC

Randwick
R1 N5 MAGIC INSTINCT

Eagle farm
R8 N16 COONAC Lost @ 3.60

Randwick
R1 N5 MAGIC INSTINCT Lost @ 2.70

Eagle Farm
R1 N5 TAKE THE PLEA Won @ 3.50 X

Edenhope
R7 N1 BIG POPPA PUMP scratched

Morphettville
R1 N1 BOLTCUTTER Lost @ 8.10 (a bit long for me)

Toowoomba
R4 N3 RUBY'S PARTY Lost @ 3.60

11 out of 12 at reasonably short odds. Can't complain....

Mt Barker
R6 N1 LE JEUNE

You have been doing very well YoungBuck. Congrats.

Yesterday I was a bit tied up and only managed to follow two of your suggestions --- one was scratched, the other won. Wouldn't it! The other four, of course, lost.

Oh well, there is always today!

Thanks Merriguy. It's funny, I missed all but the last two which both lost but scared the hell out of me losing in photo's. It is very much in a trial phase so no great sums of cash at this stage.

Mt Barker
R6 N1 LE JEUNE Lost @ 3.40

This was a ludicrous price for a horse that had only won once and placed twice in 16 attempts! Throw in the jockey with deplorable strike-rate and other horses with better API and you have yourselves a laying opportunity!

There were a few more I laid today that fit the criteria as I had more time to watch the markets. I might start using 3.50 as the cut-off point in the pre post markets, just to get some more action.

13 Selections: 92% losers @ 4.36

Well done. The method has logic, no reason why it won't continue.

Thanks Michaelg. I'm just looking for an edge, and it might come from the system rules as they are often stats that are completely overlooked.

Pakenham
R9 N1 ELMORE

Surprisingly not much action. Might post more later if the early fixed markets come up for other meetings other than Morphettville.

12th March Moonee Valley R4 N6 FEARLESS WATERS

Moonee Valley R4 N6 FEARLESS WATERS Lost @ 5.70
Pakenham R9 N1 ELMORE Lost @ 3.65

Port Macquarie
R6 N1 MISTAMAN
R6 N4 OUR JAASI
R8 N1 WANT A BET

As you can see there are 2 selections in one race, which has not come up before. Either lay both or just the shortest priced one. Maybe Mistaman, as it is barrier 10 in a 1000m race. Tricky. Any thoughts??

definately lay both, reduced loss if an accident does happens

That's what i'll do, thanks stugots, unless the price blows out on one or both.

Port Macquarie
R6 N1 MISTAMAN Won @ 6.00 X
R6 N4 OUR JAASI Lost @ 6.60
R8 N1 WANT A BET Lost @ 11.20

Not the greatest day....

Geraldton
R2 N1 ROSVENOR
R4 N4 SCENIC FLASH

Geraldton
R2 N1 ROSVENOR Lost @ 4.80
R4 N4 SCENIC FLASH Lost @ 5.60

Well done --- again!!

Townsville
R2 N3 SHINKANSEN EXPRESS
R3 N1 WAY HOME
R3 N2 HARD DRIVIN MAMA
R6 OVERSEAS
R6 N6 FLICK N SPIN

young buck
where do you get your prepost prices from

Hi Denis,

The Herald Sun in Melbourne, but i have been including up to 3.50 odds, occasionally higher.

Those pp markets are obviously just a guide, any way you can identify horses within 4-6.00 or preferably shorter, suit the system. You can try any price range with it, or sit race to race if you want more selections, but this way is quick and easy and working so far.

Townsville
R2 N3 SHINKANSEN EXPRESS Won @ 4.50 X
R3 N1 WAY HOME Won @ 5.00 X
R3 N2 HARD DRIVIN MAMA Lost @ 4.50
R6 OVERSEAS Lost @ 5.3
R6 N6 FLICK N SPIN Lost @ 3.75

It aint all beer and skittles, but we came home OK. I guess when you only include horses in the market, you are bound to cop a few losses. Of the few 'accidents' a couple have been when there's 2 in the one race. Might have to make it lay the shortest only, as it seems when i lay both, the longer one usually gets up!

Overall pretty happy with it, but signing off for now!!

Hi younbuck,
It definitly is better to lay the shorter price because, in lay betting , they are offering the greater value to lose.

Cheers.