Beat the Donkey
 

Hi

I've revised some of the "rules" from the previous thread "The Daily Donkey", and have included the selections I would have posted over the weekend. Take these with however big a grain of salt you wish :) Basically I'm now laying all selections.

I'm attempting to take a subset of the lay selections from the Daily Donkey website (w w w dot dailydonkey dot com), with the objective of returning a greater strike rate, and POT. I'll keep this going till the end of this month, and will try to post weekend selections.

I'll be using the Racing Index (w w w dot racing-index dot com) as the source of results.

Here's our selections and results to date:

20070306-0130 Newcastle - Neptune Joly ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0130 Newcastle - Flake ... WON -4.50
20070306-0200 Newcastle - Green Ideal ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0230 Newcastle - Alfabet Souk ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0330 Newcastle - Crackadee ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0210 Fontwell - Court Alliance ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0255 Catterick - Ask Bobby ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0315 Fontwell - Travelling Light ... LOST + 1.00
20070307-0315 Fontwell - Herecomestanley ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0325 Catterick - Truly Fruitful ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0345 Fontwell - Ouragan Lagrange ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0240 Wincanton - Wotashambles ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0315 Wincanton - Trading Up ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0425 Wincanton - Le Rochelais ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0100 Ayr - Wensley Blue ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0200 Ayr - Strong Resolve ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0235 Ayr - Or De Grugy ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0310 Ayr - Reckless Venture ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0345 Ayr - Something Silver ... WON -3.33
20070309-0420 Ayr - Daffi ... LOST +1.00
20070310-0255 Ayr - Jimmy Bond ... LOST +1.00
20070310-0330 Ayr - Mr Preacher Man ... LOST +1.00
20070310-0355 Sandown - Stan ... LOST +1.00
20070310-0400 Ayr - Almire Du Lia ... LOST +1.00
20070310-0420 Chepstow - Whitford Don ... WON -6.00
20070311-0110 Warwick - Nick's Choice ... LOST +1.00
20070311-0150 Market Rasen - First Feerie ... LOST +1.00
20070311-0220 Market Rasen - Aqua Pura ... LOST +1.00
20070311-0250 Market Rasen - Golden Oak ... LOST +1.00
20070311-0350 Market Rasen - Dance The Mambo ... LOST +1.00
20070311-0420 Market Rasen - Kayceecee ... LOST +1.00
20070312-0210 Taunton - Lady Wilde ... LOST +1.00
20070312-0230 Plumpton - Bright Eagle ... LOST +1.00
20070312-0240 Taunton - Sitting Duck ... LOST +1.00
20070312-0240 Taunton - Orsus ... LOST +1.00
20070312-0330 Plumpton - Malmo Boy ... WON -6.00
20070312-0410 Taunton - Shernatra ... LOST +1.00
20070313-0300 Cheltenham - Little Brick ... LOST +1.00
20070313-0315 Sedgefield - Emerald Destiny ... LOST +1.00
20070313-0315 Sedgefield - Dead Mans Dante ... LOST +1.00
20070313-0340 Cheltenham - Heads Onthe Ground ... WON -2.50
20070313-0340 Cheltenham - Spot Thedifference ... LOST +1.00
20070313-0420 Cheltenham - Gaspara ... WON -4.50

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 13th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 43
Successful Selections: 37
Strike Rate: 86.04%
Total Profit: +10.17 units
POT: 23.65%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 248
Successful Selections: 182
Strike Rate: 73.39%
Total Profit: +3.41 units
POT: 1.38%

Selections: March 14th
 

Remember these are lays. ;)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070314-0200 Huntingdon - Ballykiln
20070314-0240 Huntingdon - King's Thought
20070314-0240 Huntingdon - Bawn Boy
20070314-0325 Huntingdon - Topless
20070314-0325 Huntingdon - Heart Strings
20070314-0405 Huntingdon - Glimmer Of Light

Good luck

:) :)

Well done:) :)

Though some of those picks were a little on the high side!

Well done AP.

Perhaps we could even look at horses that continually go around at short odds and fail.
That horse Little Brick has been a real money spinner for me ;)

How can you lose with something called Beat the Donkey !!!

this isnt like 'spanking the monkey' i hope

Results: March 14th
 

A successful night for all. The Donkey's did very well, and we were lucky enough to choose correctly also. :)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070314-0200 Huntingdon - Ballykiln ... LOST +1.00
20070314-0240 Huntingdon - King's Thought ... LOST +1.00
20070314-0240 Huntingdon - Bawn Boy ... LOST +1.00
20070314-0325 Huntingdon - Topless ... LOST +1.00
20070314-0325 Huntingdon - Heart Strings ... LOST +1.00
20070314-0405 Huntingdon - Glimmer Of Light ... LOST +1.00


===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 14th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 49
Successful Selections: 43
Strike Rate: 87.75%
Total Profit: +16.17 units
POT: 33.00%

Daily Donkey:*
===
Number of Selections: 264
Successful Selections: 198
Strike Rate: 75.00%
Total Profit: +9.50 units
POT: 3.60%

*I'd originally hoped to use the Racing-Index proofing pages to keep track of the Daily Donkey's results. This morning I've noticed some large discrepancy's between the results posted by the Daily Donkey site, and those posted on the Racing-Index site. In a nutshell the Daily Donkey is doing slightly better than the Racing-Index give them credit for. To this end I've created a simple spreadsheet and will record all the results myself using the Racing Post results as a reference. These are those.

Above the belt please :p

Thanks Merriguy. Sadly I don't have as much influence over the SP's as I'd like.

I layed Ballykiln quite early after posting my selections and it did get the blows from there. You decide what you want to do though. I'm laying to prices, so don't get on everyone of the selections. I'm hoping our stats can stay about the same or better than where they are. I think it would be possible to lay them all and still have a profit then. Remember that the SP's used in compile the results are the official (above 100%) ones, and do not take commission into account.

Hope your getting some sleep :)

Chrome

I'm not that familiar with UK racing but have noticed how quickly some horses back-up. Sometimes the next day! As you say there must be quite a few that regularly just make up the numbers. Good idea, I'll try to look out for them.

Selections: March 15th
 

Quite a busy night tonight. Expect one or two accidents. Best of luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070315-0100 Cheltenham - King Revo
20070315-0115 Hexham - Westgrove Berry
20070315-0135 Cheltenham - Monet's Garden
20070315-0215 Cheltenham - Black Jack Ketchum
20070315-0300 Cheltenham - Opera Mundi
20070315-0315 Hexham - Supreme Breeze
20070315-0355 Hexham - Rebelle
20070315-0430 Hexham - Mister Magnum
20070315-0430 Hexham - Baligrundle

8/9 ---- should be pleased with that :) How do you pick so unerringly those who are going to fall, unseat the rider, be pulled up?

Merriguy

Yes pleased to get out with a profit. Thought Monet's Garden and Black Jack Ketchum were our biggest concerns, but they both put in a fizzer. By all accounts Black Jack is pretty over-hyped anyway. Glad we missed the 8-1 winner at Southwell! You'd have done pretty well laying all the Donkeys as they only had four accidents for the night.

Results posted later today.

Results: March 15th
 

Not a bad night.

From today I'll start deducting the Betfair commission at a rate of 5%. Whilst not perfect it does give a better perspective on the relative Pixie and Donkey positions. I mean that in a clean way ;)

Hope your getting some enjoyment from this. Is anybody actually laying these other than me?

Date-Time Course - Name
20070315-0100 Cheltenham - King Revo ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0115 Hexham - Westgrove Berry ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0135 Cheltenham - Monet's Garden ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0215 Cheltenham - Black Jack Ketchum ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0300 Cheltenham - Opera Mundi ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0315 Hexham - Supreme Breeze ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0355 Hexham - Rebelle ... WON -5.50
20070315-0430 Hexham - Mister Magnum ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0430 Hexham - Baligrundle ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 15th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 58
Successful Selections: 51
Strike Rate: 87.93%
Profit: +18.67 units
Commission @ 5%: -2.55 units
Net Profit: +16.12 units
Net POT: 27.79%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 292
Successful Selections: 222
Strike Rate: 76.02%
Profit: +15.75 units
Commission @ 5%: -11.10 units
Net Profit: +4.65 units
Net POT: 1.59%

I am Angry Pixie - last night was great - thankyou

Don't tell Mrs Salty ;)

That's great. All those extra coffee's are worth it then.

have to let you into a little secret- I am Mrs.Salty.

Last night was good for me too then. ;)

Salty

Interested to know how you're staking these.

I am using Maria's staking method, mainly because I'm more comfortable with the lesser exposure when the prices get up a bit high.

Pixie

May I suggest something like Maria.
Set aside a bank, and bet accordingly.
I'm sure you'll make it pay.

Mark

Yes I think your right. I'm just reading over her thread again whilst waiting for all the Donkeys to appear. Should do ok if we couple Maria with some semi-aggressive Chrome type pricing.

Selections: March 16th
 

Only a handful of lays tonight.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070316-0150 Fakenham - Real Chief
20070316-0230 Fakenham - Cool Roxy
20070316-0300 Cheltenham - Whyso Mayo
20070316-0315 Fakenham - Quid Pro Quo

Results: March 16th
 

Challenging night. The full Donkey posted a negative return, and we were lucky to break even with our subset of selections.

Last night provided a good example of the benefits offered by laying to prices. I'd priced the four selection like this

Real Chief $7.00
Cool Roxy $3.75
Whyso Mayo $3.70
Quid Pro Quo $5.10

I couldn't get matched on Real Chief or Cool Roxy so I finished with two lays for two successful results. :)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070316-0150 Fakenham - Real Chief ... LOST +1.00
20070316-0230 Fakenham - Cool Roxy ... WON -3.00
20070316-0300 Cheltenham - Whyso Mayo ... LOST +1.00
20070316-0315 Fakenham - Quid Pro Quo ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 16th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 62
Successful Selections: 54
Strike Rate: 87.09%
Profit: +18.67 units
Commission @ 5%: -2.70 units
Net Profit: +15.97 units
Net POT: 25.75%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 322
Successful Selections: 243
Strike Rate: 75.46%
Profit: +12.91 units
Commission @ 5%: -12.15 units
Net Profit: +0.76 units
Net POT: 0.23%

Selections: March 17th
 

A bit more action tonight. Best of luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070317-0110 Uttoxeter - Boyastara
20070317-0140 Uttoxeter - Glasker Mill
20070317-0200 Newcastle - Spirit Calling
20070317-0235 Wetherby - Loulou Nivernais
20070317-0250 Uttoxeter - Nenuphar Collonges
20070317-0335 Newcastle - Sunisa
20070317-0350 Uttoxeter - Alfadora
20070317-0405 Newcastle - Auntie Kathleen
20070317-0420 Uttoxeter - Bertie May

Looks like a disaster!
 

Will post results later but at a glance it looks like we've had a bomb go off.

I only seem to have been matched on two selections (out of nine!!)

Boyastara @ $6.60 (SP 7/1) :)
Alfadora @ $4.40 (SP 3/1) :)

Auntie Kathleen was a non-runner, and Nenuphar Collonges (SP 5/1) and Bertie May (SP 7/1) both won :( :(

I knew there was a reason to take the weekends off.

Actually,P., you got 6/8 right. Not great --- but not too bad.

Whether or not you got matched is something only you would know.

Merriguy your right and I'm not comfortable making such statements without being able to support them. The attached JPG's may help. Stake and Profit/Loss have been erased. I'm literally only laying for penny's until I'll sure we're on to something.

Talk to you later.

Results: March 17th
 

Last night went nicely pear shaped. The full Donkey posted a nice profit for the night. We put in a stinker. Onwards and upwards from here. Let's hope.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070317-0110 Uttoxeter - Boyastara ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0140 Uttoxeter - Glasker Mill ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0200 Newcastle - Spirit Calling ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0235 Wetherby - Loulou Nivernais ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0250 Uttoxeter - Nenuphar Collonges ... WON -5.00
20070317-0335 Newcastle - Sunisa ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0350 Uttoxeter - Alfadora ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0405 Newcastle - Auntie Kathleen ... NON RUNNER
20070317-0420 Uttoxeter - Bertie May ... WON -7.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 17th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 70
Successful Selections: 60
Strike Rate: 85.71%
Profit: +12.67 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.00 units
Net Profit: +9.97 units
Net POT: 14.24%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 370
Successful Selections: 282
Strike Rate: 76.21%
Profit: +25.69 units
Commission @ 5%: -14.10 units
Net Profit: +11.59 units
Net POT: 3.13%

Selections: March 18th
 

Last week of this thread.

A few too many selections for my comfort tonight, but let's take a swing anyway. Laying to prices will be your friend.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070318-0100 Carlisle - Euro American
20070318-0120 Fontwell - Rockwithacaveman
20070318-0120 Fontwell - Storm Prince
20070318-0130 Carlisle - Cavers Glen
20070318-0130 Carlisle - Ocarina
20070318-0330 Fontwell - Notanotherdonkey
20070318-0330 Fontwell - Precious Bane
20070318-0430 Fontwell - River Amora
20070318-0430 Fontwell - Lorrelini
20070318-0430 Fontwell - Just Muckin Around

Results: March 18th
 

Almost recouped all of the previous nights "accidents". Hard to get on some as they started a little long.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070318-0100 Carlisle - Euro American ... WON -3.50
20070318-0120 Fontwell - Rockwithacaveman ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0120 Fontwell - Storm Prince ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0130 Carlisle - Cavers Glen ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0130 Carlisle - Ocarina ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0330 Fontwell - Notanotherdonkey ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0330 Fontwell - Precious Bane ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0430 Fontwell - River Amora ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0430 Fontwell - Lorrelini ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0430 Fontwell - Just Muckin Around ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 18th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 80
Successful Selections: 69
Strike Rate: 86.25%
Profit: +18.17 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.45 units
Net Profit: +14.72 units
Net POT: 18.40%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 398
Successful Selections: 304
Strike Rate: 76.38%
Profit: +33.58 units
Commission @ 5%: -18.38 units
Net Profit: +15.20 units
Net POT: 3.81%

Didn't say that to be critical. Just stating the obvious I guess!!

You did well last night.

I went to bed. Had 'walked the Bridge' (wonder how many forumites were there too?) and was pretty tired. Had had a long day even before that.

Keep on thinking about Maria's ideas. I am certain that she said that you had to average something like 85% to make a success of it --- using her suggested betting 'bands'. You are managing that O.K.. You would get a lot more bets in that way?!?!

P.S. Very impressed by the thumbnails. Will have to give us all a lesson on how to do them one day

Merriguy, I didn't think you were being critical. :)

I work in an environment where peer review is standard and expected practice. Where sweeping statements need to be supported by hard won data, and where everyone has a theory that they're sure is better than your's. You know, kind of what it's like around here ;)



Yes I read this in Maria's thread too. I've also read it somewhere else where the guy provided a neat little equation as to why all lay methods should aim for at least 85% strike rate. Wish I'd have saved it because I've completely forgotton where it's found.

PS: I was a week ahead of myself when I said last night this thread had a week to go. I'll be finishing the thread on March 31st, and will go loud with the method from April 1st onwards. Something appeals to me about starting things on April Fool's Day.

PPS: JPG's by SnagIT. An absolute must have. http://www.techsmith.com/snagit.asp

Selections: March 19th
 

Good luck :)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070319-0100 Wincanton- Shankly Bond
20070319-0130 Wincanton- High Calibre
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Nortonthorpe Lad
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Only Words
20070319-0300 Wincanton - Petit Lord
20070319-0310 Market Rasen - Kercabellec

5/6 --- not bad! It is when one bad pick wipes your winnings that this laying caper makes me mad.

Thanks for the Snagit lead. Appreciated.

Results: March 19th
 

Small profit overnight. Full Daily Donkey doing very well at the moment but above average so beware. Looking for an all green day from us soon.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070319-0100 Wincanton- Shankly Bond ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0130 Wincanton- High Calibre ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Nortonthorpe Lad ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Only Words ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0300 Wincanton - Petit Lord ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0310 Market Rasen - Kercabellec ... WON -4.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 19th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 86
Successful Selections: 74
Strike Rate: 86.04%
Profit: +19.17 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.70 units
Net Profit: +15.47 units
Net POT: 17.98%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 436
Successful Selections: 333
Strike Rate: 76.37%
Profit: +38.70 units*
Commission @ 5%: -16.65 units*
Net Profit: +22.05 units*
Net POT: 5.05%*

*These figures have been revised down due to me making a silly spreadsheet error. Sorry about that. Too many late night I think..

I know. 5 steps forward, 4 steps back. I'm used to it from running my Oz lay method for 18 months. We should finish the month with an ok profit I think. We'll beat the Daily Donkey on POT, but we are leaving them a few profitable selections at the moment :( Might do just as well with a pin and a blindfold.

Have you noticed that most of our accidents have been expensive ones?

Selections: March 20th
 

Sorry bit late putting these up tonight. Best of luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070320-0110 Warwick - Just Supposin
20070320-0120 Exeter - Another Gale
20070320-0240 Warwick - Rowdy Yeats
20070320-0250 Exeter - Anshabil
20070320-0310 Warwick - Ceoperk
20070320-0330 Southwell - Macademy Royal

Hi AP,

Congratulations on your revised method.
It looks to be working well.
Have you experimented with prices at all?
The key to any lay method is getting as close to the lowest lay price available.
I always have to bear in mind that Betfair usually pays substantially better odds overall, so there is a bit of an art in getting the shortest odds you can.

Hi Chrome. Thanks things are going along ok I think. I'm pleased that I'm able to use a similar selection technique to my current Oz lay method, although I've a higher strike rate in Oz.



Yes that's basically what I'm doing at present. I'm only placing small lays to just feel out the edges of the price moves. Some guys on another forum have done some interesting work on converting SP prices to BF prices. They're using three equations for three different price bands. I'll have a chance to look over those this weekend I hope.

How's things with you?