How much does Beadman lift a horse?
 

Ever been looking over the form guide and notice something out of the ordinary? Something that's just completely different to the normal ?

A few weeks ago I noticed that Daren Beadman had a ride at Gosford (Maybe it was wyong).. for John Hawkes of course, but he didn't have another ride all day.. that was it, just one ride.. a long way to travel for just one ride???

It won, easilly at reasonable odds, so maybe it was more than a trip away from town for "just one ride"

Later I noticed that Joshua Parr did the same thing at another track and won as well..

Now don't get me wrong, I am not saying that there's foul play at foot, I doubt it, but it's strange how often this occurs..

At Rosehill today, I noticed something odd!... Daren Beadman riding for Gai Waterhouse??? Now that is ODD!!!

Now just how does something like that come about? Surely Gai has other riders she can choose from? But Daren, he never rides for her...

He won of course, but I think it was a bit odd, don't you...

Anyone else got an Odd occurances, or am I just parinoid.

Kind Regards
OzPunter
ozpunter01@gmail.com

NSW racing is just more odd than any other state!

The Sydney Sunday Telegraph has an article about how this came about, today, but there still seems to be a pattern of odd things coming good.

No Doubt Beadmans the best, but how is it he can lift a horse, and by how much?... Other jockeys have the same schooling, the same trainers the same opportunities, yet Beadman turned in 4 out of 9 possibles on Saturday..like 50% I stopped betting when the rain came, but you've got to admit putting Beadman on board lifts a horses chances greatly.

So what is it he does right? that the others aren't doing?

I watched his win on Tuesdays Joy closely, He certainly is energetic..

Kind Regards
OzPunter

I think Tuesday Joys win just showed why you should leave any horse ridden by Danny Beasley alone.

Here in the U.S. many successful very riders use a buzzer, an electronic shocking device which urges a horse to run faster when called on to do so. It is easy to conceal the device. Others use a syringe laced with illegal substance. More likely the trainer adminsters that. These are illegal tactics of course.

In Beadman's case, I think he's just that good of a jockey. Perhaps he judges his run better, or is more in tune with how the horse wants to run his best race. Beadman loses races too, but he really does have a fantastic strike rate. There are many other riders who are also very good, and they seem to improve the run of a horse also.

Just my opinion.

I have heard that the first thing he does at every course every day is walk the whole circuit.

I wonder how many go to that much trouble --- for starters.

Darren has had 86 rides for Gai for a 20.58% POT and 31.40% strike rate on city tracks.

Not so strange at all.

Darren's gift is not in lifting a horse, but in rating it.
He has the talent to know how much exactly the horse has left and when "to go"
Of course there's no doubting he has some of the best horses to ride which make him look good, but he keeps getting the best rides because he rates them better than any other jockey around.
Every jockey makes mistakes, he just makes less of them. ;)

Getting Betfair best prices on any price range of his rides, results in a very decent profit also.

One thing you normally see out of Beadman that not alot of other jockeys do consistently is he lets the balance up properly before asking it for a complete effort except where the pace of the race has determined that he cannot ride the horse in this manor.

He knows how to judge the pace of a race and he so often sits the horse in the right place after that he doesn't have to ride to many hacks so for the most part he is probably sitting on the back of if not the best horse in the race close to it.

When it comes to Group earning though [top of the Tree effort], Beadman is not in the same class as Boss who out earns him there.
For also-ran races in Syd. and group races in Syd. [mostly riding favorites], he is definitely the best. That said, unlike other top Syd. jockeys, he's terrified of the big Group races in Melb. [and having to compete with the likes of Ollie and other notables] where he is definitely mostly absent!

At group level wins and [number of] premierships level, he's a long way form Ollie anyway.

He did have all those years away while he was off finding God though, and the way it's going at the moment, there isn't going to be anyone competing with him in Sydney for a while.

I would like to think that Ollie was a better bet (being from Melbourne) but it really does seem to be due to horse flesh.

(On a slightly different subject but related theme, I was looking at the HK races tonight and it is the same up there with Douglas Whyte - he's always winning the premiership but every horse he rides seems to start in the red)

I would love to see some analysis of Beadman's career measured by starting price

Don't handing that title over to Whyte to soon Prebble is only 3 wins behind and he is on fire he is the best jockey I have seen here in australia doubt we will ever see to much of him again.

Maybe Prebble will nab him, but then it will jsut be Prebble who'll start getting all the odds-on rides - it seems like racing over there is almost self-fulfilling for jockeys.

which probably does just underline how good prebble is

Wow, what a response...
 

Good Morning all,

What a response to my Beadman post...

This raises another question... We have many good jockeys in Sydney metrpolitan and provincial meetings...

So how do we rate them? I hate sitting around and saying Bill is a better performer than Jack but after all we are here to make money so if we can rate jockeys in the same way we rate horses and tracks... For that matter we should also rate trainers and their staff and traning facilities..

( Gai Waterhouse would also have us rate RanVet feed)

Ok, everybody throw your two-bob's worth in,

How do we rate JOCKEYS and TRAINERS...

Kind Regards
ad have a nice day
OzPunter

For Jockeys:

Total rides over say last 3mths. divided into total win SP odds to establish an average win SP per ride [for the place, use the same formula except divided into total place SP].

For Trainers;

Total runners over last 3 mths. divided into total win SP odds ...

Don't ask me where you would get the stats though :-)

I know where I can get the stats including SP odds? But why not TAB odds, much the same thing really..

Shouldn't we remove runners paying over say $5.00 or even $10.00 because these runers are not really given a chance, but jockeys have to ride something, to get paid and pay the bills etc..

SP odds are for whatever betting source used. TAB SP's would give an accurate starting point to adjust to any other betting source [eg: Betfair + 15 to 20%].

I wouldn't remove any prices unless over say $20, as some riders get up a lot on outsiders. The odd win up to $20 wouldn't make much difference to average price for jockeys mainly getting home on shorties.

Well, what I was getting at is that some jockeys ride a lot of horses.. what we should be trying to measure is the jokeys skill when the runner has got a reasonable chance.. If I take the TAB market and count wins against rides at any price the results will be lowered because some of those rides weren't a serious chance...

I'll have to count wins against rides for a range of prices by gouping prices up to say $100.00 i.e < $2.00, $2.01 - $3.00, $3.01 - $5.00, $5.01 - $8.00, $8.01 - $12.00 etc...

(we can always adjust the figures to suit the results... Gosh I love Stats)..

I have a few things to attend to but I'll look into it soon and let you know the results.

The other way to look at it is to see how many rides a jockey has and work out what kind of wage he is taking home, then add his cut in prizemoney and see which ones are living a high flying lifestyle, and which are the battlers.. Logically the battlers would be the lesser skilled riders... But I'll let someone else ponder that one...



Kind Regards
OzPunter

A couple of examples from Racenet:


Last 12 months
----------------
Beadman-

Rides: 761
Wins: 188
Seconds: 125
Thirds: 120
Strike Rate: 1 winner every 4 rides
Strike Rate Percentage: 24.7
Prizemoney: $12,514,412
Av. prizemoney per win: 66,566
------------------------------------------
Oliver-
Rides: 354 [away with injury for awhile]
Wins: 67
Seconds: 54
Thirds: 40
Strike Rate: 1 winner every 5.3 rides
Strike Rate Percentage: 18.9
Prizemoney: $5,416,500
Av. prizemoney per win: 80,843
------------------------------------------

I don't know where to find total SP for all the rides of Jockeys, but by averaging the total prizemoney it gives an idea of the class of race won. The higher the class of races won by various jockeys would generally suggest better SP's overall I think.

It is easy to work out from both the above SR's the average odds we would need to make a profit. Following both [or any other jockies] on all rides would be a quick road to the poor house. Another thing with top jockeys is they tend to guarantee poor betting value almost every time... and that's another quick road to the poor house!

I agree in principle crash, but we are getting a little off the beam... What the objective is is to find a way to rate the jockeys one against another so we can include it in our race assesments and say, "if I rate these two runners equal, which has the better jockey", (and therefore the greater chance of winning)..

I like the principle of including prizemoney as it would help seperate the good provincial jockeys from the metropolitan jockeys who also ride in the provincial areas.

We also need a way to show "current status" against other jockeys as you will have noticed that some jockeys have bad runs and others have good ones... You can rate a jockey poorly because of some past performance but you need to detect those that are "on a roll", where they have periods that nothing can go wrong and they could win on a rocking horse... Like all of us they have family pressures and other things influencing their lives... "Off" days (or periods) and "On days" or periods.

If there are any past jockeys or current jockeys listening in we'd love to hear your comments, and let me say that if you are monitoring these conversations, please don't take anything said personnally... We all have great respect for the difficult job you do, it takes guts to jump on top of a 500kg+ horse doing 60kph and try to steer it in a race... Me personnally, I would be scared sh??less...In a 72 second 1200 meter race my eyes would be closed tight for 100% of the time.

As a youger buck I used to help work trotters and having just two running side by side is scarry enough believe me...

Kind Regards
OzPunter

If you had backed ALL of Beadman and Oliver's last 100 rides, you would have made a profit. That's every single one of their last 100 rides.

I think someone did a study on here recently and found that backing Beadman on horses at $6+ over the last 6 months or so produced a VERY nice profit.

Geez, Beadman on a horse over $6? Must be about 4 rides a month!

In reply to the original question..........he didn't help Prince Arthur much the other week. Or should a comment like that go in the How Sydney Racing Is Run thread? Hottest case I've seen in years, and what was said?
You guessed it.

If a punting life was just so easy...

Jockies run hot and cold from week to week and even day to day. All of them perform better at some tracks and are very average at others, depending on their riding style which suits certain type of runners better than others etc. Some jockeys ride better in the wet than they do on dry tracks and vis-a-vis.

Like horses, from ride to ride I doubt jockies will ever have a static rating that can be put on them for mechanical use in stats.

Ok, I accept that.. In the ongoing quest for the perfect system one sometimes runs off on tangents that are fruitless endevours...

Now let me rephrase the original.. In my rating system I add two kilos for Beadman and I give Josh Parr and Tye Angland their allowance back because I believe they perform like seasoned jockeys...

On looking at races won by Beadman I'm tempted to give the runners another 2kgs.. That's 4kgs for Beadman or 2.67 lths bonus just because Beadmans riding... Which begs the question "how much does Beadman lift a horse?"

And so we are back full circle.

Kind Regards all
OzPunter

Of course there is the ebb and flow of form for both horses and jockeys.
That's just a natural occurrence.
No horse, no jockey, no thing is perfect.

You have to reverse the situation and ask "how often does this jockey stuff up compared to chance of horse"?

Beadman is miles ahead whichever way you look at it.

Did he stuff up on Prince Arthur - I'm not so sure.
The odds were ridiculously unders especially when looking at the credentials of his opposition.

Beadman drops the horse out to last with the horse throwing it's head around uncomfortable with the slow pace. Beadman hunts up on the fence, the pace a crawl, horse still uncomfortable. Beadman tracks his main chances but gets boxed in by two horses. A wall of horses, but PA was not going like a winner 200m out. He also copped two bad buffetings and the horse directly in front drops back onto him at a crucial point.

I don't think PA was ever going to win that race at any point. Been over the replay several times. You can see Beadman riding him out and the horse not responding.

The slow pace, beat the horse in my opinion.

OzPunter,

If you want to quantify how much he lifts a horse

Ordinary Win Probability 50.44%
Ordinary Place Probability 82.45%

Beadman Win Probability 57.75%
Beadman Place Probability 89.15%

Beadman "lifts" a horse to win an extra 7.31%
Beadman "lifts" a horse to place an extra 6.70%

The best jockey will nearly always return unders on the tote. George Moore or Beadman, the end result is the same. Too many followers that never bet to form or ratings or price. Must admit though, the bloke is ************ good.