Trying to win a buck
 

I've found that Form don't mean much in Football just the same as in many other types of Sport Gambling.
It usually boils down to who wanted it more on the day.
These selections are based on Gut Feeling more than Form Analysis.
I'm putting more money on the better bets and also betting in ways that will deliver higher prices.

St.Kilda has a chance of beating Melbourne and don't think they could lose by very much. 9.5 points in @ $1.90 for $80
Brisbane at the Gabba to beat Hawthorn comfortably. -10.5 points @ $2 for $70
Essendon should put in a good effort against Adelaide. 20.5 points in @ $1.90 for $60
Kangaroos will want the win more than Collingwood. Kangaroos for win @ $2.14 for $50
Fremantle should hammer Port Adelaide. Fremantle -25.5 @ $2 for $40
Western Bulldogs against Geelong. Bulldogs -8.5 @ $2 for $30
Sydney should win by a small amount. Sydney -10.5 @ $1.90 for $20
Carlton to beat Richmond. Carlton -7.5 @ $1.90 for $10

I am definetely going to get on

Brisbane to beat Hawthorn

&

Western Bulldogs to beat Geelong

Will probably put $200 on each just for the win.

I never screw around with line betting on AFL matches, never have and never will, seen people get burnt all too easy (after the siren goals/points, even when not affecting the outcome of the game).

Hoping to have a huge year on the AFL punt.

Can't wait.

Also there is no way Adelaide will lose to the Bombers @ 1.30

well the afl running true to form as usual
************ hell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dunno what your on about Rabbitz...Please explain!!

I got 3 out of my top 3 collects in and that makes it a certainty to have made a buck.
So that's good.I can now post a running record of how it's travelling.
It really does seem to show that you can study FORM too much.
Don't do that!..Listen to your guts.

And well done Kitch.Hope you didn't take the $1.30 ADELAIDE.
That's the trouble with the shorties.They can eat up all your hard work if they go down and add very little to it if they should win.

I mean Moeee, that i didnt pick any of the upsets and got a grand total of 1 out of 8...The Lions of course
Oh well early form
Well done with your selections
cheers

Because the type of betting I chose to use were more or less Even money type betting, then it would be assumed that a 50% strike rate is in order.Even if somebody hasn't a clue as to the Games.
As I did end up with slightly over 50% winners then it seems I know a little more than most.
But the key to making the profit is that the winners that I did select were in my Investments for the larger Stakes.
If a Punter is capable of picking 3 winners out of the top 4 selections then a Profit is guaranteed.As is 4 winners out of the top 6.
It's easy to dismiss these results as being beginners luck and expect the Profit to disintegrate in the coming weeks.
But St. Kilda and Essendon were clear winners and the Profit could have been higher as the Kangaroos only lost by a head or so prior to leading comfortably in the straight.
So it is looking forward to next week where hopefully the GUTS can continue to come good.
The slight concern now is that I rely less on the Gut Feeling and tend to look at the Form instead.
That is the good thing about making selections early before too much information is revealed.

And I found 2 Teams that have NO possible chance of winning the Premiership.
KANGAROOS and FREMANTLE

INVESTED $360
RETURNED $485
PROFIT $125
POT 34.72%

Haven't a CLUE on the Margin, but St. Kilda will beat Brisbane.Win @ $1.51 for $80
ADELAIDE are a lot better than last week.+16.5 @ $2 for $70
Essendon done well.Fremantle are CRAP.Win @ $2 for $60
CARLTON seem to enjoy winning.Win @ $2.12 for $50
Hawthorn to improve on their skills.+12.5 @ $1.91 for $40
Port Adelaide.-29.5 @ $1.91 for $30
Richmond to lose by a small amount.+13.5 @ $2 for $20
Collingwood didn't quit trying last week.+31.5 @ $2 for $10

Looking at the Odds , I couldn't understand why St. Kilda were so short.
Then me GUTS told me that someone out there must know something.
Obviously NOT!
Okay.
Lesson number one.

Don't change your mind!

I will now write down why my GUTS is saying what it's saying.
That way I won't be influenced to change my mind for no appropriate reason.

INVESTED $720
RETURNED $841.4
PROFIT $121.4
POT 16.86%

So Round 3 is on its way and here's what the GUTS is doin' at the minute.

Big Game of Collingwood versus Richmond and Fans expect to see an effort put in from the Players.
Especially the Tiger Fans.
Richmond to Lose by a small amount. $80

South Australian Derby.Don't think Port can win by very much $70

Frustrating Fremantle don't seem to have their act together.West Coast comfortably $60

Something tells me the Bulldogs can almost win against St. Kilda, but not quite.$50

Brisbane going along nicely.The Sydney Fans will put an end to that.Sydney easily $40

Geelong should have nice big heads after their win that just beg to be kicked in.
And Daniher will stand for nothing less.Melbourne by a reasonable amount $30

Carlton sure are hard to catch so You gotta go for the Bombers by some sort of reasonable Margin. $20

Kangaroos tend to play well against Hawthorn.Not here though.Hawthorn by a reasonable Margin. $10

I've found that the best and most exciting and less distressing when you lose types of Games are the ones where you are given a head start.
Because on occasions the leading team often applies the handbrake and allows the other team to score during rubbish time.
So Melbourne with a Home Ground Advantage are starting to make my guts rumble heartily with anticipation.
And also am having trouble with the SA Derby....Hard to pick either team with confidence....
And the Bulldogs are starting to make me feel ill.

Final Bets for Round 3
 

West Coast -7.5 @ $2 for $80
Melbourne +17.5 @ $2 for $70
Richmond + 8.5 @ $1.91 for $60
Sydney -16.5 @ $2 for $50
Bombers -16.5 @ $1.91 for $40
Hawthorn -11.5 @ $2 for $30
St. Kilda $20 @ $1.95
Port -3.5 @ $2 for $10

Summary toward round 4
 

Got out of Jail for the 2nd week in a row.

INVESTED $1080
RETURNED $1200.4
PROFIT $120.4
POT 11.15%

Round 4 Games in approximate order of bettability.

Adelaide.Picking up where they left off last year.Comfortable win.
Hiccup for St. Kilda in Brisbane.Back on track now for a reasonable win.
Aren't West Coast going well.Another Percentage booster.
Can't accept any more excuses for Melbourne.Fremantle easily.
If Port Adelaide let this one slip, their season is over.
Kangaroos got a lot laying on the line this week.Won't be enough though.
Richmond threw away a good lead and I imagine the same will happen again.
Hawthorn do well in Tasmania and could even knock off the Cats in a close one

Round 4 Games in approximate order of bettability.
 

Adelaide -8.5 for $80 @ $2
West Coast -31.5 for $70 @ $2
Fremantle -15.5 for $60 @ $1.91
St. Kilda -9.5 for $50 @ $2
Port Adelaide -4.5 for $40 @ $2
Hawthorn +10.5 for $30 @ $1.91
Brisbane $20 1-39 @ $2.35
Bulldogs $10 1-39 @ $2.30

4 Rounds in.
 

Back in form with the top 3 Selections getting up.

INVESTED $1440
RETURNED $1775.3
PROFIT $335.3
POT 23.29%

Early feelings on Round 5 in fancied order.
 

Hawthorn have won enough.Bulldogs by reasonable amount
Brisbane to bounce back with a reasonable win
THE ANZAC GAME.Essendon are playing well.Will win by a reasonable amount.
Poor Richmond.Huge win for the Eagles.
St. Kilda to almost bounce back.Port by very small Margin.
House of PAIN.Fremantle by reasonable amount.
Sydney by a small amount
Geelong to be frightened by the Kangaroos but just hang on for the win

ANZAC Game
 

ESSENDON by 1 to 39 for $60 @ $2.30

Bulldogs -9.5 @ $2 for $80
Brisbane win @ $1.91 for $70
Port by 1 to 39 @ $2.30 for $50
Eagles. -30.5 @ $2 for $40
Fremantle $1.90 for $30
Sydney 1 to 40 @ $2.25 for $20
Geelong 1 to 40 @ $2.30 for $10

Another poor week.
 

Fortunately the 2 Best Bets got up to save a disaster with only 3 out of the 8 Games winning.

INVESTED $1800
RETURNED $2126
PROFIT $326
POT 18.11%

Round 6

Even though the Kangaroos are winning,Sydney's style should shut them down.

Stiff last weekend for Adelaide.Would love them to have a percentage booster, but the Magpies will give them a run for their money.

Get the feeling that Carlton will do okay here and St. Kilda are their own worst enemy at the moment.St. Kilda...just!

Bulldogs try hard at Subiaco but rarely get the points.Close one for the Eagles.

Home ground advantage should just see the Lions home.

Melbourne aren't as BAD as I thought they were.THEY'RE WORSE!. Port Adelaide easily!

Geelong seem to have lost their way a little, Richmond in a photo finish.

Both Essendon and Hawthorn went down last week after playing well in some quarters.Don't like this game as a betting proposition but would think Essendon are the more capable team at the minute.

I dun dis
 

Brisbane -4.5 for $80 @ Evens
Sydney -15.5 for $70 @ Evens
Adelaide 1 to 39 for $60 @ $2.25
Bulldogs +18.5 for $50 @ Evens
St.Kilda 1 to 39 for $40 @ $2.30
Essendon 1 to 39 for $30 @ $2.25
Port Adelaide -20.5 for $20 @ Evens
Richmond +10.5 for $10 @ Evens

Turning to ******** :(
 

INVESTED $2160
RETURNED $2386
PROFIT $226
POT 10.46%

can i have a go?
i will post my results at the end of the round,

Geelong to lead at every change $4
Carlton to lead at every change $6
Essendon to lead at every change $3.80
Adelaide to lead at every change $4.25
Sydney to lead at every change $3.75
Melbourne to lead at every change $7.25
Fremantle to lead at every change $2.20
First Score Port Adelaide Goal $2.90

There's something different!
Never tried that sort of betting.
Pretty hard to use Form Analysis in those sort of bets.
Which is a GOOD thing in my opinion.
Good Luck Magic!

Round 7
 

Gonna try line betting only from now on.
And gonna put a lot less thought into it as well.
Been doing too much Form analysis and not enough Intuitive analysis

Hope it's not too late to get on the Kangaroo bandwagon.$80
Bulldogs seem to be headed for September action.$70
Collingwood are playing as good as Carlton are bad.$60
Hawthorn....almost!.$50
Adelaide to improve this week.$40
Geelong showed how good they can be last week.$30
Surely Richmond can't possibly get close to Port at AAMI?.$20
St.Kilda are back?.$10

Much better performance this week.5 out of 8.
Need to improve in deciding which games are the better bets.
Not so much the best games.Seem to be doing okay with the best bet winning 6 out of 7 rounds.
And 2nd and 3rd bets winning 4 out of 7 rounds.
It's the not so sure games that are showing nasty losses.
Will spend a bit more effort in getting the games in the right order of confidence.

INVESTED $2520
RETURNED $2826
PROFIT $306
POT 12.14%

All these are at the available line at $2.

Collingwood$ 80
West Coast $70
Brisbane $60
Adelaide $50
St.Kilda $40
Carlton $30
Sydney $20
Geelong $10

Another Disaster :(
 

INVESTED $2880
RETURNED $3026
PROFIT $146
POT 5.07%