Chuck's Tips 14.4.07
 

Great day of racing tomorrow, hoping to get out there for a few hours before i head to the Tahs & Reds (yawn). 4 great Group 1's to look forward to, hope it will be a good end to the carnival.

Race 1: Going for a bit of value here, I like 4 Sunset Run and 5 At Ease. Sunset Run should be at its peak for this one, ran a strong 3rd 1 3/4 len behind rising star Double Dare and before that won well against a similar strength field. Poor s/r over track and distance but has won twice on Dead and $9.00 prepost is nice value. At Ease is first up having won 2 twice from 4 first up runs. was great last prep, putting in some good runs against some handy opposition. Won at listed level, drawn perfectly and has a low weight - should be hard to hold out, $9.00 is again great value.

Race 2: 1 Absolutelyfabulous is clearly the class runner of the field. couldn't match it at WFA when beaten 4 len Divine Madonna, but before that was unlucky when 2nd in a Group 3 over 1200m, and held on in a listed race first up. everything suits here, deserves favouritism. Other chances are 2 Hot 'N' Ready who won by 2 1/4 len on Doncaster Monday in listed company, should get a similar run from the barrier and has won over 1300 and on a Dead track. 7 Rose of Sharon was strong when 4th behind Gold Edition in a big Gp 2 field - she backed that up with a fighting 3rd to Hot Danish and should be thereabouts

Race 3: 3 Cheeky Choice a standout here for mine, would be very happy to get anything over $3.50. 2 excellent close-up seconds so far this prep behind Malcolm and Divine Madonna, just looks too classy for this lot. For the multis, Hot Danish could run well but the price will be much too short. for value hopes, i think 5 Gawne, 11 Shirl Pegasus and 12 Danoiserie could go close

Race 4: Between 2 here, 2 Tipungwuti is obviously going to be tough to beat, coming down in class after a 4 len win. But i think 9 Upper Echelon's long awaited big victory may come here, been unlucky last couple, and is down 5 kgs on the Adrian Knox.

Race 5: 9 Camarilla will win. Had my biggest bet of the year on her last week (2yo filly on a heavy track I hear you say!!!), but i was very very confident. $1.80 is obviously rubbish, but put her on your quaddies etc.

Race 6: I like 11 He's No Pie Eater here. 2000m is his go, and if he backs up after the Derby he is the one to beat. I think 3 Group 1's in 3 weeks will be too much for Haradasun. Not doubting his ability, but stepping up in weight and distance after a couple of tough runs will be too much for him while still young. 1 Desert War and 2 Railings are the dangers.

Race 7: Sydney Cup is usually just an indication of how bad Sydney's stayers are and once again this year is no different. I've gone for 11 No Wine No Song. Has been coming home well all prep and was again excellent in the heavy last start over 2600m Gp 2. My dangers are the consistent 5Prince Arthur with the Beadman and Cummings factor on his side, and 2 Gallic the honest Adelaide Cup winner who will go close

Race 8: Looks to be a very similar field to the TJ Smith, and i've gone for 2 Bentley Biscuit and 8 Black Ink. The Biscuit is really starting to look like a genuine Gp 1 horse, is a huge chance and runs well on all surfaces. Black Ink rocketed home last start and could do the same again with the extra 200m and $12.00 is great.

Race 9: Rounding out the day 7 Mi Casa has been running very well in simliar events, drops 4 kgs on the last run and will run a strong Mile. 5 New Edge is a big lay for me

Good Luck

Good work there Chuck I just have to chip in here there is a horse I have been following at current odds it isn't great but Hot Danish will tomorrow show the class she has, been on her ever start and tomorrow will be no different it might even be my only bet for the day trust me when I say this horse isn't one they continue to gush over who will just end up an overated hack.

Tomorrow will be the beginning of a great career for her and she couldn't have landed with a better trainer in the process atleast he will take care of the horse.

Outside of that was looking to maybe just throw an all up Hot Danish, Camarilla & Prince Arthur not big odds any of them but it could end up alright if they all win anyway.

Chuck,

can't agree with your assessment of Haradasun.
Two starts back settled well back,went to sleep,then cruised down the outside to win easily.
In the Doncaster Boss was instructed to ride him on the pace,box seated,got out at the right time and won easily.
Sure the other 2 were closing,but he held them easily on the line.
My only query is the 2000mts.
Be interesting to see where Nash is told to position him.
IMO he will be ridden back this time and come over the top of them,if he can run the trip.
If he does,he's gonna be at skinny odds for the COX.
Vasil is no mug,he knows what he's got with this horse,and if his last 2 runs were "tough"he wouldn't be going around in this.
He's got more ability than the rest of them put together.
Don't think (IMO) HNPE is as good as the Rogerson "hype"would have you believe.
He couldn't blow wind up Haradasun's you know what.
That will be proven today.
Have had my biggest bet of the year on this horse with Sportsbet@2.35 fixed.
IMO great value and money for jam!

I think the Rawiller / Boss difference is a big one. Nash slaughtered Haradasun in his last two starts, riding him 3 to 4 wide the whole race as if he was on ************ Kingston Town. He's yet to face a quality stayer and especially given the trip is a big query, i think theres a chance he may struggle. Desert War will probably get his own way up front, and will be very to run down over a strong distance for him. Railings is just starting to hit some form and will definitely be therabouts. HNPE is coming back to his best distance and the if the guineas is anything to go from he will come very close. Aqua D'Amore is the first quality stayer he has met, and if she wasn't playing up in the barriers and missing the start she may have beaten him over the mile. If Haradasun keeps running all over the place, then these guys will run over the top of him (and i don't know how much control 8-wide-Nash has). He is still learning as a racehorse, and come next season i'm sure he will run out a strong 2000m, perhaps 2040m ;) but at this early stage going for three Group 1s in 15 days it will be tough (especially with his synthetic feet :D).

Don't get me wrong, i'm a big Haradasun fan, and i'm sure he will run a good race and he is in my quaddies a multis, its just the $2.25 i'm worried about.

IMO Nash doesn't deserve the caning he's got over this horse.

As you so rightly said,he's still learning,and he ran wide for Bossy on both of his wins and still won!
Nash was the one who steered him thru the"nappy"stage,and IMO he beat himself(the horse)in those early educational runs.
Vasil must think along similar lines,as he had no hesitation about putting him back on.
In to 2.10 on Sportsbet now,and I'm expecting that to trim up again,think he may even start in the red.

mate if Haradasun starts odds-on i will definitely be laying it on Betfair, its about $2.20 there at the moment, i'll be waiting a bit longer before getting off :)

Ended up with a nice collect off of Hot Danish on the day and thankfully talked myself out of the all up into the other 2 just never could truly trust Prince Arthur he is really a disappointing horse.

it was a tough days punting the old man managed to snag Stellamac in the 2nd at what was enormous odds for it's form it was 5 times what it should have started at he then managed to land the trifecta in Hot Danishs race and stopped punting for the day there with a very large profit on the day.

I missed the Champagne and QE stakes :( Can anyone tell me about the races. Did Camarilla have any excuses? How far did Desert War win by etc..

i ended up in profit at the end of the day thanks to Gallic and the Bentley/Black Ink exacta

All the way winner. Haradasun was giving Desert War 6 lens start in the middle stages but closed the gap quickly as the field headed into the straight.
Got on terms with Desert War but then drifted out to the middle of the track before eventually finishing on the outside fence. Desert War won by just over 2 lens in the end.

Camarilla galloped on nearing the 1200m causing the filly to lose a plate and then in the straight when she was about to be unleashed, Arlington shifted out abruptly in front of her, and Camarilla copped a severe bump from which she never recovered.

Looks like 9 wide Nash didn't have much control after all :D

so it sounds like desert war was just rattling off cheap sectionals making it impossible for harada to catch it.

very annoying about Camarilla (cost me the quaddie!!!) she will be a star next prep. she seems very much in the mnemosyne mould (but better :p)

Hope you had a good win on Hot Danish Raw!