I've recently been going through each Sat Metro winner and writing down all it's characteristics and form against the rest of the field when i realised that a lot of long priced winners have good form except for there last start where they flopped.

So i started looking for horses which had won their 2nd last start , but finished 5th or worst last start.

Using just 3 rules:

(1) No races restricted to 3YO's.
(2) Must have raced within 200m of current distance in at least one of its last two starts.
(3) Must have had at least 3 starts from a spell.

This is what it came up with in the last 5 weeks:

August 10 ,

Mr Platinum - UNP.
Night Raider - 1st , $16.90 , $4.50.
Rocky Glen - UNP.

August 17 ,

Friendly Seas - UNP.
Oakfield King - UNP.
Century Kid - 1st , $4.30 , $1.50.
Sportsbrat - UNP.
Sovereign Ties (HURDLE) - UNP.
Aragonce - 3rd , $3.90.
My Lavinia - UNP.
Monde Special - 3rd , $5.50.
Frenzal Rhomb - 3rd , $2.10.
Yusra - UNP.
So Say All Of Us - UNP.
Grumans - 1st , $36.20 , $8.70.
Banyan Bay - 1st , $37.10 , $8.30.

August 24 ,

Outlaws - UNP.
Desert Brigadier - 1st , $7.40 , $2.60.
Kurt - 3rd , $1.30.
Skewiff - 3rd , $1.50.
Cold Start - UNP.
Credentials - UNP.

August 31 ,

Gamesman - 1st , $13.90 , $4.20.
Go Errol - UNP.
Brantwood Manor - 1st , $17.30 , $4.80.
Fouardee - 1st $11.80 , $3.40.
Etoile Bleue - UNP.
Court Of Jewels - 2nd $3.10.
Exceptional Chance (HURDLE) - 1st , $6.50 , $3.20.
Fabio Pennachio - UNP.
Danes Reward - 2nd , $15.10.
Cubiton - 2nd , $1.50.
Court Hero - UNP.
Sovereign Echo - 3rd , $3.10.
Olongopo - 1st , $7.20 , $2.30.
Baitenhausen - 2nd , $3.50.
Jezarich - UNP.
Narwhal - UNP.
Paris Heartbeat - UNP.

September 7 ,

Pristine Partners - UNP.
Platinum Scissors - 2nd , $2.90.
Mister Pom - UNP.
Crimson Gem - 3rd , $8.10.
Sophistocat - UNP.
Rubitano - 2nd , $1.60.
As You Do - UNP.
Boogie Nights - 3rd , $3.70.
Grand Mansion - UNP.

WIN ONLY ,
Invest - $48.
Return - $158.60.
Profit - $110.60.
POT - 230.4%

EACH WAY ,
Invest - $96.
Return - $259.
Profit - $163.
POT - 169.7%.

Only 5 weeks of results which doesn't mean much , but surely a plan with plenty of potential.

With added filters this could be a little gem of a plan.

Any comments or suggestions?

Very, very interesting. You look like you're onto a gem there!

I have run your basic rules over the past 12 months with one exception.Last start only +/- 200.results as follows:-
Meetings considered : 223
Races selected : 343
Horses selected : 417
- Number that won : 33
- Strike Rate/Race : 9.6%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 7.9%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 26.6%
Return at $1/Seln. : $409.70
- Average Win Div. : $12.42
- Absolute Profit : $-7.30
- Profit on Turnover: -1.8%

I then added:-
1) 1100/2000m
2) good track only
3) age 4 years plus
4) Last start 9/36 days
5) Last start SP maximum 16/1

Past 12 months results as follows :-
PS. The Tri - ex and quinella results are for my infomation only when I couple the selection with other horses rated from my program.

Not bad for such a low strike rate.......

Cheers.....

I have run your basic rules over the past 12 months with one exception.Last start only +/- 200.results as follows:-
Meetings considered : 223
Races selected : 343
Horses selected : 417
- Number that won : 33
- Strike Rate/Race : 9.6%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 7.9%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 26.6%
Return at $1/Seln. : $409.70
- Average Win Div. : $12.42
- Absolute Profit : $-7.30
- Profit on Turnover: -1.8%

I then added:-
1) 1100/2000m
2) good track only
3) age 4 years plus
4) Last start 9/36 days
5) Last start SP maximum 16/1

Past 12 months results as follows :-
PS. The Tri - ex and quinella results are for my infomation only when I couple the selection with other horses rated from my program.

Meetings considered : 223
Races selected : 149
Horses selected : 173
- Number that won : 20
- Strike Rate/Race : 13.4%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 11.6%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 31.2%
Return at $1/Seln. : $314.30
- Average Win Div. : $15.72
- Absolute Profit : $141.30
- Profit on Turnover: 81.7%

TRIFECTA QUINELLA EXACTA PLACE
Outlay ($) : 3960.00 905.00 915.00 168.00
- Races WITH bets : 149 149 149 144
- Races WITH collect: 9 27 15 48
- Strike Rate/Race : 6.0% 18.1% 10.1% 33.3%
Return at $1/seln ($) : 11104.00 2176.70 3001.20 190.30
- Absolute $ Profit : 7144.00 1271.70 2086.20 22.30
- Profit on Turnover: 180.4% 140.5% 228.0% 13.3%

Note: 1 selection found without results

Test Duration = 00:07:37



Not bad for such a low strike rate.......

Cheers.....

Enjay... what software do you use to test your system? (If you don't mind me asking :smile: )

HI Testa,

I am just about to run your system over the past 3 years...up to July this year.
However I noticed that you included Fouardee in your results @ $11.80. He was first up on 31/8 (after 84 day break). Isn't one rule that the horse must have had at least three runs from a spell?

Shy....

Price Predictor Pro Gold v2.

Can do wonders with it. I have data back to 1999. In fact I will shortly run this system over that period. Keep watching it willonly take about 10 minutes,,,,,
enjay....

I have run the test back to 18/9/99.
Still very low strike rate but acceptable POT. Very long run of outs would cruel the best of players....

Meetings considered : 487
Races selected : 315
Horses selected : 370
- Number that won : 37
- Strike Rate/Race : 11.7%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 10.0%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 29.7%
Return at $1/Seln. : $485.70
- Average Win Div. : $13.13
- Absolute Profit : $115.70
- Profit on Turnover: 31.3%

TRIFECTA QUINELLA EXACTA PLACE
Outlay ($) : 8448.00 1926.00 1954.00 365.00
- Races WITH bets : 315 315 315 310
- Races WITH collect: 18 52 27 104
- Strike Rate/Race : 5.7% 16.5% 8.6% 33.5%
Return at $1/seln ($) : 14977.00 3139.00 3823.80 348.50
- Absolute $ Profit : 6529.00 1213.00 1869.80 -16.50
- Profit on Turnover: 77.3% 63.0% 95.7% -4.5%

Note: 4 selections found without results

Cheers.......enjay

I have run the test back to 18/9/99.
Still very low strike rate but acceptable POT. Very long run of outs would cruel the best of players....

Meetings considered : 487
Races selected : 315
Horses selected : 370
- Number that won : 37
- Strike Rate/Race : 11.7%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 10.0%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 29.7%
Return at $1/Seln. : $485.70
- Average Win Div. : $13.13
- Absolute Profit : $115.70
- Profit on Turnover: 31.3%

TRIFECTA QUINELLA EXACTA PLACE
Outlay ($) : 8448.00 1926.00 1954.00 365.00
- Races WITH bets : 315 315 315 310
- Races WITH collect: 18 52 27 104
- Strike Rate/Race : 5.7% 16.5% 8.6% 33.5%
Return at $1/seln ($) : 14977.00 3139.00 3823.80 348.50
- Absolute $ Profit : 6529.00 1213.00 1869.80 -16.50
- Profit on Turnover: 77.3% 63.0% 95.7% -4.5%

Note: 4 selections found without results

Cheers.......enjay

Sorry Osulldj , didn't notice Foaurdee had that amount of time away , in the formguide i was using it didn't indicate a spell , but you are quite right , Fouardee should not have been a selection.

Enjay , thanks for the results.

Quite right about the low strike rate , but as long as the POT stays how it is , it could be a very profitable system especially with a good staking plan.

O.K. O.K. Who hacked into my computer - own up!

:eek: :eek: :eek:

Your plan is very similar to mine only I apply completely different filters to come up with a strike rate of roughly 25% but average dividend of around $8.00.

If you look into the unobvious rather than the obvious you will find that you don't get the horrid runs of outs.

Tip: Look at class, interupted preparations (e.g. break of 30 days or more indicating illness etc.) and lengths from winner.

You are indeed onto something there but the races considered, distance and age of horse are overshadowed by the class of the horse and class of the race.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-12 01:19 ]

Equine Investor can you tell me what filters you use.
ConstantineDblc@aol.com

enjay. You say you can do wonders with Price predictor I am a complete Amateur do you think it would be worth me puchasing it. With thanks
Amateur

I really miss the RaceQuest site... you could apply your own filters and get a selection list for the day very quickly without having to import expensive form. My method is very restrictive and all the software I've seen so far require me to purchase form for every meeting, every day with only a handful of selections resulting. I'm only a small time punter so this is not financially viable. I've also not been able to find a program that can handle different beaten margin limits on different past starts. Anyone come across anything suitable out there?

Sorry EI , this is starting to become a habit of mine , thats the second time i've unearthed a plan very similar to another forum regular.

Maybe i should start emailing everyone before i post another plan to make sure i'm not giving away someone elses plan.

Thanks for the tips also , will go back and check it out and post the new selections and filters later , unless you would prefer me not to just in case it's to similiar to your own plan , which i don't have a problem with.

TESTAROSSA,

Feel free to work on it and refine it as much as you like. The aim of the game is to come out a winner, so I have no problem if you can find some additional filters.

I don't think we would come up with exactly the same selections as my system has a lot of flexible filters.

Here is a copy of the reply I emailed amateur earlier which may help further....

"amateur,

I can't tell you exactly what filters I use as everyone would come up with my longshot winners.

However, I can guide you in the right direction with some more information.

I have researched thousands of HORSES racing and training patterns and can tell you that there will always be exceptions to every rule, but there are trends and patterns which emerge.

1. Initial horse selection is critical.
Horses which have WON in todays class or above in it's career often have a habit of popping up at any old odds even though recent form may be below average.

2. Spells and breaks between runs.
Horses first-up are rarely good value.
Many do win first-up as two or three year olds but come back next preparation needing a few runs before hitting top form as they are older. The older a horse gets, usually the longer it takes to find best form. (again there are exceptions, but look at Northerly this time in. - surely poor value at even money first up!!!).

If a horse has more than 30 day break between runs, even during a preparation, not necessarily a spell, it usually indicates illness or injury. These horses rarely perform up to their best after such a break. They normally have to restart and regain fitness all over again.

3.Each preparation you only know a horse is truely fit when it has WON!
I only consider horses to bet on when they have won this time in.
Some very good horses never regain their very best form ever again! These horses cost you money.

I do not consider distance, track etc as if the horse has the PROVEN ability (CLASS) and has won this preparation, then it is usually value. Nobody can predict with any accuracy whether the distance suits the horse as their patterns of racing change from year to year.

I hope this helps you,
I don't mean to dodge the issue, but I did share some information with someone recently and noticed the odds tumble from 20/1 into 8/1 on many of my selections.

If you use my information as a general guideline, you will find horses at good odds and good value who are fit and have proven ability regardless of one or two bad runs which may have been bad luck rather than ability to win today's race.

Regards,
Equine Investor."


Bear in mind it takes a lot less money bet to shorten long-priced winners than it does to shorten even a 5/1 chance. That is why I haven't given EXACT filters, but you should get the general idea and maybe like to refine it further.

It should be noted that these are only my opinions and many may disagree, I don't have hard and fast statistics to offer, they were only my observations of trends and patterns.
It does work for me but over a long period of time ...I.E. months. You can't expect to win every meeting or even every week and still get longshot winners. Sometimes you get lucky and have a day where three or four will pop up, other times you can go through weeks of frustration. That's why my filters are flexible and get winners between odds-on and 75/1. Keeps the interest up in between droughts.

Regards.


[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-12 15:42 ]

For the information of Shy and Amateur and any other members of this forum.

The form use is completely reliable and comprehensive and costs a mere $20 odd dollars a month for unlimited downloads every day of the week. This form is easily extracted into my program. As of this moment I have all Saturday and Sunday form and have already run it through my system selector, and actually have my selections for this coming weekend. Contact me at sabu57@hotmail.com and I will give you further information.

I should have mentioned Amateur, I would not suggest or recommend that you purchase what I have, however if you contact me I will give you the address and you can make up your own mind by reading all about it and if necessary contacting the principal who is very helpful. I might add that you have the oportunity of downloading FREE OF CHARGE a very early version of the program but it is workable and I think from memory you can download the form files and do certain manipulations with this free version.

Cheers .....

Enjay,

I hate to say it but I think there's a major glitch in your system. Your first post showed apparent results for the last 12 months and said 343 races and 417 selections. In another post you said you ran the results back to 9/99 yet the races were only 315 and the selections, actually 370, less than the 12 month period. This doesn't make sense???? If there were 417 selections for 12 months there should have been about tripple that for 3 years. The results also look a bit out of whack to me.

Testa..... I ran your system from Mar 99 to end June 2003. It had 1795 selections for 158 winners, a 8.8% strike rate and a loss at level stkes of 15.3% using NSW TAB dividends. Probably the worse thing though was the longest losing run which was a massive 72 selections.

While the idea may have merit, I can see that some of your rules are backfitted and thats why it doesn't hold up over unseen data. For example, what's the racing logic behind excluding 3YO races?

I analysed the results by favourite rank and they all lost pretty much the same amount. Interesting enough though, favourites who matched your rules only won 25% of the time for a 23% loss on level stakes.

It may in fact be a good system for identifying false favourites (rather than winners, regardless of the price).

Hope this helps.

osulldj was June 2003 a typo or can you send me all the results up to June 2003!!!

:grin:

Seriously, with regard to enjay's post, I think he treated the further test separately and didn't add it to the total results.

Yes, it would show a loss at level stakes because the filters are unrefined. Concentrating on favourites only as a rule (in my opinion only) means that usually you are getting poor value OR your bets would be very sparse. If you keep backing favourites it is very hard to get overlays. With a system like this, overlays come on horses with inherent class and ability who are fit but have recently run average races due to either the way the race was run, interference etc.

Let me give you some examples of huge overlays I have gotten and how they became selections.

1. Citichy - Ramornie Handicap 17/07/02

Placed in Listed Races
Won over the distance
Won in today's class or higher
Won this preparation
Won Group 3 race in it's career
50% place strike rate

Result won by a nose paying $78.20 S-TAB.

2. Sports

Multiple Group 1 winner
Multiple Group 2 winner
Multiple Group 3 winner
Multiple Listed race winner
50% place strike rate
Won on the track
Previously won carrying today's weight.

WON by a nose paying $30.30 (S-TAB)

Just two examples of great overlays.

Hi EI,

Gee....even shocked myself predicting the results to June 03 :smile: ...The winner of the 03 Cox Plate will be.....oops better keep it a secret.

ok back to serious now. Even if Ejay didn't add the 12 months results to his check back to 99 it still doesn't make sense. If there were 400 or so selections in one year...the other two years then only had 370? Even if we look at Testa's 4 week sample, you can see that there are a stack of bets each week.

Either way, the results for the 39 months to June 02 are as shown 8.8% strike and 15% loss, longest losing run of 72...ouch.

I think your approach in identifying genuine overlays highlighted by your two examples is a fine example for anyone looking to learn to improve their chance of finishing in front in this game.

A colleague of a friend of mine makes a steady living from the punt by identifying horses that have the ability to win but are starting at greater than natural odds. Natural basically means as if he horse had an even chance of winning. If there are 10 horses in a field then natural odds would be 10-1. 12 horses in a field would be 12-1 and so on. In terms of identifying the ability to win he has his own process around speed and fitness but that closley correlates to the factor you hinted on EI, and that is CLASS! Class horses often bob up at fantastic odds despite other factors such as form, distance, barrier and weight saying they can't win. The brave punters who ignore these factors and concentrate on class continue to reap the rewards.

osulldj.........Please read my postings carefully.. I do not have a glitch in my program. First posting relates to rules as specified.
I then added filters eg. dist , days etc and made another posting for [past 12 months.
Then I ran it back to 1999 WITH THE FILTERS AS SPECIFIED.......which reduced figures markedly........

Enjay.

interesting regarding overlays (citichy and sports)
todays listed runners were 3 in cairns anakie walk mister obliging bushra gem
and canberra benmanang and il don
backed the 5 of them. anakie walk paid $17.90 win and $6 odd for place benmenang paid $4.70 win
i mention it because there is some merit in well placed horses with some talent.

Absolutely topsy99 as long as you place filters, not necessarily related to last run or two!

Hi Enjay,

I must apologise for misinterpreting your follow up post, no offence intended. I did see that you created / backfitted some rules to provide a much improved result and didn't realise your following post was based on the modified rather than original system.

Again, please accept my apologies.

Thanks osulldj.
I will run some further elinminations, for interest sake, and see what pans out.

CHeers......

I should mention that if any member wants to check out the program I use, you can read all about it and download a workable version free of charge at :-

http://www.capitalinfo.com.au/

The site is well worth a look...

Good punting.......